Two of Sunday’s polls have already been released – a new poll by ComRes for the Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 31%(-4), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 29%(+8). This was conducted yesterday and today, and is very much in line with the YouGov figures yesterday, showing a surge in support for the Liberal Democrats following the leaders’ debate, pushing them ahead of Labour into second place.

There is also new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph which has topline figures of CON 34%(-3), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 27%(+7). The fieldwork dates are very interesting here – Wednesday and Thursday. The Sunday Telegraph article says the “majority” of the fieldwork was done before the debate, I can only assume it was a large majority, unless ICM do their fieldwork quite late at night! Anyway, most of the shift in ICM’s poll can’t be attributed to the effect of the debate, but rather the publicity around the Lib Dem manifesto launch (remember YouGov’s poll immediately before the debate also showed a 4 point jump for the Lib Dems on the back of their manifesto).

In both cases (as well as YouGov yesterday) both of the main parties have declined as the Lib Dems have surged, but in all cases the Conservatives have lost more support than Labour.


177 Responses to “ComRes and ICM show Lib Dems on the rise”

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  1. Millions of words are yet to be spoken between now and D day. Government may need to deal with a crisis provoked by a volcano or two. Economic data yet to come.

  2. Amber Star

    “Yes – but the LDs will still only get about 3 seats in Scotland, I’d say. ”

    Have you taken Pictland out of Scotland?

    Orkney & Shetland
    Caithness & Sutherland
    Ross Skye & Lochaber
    Fife NE

    are all nailed on LD seats. Are you seriously suggesting that they will lose one of these and all their others?

  3. May 6th

    \labour 34%
    tory 36%
    yellow 22%
    :) :)

  4. @Sue Marsh (6.01 pm)

    “However, I have to say, do you honestly think the LibDem surge is down to policy detail? ”

    Sue,
    4% YG & 7?% ICM following the manifesto launch IMHO indicates a big boost from the manifesto. This surely is due to the number of specific policy details particularly wrt to costings etc. Nick obviously built on this during the debate highlighting all the detail in the LD manifesto cf Lab & Con.

  5. So Labour are saying to its supporters it’s safe to vote Lib Dem?

    This is a terrible policy for them. One of their most effective attacks on the Tories has been that the Tories would have carried out at least the same policies that led to the recession (deregulation etc.) and are not therefore credible in challenging Labour’s handling of the economy pre-2008.

    They are now faced with a party whose policies are endorsed by themselves *and* who have huge credibility on the economy as a result of Vince Cable’s foresight.

    Why should anyone now choose Labour over the LDs?

  6. @PeterBell
    @Sue Marsh (6.01 pm)

    “However, I have to say, do you honestly think the LibDem surge is down to policy detail? ”

    The momentum began before the manifesto launch.

  7. @Leslie
    “Why should anyone now choose Labour over the LDs?”

    Read my preceding post

  8. @Greengrass

    “Read my preceding post”

    I did – are you agreeing or disagreeing with me?!

  9. Long foretold, long last
    short notice, soon past.
    (for reading a barometer)
    (was it Old Nat who said something simmilar?)
    Read that either way. Feedback loop (Gray), or viccisitudes of Xfactor/24hr news/polling/viral format.(too many to mention)

    But if Clegg proves to be another politician, like the other two (D Pierson), and political differences remain relatively intractible, it could lead to greater disillusionment next time around.

  10. It’s hard to see Tory support drpping below 37% on the day, as the 40% previous levels of support were presumably created from people who can’t stand the thought of another five years of Gordon. Now wit them at 37%, the higher the LibDem share, the better – with both at around 25%, DC is home an dry.

    I agree with the previous poster who says that the Tory defections will prove temporary, the Labour ones permanent. Overall, the LibDem surge may be a blessing in disguise for DC.

  11. Interesting times! I think this is the 18th GE in my lifetime, and until a few weeks ago, I thought it was the least interesting of the 16 I could remember. There was general disillusionment with a tired Labour Government, and a tired PM, but no great enthusiasm for the Tories. Add the expenses scandal ….why bother voting? Only good for UKIP and the BNP.

