Tuesday round up

D minus 23
Today’s polls:
YouGov/Sun (12th-13th Apr) CON 39%(nc), LAB 31%(-2), LDEM 20%(nc)
Populus/Times (12th-13th Apr) CON 36%(-3), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 21%(nc)
ComRes/Independent/ITV (11th-12th Apr) CON 36%(-1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 19%(-1)
Angus Reid/Political Betting (11th-12th Apr) CON 38%(+1), LAB 28%(+2), LDEM 22%(nc)

Four new polls tonight. The one that will get the most attention is Populus, who have the lead right down to 3 points, however the sad truth is polls that show the extreme leads and the sharp movements get the attention from the media, but they are no more likely to be right than the rather dull ones not showing much movement at all (if anything, it’s the other way round).

While Populus and ComRes are showing the polls narrowing, YouGov’s poll tonight shows it widening again – back to the sort of figures they were showing last week – so we have some conflicting patterns, and a lot of this back and forth is probably just random sample error. On top of that, we are actually in a rather turbulent time – yesterday Labour got a good boost of media coverage from their manifesto launch, today the Conservatives have, tomorrow the Lib Dems will and then we are straight into the first debate.

In other news, we’ve had a ComRes poll for the Indy&ITV two days in a row now. This is apparently part of a daily poll by them for 3 days a week – Monday to Wednesday. I am assuming that this rather strange rota is because there isn’t a News at Ten on Saturday and Sunday and there are leaders debates on Thursdays. Why they aren’t doing Friday I don’t know!

478 Responses to “Tuesday round up”

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  1. With all the other polls showing the gap closing, YouGov seems to be an outlier – they have th Conservatives even higher than AR!!

  2. It seems that in every poll but YouGov, Labour have narrowed the margin. The conservative manifesto from what I have heard has got mixed views and a lot of scepticism about whether they can actually go through with the things they promised while essentially trying to divert away from the economy somewhat. Their Party Political Broadcast was about society and giving more power to the people as was their manifesto. Labour’s manifesto was essentially a mixture but they did comment on the economy and the tax rises and their economical ideas for the budget. It will be interesting to see the impact on the polls for the conservatives and what line the Lib Dems take tommorow when they launch their manifesto.

  3. @CB
    Remember YouGov changed their weightings a week or so back so an 8 point lead is in old skool terms a 6.5-7 point lead. (previous thread)

    I seem to remember the change was on 5 April

  4. Remember everyone that the Conservative Manifesto was only released today, it won’t fully if much at all be in the polls today, since even the polls that occurred after it’s release won’t have given time for the news to filter down to the populous.

  5. The Conservatives seem to be all over the place. The manesfesto was utterly ludicrous, whereas Labour seems to be hammering away on a theme. I am beginning to have some doubts about DC and whether he is in touch with what people are concerned with in the country.
    There was some analysis on ITV that the Tories have a sizeable lead 12%) in the Midlands. Living in the Midlands, I can say that it is a very diverse area eg coming out of Leicester, there are many rural areas and shire towns and it may be that the Tories are sweeping these up but still not succeeding in the marginals of the Midlands. This may explain some of the discrepancy between the marginal polls and the regional analysis.

  6. @sue- love ur spin! Hope you enjoyed your weekend! Loved paxman v gove. I likd gove, very able. Future PM IMHO. I was impressed by him. Admiting mistakes was a good thing to hear wrt local govt. I agree with that.

  7. It is most interesting to see the interpretations of various people.

    Of the two manifestos launches so far, the Labour one sticks firmly in my mind- a theme of strong communism with a “one size fits all” approach to everybody.

  8. It’s strange that we’ve gone from a situation where YouGov were Labour’s only consolation, yet now the Tories seem to be getting the most cheer from them.

  9. Anthony, am I right in saying that YouGov and ComRes are the two polling companies doing private polling for the Tories? If so, we should all spare a thought for them. The Tories, that is.

  10. It annoys me so much when the media, even the BBC focus on only one poll and just dismiss the others, usually the most exciting ones.

    The quite unusual idea from the tory manifesto strikes me as quite a good idea, but its whether the general public thinks its a good idea. The Labour manifesto was quite traditional, I am really looking forward to the effect on the polls in the next few days, its anybodies guess what the effect (If any) that they will have on the polls…

  11. At least it sticks in your mind George Gardner ;)
    It just goes to show there IS such a thing as coincidence.
    The Telegraph do a hatchet job at the same time YouGov change their weightings AND seem to move to the other end of the spectrum.
    Anthony assures us there is no correlation and I DO believe him. I’m genuinely commenting on the coincidence.
    Actually, I think YouGov have been better all along at somehow picking up detail in the movement. I wonder how?

