Two of Sunday’s polls have already been released – a new poll by ComRes for the Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 31%(-4), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 29%(+8). This was conducted yesterday and today, and is very much in line with the YouGov figures yesterday, showing a surge in support for the Liberal Democrats following the leaders’ debate, pushing them ahead of Labour into second place.

There is also new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph which has topline figures of CON 34%(-3), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 27%(+7). The fieldwork dates are very interesting here – Wednesday and Thursday. The Sunday Telegraph article says the “majority” of the fieldwork was done before the debate, I can only assume it was a large majority, unless ICM do their fieldwork quite late at night! Anyway, most of the shift in ICM’s poll can’t be attributed to the effect of the debate, but rather the publicity around the Lib Dem manifesto launch (remember YouGov’s poll immediately before the debate also showed a 4 point jump for the Lib Dems on the back of their manifesto).

In both cases (as well as YouGov yesterday) both of the main parties have declined as the Lib Dems have surged, but in all cases the Conservatives have lost more support than Labour.


177 Responses to “ComRes and ICM show Lib Dems on the rise”

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  1. Apologised on previous thread, but you were out Amber.
    Perhaps that should be time for a novice but not yet, in view of yr previous comments.

  2. @ Gray

    I tend to agree that there’s a sort of feedback loop going on that has produced a groundswell of LibDem support , a bit like “I’ll show you my vote if you show me yours”. But has this become self-propagating into fantasy land I wonder?

    Whether LibDems have the nerve to follow through on May 6th is another matter, as the reality of another 5 years of stimulating fun under Gordon Brown looms on the horizon.

  3. A 27 and a 29 for both Lab and LD. Can you believe it? And only a 31 and a 34 for Con; which would have been Labour numbers last week. It may be a Lib Dem bounce but it should be pause for thought for Labour.

    If you see someone in the street grinning inanely, look for a yellow rosette.

  4. Been on the campaign trail today for the LDs in Guildford and Tory support is changing… people who have voted Tory all their lives are putting up poster boards for the Libs. And first time voters are very receptive.

    This really has changed the election…

  5. @ BILLY BOB

    No need to apologise. My jokes are free for use by anybody. As are my GE predictions. It’s sometimes difficult to tell which is which ;-)

  6. i think that there is no scotish libdemboost
    so i´d love to see the english subsample :-)
    should be even better for libdems

  7. Gray

    “I think you’re getting a feedback loop here: When the LibDems were seen as being a distant third, people wouldn’t vote for them. Now that they’re seen as viable (being in the debates, for example), people are switching their votes to them.”

    or perhaps there has been a barrier broken down. Top excuse for not voting LD has always been “because they won’t win”. Now that tehy’re on level pegging with Lab, people don’t have that excuse any more. That with a general mood of disliking both Brown and Cameron may be generating genuine voting intention.

    There’s still time for Clegg to make a complete arse of himself and spoil everything, or he might build on his current position. As of Thursday night, anything is now possible.

  8. SSSimon
    Think I got the no of SSs righht!
    Indeed. I expect ICM will publish this because they must know when they did their phoning.

    Note again that an respected Internet company, a newer company with smaller samples and a respected phoning company all got the same trend and not a five minute wonder either but spread over two or three days. Oh and all within MOE.

    I am convinced this shift is structural. My explanation is the strange conservative manifesto, coupled with a stranger launch, as portrayed in the news media. The vox pops were sceptical so maybe the vox really was pop? Perhaps pollsters will start asking ‘what caused you to switch?’.

  9. @Billy Roy

    The lib Dems are very well known to be more pro-European. Equally there isnt a jot of evidence that European issues swing more than a handful of General Election votes whereas European issues do matter in European debates.

    You reasoning on people switching back is wishful thinking not evidence based.

  10. @ FTH

    Yes, this is the point, things are not the same as before, they are not predictable, marginals cannot be called anymore, safe seats are at risk. Models for predicting seats according to UNS are now not going to work. I am vey excited about the coming 2 weeks, simply from the political point of view. I hope David Dimbleby and co are preparing for a sleepless 3 days.

