The Scotsman carries a new Ipsos-MORI poll on voting intentions in Scotland (the report mentions changes from an earlier Ipsos-MORI poll three months ago, though I was not previously aware of this).

The topline figures for voting intention in the Scottish Parliament constituency elections, with changes from the last elections in 2003, are CON 15%(-1.6%), LAB 28%(-6.6%), LDEM 19%(+3.7%), SNP 30%(+6.2%). The figures for the regional vote are CON 16%(+0.5%), LAB 26%(-3.3%), LDEM 19%(+7.2%), SNP 28%(+7.1%), GRN 6%(-0.7%), SSP 1%(-5.7%). The Scotsman suggests this would translate into about 40 seats for both Labour and the SNP in the Scottish Parliament.

Voting intentions in Westminster are briefly mentioned in the text, but there are no proper figures. I’ll add these once they appear on MORI’s website.

UPDATE – the full figures are now up on MORI’s website here. Note that unlike most other political polls this is a genuine random sample – phone polls are really random, since some people don’t have phones and some degree of quota sampling is sometimes used in selecting which person in a household to interview. This poll was conducted by drawing addresses randomly from across Scotland and then visiting that house repeatedly to try and arrange an interview. This should be very solid data. On the downside, it does still use MORI’s overly harsh filter by only those certain to vote…normally this is cancelled out by the tendency for non-politically weighted samples to be biased towards Labour and MORI end up in line with other pollsters. A sample collected using this method though should be highly representative to start with, so the harsh turnout filter may serve to under-represent the Labour vote.


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