Lib Dems overtake Labour
For once I do not need to add a caveat about changes being inside the margin of error and not necessarily being significant – today’s YouGov poll for the Sun shows a huge surge for the Liberal Democrats on the back of Nick Clegg’s debate performance, putting the Lib Dems ahead of Labour and into second place. The topline figures are CON 33%(-4), LAB 28%(-3), LDEM 30%(+8). The surge in Lib Dem support therefore seems to have come pretty evenly at the expence of the Conservatives and Labour. This is the highest level of support YouGov have recorded for the Liberal Democrats since the aftermath of the Brent East by-election victory, way back in 2003.
On a uniform swing these figures would leave Labour the largest party, despite being in third place. The Lib Dems would have around about 100 seats. In reality though, it’s almost impossible to say how this would translate into an election result. In 1983 when the SDP Liberal Alliance almost pushed Labour into third place UNS was actually a pretty good predictor of the result, but who knows how it would work in practice now. If the Lib Dems stay at this sort of figure I’m sure we’ll eventually see some more detailled polling to see how the electoral plates are shifting, but till then it is speculation.
The questions now are firstly whether other polls show the same thing? Secondly how long this boost lasts. Is it mostly a publicity boost that will rapidly disappear, or will it stick around? Boosts after things like the Brent East by-election didn’t last long, but in this case the Lib Dems will probably enjoy a further publicity boost from the very fact there are polls showing them in second place, and on top of that there are two more debates to go. Thirdly, how does this change the narrative – can the Lib Dems start painting themselves as a contender to actually win?
OK
The YG poll 33/28/30
Electoral calculus (without tactical voting tool switched on) says
Con 254
Lab 263
LD 101
LAB short 63 of majority
crikey….
Wow.
Technically bad for Cons in terms of seats, but morally terrible for Labour.
Bloody hell. Words fail me a little here.
Wow…
That’s a shock… even if it’s a rogue, this will give the Lib Dems a major momentum boost…
Time to start looking at LibDem policies. I wonder if doing so will make any difference, or if people will get carried away with the idea of making a fresh start?
This parliament is looking decidedly hung.
Note to self – when the Sun spins this much ahead of a poll, its bad for the Tories!
Astonishing poll in every regard. Labour in 3rd, Conservatives dropping so low and of course Lib Dems getting something that was elusive for labour recently…
But according to the seat predictor on this site…
Hung Parliament, Labour 51 seats short
Wow!
I doubt if it will last – but if it does, it will mean that Cameron has, in the end, changed nothing.
But, watching a SKY body language expert, it seems the key to this LibDem bounce is that Clegg looked straight at the camera, whilst Cameron and Brown addressed the audience.
But the Kennedy/Nixon election turned similarly.
Wow, labour largest in hung parliament. Tories at 2005 general election figure
You can see why Lib Dems want PR. Greater share of vote than Labour gets them less than half the seats!!
Funny thing is, they might just get PR out of Brown.
I so hope this degree of uncertainty continues till election night. It will be enormously exciting (and I’m *kind of* a tory).
Surely the headline is –
Tory lead over Labour down to 5 points
What next?
WOW!!! Tories down to 2005 levels, Labour largest party in hung parliament despite the lowest share of the vote.
Astounding.
Tories down 4 Lab down 3
BRILLIANT : LABOUR LARGEST PARTY BY 30. If this is third place, it feels great ! Shall we ditch AV ?
Amazing!!
All within 5% of each other!!!
“Thirdly, how does this change the narrative – can the Lib Dems start painting themselves as a contender to actually win?”
This is getting sillier and sillier and sillier. I do hope this post-debate hysteria subsides over the weekend.
What marginal boost would the Tories get from this
?
LAbour were 29 with YouGov 10 days or so ago… so this is one less than that..
When were the Tories last at 33?
how long until Libs overtake Conservatives?
Now you can see why Labour [ all of them ] were saying such nice things about the Lib Dems.
There is method in the madness !!!
Can anyone actually see this lasting? Two more debates in which now people will expect to see Nick Clegg do well. Can’t see him getting the kid gloves treatment next time from Cameron or, for that matter, Brown. Scrutiny of the LibDem policies will also show their bounce decaying.
I doubt it will last. If it does, Labour coming third yet still being the largest party in government is a situation that the country simply could not tolerate.