  11. I guess the point I would make about this is that popular rebellions are often addictive – could this be the first ‘viral’ swing?

    Also there are many people that have considered voting Lib Dem but have always thought it was a wasted vote.

    If the polls start to show the Lib Dems in second and maybe first place for a week or so then that argument starts to fall apart.

  12. Group psychology is going to be crucial for the LibDems – they need to build enough momentum for traditional Labour and Conservative supporters to vote for them in seats where they are currently nowhere, and to overcome the fear that a vote for them will let Conservative/Labour in through the back door. This has always been the problem for the LibDems in the election squeeze.

    Some regional polling would be priceless at this moment, as the location of the LD surge will be critical to the seat projections.

  13. What must really be worrying both Lab and Con is that looked at objectively the first, domestic policy, debate should have been the weakest for the Lib Dems.

    A lot of their policy in that area is either seen as too soft/liberal (by the Press at least) or is a bit too subtle to get over in the short time for thing set down in the debate rules (such as the immigration “amnesty”).

    On both foreign (Iraq) and economic (the financial crisis) policy they can already claim to be right when the other two were wrong (yes I know it’s more complicated than that).

  14. The Lib Dem figure in ComRes is not much more than confirmation that yesterday’s YouGov wasn’t a blip from a strange sample. I didn’t expect the surge to disappear overnight, why would it? Those arguing it could yet disappear are no less right than they were yesterday.

    However with the media coverage we’ve been seeing I think we will see the Lib Dem figure hold in the high twenties with the media coverage they’ve been getting.

    With the three parties so close together the chances we see a poll with the positions of the parties in another unusual position- Tories last, Labour first, or Tories second to the Lib Dems, seem high. Tory party on 31 I think is very unhealthy.

    BBC news shows Brown concentrating his fire on the Tories.

  15. @Saladin
    “i think that there is no scotish libdemboost”

    Why?

  16. @gary

    “If the polls start to show the Lib Dems in second and maybe first place for a week or so then that argument starts to fall apart.”

    as do the arguments of those natural-UKIP voters currently thinking that any vote other than for David is a vote for a non-majority Conservative government. If a minority Cameron administration supported by the Europhile Lib Dems becomes the most probable outcome or- as the last two days show- it’s a Lab-LD coalition, the whole rationale collapses.

    You could well see the Eurosceptic right wing shearing off to vote UKIP in protest at light blue-green Daves’s middle ground/ voluntarist-big society strategy.

    That could reduce the Conservative vote by a further 4-8% from the current 35% levels…..

  17. @ Paul Croft

    The Lib Dems mansion tax of 0.5% only applies to the value of properties above £2m.

    Therefore a £2m property would attract 0 tax whereas a £2.1m property would be liable for £500 per year.

    If the owner was say a pensioner who could not afford it, then they could opt to have it taken from their estate when they pass away rather than have to pay it out of their income.

    It is ridiculous that properties such as this one in Surrey are only taxed at the same rate as more modest (in comparative terms) family homes re- council tax.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-13208268.html

  18. Sky News says there’s one poll showing LD’s in the lead. wow

  19. YouGov’s next poll is, for me, the most important of 2010.

    We should see a teeny weeny swing back, that is if there is going to be one.

    So, look for 35 tory /29/ lab 28 lib

  20. David: Thanks for that info. I must learn to read up on policy detail…

    CORE VOTE:

    Cons consistently at or above 40%. They’ve lost about a quarter from that. Could that be their actual “core.”

    Lab consistently at around 30%. A relatively small drop to what could be theirs.

    Lib consistently under 20%. They’ve added close to 50% on that. It’s absolutely impossible to tell what their core vote can become.

    New poll shows them ahead and about 3 points between all parties.

    It’s getting like the premiership: Tory Chelsea/ Lab Moan U and Lib Dem Gunners. let’s hope it’s an omen.

  21. There is a poll in the sunday Mail tomorrow which puts the Lib Dems first on 32%, cons on 31 and Labour 28

  22. Roger Mexico

    supposed Debate weakness of Lib Dem’s

    Roger, we now know that the swing was more than well on the way before the Debate.

