ComRes’s poll tonight has topline figures of CON 35%(-1), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 21%(+2). There is no sign of the Conservative manifesto boost here… but neither should there be, ComRes’s daily polls are running a day behind YouGov’s ones and the fieldwork for ComRes was done on the 12th and 13th, so much would have been before the Conservative manifesto launch and the press reaction to it. ComRes’s daily polling is just Mon-Wed, so we won’t have another GB poll from them until after the leaders debate (though they are doing some sort of instant reaction poll straight after tomorrow’s debate).

There is also a new marginals polls in the Telegraph, carried out by Crosby/Textor in 100 marginal seats. We don’t have tables for the poll or details of the methodology and obviously we do not have a national poll to compare it to so as to draw comparisons between marginal and other seats, so we can’t tell much from it. Even if we did though, the results are not particularly enlightening – it shows a swing of 6 points in marginal seats, so not vastly different from any of the other marginal seat polls we’ve seen.

UPDATE: According to Mike Smithson the ComRes daily poll is a “rolly-poll” like Populus did in 2005 – each day they interview a fresh sample of 500 people, with the figures reported each day being a combination of the two most recent samples – this means half of each day’s figures are actually the same as the previous days figures. The methodological implications are firstly that the polls are not independent – if you get a funny looking poll and the next days agrees with it, it doesn’t really support it, because it’s half the same poll (it also means one really dodgy sample will pollute multiple polls, in 2005 Populus had the misfortune of getting one ropey sample over a bank holiday weekend, which lead to them having outlandish results in their poll for several days as it worked its way through). The second problem it raises is that they only have 24 hours to contact each day’s sample of 500, leaving hardly any time to re-contract people who do not answer the phone.

UPDATE 2: There is also a Harris poll in the Metro. Topline figures are CON 37%(nc), LAB 29%(+2), LDEM 18%(-4). I can’t see any fieldwork dates in the Metro report, so don’t know when it was actually done.


94 Responses to “ComRes/Indy/ITV – 35/29/21”

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  1. @Eion

    I see your analysis my friend but the bottom line is the the Con have not dropped below 36% and Lab have not risen above 33%.

    Barring something special these are probably the realistic high and low points for both parties

    So the best LAb can hope for is to be 3% behind on the popular vote and be the biggest party by a few seats.

    Not much of a rallying cry to the troops I suspect

  2. Eoin – it’s perfectly OK to call a rogue a rogue if that’s how you see it.

    But I think Colin is right to point at your rambling. As far as his “belligerence” goes, you have to remember he’s probably still sore that he’s had to leave “Bella Blonde” in the garden with the bumble bees and the wig.

    Perhaps Cameron’s performance has produced a bounce?

    And perhaps the debates will produce a continuing bounce for him, or even a new one for Brown, or one for Clegg.

    I think all Tory-supporting posters are entitled to find positives in this evening’s polls.

  3. @RAF
    The gains from the marginal poll really depends on what seats were polled.

    It is likely that like many of the previous polls it could be the cons target seats from 50 to 150. If that was the case then youd have to add annother 50 seats or so to that. In which case the cons would have a majority. Once we have the details then we will find out.

  4. The Telegraph’s analysis of their marginals poll seems a touch implausible. It’s presented as positive news for the Conservatives, but has them not making a single gain from the Lib Dems.

    If* these are the Tories first 100 target seats, and they are not even capturing the likes of Eastleigh and Cheltenham then surely that puts a majority out of reach?

    *(They don’t say which seats these are, of course…)

  5. @Eoin

    Sorry Cons not dropped below 35%

    Sorry

  6. @John Fletcher- I dont expect the Tories will ever drop below 36%. Certainly, I have never thought it likely…

  7. @MATT
    So your point is that if the Telegraph had a UNS of just 3%, but a marginals premium of +3%; that UNS’s higher than 3%, could actually result in much larger marginal swings?

    Well yes, possibly. But a 6% marginals swing is already huge, and the the Crosby survey has the tories of 43%. Is it really at all probable that the Tories will poll higher than that in the marginals. I’m really doubt that.

