Two of Sunday’s polls have already been released – a new poll by ComRes for the Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 31%(-4), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 29%(+8). This was conducted yesterday and today, and is very much in line with the YouGov figures yesterday, showing a surge in support for the Liberal Democrats following the leaders’ debate, pushing them ahead of Labour into second place.

There is also new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph which has topline figures of CON 34%(-3), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 27%(+7). The fieldwork dates are very interesting here – Wednesday and Thursday. The Sunday Telegraph article says the “majority” of the fieldwork was done before the debate, I can only assume it was a large majority, unless ICM do their fieldwork quite late at night! Anyway, most of the shift in ICM’s poll can’t be attributed to the effect of the debate, but rather the publicity around the Lib Dem manifesto launch (remember YouGov’s poll immediately before the debate also showed a 4 point jump for the Lib Dems on the back of their manifesto).

In both cases (as well as YouGov yesterday) both of the main parties have declined as the Lib Dems have surged, but in all cases the Conservatives have lost more support than Labour.


177 Responses to “ComRes and ICM show Lib Dems on the rise”

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  1. LIB DEM SUPPORTING OBSERVER

    Depends how low the Tory and Labour vote drop but probably around 40-42%

  2. Lib Dem Supporting Observer

    “Out of interest – what kind of percentages would the Lib Dems need to be achieving to look at their own outright majority?”

    C28 L23 LD41 might just about do it.

  3. Quincel:

    What a weedy point. Unbelievable in fact.

  4. I’ve heard that a BPIX poll in tomorrow’s Mail on Sunday has the Lib Dems in the lead. That will put the cat amongst the pigeons.

  5. @quincel

    “If the Lib Dems are even the main party in a coalition, we’ll have a cabinet and at least 3 of the 4 great offices of state filled by people with no experience of cabinet positions. Unbelievable”

    *people with no experience of cabinet positions*

    as opposed to DC as PM and the Boy George as CoE….. ;-)

  6. Some people on here seemed to have decided I’m a Tory because I don’t believe these polls. I refuse to post in a partisan way on this site. My posts are unbiased.

    I believe these are sheep polls. Peolle say they’ll watch the debates but of course they didn’t. They say they’ll vote Lib but they’ll be bored of Nick by next week. It’s all a bit X Factor. I hope a poll asks people if they watched the debate. Betcha 50% say yes.

    Have fun specualting about these polls and extrapolating for May 6th. It’s all fluff.

    Eoin – I disagree with ya again. I think the Libs won’t see the decline for a few days yet. The novelty will wear off slowly. Keep up the non partisan posts tho. Not much of it about.

  7. Thanks for the feedback… Well looks impossible. But then again its only another 8 points to 41 ;-)

  8. The electorate playing with the politicians! Revenge for expenses but it’s worth every penny of them – even Derek Conway’s transgressions and his retirement pay-off. He chose the right moment to resign.

    How much did the Thick of It cost?

  9. LibDem Supoporting Observer –
    With a following wind, 40-30-20 should do it :)

  10. @Quincel

    It depends what you mean by experience. Take a look at Wikipedia for the experience of Clegg and Cable in particular. This might surprise you (Clegg that is, we all know about Cable).

  11. Sunbeam: Nearly ten MILLION did.

    Do wake up to what’s happening. Words like “fluff” say more about you than events I assure you.

  12. 41/25/25 gives the libdems a majority
    (Ridiculous isn’t it?)

  13. Will the next leaders debate being on Sky and not on a main channel have less of an impact? The number viewing will be less, so more people will rely on the subsequent news coverage.

    Polls are showing the current reaction, but this could change following the last leaders debate on the beeb.

  14. John TT – LibDem Supoporting Observer –
    With a following wind, 40-30-20 should do it

    That sound familiar anyone ;) Bet he never considered it THAT way round though

  15. Quincel, did you mean “no Cabinet experience” or “no Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet experience”?

  16. I wasn’t saying it was a bad thing, but merely to have MPs with such little high level experience (mainly because even shadow cabinets have had some former cabinet members in until now) is unprecedented.

  17. “no Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet experience”

    Strictly speaking the Lib Dems also have a Shadow Cabinet, but certainly the role is different. The Lib Dem Cabinet, if elected, will have at no point been either the government or opposition as stated above. This is a new phenomena in British politics, that was my only point.

    To be honest, since I’ve hardly shown a strong anti-LD bias until now, I’d hoped I wouldn’t need to explain that.