    I thought DC looked defeated in his manner on Thursday night. We must remember that they have their private polling. Perhaps he knew what we have now found out.

  23. Mail On Sunday (just announced on Sky News, didn’t say polling organisation):

    Lib Dems: 32%
    Conservatives: 31%
    Labour 28%

    Blimey!

  24. @ GREENGRASS

    “i think that there is no scotish libdemboost”
    Why?
    ——————————————-
    They have gone from 16 to 19 = +3 in Scotland break of YG. But that moves around a lot anyway; over night the SNP went up 4% CON -7%.

  25. Haven’t looked at the data but I’m guessing Tory-LD shift in 18-24 group, many first time voters who probably weren’t going to bother a week ago.

    Facebook and twitter playing a significant role.

  26. I have to say that ComRes are making a bit of a mess of “Others”. Their breakdown of these in this poll is 1% each for PC, BNP, SNP and UKIP, <0.5% Green and 8% Other. Apparently no-one in Scotland specifically said that they were going to vote SNP, though several in England/Wales did. If they are not going to differentiate properly, they should not do so at all and should put them all under "Other".

  27. Did someone catch the Mail on Sunday poll that was reported just now on sky news which (if i heard it correctly) puts LibDems ahead?

  28. Sky have just reported a Mail on Sunday poll showing LD 32 C 31 Lab 28, desribing this as “quite extraordinary”

  29. The way this election is going so far, you need to think of it as a nationwide by-election. Events, or a good poll, bring out more supporters, many with visible posters in their home, and in turn that results in a better poll rating.

    There is a long way to go, BUT dependent on the next two leader’s debates, and subsequent polls, the LibDems could win the election without needing help from the other parties.

    I have put a bet on the LibDem in my constituency to win. William Hill wouldn’t let me put £100on her, but restricted bet to £25. And in The Wrekin, where LibDems should stand no chance, they would only allow me to bet £8.

    Are bookies running as scared as Tories and Labour

  30. eoin

    Al J just said SN have a poll with LD in the LEAD – what if that is YG !!!!! Turning to it now :-)

    If it is- and continues all the way to debate2- I can see Cameron getting knifed if he does not blow away Clegg that night.

    It is looking like three-way polls +/- 3% all the way to debate2 now…..

  31. On geekologie.com picture of largest eruption on sun in 15 years on 12/13 April.

    Astrological rubbish as Brian Cox would say

  32. mail on sunday is harris

  33. @ AL J

    Sky News says there’s one poll showing LD’s in the lead. wow
    ———————————————————–
    I barely posted my prediction of LDs in 1st before you put up this news item.

    Jeeze, my crystal ball can hardly keep up ;-)

  34. Ash – I saw that too, but no details. Wonder which poll that is!

  35. LD 32
    C 31
    Lab 28

    Mail on Sunday

  36. its a BPIX lol i did warn you earleir BPIX would pull this stunt see previosu thread

  37. Opinium and Harris have produced for MAil but i Am told its a BPIX- they always contrive to have tories 2 points lower

  38. @Amber

    **Jeeze, my crystal ball can hardly keep up **

    lol It’s moving so fast – so exciting. My greatest fear is fading ;-)

  39. ROB

    Well I would be amazed to see the Tory vote drop below 30% but then I’m already amazed that the Lib Dem vote has seen such a huge surge.

    I also wouldn’t count completely against the Labour vote dropping below 27% as has been suggested although again it would be startling.

    Also I would point out that if the Lib Dems are doing better then maybe they are picking up votes from people who may have been going to vote for one of the ‘other’ parties – such as the Greens etc.

    I think this election has the potential to be different to anything we have ever seen before.

    Is that a good thing? I don’t know.

    But it sure is exciting!

  40. @Amber
    “They have gone from 16 to 19 = +3 in Scotland break of YG”


    That’s a nearly 20% increase. Without forgetting MOE, I would call that a boost.