    Don’t get me wrong. It is an encouraging poll for the Tories. But some will be surprised that they are not doing better.

  8. My ramblings were deliberate- I deliberately inserted a conversational tone to talk through the thought process whereby a i reached my decision

    I consciously found rambling preferable to unsubstantiated pronuncement

    eg… YG 41% is a rogue (which may I point out I did not say)

    Anyway, if I am graceful to accept BPIXs ICMs and such things as rogues then I feel I am entitled to call it the other way if I see it that way

  9. Re: Marginal Poll

    I think the more pertinent question is what Tory lead the same polling company would give in the national share of the vote (at the date given). If it were similar to Populus or ComRes’s polls yesterday, it would show a much greater Lab-Tory swing in the marginals. This would be good news for the Conservatives. If, however, it showed a larger Tory lead in the national vote (i.e. 6%+), this would indicate that the Tories are not doing as well in marginal seats as they would like, or currently require to obtain an overall majority.

  10. Extract from the Telegraph:

    The poll by Crosby/Textor was carried out in 100 marginal seats; 80 held by Labour and 20 by the Liberal Democrats.

    43 per cent of voters questioned said they would vote Conservative, 31 per cent Labour and 20 Lib Dem.

    Labour have dropped five points since the 2005 election in these seats, while the Tories have gained seven points, the poll showed.

  11. @Roland – “You comics should read the marginal poll, now that is a larf.”
    The swing of 6% may suggest a weakening Tory lead compared to the last marginals poll, although the constituencies may be different. Does this explain the merriment?

    @Colin (10.23pm) – this doesn’t sound like the long standing poster Colin. Are you the original or a new poster?

    @RAF – the marginals poll as reported on ITV also showed virtually no swing LC/Con apparently.

    Three thoughts before I retire tonight. Firstly, why is YG now showing the highest Tory scores after establishing a long period as the lowest? Secondly, there is an odd paradox of the polls suggesting a huge swing to the Tories in historic terms, but a result that will be seen as a failure. Thirdly, I’m probably the only one here who thinks the leaders debates are a backward step for democracy. Uber rehearsed answers in an ultra controlled environment leading to a sterile and largely fruitless outcome. In the meantime we see less of the candidates as they hole up and prepare for the debate, with the result of actually less air time and less on the street campaigning.

  12. john tt

    Thanks

    I like “I think all Tory-supporting posters are entitled to find positives in this evening’s polls.”-but this one is passing on the entitlement-it’s far less stressful.

    Colin Green

    Thanks for the graph update.
    They are great.
    You have probably said before-but how is the mid point calculated?

    Thanks

  13. @Rob Sheffield

    He is going to have to do a deal with nick clegg IMHO based on the current data.

    _________________________________________

    IMHO I dont think he will.

    DC is no different to GB he is a hard headed politician and will put his own political survival above everything else as they all do.

    If the cons are the largest party short of a few, or with a majority of a few all he has to do is govern as an administration passing only popular laws until he spots a week point in the opposition, put them on the sopt with a vote of confidence. go to the Country and win with a thumping majority.

    IMHO he will play Clegg like a fish on a line.

  14. I don’t know if anyone has noticed but the ‘other’ others (i.e. not BNP, SNP, PC, UKIP or Green) is standing at 8% and in the previous three polls was 6, 7, 7 points respectively. Before this daily series started ‘other’ others barely registered and in 2005 they only accounted 1.3% of the vote.

    Mike Smithson has indicated that this was a known and believed resolved issue with Comres polls. It appears its back. It is not possible that the other ‘others’ make up 8% of the electorate especially when ‘others’ as a whole are shrinking in most other polls…..

    I think its fair to say that these polls need to be treated with caution….

  15. @RAF,

    “Well yes, possibly. But a 6% marginals swing is already huge, and the the Crosby survey has the tories of 43%. Is it really at all probable that the Tories will poll higher than that in the marginals. I’m really doubt that.”

    I’m not saying it’s positive for the Tories at all. Merely that we have incomplete information without a national poll by the same polling company. It’s, therefore, impossible to judge how much more the marginal swing is than the UNS.

