Lib Dems overtake Labour
For once I do not need to add a caveat about changes being inside the margin of error and not necessarily being significant – today’s YouGov poll for the Sun shows a huge surge for the Liberal Democrats on the back of Nick Clegg’s debate performance, putting the Lib Dems ahead of Labour and into second place. The topline figures are CON 33%(-4), LAB 28%(-3), LDEM 30%(+8). The surge in Lib Dem support therefore seems to have come pretty evenly at the expence of the Conservatives and Labour. This is the highest level of support YouGov have recorded for the Liberal Democrats since the aftermath of the Brent East by-election victory, way back in 2003.
On a uniform swing these figures would leave Labour the largest party, despite being in third place. The Lib Dems would have around about 100 seats. In reality though, it’s almost impossible to say how this would translate into an election result. In 1983 when the SDP Liberal Alliance almost pushed Labour into third place UNS was actually a pretty good predictor of the result, but who knows how it would work in practice now. If the Lib Dems stay at this sort of figure I’m sure we’ll eventually see some more detailled polling to see how the electoral plates are shifting, but till then it is speculation.
The questions now are firstly whether other polls show the same thing? Secondly how long this boost lasts. Is it mostly a publicity boost that will rapidly disappear, or will it stick around? Boosts after things like the Brent East by-election didn’t last long, but in this case the Lib Dems will probably enjoy a further publicity boost from the very fact there are polls showing them in second place, and on top of that there are two more debates to go. Thirdly, how does this change the narrative – can the Lib Dems start painting themselves as a contender to actually win?
@ Eoin,
York outer is a new seat and personally I would hesitate to predict anything about it! The Lib Dems have a majority of the councillors there and will poll well above their national % is all I would say with confidence….
If you believe the notional figures on this site however it will be an easy Lib Dem “hold” in almost any circumstance where the Lib Dems are above 25%
Andrew
@Oldnat 4.09
as usual in these back-and-forth’s about why the SNP is- apparently- so important to the UK political scene….you did not answer my question !
My view: turkeys (especially little ones) don’t vote for Christmas…..and the Nats won’t put DC in number 10 (if that permutation arose and currently it isn’t) unless they could extract both PR for UK-wide elections and more decentralisation.
I sometimes think you need reminding that Scotland and Wales are not separate states- your comments certainly suggest it
Ok prediciton time….
YG had Tories furhter ahead than other polling companies
remember they had them at 41 at various times…..
Well don’t say I said it please but a couple of these companies stand an outside chance of showing Tories in last place.
They will recover I have no doubt but it is possible….
If BPIX or TNS were in town I’d bet on it… but Harris and Old Angus are unlikely to deliver…
cue Populus/ICM..
Corr!! John Rentoul is a big tease. I’ll try to keep my twitter radar on so I can pick up the results -but do agree it’s nerve wracking
@Brownedov 4.07
You don’t convince me with your response.
Until we have a truly proportionate electoral system for UK -wide elections the TV companies got it right IMHO.
Now- if you were to argue that *Cameron* got it WRONG by agreeing to them in the first place- as Frank L. said on newsnight in 2008 when he predicted a post debate Clegg-Bounce.
Well then you’d have my agreement
@Andrew
check David Davis seat- will Labour tactical voting make a difference there?
Two weeks ago I would never have believed the election could get any more exciting, at least not dramatically so. Well it seems it has! I didn’t think the debates would have too much of an effect, and I’m glad to say I was wrong
The question we have to ask though, is can the Lib Dem’s maintain and further their momentum of potential change, potential revolution almost? Is three weeks a short enough time for them to do this whilst also avoiding a backlash?
Bizarre to see Cameron campaigning against a hung parliament. Signs of desperation and panic I think.
Considering a growing fervour towards the idea among the British public, I think this will backfire badly.
Also interesting to see Sky News coverage of him. They showed a clip of some guy having a go at him on the streets. This, of course, isn’t rare in an election campaign, but I get the impression the media is somewhat fed up of him now. Funny how he’s almost treated as the incumbency.
Cameron’s “40-yr-old black man” found: aged 51; 6yrs in navy not 30, doesn’t support Tories on immigration
New ICM poll in Sunday Telegraph
Con 34
Lab 29
Lib 27
Lowest Con since Sep 2007
Tories down 3%
Labour down 2%
Hardly D-day
Interestingly, Telegraph says most ICM polling was before the debate!
Which Conservative seats are vulnerable to a Lib Dem challenge ? There must be quite a few in the West country. Which are the Top 10s ?
Brownedov and Oldnat,
What possible justification could there be for Alex Salmond appearing in a debate in England, about issues which, as he himself pointed out, mainly only concern England, when his party are not contesting any seats in England, and he himself is not contesting any seats at all!
There is going to be a Scottish debate next week anyway, so why was he so keen to discuss the English education system, the English healthcare system and so on? And should it not be Angus Robertson, not Alex Salmond who participates in any debates in the run-up to this election?