  12. I have to admit that I am – like most others – prejudiced but, I hope, not to the extent that no objectivity is possible at all for me.
    Having, for the first time, just caught the headines of the Conservative launch, and trying to see it as non-aligned potential voters may see it, it just appears very, very VERY weird and extremely contrived and phoney. [I’m comparing that to such things normally being just a BIT weird and phoney by the way, not amazingly sincere and convincing]

    I can’t understand why they think it will work to convince the people they actually need to convince.

    Where’s Roland for a cynical Tory view?

  13. Is a trend beginning to develop for LDs on YouGov? Hard to say with their share so small but…

  14. Paul Croft – I think they are actually being very clever. Sadly too clever. They have, I fear, given the electorate TOO much credit. An unusual thing which actually makes me think more of DC than I have before. He actually seems to have laid out a vision finally, but sadly it is one I think will pass many voters by.

  15. Exposure = votes

    Tories had most exposre today

    YG’s poll is th emost up to date…

    other polls will catch up tomorrow

    ironically, YG’s will probably fall a little for blue

    @Simon…. are you online?

  16. Isn’t that better defined as being stupid, Sue?

  17. Election night will be fun. 403020. I just think as yougov are sampling everyday,their data set must be find tuned. If they get the right result,it’s worth alot of money to them.

  18. The polls are as clear as mud this evening.

    Watch the YouGov concertina effect. Down to six yesterday. Up to 8 today. Expect it to rise to 10, and fall back again to 6.

    The Tories will be relieved. If YouGov had show a dip, there would have been some consternation over in the blue corner.

  19. I actually think the Con message will grow as the days go by. The same people were initially sniping about the NI reversal anoucement 2 weeks ago. At least we have a choice this time.

  20. I am not convinced by the veracity of Yougov polls for The Sun. I have a feeling that these perhaps serve the master that is paying the fee. It could be the way the polling questions are asked that skew the results.

  21. Sharp intake of breath

  22. Does anyone else think that the Con manifesto, with all it’s decentralisation and devolution, was designed to appeal to LD voters?
    Well, this LD voter was not impressed. But this LD voter does not live in a marginal, supermarginal, or suprememarginal. So DC will not care.

  23. @r huckle. I think that is nonsense. Yougov has many clients. If they get the result massively wrong, then that is not good for business. I believed that when the con lead was 2 aswell by the way. They have to be creditable

  24. @R Huckle,

    I like your posts, and it would be great if you are right but you could not be more wrong.

    Remember for weeks YG were at 4s and 5s. The Daily Telegraph accused them of the complete opposite of your accusations.

    We have a saying in Ireland : When both sides think your in the wrong- you’re doing something right!

  25. @R Huckle
    Oh boy! You’ve really opened up a Cannovaro with that one.

    I trust Anthony will come a few paces down the wicket and smack you over long off for 6 :)

  26. @RAF
    Does anyone else think that the Con manifesto, with all it’s decentralisation and devolution, was designed to appeal to LD voters?

    No. More likely to provide the meat on the skeleton of change. But IMO it will start to shred.

  27. I agree with Ben The point has been made several times by AW that the pollsters have a long term interest in being as accurate as possible in election polls. We have to accept YouGov changed their methology as they must have felt that their Polling could be improved.
    What is more worrying is the number of people who are saying that they do not intend to vote and do not understand the polices of the parties.
    These are the same people who DC wants to take charge of our local schools and Policing!

  28. Too early to say from polling evidence so far, but I think there’s a chance that the Conservative manifesto may be seen by some people as something of an abdication of responsibility. There are certainly lots of disenfranchised working class Labour voters who I think could be persuaded to vote Conservative, but the Conservatives aren’t talking about decentralising power to local government, they are essentially saying to people “step forward and fix it yourselves”. It’ll probably play very well in nice middle class areas where all of the good schools are oversubscribed but I can’t see it being broadly popular.

    I think Labour might have the right idea with their cover art though, nobody reads manifestos anyway but when the media put the two covers side by side one definitely looks more hopeful than the other.

  29. If you were a newspaper supporting a particular party, would you be happy with polls that were not helpful?

    We all know that there are many ways that polling questions can be phrased. There are a sizable number of people that have genuinely not made up their minds yet who to vote for. How many people that the polling companies phone, just say that they don’t know, which party to support ?

  30. @RAF,

    OVer mid-off?

    Vauxhall Rd end?

  31. I just don’t think the Tories will get a huge ‘bump’ with their manifesto launch. I don’t want to run schools and the police – I want paid professionals and experts to do it. I think it was all a bit confusing.

    The TV debates may or may not affect the polls – I remain to be convinced that they will sort anything out, with the restrictions that will be in place.

