YouGov show a boost for the Lib Dems
They’ll be out of date in half an hour anyway, but for what it is worth there are two new polls tonight from YouGov and TNS BMRB. TNS BMRB have topline figures, with changes from the end of March, of CON 36%(-2), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 22%(+3). YouGov meanwhile have figures of CON 37%(-4), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 22%(+4).
On the face of that they appear to be showing the same – a big jump for the Lib Dems at the expense of the Tories. Look carefully at the dates though. YouGov’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, so it is very likely picking up the publicity boost from the Liberal Democrat manifesto launch. Tuesday’s manifesto launch for the Conservatives pushed the Tories up to 41% in the YouGov poll the next day, and the Lib Dem launch the next day dropped it straight back down and pushed the Lib Dems up to their highest rating from YouGov since Nick Clegg’s conference speech last autumn.
In contrast TNS-BMRB was conducted in the week leading up to the 13th April (Tuesday) – a period when other pollsters were not showing a Lib Dem jump, and certainly too early to be reflecting any Lib Dem boost from their manifesto. With all the other companies conducting online or telephone polls, the time that face-to-face polling takes really does render TNS-BMRB a bit behind the news agenda (a shame in my view, since I think a wide variety of methods is a positive in opinion polling).
Anyway, I expect the Lib Dem boost in YouGov’s poll would have been largely transitory… if it weren’t for tonight’s debate. More on that later shortly though.
I told you YG’s 41 was ropey
Tory party are now
YG 37%
Harris 36%
TNS 36%
ComR 35%
Pop 36%
AR 38%
And so the pendulum sways the other way and back to hung parliament territory.
On the face of it, these polls are quite encouraging for Labour after a rather mixed day yesterday. It’s interesting that we’ve now had 2 polls in quite quick succession putting the gap at 3%, as well, and these can’t simply be dismissed as outliers – well, OK, you can if you want to, but I don’t think Anthony or any serious pollster would. But we move on, now it’s debate time, and things can change. Maybe in either direction!
EOIN – I said the YouGov 41 was ropey too. In fact I think I said YouGov consistently giving the Tories 40 or above was looking very ropey to me.
Labour vote seems solid and it’s the Cons where it’s showing this fluctuation. Cons down 4 points is massive and correct me if i’m wrong but the biggest move seen during the election.
Éoin
You were perfectly right. Add me to your followers.
This is getting tighter & tighter. Will it continue after the TV debates -have a guess Éoin.
Am I the only one getting a bit sick of this backwards and forwards with the polls. Good god people you know who everyone is, their record and most of what they want to do in the name of god just make a choice and stick with it! I’m not seeing any party or leader doing anything to cause these wild swings. What’s going on?
There are three separate post debate polls…
AR will go blue
ComRes will go red
YG may go yellow/blue
I think the average of all three is the only sensible way to take this… so my guess is
An average of all three results (AR, ComR, YG) will be
Tory 38%
Labour 30%
Yellow 24%
Anthony, do you know when Ipsos Mori will have a voting intention as they haven’t done a national poll since beginning of March?
I am a labour supporter but anecdotely (despite a couple of media attacks) the Lib Den manifesto was the best received of the 3 and probably the cons the worst (but that may be my bias).
Oh Sue -you were right too. This is getting very exciting (where have I heard that before? lol)
The Yougov polls for The Sun are suspect. Their polling is done from people who have registered with Yougov online, which may not be representative. I would not be surprised if Tories knowing the method of polling, had signed up, so they could influence the polls.
I am hoping that with tactical voting and a mixture of people supporting their existing MP’s, that the outcome will be a hung parliament.
My prediction is that Clegg will come across better than either GB or DA tonight with the “neither of the established parties of government can get it right” line. If so, I can see the Lib Dems sustaining their bounce. (and I speak as a Labour voter).
Anyone who is a fan of representitative democracy must applaud the fact that these debates are happening.
My I put on record that I think it is a credit to British Democracy.
It brings political reform, which began in 1832 (Some say 1215, others say 1688), another huge step forward.
As an enthusiast of watching the parliamentary system I am genuinely thrilled.
Good guess Éoin
Tory 38%
Labour 30%
Yellow 24%
I’m hoping the Con lead will be smaller. When do we find out -about 2 days time.
I wonder if there will be a knock out moment!! 4 minutes to go.
I’m actually getting nervous is that sad?
Al J,
We find out immediately after the show…
@Chris,
I’m touching cloth too lol
The LibDem vote has been creeping up for 2 to 3 weeks. These polls feed into that trend, rather than being a “boost”.
@Eoin
I think the Lib Dems are unlikely to come out with 24% after – I have a suspision the other 2 will gang up on Clegg, to limit his impact.
However, as they may both have to try and form an agreement with him in 3 weeks, maybe they’ll be nice?!?
