Waiting for the verdict
I’ve been rushed off my feet for most of the day and have missed the fuss over the ComRes figures. What seems to have happened is that ComRes included a voting intention question on its instant reaction poll straight after the debate yesterday. This had figures of Con 36%, Lab 24% and Lib Dems 35%. In comparison, the same people’s voting intention prior to the debate had stood at Con 39%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 21% – so certainly there was a big swing to the Lib Dems amongst those who ComRes surveyed, and presumably amongst those who watched the debate (though I was concerned to see that ComRes had weighted the sample to match GB demographics and recalled past vote, given that it seems rather unlikely that the audience of the debates was a precise reflection of the GB electorate).
Later on ComRes released a second set of figures – CON 35%, LAB 29%, LDEM 21% – which proports to be an extrapolation to national voting intention. It seems to be based on the assumption that the audience of the debate were equally distributed through the population and that all the rest of the population’s opinions are unchanged from the last ComRes poll – both of which are somewhat questionable assumptions.
While there is a natural desire to get the faster possible indication of how the debate has impacted voting intentions, I would recommend waiting until the first full GB poll to draw any conclusions.
There will certainly be the normal YouGov poll later on tonight (thought with the start of the fieldwork delayed until after the debate), and may yet be other polls I’m not aware of. Apprently ITV’s Tom Bradby has just said it will show “a quite dramatic movement”. I couldn’t possibly comment.
33 – 28 – 30
YouGov – 33 28 30 Con Lab Lid Dems!!!!!!!!!!!
Sky are reporting Con 33: LD 30!: Lab 28
Richard O – Blair, undoubtedly. Thatcher was never a great speaker or thinker on her feet IMO. She relied on bullying.
Sun’s YouGov poll result tonight: Conservatives 33% (-4), Lib Dems 30% (up 8), Labour 28% (-3), Others 9 (-1). First poll post debate.
So, wow!
Nice to see the sun spin, even though the real disaster is for DC and the Tories!
But look where their vote came from!!!!!!!
I still think there is a lot more meat on the bone for the Lib Dems to go at on the Tories on the “cleaning up politics angle”, for example shadow health secretary Andrew Lansley being paid £21,000 by health care company Care UK to run his private office.
If the Tories start playing dirty, they will just look foolish. I predict that any fight back by them might start to drag them down c. 34% ish. Cameron’s veneer will come flaking off in large chunks and he will go bright red if he doesn’t wear enough makeup.
Tories back down to 2005 levels.
This would give Labour a plurality, but I doubt it will last.
NEW THREAD
Would be 271/ 244/ 103 seats!!!!!!
Gordon Brown will remain the Prime Minister of Great Britain and NI for five more years.
That is the lowest I have seen the Conservative and Unionist Party since 2005
blimey, more or less a three way tie .That is funny
BRILLIANT : LABOUR LARGEST PARTY BY 30. If this is third place, it feels great ! Shall we ditch AV ?
So this latest poll puts Labour some 30 seats in front of the Tories! 33 30 28 C Lab Lib
The Tories now the same as 2005. Strange result.
Thats the fragility of the Tory vote
There was a big chunk of soft anti-Brown votes out there. This was going by default to the Conservatives – though there were more held noses out there than any Conservative was willing to admit. As of tonight those votes won’t go to the blue corner by default. The old order may re-assert itself by May 6 but of course the postal votes go out around April 20…
Yougov April Tallies:
Con Lab LibDem
01/04/2010 39 31 19
02/04/2010 39 29 20
05/04/2010 41 31 18
06/04/2010 40 32 17
07/04/2010 37 32 19
08/04/2010 40 31 18
09/04/2010 40 30 20
10/04/2010 40 32 18
11/04/2010 37 31 20
12/04/2010 39 33 20
13/04/2010 39 31 20
14/04/2010 41 32 18
15/04/2010 37 31 22
16/04/2010 33 28 30
@SueMarsh
“Sorry if this is off topic, but I know many like to hear stories from the campaigns, and it really is a level of effort and enthusiasm I can’t remember for a long time.”
—
My universe is full of people who act on their beliefs and enjoy it. Glad yours is too now.
I know we can’t extrapolate too much from a single poll but….
Is this the end of 2-party politics in the UK as we know it?
Ladbrokes are now offering the same odds on a hung parliament as for a small Tory Majority. Brown -the master tactician- is bound to go in with the Liberals and introduce AV thus killing the Tories as we currently know them for ever.