    Certainly no 1997 feel, or even 1964, when many Tory voters were quite excited at the prospect of a new government.

    Suddenly we have a contest and all bets are off.

  12. @Amber

    ** BTW. AL J, SUE & I have always said, “If Labour can’t win, we’d rather be Yellow than Blue”**

    Just incase you need it -I endorse your comment – Red -Yellow -Green is my scene lol in that order ;-)
    and WSPA if they ever stood ;-)

  13. And BPIX has the Libs in the lead. These polls are good fun but only that. All the Libs do is help the Tories win. Does anybody seriously think a pro Euro party will damage the Cons more than Labour?

    Actually, probably many on here will believe it. They’ll believe anything.

    The media love this. But then the media told us 20m people would watch the debate. The polls told us 30m would watch.

    It was all nonesense of course. Just like these polls. By this time next week we’ll be back to normal polling.

  14. Clegg has given a way for people to vote for New Labour, rather than Gordon Brown. Voters know next to nothing about his policies, and certainly have not taken notice of his manifesto. Instead they see him as someone authentic and coherent. He may win.

  15. Im patiently waiting for a YouGov

    35/29/28 T-R-L

  16. @ Sunbeam,

    So you obviously know better? And your evidence is?

  17. Is OnePoll a vaguely reasonable outfit? Over at another site I saw a tweet re a poll for the Sunday People…

    BREAKING NEWS: The People: Lib Dems 33% Tories 27% Lab 23%. OnePoll questioned 3,715 voters Thur-Sat

  18. Sunbeam – probably, but let us just keep calm and get through these choppy waters by doing what we have to do, I am sure that is the best way forward.

  19. @Leslie
    “I did – are you agreeing or disagreeing with me?!”

    You were asking a question. If it was meant to be a statement, I disagree. (and by the way, when I said “preceding post” I meant preceding your original question.

  20. Was out delivering leaflets in Carshalton and Wallington for Lib Dems today (am actually a tad sunburnt now – need to get out of the cave more often!). Got accosted by a hardcore Labour voter on the St Helier estate who tore up the leaflet when I told him who it was from.

    Then had an good chat with the fellow (turned out he actually lives in Waterloo and will be voting for Kate Hooey). He stated ‘Well they got us into this mess, they can damn well get us out’ but interestingly he stated that he also thought Clegg won the debate and that if he lived in Carshalton and Wallington would probably vote Lib Dem. We parted on good terms :-)

    I certainly think the current polls will encourage Labour supporters to switch to Lib Dem candidates in their marginals with the Tories. Anecedotally my impression is that it is also inspiring more activity amongst Lib Dem supporters as morale is boosted and a real opportunity for changing British politics looks like a possibility. Certainly pro-Lib Dem activity on Facebook and other social networking sites seems to be gaining momentum if Tom Brake’s Facebook page is anything to go by!

    Time will tell if it can be sustained! Once the cart starts rolling downhill it can be hard to stop (or control).

  21. Two more polls will be released shortly.

    The Mail on Sunday has Lib Dem 32%, Con 31%, Lab 27%.

    This is from a twitter feed so NOT reliable. Will be confirmed soon.

    There’s also a rumour that The People has Lib Dems 33%, Con 27%, Labour 23%.

  22. Amber and Sue
    As things stand, congrats on winning the 2010 general election.
    Nobody has responded to my explanation but I dare someone to give me a better explanation than mine as to how we got to the ICM result *before* note *before* the Thursday night Debate.

    Bill Roy
    I realise that your hunch was just that since you have no specific reasons that can account for the change which, in part, (not the Tory hold) came about. Bask in the glow of that prediction anyway!

  23. Onepoll —– kylie returns :)

  24. Rob Sheffield – your figures mean Brown is PM with a rather low section of the vote.

    I’d suggest his offer of AV (as an opening negotiation position) might guarantee his position. he can then retire with dignity after four yers having completed Dewar’s project. We’ll be left, ironically, with Holyrood-style Govt in the UK.