    Personally, I think the marginal swing is greater than the UNS, but not exceptionally so. This is merely based on a hunch though.

  16. @Eoin Clarke

    I find your approach to the fluctuating data very thoughtful, unrattled and objective. Excellent!

    I hope your predicted graph (last night) continues its convergence up to 6/5.

  17. @Rob Hist
    I really doubt the survey was of the 50-150 seats. At no point in the article did the reporter refer to either supermarginals, or to a percentage range beyond the usual marginals range.

    But you could be right. Time will tell.

  18. Matt, I disagree.

    If the marginals poll has been carried out properly and we have to assume that, then this figure can be taken by itself since all changes will only come in marginals.

    It is significant that the analysis does point out that Labour would lose 74 seats but the Liberals NONE.

    On this basis the Tories would be about 40 short which also accords with the 6% swing this poll shows. Slightly lower than the 6.3% we had the other day. So really no change despite the headlines.

  19. @Matt,

    Im off out but Anthony gave some feedback on that report you might like to take a look at, it is on the previous thread.

    Nite :)

  20. Fascinated by Yougov bouncing around. Of course, it could all be random variation, but it would be interesting (and possible) to pick out events that should boost one party or another, add ’em up after the event and see if there is any evidence that Yougov was picking up day-day variation in people’s thinking.
    Of course, we would have to pick the events in advance – and not fall prey to post-hoc selection.

  21. @Rosie

    Ta :) :) :)

    Tomorrow…….

  22. Anthony,

    I borrowed your word ‘ropey’ form your paragraph and look at the trouble it got me in.

  23. It must be quite a shock for Tory supporters to find themselves only 2% higher than William Hague polled in 2001 when Blair won a majority of 167.

  24. Eoin: You mentioned that Labour’s closing of the gap has lessened slightly: it’s noteworthy that the Lib Dems are actually picking up in each of the three weeks you show and at an INCREASING rate.

  25. That telegraph poll is very sneaky as it is split unevenly over 100 Labour (80) and Lib Dem (20) marginals. Imagine this situation:

    in the 80 Labour ones the vote share is something like:
    Labour 40, Conservative 35 and Lib Dem 10

    And in the 20 Lib Dem ones
    Labour 10, Convervative 35 and Lib Dem 40

    Without any change in voting it then follows that the conservatives are “winning” across these seats with the vote share split as:
    Labour: 34, Conservative 35 and Lib Dem 16

    Now throw in a few points swing towards the conservatives, and its no wonder they are “winning in key seats”.

    Of course, I have made a lot of assumptions there, but my point is that without knowing the voting share across those marginals from 2005, its impossible to draw conclusions from the results of the poll.

    The terrible reporting of “stories” like that is frustrating.

  26. Anyone think the LDs may hit 25% in the next few days?

  27. Andy JS

    I’ll go one further and say they’ll hit 26% after the debate and manifesto launch

  28. @Nick – totally agree. The media has been far more guilty of spinning than any party.

  29. @ Andy JS

    I still recall my prediction of 36/32/26. It would leave others at just 6%, but there is still a chance it couls happen.

    Is Harris’s Con+8 the lowest lead they have held?

  30. LDs in Scotland

    My usual gripe – little polling here!

    However, in Scotland YouGov polls this month, LDs have never been higher than 15%. Enough to hold their Scottish seats, I imagine, but means the E&W LD support has to be a point or 2 higher than on GB pollin.

  31. On BBC news the Telegraph article is being quoted verbatim by people who I presume don’t know what they are saying.

    AW I think a service should be done by getting hold of the information and if our supposition, as explained by KIrk is correct, the Telegraph should be asked to correct the article. (if so of course but what else could it be – the Lib Dem snippet was intriguing and points to Kirk’s guess as being likely).

    I am sure your pollster friend will not want his work to be represented.

  32. Oh dear it’s late. I meant ‘misrepresented’.

  33. Anthony, I wonder have I misunderstood how a ‘swing’ is calculated, I thought that this 12 point lead in the telegraph would equal a swing of 7.5%?

    My understanding was that it is the gap that existed between the parties at the last GE plus the gap now all divided by two

    i.e. swing = 3 + 12 / 2 = 15 / 2 = 7.5%

    Is this incorrect?