To compare then:
The YG poll 33/28/30
Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says
Con 254
Lab 263
LD 101
LAB short 63 of majority
The ICM poll 34/29/27
Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says
Con 262
Lab 274
LD 82
LAB short 52 of majority
This is , of course, from before the debate. So the decline in Labour and Con votes preceded the debate. Clegg only reinforced it.
Regardless, Labour still the largest party. I think Labour HQ had worked this out. Hence, the heavy hints to Labour voters in Lib / Con marginals to vote Lib Dem.
@OldNat@4 p.m.
“Now I do realise that England hasn’t thought seriously about UK constitutional issues since 1688, but allowing yourselves to drift into quasi Presidential structures without appropriate safeguards does strike me as a little careless.”
—
(I’m in the past again – need to rush to reach the present, never mind the future)
Just to show the change from 11thApril
ICM: Con 34% (-3%, Lab 29% (-2%), LD 27% (+7%)
“check David Davis seat- will Labour tactical voting make a difference there?”
Eoin Clark,
You mean if Labour withdraw their candidate? Might make it interesting, but Davis would almost certainly still win.
Hypothetical point:
On May 7th, Labour finds itself as the largest party. 2nd or even 3rd [ unlikely in my opinion ] in the votes.
What should it do ?
In my opinion, nothing. Labour is the government and as the largest party presents the Queen’s speech. It is for others to vote against their programme if they so wish.
There is a precedence. SNP in Scotland.
@BillyBob@Amber
“Sorry Amber no time for a novice was your joke”
—
Yes it was and I would have acknowledged it when I saw it if I hadn’t had to rush off to collect my daughter. Catching up again now.
ROB SHEFFIELD @ 4:31 pm
“Until we have a truly proportionate electoral system for UK -wide elections the TV companies got it right IMHO.”
That, and your earlier “Scotland and Wales are not separate states” makes me wonder whether you’ve ever read House of Commons Library Standard Note PC/03354 on Party Election Broadcasts which states very clearly: The four nations of the UK will be considered separately.
and
Major parties in Great Britain are defined as: Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats and, in Scotland and Wales respectively, the SNP and Plaid Cymru. Major parties in Northern Ireland are defined as Democratic Unionist, SDLP, Sinn Fein and Ulster Unionist.
This is entirely in-line with s6 of the Ofcom Broadcasting Code. UK general elections are multi-national, and the broadcasts in question deny that. The Indy still has all of its coverage of the 1995 Court of Session case on-line and is well worth reading. The only difference between then and now is that in 1995 London BBC were not particularly pro-Labour.
2nd poll showing the majority of swing to the Lib Dems coming from the Cons.
ComRes for S Mirror/Independent on Sunday Con 31 -4, Lab 27 -2, LD 29 +8 Oth 13 -2
according to PB poster (so health warning)
“**** ComRes ****
ComRes for S Mirror/Independent on Sunday Con 31 -4, Lab 27 -2, LD 29 +8 Oth 13 -2.”
Now we know why DC was so desperate for Brown to call the GE earlier. He was always worried about unknown unknowns scuppering his inexorable march to No.10.
I’ve been hearing this idea that Cameron got it ‘wrong’ by agreeing to the debates quite a lot in the media now, and it seems to be going unchallenged. But it’s actually quite a cowardly, undemocratic position to take.
Cameron already has the support of the larger part of the mainstream media to publicise his policies. If he can only win by making the election an even more unfair fight (ie by avoiding a debate), then it would imply he has no faith in his own policies.
At the end of the day, if you can only win an election by suppressing the voices of your opponents and avoiding public scrutiny, then you don’t deserve to win.
Since I believe that all three major political parties involved in the debate actually *do* believe their policies are the right ones, they should be enjoying this opportunity to convince the viewing public. It’s refreshingly… democratic!
That said, I believe, as well as the nationalists having their own local debates, there should have been some strategy to enable the smaller parties to debate and be scrutinised by the public as well, perhaps a debate between UKIP, the Greens and BNP (they do have a right, much as I despise them).
One might say that things just got even more interesting
@BillyBob@Amber
“Sorry Amber no time for a novice was your joke”
—
Yes it was and I would have acknowledged it when I saw it if I hadn’t had to dash off to collect my daughter. Sorry- Catching up again now.
The ICM poll appears to confirm YouGov – big lift for Lib Dems, breaking around 60/40 from Con and Lab. Cameron is playing a very dangerous game by appearing to assume Lib Dem policies will fall apart under close scrutiny. I suspect Brown has a much more effective line, and for the Tories I would worry that shining a spotlight on the Lib Dems will just exacerbate their own problems.
@ Rob
Just had confirmation from another source of this poll
“ComRes for S Mirror/Independent on Sunday Con 31 -4, Lab 27 -2, LD 29 +8 Oth 13 -2″
If ComRes true:
more amzing polling news !
To compare
The YG poll 33/28/30
Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says
Con 254
Lab 263
LD 101
LAB short 63 of majority
The ICM poll 34/29/27
Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says
Con 262
Lab 274
LD 82
LAB short 52 of majority
..and now..
