The only poll I know of tonight is YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun. The topline figures there are CON 37%(-3), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 20%(+2). A fall for the Conservatives and I’ll offer my normal caveat after any interesting changes in the polls: it’s the trend that counts, so wait and see if it is repeated elsewhere. It could be a genuine shift, or it could be as transitory as the 5 point YouGov lead we had earlier in the week.

The additional questions today were a repeat of the “who is doing best in the campaign” questions that showed the Lib Dems doing so well when YouGov first asked them at the beginning of the campaign – after the first week the Conservatives come top – 32% think David Cameron had the best first week of the campaign, with Clegg and Brown equal on 16%. 25% think the Conservatives have been the most impressive in the campaign so far (16% think the Lib Dems have, with Labour last on 13%). Finally, 31% think David Cameron has been most successful in getting his message across, followed by Brown on 15% and Clegg on 13%.


461 Responses to “Conservatives down 3 in today’s YouGov poll”

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  1. @All (inc. Greengrass)

    Please, please, please … if you enter a discussion midway, make sure you know what has gone before.

    Merci.

  2. When are we gonna get an Angus Reid 13% to cheer ourselves up?

    We’re due one soon, one would think.

  3. Surbiton,

    I’m quite sure that when the Sun do a full report and analysis on the London poll tomorrow they will be completely accurate and non-partisan as to the implications.

    *cough*splutter*

  4. Al J
    Evening Standard:-

    **Labour has the consolation of looking likely to win back the Bethnal Green & Bow seat won by George Galloway in 2005. And on the basis of these figures, Gordon Brown is doing well enough to deny the Tories a victory over Transport Minister Sadiq Khan in Tooting, and to keep Left-wing champion Jon Cruddas at Dagenham and Rainham.**
    ——————————————-
    Given the demography of Tooting, it will be safe Labour 99% of the time, particularly this year. Many Iraq “dropouts” will be returning. The Labour majority is higher than 2005 figures suggest.

  5. @ Greengrass

    make my day…..I’m a lawyer.

  6. On the contrary, Surbiton – Tooting is Tory target 112 with a swing of 6.1% needed for them to take it. It used to be solid Labour, but DC wants it badly – if Khan falls it is likely that a Tory majority will follow.

  7. Surbiton
    If seats like Tooting don’t fall to the Cons -they won’t get their majority. ;-)

    No 112. on Tory Target list – Tooting Majority 5190 Swing required: 6.1 %

  8. @Marchese,

    welcome to site, btw what kind of lawyer are you?

  9. I just had a look at the Evening Standard article. I would not put money on the Tories unseating Lib Dems in all three. I live in the western suburbs of London. It will not be that easy.

  10. Al J
    Evening Standard:-

    **Labour has the consolation of looking likely to win back the Bethnal Green & Bow seat won by George Galloway in 2005. And on the basis of these figures, Gordon Brown is doing well enough to deny the Tories a victory over Transport Minister Sadiq Khan in Tooting, and to keep Left-wing champion Jon Cruddas at Dagenham and Rainham.**

    All on his own, eh? DC may be Gene Hunt but Lab have Superman, flying from constituency to constituency, rescuing candidates in distress.

  11. Eoin Clarke
    @surb,

    think bigger than that- think mother russia…… (evening Standard)
    —————————————-
    I was not referring to the Evening Standard poll. My point was about the daily YouGov which came out last night at 10pm where the Tory share went down 3%. The Sun has completely ignored it even though it was commissioned for – The Sun.

  12. @ P Will S

    Defamation and IP.

  13. WMA = 38:31:19.
    The 2-week WMA trend now has an R2 of 0.4 so below a convincing significance, but the trend over the time to the election has an R2 of 0.6 and has gone up by 3.5 over the period, which would suggest a CLead of 10.5 by my “rule of thumb”

    So although everyone thinks the Conservatives have had the best of the 1st week, the CLead has been essentially static over that period. Interesting….

  14. Rob Sheffield “whilst- ironically-being rude about me with his nose in the air! ” Touchy! Your spelling is excellent, I was actually being rude about myself amongst very few others, but not you! (you were being rude though)

  15. @Marchese,
    Just curious what type of law it was, being a law student, in case it was anything I’m studying this year,lol.

  16. Tooting’s an interesting one. Formerly safe as houses for Labour, but areas in the constituency like Earlsfield, Balham and Tooting itself are becoming inexorably middle class as house prices in neighbouring areas like Wandsworth and Clapham have become prohibitive.

    I would expect a very tight struggle in Tooting with the odds slightly in favour of Mr Khan prevailing, but with a reduced majority of ca 1,500.

  17. @mitz

    “On the contrary, Surbiton – Tooting is Tory target 112 with a swing of 6.1% needed for them to take it. if Khan falls it is likely that a Tory majority will follow.”

