Tuesday round up

D minus 23
Today’s polls:
YouGov/Sun (12th-13th Apr) CON 39%(nc), LAB 31%(-2), LDEM 20%(nc)
Populus/Times (12th-13th Apr) CON 36%(-3), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 21%(nc)
ComRes/Independent/ITV (11th-12th Apr) CON 36%(-1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 19%(-1)
Angus Reid/Political Betting (11th-12th Apr) CON 38%(+1), LAB 28%(+2), LDEM 22%(nc)

Four new polls tonight. The one that will get the most attention is Populus, who have the lead right down to 3 points, however the sad truth is polls that show the extreme leads and the sharp movements get the attention from the media, but they are no more likely to be right than the rather dull ones not showing much movement at all (if anything, it’s the other way round).

While Populus and ComRes are showing the polls narrowing, YouGov’s poll tonight shows it widening again – back to the sort of figures they were showing last week – so we have some conflicting patterns, and a lot of this back and forth is probably just random sample error. On top of that, we are actually in a rather turbulent time – yesterday Labour got a good boost of media coverage from their manifesto launch, today the Conservatives have, tomorrow the Lib Dems will and then we are straight into the first debate.

In other news, we’ve had a ComRes poll for the Indy&ITV two days in a row now. This is apparently part of a daily poll by them for 3 days a week – Monday to Wednesday. I am assuming that this rather strange rota is because there isn’t a News at Ten on Saturday and Sunday and there are leaders debates on Thursdays. Why they aren’t doing Friday I don’t know!

478 Responses to “Tuesday round up”

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  1. Adam is talking ‘tosh’. I got this word from Phil Woolas who had to fight to be heard on C4 just now (we turned off the sound eventually). They really have to do something about these self important interviewers like Jon Snow. They approach every interview with an agenda and deprive the viewer of information.

    Woolas said ‘the facts are….’ and that was the last we heard! it was even worse from Huhne and Grayling who succumbed to Snow’s invitation to be confrontational. A real turnoff.
    The Lib Dem leader has already said they will support any government in ensuring stability, so the only reason that anyone would start off a charge on sterling is to see if they can get a rush going and back out at the right moment Soros style.
    In fact a coalition government is forced to be realistic about the government’s finances. Adam has no more idea than I whether a gamble like he proposes would work. Only if there were enough fools with enough spare cash would such have a chance of succeeding.

  2. @Julian,

    chesst- nostravia , dovejecnya (I cant spell Polish – I can just tlak a little)

    can we split him?

  3. @EOIN
    That looks like Czech to me.
    It’s a deal. Which half do you want?

  4. @Julian,

    Blame my son he teaches me what he learns in school… they have polish classess twice a week

    can I have the bottom half…?

  5. @EION
    The bottom half’s yours.
    Polish classes? What a cultural school he must go to.

  6. The interviewers are in the main disrespectful to most politicians, and when they talk to the public they ask them questions then prompt the answer. There is little objectivity these days when they just follow the agenda of their editors.

  7. Media bias
    Well the woman on C4 ‘from the city’ can expect a cheque from Ashcroft in the post after the report I’ve just heard on GB’s ‘mistake’ . Apparently they only took the risks because GB ‘paraded himself around the city encouraging them’. The poor dears had no mind of their own at all. Naughty GB!

  8. @Julian,

    Well it beats my all boys catholic grammar….

    Although it is stilla Catholic school, he has multi-genders (including two gays) And a host of nationalities…. They had a mass for the polish president and his wife today as it happens.

  9. @ ROSIE P

    Grayling didn’t have time to give a full explanation but what he did say sounded convincing enough to me (& I am not a fan of his by any stretch of the imagination).

  10. Damn dinner parties!! Oh well, I’ll be back for YouGov.
    (It’s my teenage feeding/nagging programme tonight. Numbers up by 200%!!!)

  11. @ HOWARD

    Apparently they only took the risks because GB ‘paraded himself around the city encouraging them’. The poor dears had no mind of their own at all.
    In the short-term this is a punch on the jaw for Brown.

    But…. in lambasting him for failing to regulate, Cameron & the media are setting a Pro-Regulatory tone. Governments ought to intervene & they ought to regulate for the public good.

    DC etc should have accepted GB taking responsibility with good grace & said, “He’s being too hard on himself, hind-sight is a wonderful thing.”

    They may have painted themselves into a pro-regulatory corner via their over-blown reaction. We shall see………

  12. Ok folks,

    A study has been completed in the US on online polling. ABC news ran it. In the interests of open discussion i attach the detaisl so you can judge for yourself.

    type “Group Issues a Warning on Opt-in Online Surveys”
    April 09, 2010 7:00 AM into google and you will find it i am sure.