    If this is correct that means that the 6% swing being quoted above would be wrong and that we should be looking at 7.5% swing.

  34. @Surbiton,

    “Matt, I disagree.

    If the marginals poll has been carried out properly and we have to assume that, then this figure can be taken by itself since all changes will only come in marginals.”

    I think you are missing the point I was trying to make. I was not saying that the poll is not useful in predicting the GE result, merely that we can’t see how much greater the marginal swing is (if at all) without having a national poll by the same polling company.

  35. @Matt,

    I could not have put it better

  36. COLIN

    “Colin Green. Thanks for the graph update. They are great. You have probably said before-but how is the mid point calculated?”

    The mid point is the average of 9 polls: The poll on the date in question plus the 4 previous polls and the 4 following polls. It gives a rolling average without any time lag.

  37. COLIN

    Thanks for that……so the graph is four polls in arrears as it were?……….or have I misunderstood

  38. @Alec at 10:49 pm
    “I’m probably the only one here who thinks the leaders debates are a backward step for democracy. Uber rehearsed answers in an ultra controlled environment leading to a sterile and largely fruitless outcome. In the meantime we see less of the candidates as they hole up and prepare for the debate, with the result of actually less air time and less on the street campaigning.

    The same view was expressed on Newsnight Scotland

  39. @Anthony

    For my guidance, why was my last post moderated?

  40. @COLIN

    “Thanks for that……so the graph is four polls in arrears as it were?……….or have I misunderstood”

    The Red, Blue and Yellow points are correct and up to date. The black trend lines are also correctly located. If you draw a vertical line on a particular date, the trend line is accurate on that date. The latest point on the trend line is always 4 polls earlier in date than the latest poll, which recently is only a day or two.

  41. If you get some time Anthony, I’d like to see a posting about the difficulties of eve-of-poll polling; there’s a bank holiday just three days before polling day, which is going to upset figures. Are there likely to be many pollsters trying to get a Tuesday-Wednesday sample, or are some going to accept bank holiday samples in their final polls?

  42. Richard – it’ll be a trade off. Squeezing fieldwork into two days is itself a negative, but then so is starting the fieldwork off on a bank holiday Monday. If there is a problem with people being away on the Monday though, they can always ring them back on the Tuesday.

  43. Colin

    Thanks again.

    I like it very much-think it tells the story much better than selected numbers

  44. Hi there re descussions yesterday about how polls effect currencies and how some of you said that I was talking tosh, below is an article from Bloomberg today.

    April 15 (Bloomberg) — U.K. consumer confidence fell in March by the most since July 2008 as the election due within weeks fueled Britons’ doubts about the economy, Nationwide Building Society said.

    The index of sentiment fell 9 points from February to 72, erasing the gains in confidence seen so far this year, the customer-owned lender said in an e-mailed statement today. A gauge measuring expectations for the economy in the next six months fell 11 points to 105.

    The pound rose against the euro today after a poll showed the Conservatives’ lead over Labour widened, easing concern the election will produce a government too weak to cut the budget deficit. The currency climbed 0.5 percent to 87.8 pence per euro as of 9:25 a.m. in London, and was up 0.1 percent against the dollar at $1.5464.

    Swing Seats

    The Crosby/Textor poll in the Daily Telegraph today showed 43 percent of voters questioned in 100 key swing seats said they would vote Conservative, while 31 percent supported Labour. The poll included 1,394 responses taken from April 9 to April 13. Labour’s support dropped 5 points in these constituencies since the 2005 election, while the Conservatives gained 7 points. End of report.

    As you can see from this report the uk economic data was very poor and that should lead to a weak pound but in fact sterling strengthened due to polling data and the fact that it is hoped that there will not be a hung parliment.

    Very happy that this data came out the very next day to back up what I was saying yesterday and to Howard especially who so kindly said I was talking tosh, maybe I do know what I am talking about. Also as you said it would take a lot of people with the same idea and a lot of spare cash to move the markets. Well Howard across the world not just London there a thousands of people with big wallets ready and waiting.

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