We just need to see if this poll if picked is up by other pollsters. Don’t ge too exited. But now I have to say that Bill Roys predictions seem to be right. This is very interesting.
The question is, when these apparent new Lib Dem voters start drifting away again, will they return to whence they came, or a different home ?
Problem with next debate, I don’t think Sky news will get the same figures viewing!!
Now that is startling.
I’d quite like those UNS results for election day too, that would be one hell of an interesting parliament.
political betting has currently CRASHED- what a shame as I was hoping to read how the ‘punters-who-are-going-to-lose-their-shirts’ spun this on into a workable Conservative majority
I’d be interested to know whether women have swung more to Clegg than men because I, for one, thought his performance was a very “female friendly” one.
@Ambér,
It seems you were more accurate about Labour’s core vote than anyone gave you credit for.
Labour = GB =LibDem = NC = Labour
I somehow think that will be the mantra for a while now from the Conservatives.
Labour, well they will go on Paxman and anything else now to try and get in front of the LibDems – GB kept indicating there was little difference between Labour and LibDems – so this is on his head (and his advisors like Mandelson of course).
I think we need to wait a few days at least to see how this plays out, I reckon Tuesday night should have some figures where volatility of the voters has calmed down, of course that is not to say that the figures will change, but at least we can then appraise the situation with a clearer perspective.
My congratulations to LibDem supporters, you have waited a long time for this and no matter what good luck to you (I just hope you come second on May 6th!
).
This is not only the most exciting election I’ve ever known, but could end up as the most democratic.
sure, morally, it would be a terrible result, but it would almost certainly lead to an enormous shift in our political system.
Richard O… It would be equally bad for both “major” parties… bad for the Tory Campaign too because they have majored on the “Time for Change” message, the assumption being there is only one alternative – them, this changes that dramatically!
OH – MY – GOD…
20 days out from a General Election, there is less than 5% difference between all three parties?
This just isn’t the British way of things!!
@AW
“can the Lib Dems start painting themselves as a contender to actually win?”
Anthony , I suspect you asked this a bit tongue in check just as I suspect that Nick never belived he could do it when he was saying it was his aim. As a LD member I never thougt for a minute that it was a possibility, and still don’t in terms of seats but largest share? I can dare to hope.
Wow! This is quite extraordinary – we are now in completely uncharted waters.
This is going to be the most interesting GE in living memory!
Sky reporting “this is DREADFUL for the Tories” – I don’t think I’ve ever heard that as their slant!
The Tories have been -4 two days in a row!
-4 two days in a row!
Holy Moly!
So it two clear conclusions depending on your view.
1. Vote Clegg and get Brown
2. The voting system is particularly unfair at these close results in terms of seats
How come people keep saying Lib Dems cannot win when now they ae only 3 points off the tories and about 8 off overall majority… next weeks polls will be mighty interesting
Ps this is second poll today to put LDs in 30 earlier ITV comres had them at 35% still behind tories
Sky News:- Alarm bells at CCHQ
”Knives out for DC for agreeing TV debates”
oh oh!!
Sky News just now:
“predictions in westminster tonight that there will be knives out for david cameron this weekend”
“alarm bells ringing in Tory HQ”
“Tories really got to re-evaluate their strategy”
all from Glen boy
…the wheels are falling off
Could this actually last?
This fits well with previous polls showing voters wanting change but not really to the Tories. Now Clegg’s performance has given them that alternative and they leap at it.
This should change the narrative massively: Libdems will get a lot of publicity and Cameron will lose a lot of his aura.
My poll of one (sample = my wife) found that the debate brought in one ambivalent voter into the Libdem fold.
Personal guess is that this election is now wide open. The Libdems are getting a momentum with only three weeks to go.
The critical question now is ….
…. with this effect be repeated at the second & third debates?
@All,
Everybody is getting too carried away really.
What this tells us, is one key thing.
The entire election will probably swing on the last BBC debate.
rich
It won’t last,sudden surges never do, but it’s certainly fun.The 33% for Cameron is the real shock for me.
Remember
The Conservatives DROPPED by 4 in yesterdays you gov after the LIB DEM manifesto launch, the Tories have fallen 8 points in two days compared with labours 4 points.
This is potential meltdown for Cameron with 2 debates left
If this actually happens, it will certainly be the death of FPTP. And as a long term contributor to Make Votes Count, that suits me fine.