    I believe the voters will buy PR, bioth in the Lords and the Commons, and the whip hand of the executive will become slightly more limp as democracy re-asserts itself.

    I would feel sympathy for Cameron if he loses. He comes across as a decent person with decent ideas.

    Events conspired against him. It’s not his fault we’ve suffered a massive credit crunch, and it’s not his fault he leads a party that could not capitalise on it.

    Blame Brown for Clegg’s boost. Woiuld Broiwn have realised in advance the gift he was giving to Clegg by agreeing to debates? Or was he as desperate as we all thought he was to do something about his appalling position in the polls last year?

  25. The Tories have only got themselves to blame. They have failed to provide an answer to the question “The Tories will be better than Labour because ..”. Consequently they are not going to be the beneficiaries of the “time for change” sentiment.

    We are seeing a sea change in UK politics before our very eyes.

  26. LDSO Sun drenched anecdotes
    Yes I think the sun got its victim! Well done though from a fellow shoe leather wearer. 34 29 27 (ICM) would have been a dream a month ago let alone what they are telling us now.

  27. THE FIGURES FOR BPIX ARE:

    CON 31 -7
    LIB DEM 32 +12
    LABOUR 28 -3
    OTHERS 9 -2

  28. Me: “Is OnePoll a vaguely reasonable outfit?”
    Eion: “kylie returns”

    I’ll take that as a no then :)

  29. Oops sorry Eoin for the misspell

  30. Howard – I have got great reasons for being able to predict it, but I am not foolish enough to post them on here! ;)

    The forecast remains the same.

  31. Howard – I believe the raining of the threshold to 10k – essentially a Tory idea that they would have suggested in a boom period – did the trick for the LibDems.

    The counter-argument – that most of the money goes to the 80% above the threshold – doesn’t really wash with people any more than the arguments against IHT threshold increases.

    The people have gone off tax.(but still demand world-class services for all)

  32. @Amber

    ** BTW. AL J, SUE & I have always said, “If Labour can’t win, we’d rather be Yellow than Blue”**

    Just incase you need it -I endorse your comment – Red -Yellow -Green is my scene lol in that order ;-)
    and WSPA if they ever stood ;-)

    ************************

    As a social democrat since I was 16 but who remained a labour supporter (at GE though usually green at LE) you can add my name to the following campaign:

    ” I like red- but yellow is pretty good also and they are both much better than that horrible nasty blue” :-)

  33. Richard O

    copied to this new thread as posted on other one!!

    I might do some reverse pyschology.

    On Betfair, Labour are still over 5-1 to win most seats. Is that worth £50? Conservatives are odds on still to win most seats.

    Those odds seem very generous, and my thinking is this;

    If I lose my £50, I will be happy Cons are likely to get in to Govt. If Labour are largest party and Brown stays, I win £300 towards offsetting what it will cost me in high NI,Council tax and other stuff that will increase under Brown.

    Nice strategy but you may want to bet £500 rather than £50 to offset your tax rise. That may get you through the first 6 months at least.

  34. @PANKOOT BREAKING NEWS: The People: Lib Dems 33% Tories 27% Lab 23%. OnePoll questioned 3,715 voters Thur-Sat

    This would get us pretty close to equality in seats between the three major parties

  35. @Pankot

    It is a no but it still brings a big smile to my face

  36. @bill roy

    “Howard – I have got great reasons for being able to predict it, but I am not foolish enough to post them on here”

    Let me guess- you were visited by a little pixie….!

  37. @Greengrass

    @Saladin
    “i think that there is no scotish libdemboost”

    Why?
    ——————————–

    scotland has now an independent political live
    look at past polls
    in s. parties moved independent from the rest of gb

    i think there are 3 elections now

    1.ireland
    2.scotland
    3. ingland and wales (and even there you have to take different dynamis in the regions into account)

  38. i would go so far as to say the lib dem leader is like blair in more than one way. as cool as ice, a good spinner, a likeable face in reality alot of the things that blair portrade himself as and he got a fliping 178 seat majority in 1997, if people fall for the same old rubbish all of the time they will not learn and i would have thorught by now that they would have learned from blair that you my sound good but when push comes to shove he was a lier (blair that is) to be honest in 1997 i was to young to vote but would have voted lib dem in that year, but people should not fall for this blair in lib dem wool. however on the other hand voters are right not to trust cameron with a large majority and so far as i can see a hung parliment is looking very likely even compleate deadlock with the big three all on 190 to 200 ish seats.