  13. RE: Exposure on the news….

    to repeat something I and a number of others have said before.

    the general public are completly disinterested in the election, the bbc are already getting complaints over the level of coverage. no election story has made the top ten read on the bbc web site for a few days now.

    The bigest winner in this election is apathy.

    Even with a 2 party coallition they are unlikely to have a mandate from the electorate, just a mandate from those who could be bothered to vote.

    I will buck the trend and predict a record low turnout

  14. Two “l”s in alliteration.

    I never would call il duce a Lying Poll

    I never posted as Bella and I appeal to AW to clear me.

    I chinned Bruce Blue for using my computer in my lunch break, so I’ve been in HR all afternoon since then.

  15. @John TT,

    in the interests of innocence until proven guilty- i withdraw my suspicions. :) Is it possible Bruce Blue posed as Bella?

  16. I have always been amused by the contradiction. On the one hand there is “why didn’t the government do something about this?” followed by the “who are they to tell me how to run my life?”. Or the other one “the government should stop spending money…” followed by “why doesn’t the government give us more”. On the latter this is the I don’t want to pay tax but I want to have the best public services scenario. It seems we want our cake and eat it as well. Just an observation.

  17. Eoin & Julian- my bottom half feels much more secure now!

    Re Bruce Blue – would you like me extract a confession? It’ll entail another carpetting in HR, but it’d be worth it.

  18. poll alert

    41-32-18 in tomorrows sun just now on SN

  19. already a new thread !!!!

  20. John TT,

    You will need to switch off your internet at lunch…

    yesterday when you were on lunch, the following was posted from your John TT

    john t t
    Greengrass -the last thing we want on this thread is a discussion of a Polish migrant worker and his struggle to be ecumenical with The Truth (that was at 1.20pm yesterday)

  21. @ JOHN TT – “Eoin & Julian- my bottom half feels much more secure now!”

    Your top half isn’t. That belongs to me. And I still think you’re guilty.

  22. Amber
    Does the car worker from Brum give any more about it than the fellow from Gone with the Wind?

  23. SimonK
    I will buck the trend and predict a record low turnout

    Tory outright victory assured if so Simon Apathy their best weapon

  24. Howard: My own “firm but fair” approach to interviewees is to seat them on chairs, wired to a fairly low electrical voltage system, and tell what happens if they talk over anybody else.

    The interviewer would have a fairly high equivalent.

    It is the biggest turn-off in politics.

    If people answer questions by rambling or, typically, answering a different question they’ve just made up themselves, a decent interviewer can point that out when they’ve finished lying.

    Finally, each person involved should be allowed equal time: if they take more than their fair share on one answer, they should lose it on another. I’ve noticed on numerous occasions the Tory/labour folks shouting over each others “answers” [or lies as they’re technically known] and the Lib Dem virtually being restricted to saying sod-all. He/She should be given equal odfuscation rights.

    Me for Prime Minister is the answer.

  25. Eoin

    Ecumenical With The Truth means effectively being inclusive with The Word.

    My little pun and I’m sure the little feller would have smiled graciously (or even beatifically)

    Bruce could never have come out with anything so classy (but then he is a proddydog)

    Julian – Don’t care, as long as my seat is safe :)

  26. @John TT,

    Well as long as Brucie Blue is back in his closet, I am happy to beleive that Bella Blue was not you…..

  27. Eoin –

    I am happy to beleive that Bella Blue was not you…..

    The name’s Blonde ….Bella Blonde

    Anyway, Martini time….

  28. @ Bella Blonde
    ” Are you all mad or something? If a guy is offering you change, then you should all take it.”

    Sorry, but that is a bit too simplistic. Many of us want change, but we disagree about what kind of change is necessary. You have to remember that Cameron is a member of the old patrician ruling class, educated at Eton, with an aristocratic wife, and supported by wealthy backers like Lord Ashcroft. To Lib Dems that appears like a change back to a pre-1960s era i.e. a step back in time to an age when old money and privilege ruled.

    We want change, but a move forwards to take the power of money out of politics and a new voting system that reflects how people vote. We also want a fairer tax system that stops taxing the poor so heavily. The simple binary choice between a Labour party backed by trade unions and a Conservative party backed by the rich and big business is no longer one that appeals to many voters. That why at the last election, a quarter voted Lib Dem

    Anyway, I predict post-debate:

    Conservative 34, Labour 29, Lib Dem 27

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