  41. Sue Marsh – No, I do not think the LibDem surge is down to policy detail at all, in fact I think it is down to three main events:

    1) They represent something different to Labour and the Consrvatives;
    2) Gordon Brown basically told all Labour supporters that the Liberal Democrat policies are almost identical to Labour policies and that gave those Labour voters with any doubt about Labour the reasoning that they could switch votes to the LibDems and not be in conflict with their principles;
    3) The masterly delivery by Nick Clegg on the Leaders Debate and the utterly poor delivery by both DC and GB, and the rubbishing of DC by the TV afterwards.

    I postulate though that many who say now that they will vote LibDem are not aware of the LibDems policy on such things as Europe and Immigration, on Law & Order, etc.. It is now up to the Conservatives to highlight these facts to get their previously ‘soft’ supporters back. I do not though think that Labour will have the same opportunity to do so though.

    What will be interesting though is if the LibDems do approach the 40% mark, and there is an outside chance of that, then it will be astounding.

    In the meantime I have to say that there is no point saying what a parties previous low was, we are in unchartered waters during a tectonic shift in UK politics, anything is possible now.

  42. My mistake re. the mansion tax. It’s 1% not 0.5%. That was the original proposal.

    I must work harder
    I must work harder
    I must work harder
    I must work harder

  43. To compare

    The Comres poll 31/27/29
    Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says
    Con 239
    Lab 273
    LD 106
    LAB short 53 of majority

    The MoS poll 31/28/32
    Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says
    Con 230 (net 22 gains)
    Lab 274
    LD 120
    LAB short 58 of majority

  44. Are PB discussing the odds on who will be Tory Leader by the end of the year?

    Alec is right of course the boost started with the manifesto and the Cons went down like the preverbial their boost was only the coverage factor from the launch

    As with Sue above, I am a Labour Party Member but genuinely have wanted radical contituentional change for a long time, even advocating STV in multi member cointituencies.

    So as long as Labour do not get trouinced (less than 27%) I am quite pleased if the LD’s do well given a Lab overall majority has been very unlikely for some time.
    Quite frankly I do not know how much of the LD lift is sustainable but suspect a fair amount and Bill may be correct than more soft Tory vote will return than soft Labour.

    Anthony, I have never questioned polling methodologies but I wonder if the surge and increased credibility of voting LD makes some of the adjustment sless valid or in need of reappraisal?

  45. @Amber
    “Jeeze, my crystal ball can hardly keep up”

    Con-Lab lead now 4%. It’s doing fine. :-)

  46. @ GREEN GRASS

    Yes – but the LDs will still only get about 3 seats in Scotland, I’d say.

    I’m not putting LD down BTW. AL J, SUE & I have always said, “If Labour can’t win, we’d rather be Yellow than Blue”

  47. David North

    ComRes just screwed up the labels.

    However, the worthlessness of sub samples is shown by the ComRes series of numbers for the SNP since 21 Feb

    34, 29, 29, 17, 14, 9, 10, 8.

    It may be (who knows?) that SNP support has dropped a bit – but only 8% supporting the Government is a little unlikely.

  48. Re my previous comment on ComRes, the captions for UKIP and SNP look like they are the wrong way round, in which case the SNP get 8% in Scotland, but still well below what seems likely. I know it’s a very small sample, but the corresponding figures in the last three ComRes polls were 14, 9 and 10, all of which look way too low.

  49. I’ve just thought of a new, original slogan for the Libs and am rightly proud and smug:

    “Yes we can.”

    It’s a guddun isn’t it?

    Amplifying a serious point I made previously which received no comment:

    The LD’s chose Clegg over Huhne very, very narrowly, probably against their instinct, and probably based on presentational skills. For a while “Nick who?” and the prominence of Cable raised doubts. This election campaign has answered them: what I said before was that the same policies, expressed with the same words by Huhne, would NOT have won Thursday’s debate.

    I don’t approve of that but I do believe it to be true. Personalities are very important.

    For a similar reason Cameron/Osborne have gone the other way.

    Gordon just remains Gordon.

  50. there is no logical reason why the gap between red and blue should be narrowing.

    3%
    4%
    5%

    tis defo very narrow….

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