    But Mitz- the swing in this London ES poll is less than that required to take Tooting !!

    This poll- and its swing- is more accurate for projecting Tooting than either a national UNS poll *or* a pan-regional marginal’s poll. So you can forget the 6.3% ICM marginal’s swing now you have this London-specific poll.

    So- on the evidence of this poll- Tooting will stay Labour.

  18. GreenGrass

    **All on his own, eh? DC may be Gene Hunt but Lab have Superman, flying from constituency to constituency, rescuing candidates in distress**

    It must be working lol ;-)

    @Surbiton
    I wold agree that Cons will find it difficult to unseat LibDems. I am anxious though for Susan Kramer in Richmond Park and Tom Brake in Carshalton and Wallington. Must be on a knife edge!! I have no evidence -only that their majorities are very slim.

  19. Rob,

    I sincerely hope you are right – I have an emotional attachment to Tooting as I lived there for 7 years and two of my children were born there. The poll suggests that if the election was tomorrow it would just about be safe – good-oh – but it is right slap bang in the middle of a Geoffrey Boycott corridor of uncertainty.

    I would call Tooting one of the most resonant indicators for the fight as a whole. If it turns blue, you can bet that DC will be a PM with a majority. If it stays red, then things will get interesting…

  20. I would call Tooting one of the most resonant indicators for the fight as a whole. If it turns blue, you can bet that DC will be a PM with a majority. If it stays red, then things will get interesting…

    *******************

    I agree – I think Tooting will be Labour’s “Basildon moment”.

  21. I think Hammersmith is safe for the Conservatives: v strong candidate and widely disliked opponent. Labour seem almost to have given up, though not completely by any means. Seem to be 2-3x as many C volunteers.

    No idea about the LibDem marginals – will depend a lot on tactical voting.

    I suspect in the end there will be a significant pro-C swing in the London marginals. Brown’s Core Vote strategy will be playing well on solid Labour seats and alinenating swing voters in marginals.

  22. Marchese

    just today John Rentoul is quite good on the factors surrounding opinion polls: I cannot give you a link so I will paste it in here:

    “Meanwhile, in my new role as one of the IoS’s team of Randall and Rentoul (right), I have provided this guide to opinion polls:

    **You can’t predict elections by asking just 1,000 people:

    Yes, you can: if they are a good enough sample, their answers can be adjusted – or weighted – so that the sample matches the total electorate by sex, age, class and, in YouGov’s case, newspaper readership. The findings should be accurate to within two percentage points 95 per cent of the time. The polls had problems in the past with Labour supporters being more willing to take part and being less likely actually to vote, but in 2005 they were pretty accurate and in the most recent big Labour-Tory test YouGov got Boris Johnson’s margin over Ken Livingstone right in London 2008.

    **The polls are all over the place/public opinion is unusually volatile.

    No, they aren’t, and no, it isn’t. You would expect the figure for the support for any party to vary by four points (two up, two down) in 19 polls out of 20 carried out using the same method. Hence the difference between two parties’ share of the vote – the figure for the Tory lead – could vary by up to eight points even if people’s views remain unchanged. Most of the time, polls from the same company tend not to vary that much.

    **But the Conservatives are spending a fortune in the marginal seats where the election will be decided, so the national polls are useless.

    Money can make a difference, but not that much. An Ipsos-Mori poll in the marginals last week suggested, like previous surveys, that the Conservatives are doing better in these seats than nationally. This could have the same effect as adding one or two points to the Tory lead in national polls.

    **So the seven-point lead in your Poll of Polls means David Cameron is sitting pretty; why is everyone talking about a hung parliament?

    Because a seven-point lead, or even a nine-point lead, may not be enough for the Conservatives to win a majority in the Commons. Two reasons: even after new boundaries, Labour constituencies tend to be smaller than Tory ones and so need fewer votes to win; plus Tory voters behave differently, tending to come out to vote in safe seats where Labour supporters tend not to bother. That is why it is possible for Labour to win more seats than the Tories with fewer votes.

    **Who is going to win, then?

    Whichever party wins most seats is the short answer. That will be the Conservatives if their share of the vote is five percentage points ahead of Labour’s. The problem is that their average seven-point lead in the polls could conceal a systematic bias one way or the other. If so, it is unlikely to be more than a few points either way – but, this time, a small difference could make a big difference to the result. Different polls suggest anything from Labour being the largest party in a hung parliament to a small majority for Cameron. Meanwhile, there are the “events” of the campaign itself.”

  23. @nbeale

    “I suspect in the end there will be a significant pro-C swing in the London marginals”

    the current actual data (i.e. evidence) suggests that your personal opinion/ hunch is completely wrong !!!

  24. Marchese,

    If by “Basildon moment” you mean that Labour holding Tooting will be a precurser to winning a shock majority – well, I suppose stranger things have happened…!

