Two of Sunday’s polls have already been released – a new poll by ComRes for the Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 31%(-4), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 29%(+8). This was conducted yesterday and today, and is very much in line with the YouGov figures yesterday, showing a surge in support for the Liberal Democrats following the leaders’ debate, pushing them ahead of Labour into second place.

There is also new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph which has topline figures of CON 34%(-3), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 27%(+7). The fieldwork dates are very interesting here – Wednesday and Thursday. The Sunday Telegraph article says the “majority” of the fieldwork was done before the debate, I can only assume it was a large majority, unless ICM do their fieldwork quite late at night! Anyway, most of the shift in ICM’s poll can’t be attributed to the effect of the debate, but rather the publicity around the Lib Dem manifesto launch (remember YouGov’s poll immediately before the debate also showed a 4 point jump for the Lib Dems on the back of their manifesto).

In both cases (as well as YouGov yesterday) both of the main parties have declined as the Lib Dems have surged, but in all cases the Conservatives have lost more support than Labour.


177 Responses to “ComRes and ICM show Lib Dems on the rise”

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  1. Con unravelling immediately post-manifesto launch. Death blow struck by Caroline Lucas at Green Manifesto launch :-)

  2. WOW!

  3. Now things get interesting…

  4. Well, these polls will certainly help to fuel the hysteria over Clegg’s performance.

    I would urge people to treat these figures with a great deal of caution. Massive surges like this do not sustain – even for a few days – and jumps of 7 – 9% is simply not plausible.

    Unless there has been a dramatic and catastrophic collapse of Tory support (31% lower than 2005 election) – which I simply do not think is credible – I would not panic if I were a Tory, or a Labour supporter.

    Nor would I get completely carried away if I were a Lib Dem supporter.

    I would expect these figures to be somewhat different in a few days time.

  5. Sorry but the debate for clegg was good but not this good for an earthquake rise in support this size

  6. Honestly, I think you’re getting a feedback loop here: When the LibDems were seen as being a distant third, people wouldn’t vote for them. Now that they’re seen as viable (being in the debates, for example), people are switching their votes to them.

    This strikes me as reminiscent of the electoral chaos back in the 20s (three elections in three years), complete with the expenses scandal acting as a proxy for the cash-for-peerages mess that helped sink Lloyd George.

    One point on the Tories sinking more: Labour has been lower down and has therefore had less room to fall. I think everyone’s soft blowers are switching to the LibDems…though what the “actual” cause of this is, I don’t know (i.e. if it’s dissatisfaction coming out now that another option can actually win, etc.).

    Finally, I think the chances for a majority government are probably sunk at this point. I’m probably going to go over and put a couple of pounds down on a hung parliament.

  7. Never thought Conservative would drop to such a low level 2% lower than 2005 General Election. Labour have been at 27/29 in several other polls but Con 31 is unbelievable. Cannot see a Con-Lab pact, especially as Labour will no doubt go further than proposed on PR

  8. Con-LIB pact!

  9. New Angus Reid poll – Tories up 5 at 43%

  10. OK – only kidding.

  11. I think the gender breakdowns of the post-debate polls could be very interesting. Every woman I’ve spoken to (admittedly not that many!) says they’re switching to the Lib Dems and all the blokes are unswayed.

  12. These polls are making me even more grateful for having May 7th off. I am going to be going to bed very late, if at all considering 25 constituencies are reporting in the morning, and probably with a lot of whisky and gin inside my system.

    God this is good. Bye FPTP, hello a potential new and bright era for British politics? Must remain somewhat sceptical…

  13. You rascal Alec -my heart missed a beat lol ;-)

  14. it appears that the the LD’s have beensuccessful in their battle strategy. their vote share has risen due to th publicity of a campaign includingthe publication of their manifesto. This has been supported furtehr by NC’s performance in the 1st debate.

    We shall have to see whetehr the remaining polls to come out tomorrow ( if any) will confirm the trend of You-Gov , and whether the subsequent YG polls early next week will inddicate a stabilising of their position, coming up to the 2nd debale.

    If so, then we could indeed be in for a “game chnager”, as Adam Boulton of Sky declared.