    It will be interesting to see if the papers ask the pollsters their opinions on the final result again this weekend.

    Roll on May 6th.

  32. There was a hugely ironic front page on the Telegraph website today. there was an article applauding the BBC for not listenign to public opinion when a new actor takes on the role of Dr Who. Basically, whenever there is a regeneration, people ring in and complain. The article was saying that the public often don’t know what is best.

    This article appeared next to a picture of DC at the manifesto launch urging the public to run things!

  33. Greengrass

    “More likely to provide the meat on the skeleton of change. But IMO it will start to shred.”

    Shredded beef is an American term. I prefer the home-grown description – mince.

  34. @RAF
    Does anyone else think that the Con manifesto, with all it’s decentralisation and devolution, was designed to appeal to LD voters?

    A further thought – the premise seems to mirror that of the the Tea Party people in the US. But just as the populace likes to complain about the government, they also like to think it should be responsible for everything. We would only have ourselves to blame if it weren’t.

    (cf. my post a couple of days ago about complaining about the nanny state at the same time as “why didn’t they do anything to prevent it?” when something goes wrong.)

  35. Fascinating. After all the campaigning there is actually very little difference in the running average.

    The Conservatives seem to bet, Labour bouncing a bit but basically stable and the Lib Dems up a fraction, others down a bit.

    Pretty much everything else is within the MoE, with a few short lived mini-spikes with major bits of publicity.

    Will the debates be game changing? I don’t know but DC seems to have the most to loose. NC is boosted just by being there. Can GB show that’great clunking fist’?

  36. @R Huckle…

    Hole is getting deeper…

    if AW was on he would point ot that YG is internet based they do not phone… lack of human interaction can only increase the accuracy.

    I refer you my first post of this thread…. It is amazing news if you are a labour party supporter

  37. @Pompey Observer

    Pre Campaign: Tory 38.6 LAb 29.7 Lib 19.3

    Week One : Tory 38.3 Lab 30.6 Lib 19.6

    Week Two: Tory 37.3 Lab 30.8 Lib 20.5

    As you can see the Tories are now -1.3%
    As you can see the Reds are now + 1.1%
    As you can see the Yellows are now +1.2%

    This trend will continue to election day.

    All April polls have been counted.

  38. @Eoin
    That would be some shot at the Oval.

  39. @Oldnat,

    Not haggis meat?

  40. @Raf,

    Not with KP or Freddie….

  41. R Huckle

    The Sun was happy to publish You Gov polls when they favoured Labour.

    Please read Anthony’s copious, well explained postings on the way polling companies work.

  42. @OldNat

    Shredded beef is an American term. I prefer the home-grown description – mince.

    I chose my term advisedly – shredding can occur when exposed to the atmosphere; mincing requires a chopping implement or machine. It will certainly go through the latter (the Dark Lord will see to that), but I believe it will fall apart without any help because it lacks a totally convincing cohesion from where I’m looking.

  43. Éoin, I agree with your version of what’s happening in the polls. The fluctuations in individual polls obscure the trend.

    Whether the polls are correct is a different matter.

  44. Eoin

    As I said, within the MoE.

    If there is a trend it is a very slow one!

  45. @PompeyObserver
    If there is a trend it is a very slow one!

    It’s the cumulative nature rather than the speed that counts. The hare an the tortoise again.

  46. @Pompey,

    Interesting adjective choice….

    “very slow”

    See you here in a week and we’ll see if that is stil your chosen phrase.

    I happen to call a 3.6% movement away from the Tories in 8 days pretty darn significant

  47. This is like the conference season. The polls won’t settle down until Sunday.

    Are these polls any good? I am doubtful. The public are apathetic, angry, cynical and confused. Too many have yet to decide what to do.

    Here’s a thought – Populus say that 50% say they are planning to watch the debate. This is nonesense. 6 million may watch, certainly not 30m people. People are lying.

    Don’t trust these polls.

  48. I take it back a little. Perhaps it is just the way the polling data is reported that is the problem.

    I just found this information from the Yougov site, which does appear to back the point, that they are just providing data, based on asking various questions.

    Suppose a Conservative Government were formed under Mr Cameron. Which of these statements comes closest to your own view?

    I would be delighted: 25%

    I would be dismayed: 38%

    I wouldn’t mind: 25%

    Don’t know: 12%

  49. @Eoin
    How would they feel if a young Robert OWen took up the offer to build.

    Ah the Lanark social entrepreneur! He gets all the credit but I believe his dad-in-law had more than a hand in this.

  50. If you are right and the trend continues that would make it, in 3 weeks,

    Con 36.35

    Lab 32.45

    L D 22.30

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