Latest YouGov figures for London
The Evening Standard have the lastest London data from YouGov’s daily polls, aggregated up and properly weighted to London demographics.
The topline figures are CON 38%(-2), LAB 35%(+4), LDEM 16%(+2). It is a significant narrowing of the Conservative lead in London since their last poll, though this one is a lot more in line with other YouGov polling. YouGov’s previous London poll showed a towering 8 point swing, whereas this one shows 5 point swing, much closer to what YouGov’s national polls are showing. On these figures, London seems to be behaving in a pretty similar fashion to the rest of the country.
(Incidentally, Joe Murphy’s commentary in the Standard takes a lot of trouble to make clear why some seats are a different colour to the party who the current MP represents due to boundary changes. I have the suspicion that there speaks a man who recieved lots of emails from readers last time round complaining about Croydon Central, etc, being the wrong colour)
David Nettleton
If Sarfraz Nawaz was the first – what did Alec Bedser bowl?
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Bedser’s stock ball was the “leg cutter”.
@ Rob,
But the lead already averaged less than 9%, even when the Tories where at their most popular a week ago. I don’t see how a 8/9% lead would, therefore, offer encouragement.
The lead before yesterday’s poll was only around 8%, so unless Labour narrow the lead to, say, at most an average of 6.5% tonight (across all pollls), I don’t see how the trend would be that positive towards Labour.
@roland
what you mean the where where a specific request had gone out for the London swing from 2001 – 2005……?!
Sorry to befuddle you
Yes The current London wide battleground swing is 5%…..less than the current UNS !!
Surbiton -it’s confirmed on the Guardian site ICM /Gdn Con 37 Lab31 LD20
Tonight’s polls are unaffected by the manifesto launches, but each party will probably get a mini-bounce just after their manifesto launch has been broadcast on the news (as with the party conferences).
Therefore I expect the Tuesday night polls to show a narrowing of the Tory lead.
Con01/ Lab 01/ Con05/ Lab 05/ Diff Con / Diff Lab
North London 29.7 52.6 30.6 42.1
0.9 -10.5
South London 31.3 42.6 33.2 36.1
1.9 -6.5
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Even here, please note, it was the Labour vote which fell [ Iraq ] . Con vote hardly increased.
@YACOBS
Thank God someone else noticed, I have been feeling like Davy Crockett at the Alamo all day. Its interesting is’nt it. I started to wonder if the comments of the 8 Horseman of the Pol polls were in some way connected to this stuff.
@Matt
“The lead before yesterday’s poll was only around 8%, so unless Labour narrow the lead to, say, at most an average of 6.5% tonight (across all pollls), I don’t see how the trend would be that positive towards Labour.”
Firstly- you are forgetting one imporatnt fact in politics ‘if you are not losing votes you are doing the first thing’.
Secondly you are ignoring the marginals/ London poll points I made which contextualise any UNS national polls. With that context 9% leads to do not (currently) equate to a 1 seat majority for the Conservatives.
Conversely- if what you are actually saying is that one days polls movements compared to the next days are something to get excited about then I think you are greatly mistaken if not a little naive….day to day movements tell us very very little.
The weekly moving trend is the preferred (though some on here prefer a 14 day trend).
Whatever happens tonight the comparison to yesterday is pretty pointless- compare tonights performances to the performance in polls 5th and 6th April to gauge the ternd.
Eoin Clarke – I was at Old Trafford in 1995 when Dominic Cork got his hat-trick. Sorry to boast about it!
Rob Sheffield
When one looks at modern London does that suprise you? It does’nt suprise me. Frankly, I think the Tories have done well to come this far in London.
Ha! so yes the unbiased bbc would of course let us know of a tory peer involved with asking for legal aid ,but as it was’nt the number one headline i /we can gather from that he has’nt and will not be doing the same ,one was’nt a labour minister also was he ?
The Guardian Poll and the YouGov poll last night may be indicating a narrowing of the polls. If the other two polls tonight show a 7-8% lead for the Tories, that becomes significant. The Labour manifesto launch today was well managed and should have a good effect on the polls tomorrow.
It’ll be interesting to see how DC responds. If they start to get the jitters we might still see a Labour majority. If they hold their nerve, they might be able to come through it.
It’s just really, really interesting.
@Yakobs
check out the BPS Feb 2010 study and you’ll be less staggered about the methods fpr dealing with DK’s….unless of course you want to be…
I’ll paste in (again as you clearly did not read the thread further up
In a detailed major survey conducted by the British Election Study team in February 2010 I quote:
“When looking at the “don’t know’s”, we find that 12.7% is actually strongly attracted to the Conservatives, 27% to Labour, and 22.4% to the Liberal Democrats. When prodding the “don’t know’s” to indicate which party they lean to, we find that those leaning to Labour have a much stronger preference for that party than leaning Conservatives have for theirs.
