There is a BPIX poll in tomorrow’s Mail on Sunday which has topline figures of CON 31%(-7), LAB 28%(-3), LDEM 32%(+12). That’s the biggest drop for Conservatives so far, and the biggest surge for the Lib Dems – and it puts the Liberal Democrats up in first place. The Lib Dems were in equal first place in a poll back in 2003, but I think you need to go back to around 1982 to find polls with them (or their predecessor parties) consistently in first place (Update – Tom in the comments has flagged up one poll from 1985 that had the Alliance ahead)

As with ComRes today and YouGov yesterday, all three parties are within 4 or 5 points of each other, so realistically if the polls remain like this it shouldn’t be a surprise to see polls with any of the three parties in the lead.

There is also a OnePoll survey in the People, that shows CON 27%, LAB 23%, LDEM 33%. I have still not confirmed whether these polls have any proper attempt at sampling or political weighting, and would treat it with great scepticism.

There is at least YouGov still to come tonight.


73 Responses to “BPIX put Lib Dems in the lead”

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  1. There was a poll in 1985 that put the Alliance in first place. Ironically, it might have had the exact same figures. Not sure if I can find it right now, though.

  2. Continuing the theme

    The MoS poll 31/28/32

    Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says

    Con 230 (net 22 gains)
    Lab 274
    LD 120

    LAB short 58 of majority

    If the Volcano had not erupted this surge would have been wall-to-wall: I wonder what that would have done…

  3. Oh..My.God.

    Me and my big mouth!

    The guy did well ofcourse but that big a jump. I hardly know a single thing about his policies![…] On the other hand, I expect many Liberal supporters expexting that their leader will thrash Labour out of existance and return to the times of Gladstone, Campbell-Bannerman and Asquith!

  4. Tom – found it. MORI in September 1985. CON 30%, LAB 33%, Alliance 35%.

  5. Incredible. Even as a Lib Dem supporter I find it unlikely that this will hold until 6th May as so much can still happen with 2 debates. Anything in the high 20’s will be a great result and any more than that would be amazing.

    Another great looser from this election seems to be FPTP. Even if the Lib Dems finish last they will probably have the political clout to demand PR as a condition of any support. And if they come 2nd or 1st but still have vastly fewer seats I think the public outcry would be so great that the government would have absolutely no choice but to put PR to a referendum.

    Does anybody see any outcomes where we are still using FPTP next time around?

  6. YouGov for the weekend just out :

    CON : 33%
    LAB : 30%
    LIB : 29%

    UNS gives

    LAB : 287 (39 short)
    CON : 239
    LIB : 93

    There’s a wee chinese man somewhere peeing himself laughing … something to do with “interesting times”…

  7. OK for the doubters –

    -The LibDems are riding a huge wave of hope that is glimmering – “Could they really be different, are they really an alternative”

    -People are disillusioned with the other tow.

    – Students and first time voters are saying in huge numbers that they will now vote Lib Dem

    – Undecideds are now saying in huge numbers that they will vote LibDem.

    -Lib Dems have the momentum

    – Labour are encouraging them all the way, because unless Clegg hit’s 40% or more, Lab will be largest party in a hung parliament.

    I could go on, and I’m not saying the surge won’t fail (how could I possibly know) but I AM saying it could be real.

  8. When ‘the thick of it’ do their next series anchored around a general election they are going to be able to have massive fun with this ‘third party surge’ event- whether it is temporary or carry’s on all the way to D Day.

    Imagine some of the characters we have got to love and how they could be portrayed as responding.

    Plus I wonder who will be cast as the ‘LD’ campaign team.

    I can’t wait for that either :-)

  9. is you gov confirmed?

    can we get exact %?

  10. “YouGov for the weekend just out :

    CON : 33%
    LAB : 30%
    LIB : 29%”

    Anthony???

  11. Labour -1 since the debate…………….

  12. Yes, Rob, yes Sue, yes Martin, yes, Yes YES!

    May you live in interesting times? We are, friends, we are.

  13. Stunning… I could never have imagined this political campaign becoming so thoroughly revolutionary. Yes, the Alliance did well in the 1980s, but *not* just a few weeks before an election. Since when have the 2 main parties ever been under so much pressure?

    It feels as if there is a movement propelling towards the LibDems now. Snowballing maybe. Even the media is picking up on it – papers like the Telegraph have actually been able to find something non-negative to say about the Lib Dems.

  14. I signed off yesterday evening with a somewhat sarcastic post (sincere apologies Howard, if you are around) about 30 – 30 – 30. Bloody hell.

  15. I might have mocked the Lib Dems in the past before, but now I see they are a bit more serious. I don’t think that Nick Clegg however will “break the mould of British politics.” The maths are against him and there are too many tribal Labour supporters. However, with sucsess comes scrutiny.

  16. Tories looked deflated here in Newton Abbot today.

    Lib Dems buoyant.

    The British, thank goodness, are preparing to give the good old LD’s the chance & opprtunity to serve

  17. Graham,

    “90 minutes of finely tuned waffle”.

    Yes mate, but who does the public think delivered it, eh?

  18. according to the swingometer – we need these % votes to get equal seats…….who would have thought it possible?