  25. N Beale’s calculations are correct.

    They are just a long term trend analysis.

    Him and I differ on how best to calculate but it does not invalidate his calculations.

    I happen to think a 0.8% moveemnt in Labour’s favour over the last week compared to April’s polls is significant.

  26. Eoin

    do you mean the 10% national lead calculation of his or the comment about a ‘significant Conservative swing’ that I specifically responded to?

    The latter is not borne out by the current data in the form of the YG London poll…….

    If the former and all those r square’s and MA’s…I am afraid I pass those ones over.

  27. rob,

    Your comment though not how I would put it seemed logical and authoritative.

    I mean his WMA

  28. @MARCHESE
    Welcome to the site. Ignore the rudeness. A lot of people on this site are really really clever at the polling thing. I’m an English teacher and barely understand statistics but I still post anyway. I console myself with the fact that most of the others have atrocious spelling and grammar.

  29. I admit that I find it a bit odd from NBeale, who is clearly one of the most statistics savvy posters here with his mastery of Rsquared this and WMA trend that, should come out with an opinion regarding London marginals that appears to run against the data.

    NBeale, I am now prepared for you to shoot me down by explaining in laymen’s terms why you said what you did about a “significant pro-C swing in the London marginals”.

  30. @Mitz

    What makes this election unusual is that not only do an enormous number of seats have to change hands (not unusual in itself), but that there is a widely held belief – among all persuasions – that that scenario could transpire. So I should correct myself and say that there are about 50 potential Basildons! May 6 looks to be a very interesting night.

    I’m still unsure whether taking May 7 off work is the sensible option. As I recall I had a job interview on May 2 1997 which did not go at all well.

  31. Julian,

    Please, please, in the name of all that is good tell me, what can be done about spelling and grammar? Does nobody care any more?

  32. @Rob

    Thank you – very helpful!

  33. Marchese,

    I was back at work this morning after a week off. One of the first things I did was book May 7th as a day off. Only sensible, isn’t it?

  34. @ ALL MY UKPR FRIÉNDS

    London has obviously heard about Ambér’s crystal ball. I am delighted they have fallen into line so quickly ;-)

  35. @Mitz

    A day off in bed with a hangover is a wasted day off IMHO!

  36. @Mitz
    Sorry. Their don’t seem to be nothing we can do about it. Is their?

  37. YouGov poll is going to be interesting today. Anecdotely feels like its moving back to the old 5% lead again..

    Not sure whether the manifesto launches will impact the votes or not. Will people remember that Labour broke two pledges from 2005? (I doubt it…)

    – Not to raise the top rate of tax
    – A referendum on the Lisbon Treaty (or its earlier form)

  38. I have a vision of what Ambér’s crystal ball looks like. Imagine the glowy bit at the end of Dr Who’s somic screwdriver, only as big as a paperweight, and glowing red, not green (as the new Doctor’s do-everything device does).

  39. Agh! Sonic!

    JG – your rite – theirs know hope.

  40. Marchese,

    Depends if it’s a happy hangover, or a bleeuuurgh one.

  41. Julian – surely its “grammer” you should know better :)

    In my completely impartial but nevertheless no-doubt about to be dis-credited opinion, the Tories are falling into a big elephant trap by making an issue of Labour’s choice of venue for their manifesto launch

    They invite satire on the suitability of potential Conservative launch pads.

    Best to keep quiet about this one. Or at least try to take the initiative by describing how much cheaper they would have had it built.

  42. @Amber – “London has obviously heard about Ambér’s crystal ball. I am delighted they have fallen into line so quickly .”
    So it isn’t just a tool for prediction. It’s some kind of weapon which will obliterate any constituency which dares to step out of line?

  43. @ MITZ

    I’m LOL at your last few posts – lovely ;-)

  44. Amber

    Next time you have your crystal ball to hand can you please let me know if anything tricky’s going to come up at work on 7 May? Ta.

  45. Cheers m’dear. One does one’s best. Every now and then I make a stab at a serious point as well…

  46. @ JULIAN GILBERT

    No obliterating, my dear. I’m one those sappy lefties who thinks the whole world should just get along without anybody needing weapons or being violent.

  47. I think Labour have just thrown the general election away with that manifesto as it was pretty unispiring and I have a feeling the tory’s will have a lot more ideas in their manifesto tomorrow. So I am now going for a Conservative majority of 50-60.

  48. @JOHN TT
    Go to the top of the class. Grammer = sentence construction ect, Grammar = a selective school where state education is available for the bright pupil. It used to be the way to the stars for poor kids and the equivalent of a public school education for lower middle class kids.

  49. I don’t think those 3 Labour MPs getting prosecuted for alleged expense fraud will do the party much help today by announcing they have secured legal aid to fund their defence.

  50. Pity. The obliterating idea might just have worked.
    Can’t see the Labour manifesto doing it.

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