    The outcome in seats is clearly a different story. the traditional UNS calculation may noo longer apply if there is a closening of the 3 parties. I will comment on this in due course

    My prediction of C 35%
    LD 28.5%
    L 25.5%
    May prove oout of skew, if many of those who want chnage opt for NC and the LD’s, rather than DC and the cons

  15. 31% for the Tories, if accurate, spells disaster for them – and the likelihood – no, make that a certainty – of a Lib/Lab pact.

    A majority is now looking like a distant dream for the Tories.

    How on earth has their support collapsed like this? 31% is lower even than the 2001 election result – at the very height of Blair’s power.

    Have I woken up in an alternative universe??

  16. I’m generally very wary of big poll shifts, but this is now confirmed by several posters and as AW says is not all about the debate. The Tories got a very limited manifesto launch – personally I think their big society theme bombed well before the debate – this is probably why Cameron didn’t mention it at all on Thursday. By contrast the Lib dems manifesto worked and started things moving, and as I posted pre debate Clegg has timed his launch well so he has some momentum going in to the debate.

    This may settle back, but it is really hurting Cameron. Once a sure fire winner looks to be on the skids it is very difficult to regain the initiative. I think they have a real fight on their hands now having effectively lost the mantle of ‘the change’. One or other, or possibly both, of the main parties could now see their support fall further as the Lib dems become a viable option. If next weeks economic news is good, it could be bad news for Cameron.

  17. Neil freudian slip? At this rate a Con/Lab pact would be just as viable as any other!!!!!
    Astounding. That’s three polls all agreeing.
    I do think the LibDems will fall back a bit but who knows what the effect of the other two debates will be.
    Staggering and very, very exciting.
    Tories in the low thirties must be terrifying, Labour aren’t really much changed from many polls putting them just below thirty.
    Lib Dems, I am now firmly rooting for you – I almost want them to poll at 30 more than I want Labour to win.
    This really could change democracy here in the UK beyond all recognition.
    Question is, would the politicians be able to be grown up enough to accept that it really WAS a time for change????

  18. I have just posted the beneath post on the previous thread and hope that AW will not think it wrong of me to post it here as well as I think it is relevent to this thread as well.
    ………………………….

    Before Labour posters get quite so extactic over the switch from Conservatives to LibDem please take a moment to consider the position of the LibDems on Europe, do you think that many Conservative leaning or soft voters will embrace the LibDem policy when they find out what it is?

    As I have posted earlier today, the swing vote from Conservative to LibDem is likely to return to the Conservatives, the same does not hold true for the swing vote from Labour to LibDem.

    It would seem that Labour posters on here are a really excitable lot, a few weeks ago they were posting that Labour would overtake the Conservatives when an odd poll showed only a 2% lead for the Conservatives, then some Labour posters said that the Conservatives could not hit 40%, the Conservatives went through it. Now Labour are in third place in the polls and suddenly according to Labour supporters they are winning by losing ground.

    I really find it ironic that some posters do not realise that historic precidents do not exist for this situation and keep trying to find them and what is worse apply them to the present situation where we are only 18/19 days away from the election itself.

    Everybody should calm down and realise that the sun will still rise tomorrow and we can all still see massive change yet in the polls. Oh, and by the way my prediction still stands, in fact I may have been a little bit too liberal with the Labour share of the vote on election day, but it is only 0.5% so I will stick with:

    C = 37%
    LD =29%
    L = 22%

    I would add that it is almost certain that the Greens and UKIP will now each win their first seats at Westminster.

  19. Staggering!

    I never thought there would be such a big slide in the Tory support.

    Conservative HQ must be imploding.

  20. @ AL J

    Nothing would surprise me with an AR poll. I didn’t even blink!

  21. copied to this new thread as posted on other one!!

    I might do some reverse pyschology.

    On Betfair, Labour are still over 5-1 to win most seats. Is that worth £50? Conservatives are odds on still to win most seats.

    Those odds seem very generous, and my thinking is this;

    If I lose my £50, I will be happy Cons are likely to get in to Govt. If Labour are largest party and Brown stays, I win £300 towards offsetting what it will cost me in high NI,Council tax and other stuff that will increase under Brown.