  39. Sunbeam:

    Yes, just all nonsense, froth and meaningless fun. Normal “correct” figures to be back in place next week.

    As Charlie Brown said regularly: “Good grief!”

    Like some others you’re like a bloke on the Titanic, hearing a crash and shouting:

    “No problem: we can fix this”.

    Anyway, dream on.

  40. Unless someone has beaten me to it, I think we need word or something to descrivbe this extraordinary event.

    I suggest the GBomb.

    A real WMD!

  41. Paul Croft – Yes – It’s brilliant.

    Amber. Indeed. I’d like red, but I’ll take yellow, especially if it leads to a future of the two. After 13 years, it might even be a good thing,

    Sorry PeterBell, I agree, that wasn’t really what I meant. I agree that the LibDems are policy heavy, just that Bill Roy can’t assume that’s all this surge is based on, or that the surge will falter because the public don’t like one or two LibDem policies. They’ll like enough of the rest.

  42. Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong but I believe there was at least one poll earlier this week that had a majority preferring a hung parliament to either a Con or a Lab majority? The surge in LD support clearly ties in to this. It was a hint of what was to come. The ICM poll (mostly pre debate) shows the movement was underway. The surge is not all down to one good debate (as someone posted earlier NC was good but not THAT good!)

    The majority for a hung parliament (if that’s not an oxymoron!) would also suggest that DC is making a big mistake by insisting today on the stump that a HP will sabotage change. He just doesn’t get it does he? There is a big groundswell of opinion that wants a real change to the political system. All DC is offering on this score is less MP’s and boundary changes to suit.

  43. ….and now this Sunday People Poll..

    27/23/33 if confirmed

    Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says

    Con 200 (net 8 seat LOSS)
    Lab 274
    LD 196

    Labour 104 short of a majority BUT look at the LD and Con seat tallies.

    This would be grounds for Clegg being the PM no doubt about it.

    The YouGov tonight now is an absolutely VITAL last piece of the jigsaw puzzle.

    DC on his soap box today railing against a hung parliament really reminded me of Major in 1997…..

  44. If Labour get most seats of course they have the moral authority to be the Government first and Brown to continue as PM. More than the Conservatives who will then have lost 4 elections and got less seats. Our system is based on seats not %. If Conservatives want it on % they should sign up for full PR

  45. SORRY

    Lab *222*

  46. If the Lib Dems are even the main party in a coalition, we’ll have a cabinet and at least 3 of the 4 great offices of state filled by people with no experience of cabinet positions. Unbelievable.

  47. It’s a bit like the dynamics of a successful LibDem by-election campaign are being repeated on a national level. If so, it could last through to election day, though there are pitfalls.

    Sometimes the public mood can shift in dramatic ways. Remember Diana’s death? The LibDems at 40%, while not likely, can’t be ruled out entirely.

  48. John G Vandal
    I’ll keep away from the IOW then!

    Always the same with parochial situations

  49. Out of interest – what kind of percentages would the Lib Dems need to be achieving to look at their own outright majority?

    I know it sounds ridiculous (even to me) but with the breakdown of the ‘wasted vote’ phenomena – and possibly another couple of debates where Clegg could POTENTIALLY continue to outperform the other two and the clear appetite for change – what kind of percentages would the Lib Dems have to achieve to really be challenging seat wise?

  50. Quincel

    “If the Lib Dems are even the main party in a coalition, we’ll have a cabinet and at least 3 of the 4 great offices of state filled by people with no experience of cabinet positions. Unbelievable.”

    Wasn’t that the case in 97 when Labour won? The country seemed to survive it.

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