  18. Are people here saying that for the first time in my life I have seen a poll during the election campaign that has the ‘third party’ in the lead? Anyone who predicted that was indeed a genius.

    It may all reverse of course – but lots of polling papers go out 3 days from now so it’ll have to be very quick!

    I suspect that Mr Clegg will get a going over from the other two in the Sky debate but if he holds up under the pressure (a big if) then that could work in his favour.

    Stange days indeed…

  19. I think that a wondeful scenario would be as follows:

    Conservative: 35%
    Lib Dems: 28%
    Labour : 25%
    Others: 12%

    Labour would be the largest party in government and would have the largest say in who is in the cabinet and have the lions share of policy decisions and decide who is leader.

  20. @ Sunbeam,

    “Some people on here seemed to have decided I’m a Tory because I don’t believe these polls. I refuse to post in a partisan way on this site. My posts are unbiased.”

    Sorry, Mrs Cameron(?); this just doesn’t wash. The rubbish you have posted makes me hoot with laughter.

    Analyse logically or please go elsewhere. This is a place for impartial analysis of the facts, not a chance for you to push patently biased views.

  21. Hello everyone -:o

    I can’t quite get my head around whats happened to the polls.
    It just seems sureal – surely the electorate are not that fickle to move the vote so heavily after just one debate!

    40 30 20 10 :o Indeed :o

    But if that comes out true who is on 20% ?

    Will the next debate see DC & GB be much more aggresive towards NC now he seems like a real threat and has now really upset the applecart as they say?

    If, as some on here are saying that Labour could end up having the most seats on just 25% and the Tories on 35% this will cause great unrest because there is no way on this earth that is any mandate what-so-ever to govern!

  22. @Mark Johnson,

    “If, as some on here are saying that Labour could end up having the most seats on just 25% and the Tories on 35% this will cause great unrest because there is no way on this earth that is any mandate what-so-ever to govern!”

    But this is the system that the Tories want to keep!

  23. “Out of interest – what kind of percentages would the Lib Dems need to be achieving to look at their own outright majority?”

    And which Tories (or Labour) could be up for their own Portillo moment?

  24. These figures are beginning to stack up. I didn’t believe the first one, but the latest ones reinforce the view that there has been a seismic shift in electoral intent.

    Whether the big (may be obselete now!) parties can reverse things is to be seen. I feel they may do so a little, but I’ll bet the Lib Dems poll AT LEAST 27%.

    But one thing is clear: the fact that the smallest %age of votes can lead the the largest number of seats is just wrong – and I think more people are realising it. The fact that by changing your vote from party A to party B, you can actually improve the chances of party C, is bonkers. The pressure for electoral reform (far more far reaching than Labour recommend) is becoming unstoppable.

  25. @Tony

    Is your view that the chances of a Labour majority are still close to zero?

  26. Make no mistake; DC is the biggest loser in this brewing political Tsunami. Why? The narrative of the election has changed from DC becoming the next PM to NC’s popularity and Labour ending up with the largest seats in a hung parliament.
    He can still become the next PM though if he holds his nerve and not panic.
    The biggest mistake DC can make during the next debate is to go on the attack against NC. In the eye of the public, he would have made a 360 degrees turn from a passive debater the last time around to an anxious and desperate politician this time. His job next debate is to drop all the emotional control and demonstrate passion. In terms of policies, he should stop trying to convert the unconverted that his policies are better than Labour’s because frankly, the public are confused about which policy is better. The public are however likely to give the benefit of the doubt to the man that displayed the most passion in what he believes.
    As for NC, if he is able to pull off another good performance, I will not be surprised if he ends up becoming the next PM?? Impossible? Wait and see.
    GB’s task is simple, keep exposing the danger of DC’s policies and inexperience and hammer home the unpopular but necessary decisions of the last 18months that have helped avoid total calamity.

  27. Is everyone as confused as I am by this? How can anyone predict the outcome of the election, based on opinion polls, when we have this daft first past the post system?

    The Tories could well lose votes to UKIP in sufficient numbers to affect the outcome in a number of seats. The Lib Dems are challenging Labour and the Tories in both two-way and three way marginals. It could well be local issues that decide the outcome of the seats. This is something opinion polls cannot take into account to predict the overall election outcome.

    I suppose the interesting polls in the next few weeks, will be those conducted in the key marginals. But then again the leaders debates could still affect these, if there is a slip up by any other candidates.

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