  22. The next batch of polls will be the most important, I feel, to see how much of this bounce might be sustained over the next 3 weeks. However, the ICM poll is the most interesting so far because it doesn’t have anything to do with the debate – it seems to have been more affected by the Lib Dem manifesto launch, which suggests there’s more to their success than just Clegg’s debating skills.

  23. Chris D – trying to compare just single polls before and after the debate probably won’t tell us (cross breaks are too volatile), but once we’ve got a fairly wide selection I’m going to have a look and see if there are obvious trends to where the Lib Dem surge has come from.

  24. Ecstatic not ‘extactic’ – I must get some sleep tonight! :)

  25. Some hope for the Tories: perhaps the pollsters’ maths is as poor as David Cameron’s when he said that he’d met a 40-year old “black man” who’d spent 30 years in the Royal Navy.

  26. Anthony, your polling average simply can’t cope with the rate of change, can it?

  27. WMA 34:29:26

    The 14-day trend of reduction in the CLead is now very convincing (R2=0.65) and is roughly 3 points in 14 days. This would give an estimated CLead at the election of 4.

    However this LibDem surge means we are in uncharted, and I think un-chartable territory, and it will be very interesting indeed to see what happens next. We could be witnessing a massive re-alignment. The one thing I’m sure of is that Cameron will keep his cool and that Brown won’t: remember 2007.

    Over the last week the WMA Lab:LibDem gap has fallen from 10 to 3 and the trendline has an R2 of 0.58 despite the fact that it was moving in the other direction for the first few days. The LibDems could well eclipse Labour if this continues.

  28. I see that the UNS projection now shows a tie on seats, and that’s without ComRes by the look of it …

  29. Bill Roy – you can post it again, but I’d question your point. Polls normally show the public as being broadly euro-sceptic, but questions on what issues matter to people and which issues are important to how people vote always show Europe a VERY long way down the list. As as issue it haas very low salience.

  30. As a fair votes/Lib Dem supporter I would [if asked which I won’t be] suggest that other parties query theri “mansion tax”.

    That’s the one that I find the hardest to understand: how will it work? how are properties valued?

    How fair is it that someone who is very, very wealthy, can convince the authoriteies that their enormous property in the North East is worth just under two mill, but someone less wealthy in the Home Counties, and living in only a medium size fantastic property, valued at just over two mill. has to cough up £10,000 year after year.

    I would foresee problems implementing it.

  31. @ Bill Roy

    I don’t think you say anything special. It’s all just your own hunch without any evidence. Obviously, you’re entitled to say it but no more so than excitable/ecstatic Labour voters.

  32. Anthony

    You don’t seem to have all polls up as yet in the average.

    There is tonight’s Comres Poll.

    Yesterday’s Comres Poll showing the Conservatives on 35%, Labour on 28% and Liberal Democrats on 24%.

    There is also a Harris Poll for the Mail showing the Conservatives on 32% Liberal Democrats on 32% and Labour on 26%.

    If these polls are included in your average how does it pan out?

  33. ICM partly pre-debate +7% tells us this: The Tory manifesto was not well received – & Labour’s didn’t light many flames either.

    The battle lines are drawn:
    1. Experienced Labour with their dour Scots duo;
    2. Change via Liddems with Nick (the Novice) Clegg & Saint Vince;
    3. “Same old Tories”?

    Now – what interested me about the YG poll was no-change in Don’t Knows. I’ll be taking a look at ICM & COMRES for this too.

    LAB might (& it’s a big might) pick enough from the DKs to move into 2nd place – LDs may pick up enough to go into 1st place. I doubt there are many undecided CONS.

    If CONs finish 3rd, it’s the ‘end of the party’ for DC & GO. Almost unbelieveable a week ago.

    I am not Blue baiting here – it is actually a possibility.

  34. Richard O – I’ll stick in ComRes when I stick in YouGov later (the average only updates automatically when a poll with a later date is added to the average, so I try to wait for all of today’s polls to emerge before adding them).

    The Harris poll was not a nat-rep poll, it was just people who watched the debate, so it won’t be going there.

  35. All the posters predicting Labour falling below 27%, should note that Labour has never been lower than 27% of the vote since it became a more established party in the 1920s. I cannot see Labour vote collasping that far. It is more likely to settle on 27% .