In other words, if, as is usually the case during election campaigns, the number of yet undecided voters declines as polling day draws nearer, Labour in particular and the Liberal Democrats to a smaller extent stand to gain more from this than the Conservatives. ”
@Rob,
“Secondly you are ignoring the marginals/ London poll points I made which contextualise any UNS national polls. With that context 9% leads to do not (currently) equate to a 1 seat majority for the Conservatives.”
True. I can understand the excitement in that.
I think I can remember AW saying here a while ago that Don’t Know’s have a pretty low likelihood to vote.
neil A
yep- and their number declines markedly as you get closer to the election.
So the polls should get more and more accurate up to the CRUCIAL eve-of-election poll numbers…
****ALERT****
ICM poll = 37/31/20
@ Neil A
ICM marginals poll weights DKs by how they voted last time but at 50% because they are less likely to vote.
The trend is with Labour.
the budget NI dip is now in the public’s distant memory.
With minimal evidence of any marginal boost it is not clear that anything under 10% lead can get the tories a majority.
YG’s poll tonight will include some people who have seen Labour’s manifesto so it could be higher than previous.
i expect tonight it will becoem much clearer how the first full 7 days of campaigning have ended.
37-31-20 = Dead Heat.
Ok, for all the “marginal” apologists, let’s give the Tories 10 more and Labour 10 less.
So, 295 – 275. GB still PM.
T37/31 (ICM)….. follows on from YG 37/31 last night..
That is now YG and ICM who confirm a big dip for the big two…
LD are not gaining….
maybe this will be the election where the smaller parties make headway.
GreenGrass will be bouncing.
Rob
Not sure why you are so keen to “de-stagger” me.
I’m not really questioning the methodologies for re-allocating undecided voters. But ultimately don’t knows are don’t know and therefore I don’t know and no-one knows. I don’t know if you know or whether you don’t know. Who knows?
Seriously though, all I was saying is that an apparently reasonably comforting poll for Labour is perhaps no necessarily quite so comforting – and of course it is no comfort to the Tories who would prefer to be further in front.
It’s funny cos a couple of weeks ago Tories would have definitely taken around a 6/7% at the end of today, given that the polls were only indicating a 2-7% Tory lead.
Since the Tories extended their lead about a week and a half ago/2 weeks ago, they’ll be disappointed that the lead isn’t bigger.
What is interesting about this campaign is that in recent elections very little has actually changed during he campaigns and the preceding few months. In general parties try to secure their arguments in the public mind six months out and just hammer away from there. this time both main parties have been forced into complete about turns – Labour from ‘Investment vs cuts’ to todays ‘responsible but radical’, while Cameron has veered from ‘the age of austerity’ to a message of a tax cutting nirvana.
The fact that the issues being pressed have changed so dramatically may suggest there is more scope for major polling shifts close to election day as the new messages warm or cool voters. My personal view is that the Tories have run from the austerity message due to poor polling responses, but have now switched tack so hard they have undermined their own credibility and given Brown a slim chance to capitalise.
On rounding the post campaign averages are as follows
The Conservative Party 38%
The Labour Party 31%
The Liberal Democrats 20%
Others 11%
I’m increasingly thinking a hung parliament, with the Tories as the largest party now looks odds on.
You can Quattro that any way you like but it is not a tory majority, not even if you spiral it, marginally boost it… nuttin.
@Alec,
I think I’d summarise it like this.
2009 – Tories have a massive lead. They take a tactical decision that they are on course for a large majority, and that the imperative is to prepare the electorate for some pretty harsh post-election measures. They figure this will shield them somewhat from the brickbats that a heavy-cutting government receives. They calculate that the negative message will cost them votes, but that they have enough spare that it is worth it.
2010 – The drain in support caused by the austerity message is a bit larger than the Tories expected, dropping their lead to a level where a majority is not guaranteed – possibly not even likely. A decision is taken to move away from “honesty” towards “electability”, on the basis that you can’t carry out the measures you think are necessary without getting elected first.
Labour on the other hand went on something of an opposite journey. From boasting about the extra spending (“investment”) they would bring in, they gradually moved towards a more austere position in order to capitalise on the tactical change the Tories had made.
The tory lead has gone from 8.9 (1-5Apr.) to 7.87 (6-12 Apr.) If you just take the last few days the lead is even shorter at 7.34%.
The Tory vote is holding up remarkably well…. It continues to be in round 38.5 and according to my calculations it has remained pretty steady for 12 days.
This will give them a lot of heart, for as long as it stays up round there they should feel reasonably confident of being the largest party.