The Comres poll 31/27/29
Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says
Con 239
Lab 273
LD 106
LAB short 53 of majority
LOOK at the Con-LD seat totals……
It’s incredible –things won’t be the same again if the LD’s have momentum and carry this through to the GE. Wow
Chris D-The bulk of polling must have been after debate, with 7% increase.
This is further evidence of the 30% being the high water mark for LD. I repeat this is still a boost from media hysteria and debate hype. It will settle down .
I think accurate pciture will only develop from Tuesday onwards re polls.
Tories/Labour must highlight LD weakness = Policy.
LD are far too pro EU for middle England and soft on immigration. This must be highlighted
Can anyone think of a bigger error of political judgement in recent years?- DC agreeing to debates.
I still think once the dust has settled, the UK electorate are far to sensible/smart to be influenced solely on a 90 minute TV performance.
Make that a 3rd pol.
Lib Dems are the change party now, Cons will have to focus on them now, leaving Labour to sneak under the radar/
ROB SHEFFIELD @ 4.27
“Scotland and Wales are not separate states”
In the US meaning of the term, we probably are!
What you fail to realise is the different functions of May 6 across the UK. Only in England are you having simultaneous elections on reserved and devolved powers. For everybody else this is just Part 1 of the election.
To ignore that creates an impression of arrogance, and treating the other parts of the UK as an “irrelevance”.
Of course, I’m quite happy for you to do that.
I predict this site hanging at 16.54 p.m. due to traffic spike.
Contacted Bill Gates yet, Anthony?
I wonder if Lord Ashcroft is thinking he should have just put his money in a building society account like the rest of us?
ComRes poll shows Conservatives on 31% and 239 seats
The “I am going to emigrate” posts have started again on ‘political betting’
I’m not sure the calculus models will necessarily work. Lib Dem marginals are notoriously difficult to call.
@EoinClarke
“Cameron’s “40-yr-old black man” found: aged 51; 6yrs in navy not 30, doesn’t support Tories on immigration”
—
Now, there’s a surprise
Here’s ComRes!
http://www.comres.co.uk/page1901614231.aspx
Lib Dems up eight points to overtake Labour. There is our corroboration of the trend.
Rob – of course the SNP will be prioritising PR and greater powers for Holyrood in a hung parliament. I don’t really see how pointing that out is a jibe against them – that’s exactly what their voters would want them to be doing, and I’d guess Oldnat as well. As for how ‘little’ the SNP is, I’d guess perception on that depends on where in the UK you live – but if these latest polls are right, the SNP are about to seem a good deal less ‘little’ to everyone.
Neil – wrong question. What possible justification can there be for a debate excluding the SNP, all about English health and education, to be shown in Scotland? Unless of course there is reciprocity and the STV Scottish debate is shown across the whole UK, which it isn’t going to be. Oh, and Angus Robertson is going to be the SNP representative in that debate, so I don’t really see what your issue is there.
Added to the whole Cam/Con [unintentional pun] problem is the the probability that – completely unofficially of course – both Lab/LD will be giving their campaigners the appropriate nudges and winks, in the appropriate constituencies, as to how to vote for a result most likely to deny Cons any chancer of victory.
It will be, perhaps, a completely informal, pre-empive version, of AV.
I seriously think it’s all over for the Cons, but then, my own analysis indicated that ages ago – just not as dramatically as it’s turning out.
@Simon – “Can anyone think of a bigger error of political judgement in recent years?- DC agreeing to debates.”
I’ve posted for about 4 years that I feel cameron’s judgement has been woeful on many occasions, with a repeated inability to look beyond the 24hr news cycle and analyse potential outcomes. The Lisbon referendum climb down was the first example that really hurt him, the sudden switch from deficit reduction to tax cuts subtly undermined his credibility, but the TV debates was the ultimate. Old Dog Brown will be laughing at this I’m sure.
Neil
“What possible justification could there be for Alex Salmond appearing in a debate in England, about issues which, as he himself pointed out, mainly only concern England”
What possible justification could there be for Brown/Cameron/Clegg appearing in a debate in Scotland and Wales, about issues which, as Alastair Stewart pointed out, mainly only concern England?
Re ComRes- If the Tories polled 31% in 1997 GE . I am safe in saying they will poll more than 31% in 2010.
Everyone calm down…….
The big thing is how long, and how sustained will the LD rise be, and if the spplit is 60/40, in terms of vote taking from Cons/Lab, will any re-trench be at the same proportions.
It’s difficult to say. I think we will all have a good idea by this time next week.
I will freely admit that I am much more nervous now about the implications to the Conservatives. Having said that, it is no great reflection on Labour, getting Brown through the backdoor so to speak.
When will you put the 30 % of the libdems in your columns ?
@Rob Sheffield
**The “I am going to emigrate” posts have started again on ‘political betting’**
I’ll give them a lift in my car
the Com Res poll is incredible.
Now I have started to sit up and take notice.
The tory lead appears to be plummeting.
ok Labour are still in 3rd but 27% is not much lower than some of their figures (in the pre debate days)
But 31%!!!! The Conservatives are finished if this continues