    Con 31% 204 seats
    Lab 25% 207 seats
    LIB DEM 38% 206 seats

  19. ….and now this YG Poll:

    33/30/29

    Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says

    Con 244
    Lab 284
    LD 90

    Labour 42 short of a majority

    Amazing two days of polling. Quite amazing.

  20. Don’t anyone get so carried away that they think NC will be the next prime minister. I’m afraid he won’t. But for the first time I am beginning to seriously believe that Cameron won’t either.

  21. Jamie – I think it will take approx. 2 or 3 years to get the legislation through considering debate time, refendum, and then debate again, followed by bringing the chosen PR system in, so the only way I would see FPTP being used in the next election is if it took place before 2014.

    That is my understanding of the likely timetable anyway.

  22. **********on political betting************

    “Some one has posted a rumour figure for YouGov on Twitter. Ignore.”- 19:47 post

  23. The numbers i got were from the Guardian blog… can’t obviouslly vouch for them myself.

  24. is it possible?

  25. Irish Observer,

    What is the lowest LD percentage share (and parallel low figures for the other two) that will make them largest party? (Always acknowledging that this is pure UNS with no marginals, tactical voting etc. factored in of course.)

  26. “Labour are wooing the Lib Dems because the party’s strategists have “pretty much given up any hope of winning an overall majority””

    The above quote came from the BBC.

    I reckon a Lib Dem-Con coalition is odds on. I think it’s unlikely that the Lib Dems will form a coalition with such an unpopular Labour party (and leader), as it would surely reflect badly on them if they share office IMHO.

  27. Rob Sheffield – you disappoint me, I was harbouring a nice little illusion that you were in fact Malcolm Tucker ;)

  28. What do others think?

  29. @Rob Sheffield
    Only 7 mins to wait for the official YouGov…

    Will keep a beady eye on SkyNews

  30. There’s so much to SAY. The lead between the main two (if indeed there are still a main two!!) has been 3,4,and 5 today!!

  31. Cameron needs to hammer a “Vote Clegg get Brown” message and hammer it hard

  32. And, with such a seismic shift, remarkable consistency from all the pollsters

  33. This could be the deceased Russian’s finest hour.

    Can’t wait for Angus Reid – they’ll probably have Lab in single figures but still winning the election on UNS.

  34. Poll of polls now 29/34/26/ lab, con lib

  35. Conservatives in the lead on 33% (down four), the Liberal Democrats on 30% (up eight) and Labour on 28 (down three).- Sky News

  36. While we wait: just a thought.

    If this Cameron crisis/ meltdown continues short of knifing him the only possible option seems to be to go nuclear:

    a referendum on the UK’s place in Europe……..

  37. I put the average from the last 5 polls reported in Electoral Calculus, the swing from 2005 to Lib Dems from Labour and Conservatives, left the swing from Lib Dems to Labour blank and got:

    Con – 211
    Lab – 254
    Lib – 153

  38. @ Matt

    It might backfire on Labour and the Lib Dems could also reject an offer by the Tories as well.
    It is possible that if Labour is the largest party in a hung parliament, the Lib Dems could offer support to the Tories if Labour are in third place of the votes. We might see a Ramsey Macdonnald situation with the Tories instead. Or, we could see a 1918 situation with the Lib Dems in a Tory controlled Coalition.
    Vince Cable for Chancellor anyone?

  39. Could someone explain what % the LIB DEM would need to get an overall majority… im seeing people batting them low numbers of MPs even with 33% of the vote..

    so what % would they need to get to get overall majority on their own ?

    I’m think perhaps 40-41%

  40. Hubby calls the elections on the Wives – Clegg, Brown, Cameron

  41. ian kemp

    LAST nights

  42. @mitz

    Well if the following figures were to ring true…you would get your LIB DEM clear victory….possible?

    Con 30% 196 seats
    Lab 24% 195 seats
    Lib Dem 38% 226 seats

    others a very low 6% assumes surge to Lib Dem

  43. @Ian Kemp

    “Conservatives in the lead on 33% (down four), the Liberal Democrats on 30% (up eight) and Labour on 28 (down three).- Sky News”

    That was last night’s figures.

  44. @ROB SHEFFIELD

    Oops – sorry !

  45. I think that part of it’s contagious. People have supported Lib Dem policies in the past, but not voted for them because they didn’t think anyone else would. Following the debates, the polls, the disillusion with the other two, and the way people can see the reactions on social media – that’s suddenly become much less of an issue.

  46. @Matt

    If the Lib Dems were seen to be doing a deal with the tories they’d lose almost all their core supporters. They are enough fundamental differences for it just not to be a possibility.

    Ultimately Gordon’s “i agree with Nick” stuff wasn’t just a tactical ploy, they actually do share plenty of common ground.

    But in government it’s harder to push through good policies because of the fickle voters!

  47. Would be interesting to see the marginal now i.e. the ones that count. Previous indications show that Labour was doing a bit worse in these, but who knows anymore?

  48. @Ian Kemp
    That was yesterday’s YouGov. They still don’t have today’s figures up.

  49. YouGov – Con Lab Lib 33/30/29 NEW THREAD

  50. The excellent Andrew Neill’s blog on BBC is fascinating. He sees this as a watershed, whatever the result, and I think he studies politics fairly seriously.

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