Of course, my own prediciton, is that it will decline to 36% by polling day. But what does it matter what I think….
@SURBITON
For the “assumptions” you Labourites are making, thinking that Clegg will get in bed with Gordon Brown is a very daft assumption. Another Labour figure oh yes, but GB will not be Prime Minister. Furthermore Clegg has now stated twice that the LDs will only back the largest party, so it rather puts that particular post in the bin dont yer think. Oh yes and the marginals for which I do not apologise, are worth a lot more than 20 seats.
For the record, I’m expecting YouGov to show a Tory lead of around 6/7% tonight, if other recent polls are anything to go by.
@roland,
I agree. I have never thought a Lib Lab pact likely. It would finish the Liberals….. Shacking up with a government that can only manage a third of the vote…
dont get em wrong together they would command about 50%+ of the electorate but they would have “played cards with the devil”
Can anyone conform or deny the ‘urban myth’ that Tory-held constituencies are on average bigger than Labour ones and therefore their votes don’t go as far? Or is it that Labour is spread across the country a little more?
Opinium in Daily Express also shows Tory lead down. This poll 2 less at 8: Con 39(n/c), Lab 31(+2), LD 17(n/c)
This election is why I love politics!
So much is still up for grabs. Any result is still possible. The future direction of the country hangs in the balance.
And the polls just won’t tel us in a tight race how it will end as the margin for error and the effect of a late swing can completely change the outcome.
As always I think the campaighs for both parties will stand or fall based on ‘Events, dear boy, Events’.
People have disagreed with me when i say this but i will say it again…
the north south divide in england means that a lot of tories stick to their own patch.
England i ssegregated to proportions that only Ireland exceed in western Europe.
Roisny sor Bois, pr Epinay sur Siene is nowehere near as bad….
It leads to a lot of wasted blue votes….
Opinium in Daily Express also shows Tory lead down. This poll 2 less at 8: Con 39(n/c), Lab 31(+2), LD 17(n/c)
Off topic, but I’ve just watched an interview with Michal Kaminski, the Polish MEP who featured so much in the UK campaigning recently.
Quote; “So many people died, I don’t know who to cry for.”
He’s on the opposite political spectrum to me but it rather puts everything into perspective doesn’t it?
@EOIN CLARKE
In many ways it would suit the Tory book Eoin. Picture a 300 seat Tory Party, a 270 seat Labour party in a pact with the Lib Dems that does not work. It has many attractions compared to a 25 seats short Tory position.
BTW you did not thank me for an explanation of Quattro.
Oops sorry Surbiton -I didn’t see your post
Curtly Ambrose was the man, but no-one EVER swung a ball like Shane Waugh.
@Roland,
Oh I am sorry i forgot……
the golf consumed me…..
But I do appreciate it
@Andy W,
Yes its true. Its caused by demographic shifts, whereby the rural and suburban strongholds of the Tories gain population faster than the industrial strongholds of Labour. This means that every time the boundaries are reviewed, the average population of a Tory seat has generally risen and that of a Labour one shrunk. The boundary review tries to fix that, but they are infrequent and incomplete and so never quite catch up.
Andy W
Can anyone conform or deny the ‘urban myth’ that Tory-held constituencies are on average bigger than Labour ones and therefore their votes don’t go as far? Or is it that Labour is spread across the country a little more?
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The average size of the electorate is more or less the same. But in many safe Labour seats the turnout is low unlike many safe Tory seats where the Tories still vote in large numbers clocking up huge majorities. Labour also has a good number of finishes at 35%-45% thereby clocking up many wins. Tories have much higher numbers of 25%-35% which are substantial votes but wasted. Also , in Con-Lib marginals, the Labour vote is usually very small.
As a result , the Labour vote per seat is lower than the Tories. Putting it differently: the Labour vote is more efficiently distributed
ICM/Guardian
37 (-1) /31 (+1) /20 (-1)
On Sky news now
Andy JS – I saw Viv Richard’s last match on UK soil – Beat that !!!!
The Tories vote has dropped 0.2% (nothing really) since the campaign began.
The Labour vote has climed 0.9%
@Neil A – “…the rural and suburban strongholds of the Tories gain population faster than the industrial strongholds of Labour.”
Does that mean Tories breed more efficiently than Labourites?
Rather against the stereotype I think.
@Roland,
A Lib-Lab pact would be like a 1980s skoda…
It would just about drive, be sure to break down and probably not worth fixing if it did.
Sue Marsh
Andy JS – I saw Viv Richard’s last match on UK soil – Beat that !!!!
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I can. Was that the 60 he scored at the Oval. He walked past me up the stairs into the dressing room. He badly wanted a hundred.