It’s going to be a very interesting 90 mins!
R Huckle – It’s impossible. Firsly most panellists are recruited pro-actively, not through the website. Secondly, with a panel of 350,000 people the number of people joining under false pretences in order to make even a minute difference would have to be so large that it would be blindingly bloody obvious to the panel team. Finally, political polls are closed to new recruits in the run up to elections to prevent any possibility of entryism.
Éoin – thank you.
Chris & Éoin I’m trying to stay calm
YouGov’s highest score for LD this year, not that you can read much into 1 poll. Lab and Con roughly static on YouGov figures if you dial down the noise. 39 – 32 – 19 seems to be the trend of recent YouGov polls.
Looking at the polls as a whole, Con still seem to be slipping back a bit, LD have crossed over the 20 point average whilst Lab hover around 30 – 31. Despite recent events, the polls stubbornly won’t move more than a couple of points. Let’s see what tonight offers does for us.
Personally I don’t think the debates will make much difference to people’s voting intention, initially there may be an immediate reaction in the polls and Cameron will obviously come across as best.
I bet Gordon must be regretting agreeing to the debates now though, he gambled thinking he was so far behind he had nothing to lose but with the polls closing it may be a gamble that backfires except in the unlikely event he comes across the best
A few people still giving Angus Reid the time of day? It’s now such an outlier that it would skew the results wildly and I’m afraid it would give you the wrong projection surely
Someone said YG polls not representative because they go to people registerd with them? That’s not correct. I have been regustered with YG for two years and they have never polled me for the election. Also I thought they contact people by phone not via their website
Tories clearly leading as of sky news.
Clegg looked very impressive for most of ther debate and brown was steady. Cameron was almost non existent on policy.
Anthony
I disagree. I nearly signed up to Yougov opinion polling about 6 months ago, so I could have a say in political polls if asked. Sure if they have signed up 350,000 it is possible I may never have been asked. All I am saying is that it is possible for a motivated party to organise sufficient numbers to join ahead of the election, for them to have a say in the polling.
Everyone knows this apparent upsurge for the LIBS will be a tiny blip which will be forgotten in the polling booth.
When will these polls appear in the summary table, please?
I have been with YouGov for several years now – I was with them at the time of the last election. In the last couple of months I have been polled maybe 2 or 3 times on the general election, as well as once or twice a year outside that.
I am sure Anthony will correct me, but the way YouGov works is that it creates its representative sample by weighting by previous vote. It doesnt matter if 50000 tory activists signed up ni the hope of getting polled, as long as they all answered correctly to the question “Who did you vote for at the last general election” it couldnt change the result. Of course, You Gov may only poll those that it know what they voted for at the last election, ie those who were registered in 2005.
Anthony, let’s not lose sight of these polls! – are they going to go in the list on the right-hand side?
The key here is that there are three debates. All of a sudden Clegg has a lot to lose. Another interesting feature is that if the Lib Dems surge in the polls then are they going to have a larger detrimental impact on Labour or the Conservatives.
I have another theory on the matter of Lib Dem polling however.
It has become a truism hasn’t it that Lib Dem polling cannot necessarily be translated into a uniform swing predicition.
I have argued for a long time now that the Lib Dems are unlikely to lose more than a dozen of their seats even when they were polling under 20% and the Toires were over 40%. Lib Dem success has been based on targetting of individual seats, not on general poll figures.
So it is highlight likely that a falling Lib Dem poll rating would not in fact translate into the sort of losses a uniform swing would imply (and a uniform swing is what these polls work on lets not forget).
But similarly, the reverse could also be true. A RISING Lib Dem poll rating will not necessarily translate into the sort of seat gains that a uniform swing would imply.
Indeed, in Tory-Lib Dem marginals, a rising Lib Dem poll rating will probably save all but a few of those Lib Dem seats. But they would still be highly unlikely to make great inroads into Tory held seats. Solihull and Eastbourne aside, all the rest would most likely be held. And a rising Lib Dem rating would have a similar effect in Lib-Lab marginals. Oh yes, you may get the odd couple here and there, but no great sweep of Labour marginals.
By contrast, the increasing Liberal vote could have a massive impact on the crucial Lab-Con marginals. Here, it could actually make it easier for the Conservatives to gain seats that they would otherwise have failed to pick up.
So in conclusion, I think we now have to consider the possibility of a result looking like this:
Cons 37%
Lab 31%
LD 23%
But in terms of seats, the Lib Dems may still fail to reach 70, and the Tories might (MIGHT mind you) pick up more Labour seats than otherwise would be the case on a simple Lab-Con swing.
Interesting times indeed…
The main parties must now concentrate on countering the Lib Dem threat. The Tories for obvious reasons, but also Labour. And perhaps they are now realising that…