    I think it be Tories: 34%
    Labour: 28%
    Lib Dem: 25%

  36. The ICM fieldwork is crucial. If it was nearly all before the Debate and it is similarly crucial to know that was the case, then we are dealing with a whole new explanation for what happened. So I hope we can get that fact confirmed.

  37. I’ll echo SAM – WOW!!!!

    Really bad for the Tories this – even though Labour are in 3rd it all adds to the stories about the Tories in freefall.

    Could the Lib Dems get a further boost from this publicity and then next weeks debate?

    If so could they start to get into the mid 30’s and 1st place?!?

    All bets are off surely for this election

  38. @Bill roy

    sorry but NOTHING in the trend (Con=35) nor current data (Con=31) now projects that the Conservatives will be anywhere near 37%- thats just partisan wishful thinking.

    Clegg for Cameron: its events dear boy events………

  39. @ Richard W.

    Poor Anthony…give him a chance!

  40. @Paul

    It doesn’t work like that . It’s not ”all or nothing”. One only pays if your home is valued at over £2m -then it’s a % on the value over that . You don’t get hit with £10k bill straight off. If I’ve got it wrong -please tell me.

  41. Anthony – Thank you, but I think after the next debate when it will be raised (if not before in the press) that it will impact, the question is to what degree?

    But these are interesting times, no matter what we are living through a ‘change’. :)

  42. Both these polls have Labour largest party on UNS.

    The ICM poll, carried out before the debate, does suggest voters were unimpressed with both the Tory and Labour manifestos. The debate timing has been perfect for Clegg, amplifying the manifesto launch effect.

    Things may settle down, but I get the feeling the Lib Dems are on a roll here. It wouldn’t surprise me if the three parties are all within 5-6% of each other come the election.

  43. 40% seems a long way off. I wonder if that will be reached during the rest of the campaign. Will need a very strong debate from DC to do this.

    I think he will have to gamble now in the debates.

  44. To be honest, I’m a bit wary of this being a one-off spike (aggravated by the fact that two “spiking” factors occurred on top of eachother). That said, although I know it faded quickly, how long -did- that Brent North boost last? The spike only has to last a little over two weeks…and if Clegg does well in the next debates, that could perpetuate it for a while.

    A question to ponder: How many people are going to end up voting tactically in some form, and how much tactical unwind are we likely to see from ’97/’01/’05? I know that part of the reason the Tories have so much trouble in the polls vs. seat count is the presence of such voting in various areas (getting massacred in Scotland, Wales, and parts of the North doesn’t help, either, but Labour getting blown out in East Anglia and the South East at least partly offsets that). So…how is that likely to monkey with the UNS?

  45. @nbeale

    “The LibDems could well eclipse Labour if this continues”

    ahem-

    in votes but NOT in seats: thats just your 10-15% Conservative lead prediction on election day talking.

    ;-) ;-) ;-)

    Plus- you think the Conservative decline of the last week has halted ?

    Let’s wait for Eoins summing up tonight/ tomorrow.

  46. What fascinates me most is that, apparently, the Lib Dems were still on their way to the mid-high twenties even *without* the debates.

    It makes the argument that the debates are just a temporary blip much harder to believe.

  47. I can see a broadly +/-3% three-way split now all the way to Thursday: and what is shaping up to be a momentous evening for David Cameron.

  48. @Paul Croft,

    The mansion tax would be 1% of the excess value of the property above £2m, so to pay £10,000 it would have to be valued at £3m.

  49. Bill Roy – I usually respond to your posts as we are so obviously polls apart (geddit??)

    However, I have to say, do you honestly think the LibDem surge is down to policy detail? The public are fed up with the main two, they really do want a change and I don’t think policy intricacies are going to change that much one way or the other. Clegg also seems to have totally wiped the floor with the others on the personality issue. Not everything, but not to be underestimated.

  50. I think Alex is right to urge caution…however: there is not that much ideological difference between the parties these days and tribal loyalties may be breaking down. In that situation, one might expect greater volatility in the figures and this volatility could well persist to election day, without any party figuring out how to get an advantage that sticks.

    At the back of my mind is the picture of John Sergeant surviving on Strictly Come Dancing without any apparent dancing ability. Are voters going to use similar anarchic criteria on polling day?

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