D minus 25
Yesterday’s polls:
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (7th Apr) CON 38%(+1), LAB 30%(-3), LDEM 21%(nc)
YouGov/Sunday Times (9th-10th Apr) CON 40%(nc), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 18%(-2)
ComRes/Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror (9th-10th Apr) CON 39%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 16%(-4)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (9th-10th Apr) CON 38%(+1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 20%(nc)

There was also a OnePoll survey in the People, which showed figures of CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM 21% but for which I don’t have the information to know if we can give it any weight.

The topline voting intention are all broadly consistent – largely I expect because yesterday’s polls all came from the more established pollsters and those showing lower levels of support for Labour have tended to be the new entrants to the business. The Conservatives are at or just below 40% (ranging between 38% and 40%), the Labour party in the low thirties (30% to 32%). There is more variation in the Lib Dem score, with ranges between 21% and 16% – that latter score just doesn’t ring true to me and I’d be surprised if ComRes’s next poll doesn’t show them bouncing back.

The Conservative lead of something around the 8 points that these polls imply (the equivalent of a 5.5% swing) would not be enough for an overall majority in itself. Rather the Conservatives would have to rely upon outperforming the national swing in the marginal seats that actually decide the election. We had one marginals poll last night, from ICM, and it showed a swing of 6.3% to the Conservatives, so only slightly larger than the national one and still slightly short of the 6.9% they need for an overall majority.

This morning’s Independent on Sunday has has predictions of the pollsters themselves. All except Ben Page of MORI predict a small overall Conservative majority (including Peter Kellner, Andrew Cooper, Martin Boon and Andrew Hawkins) – the implication being that the pollsters expect either the Tory lead to grow during the campaign, or the Conservatives to outperform in the marginals by more than yesterday’s ICM poll suggested.

UPDATE: In the comment below Ben Page of MORI has clarified that what the Indy had as his projection was actually what he thinks would happen based on the polls now. His prediction for the final result is also a small Conservative majority.


529 Responses to “Sunday morning round up”

1 2 3 4 5 6 11
  1. @Rob Sheffield

    “Have a look and I suggest you contact the pollster direct if this does not satisfy you- asking what the pollsters individual reasons were for their gut-feeling IoS “predictions” is not for this site.”

    I disagree that the pollsters individual verdicts should not be discussed on this site. However, I do agree with you, Rob, that individual pollster’s verdicts and ‘gut-feelings’ on who will win the GE does not constitute anything more than guesswork (and personal opinion). It’s merely a bit of fun, and people shouldn’t read too much into what their predictions are.

  2. I think the reason some Tories object to me making thepoint is that they think I am saying this extra couple of % will be labour supporters.

    Lets be clear, I have no idea where if at all the extra % will come from or who it will benefit most.

  3. @Rob

    I HAVE read the thread and I know what the POSSIBLE reasons are, what I want to know is what the ACTUAL reasons are!!

    You know that Ben Page works for Mori and Anthony works for YouGov, right?

    Even if they don’t answer, I wanted to make the point that people are really interested to know, so it’d be a good piece of information to add in future.

    If you don’t think that’s a valid comment for this site then I suggest you ask Anthony to moderate me.

  4. matt

    “I disagree that the pollsters individual verdicts should not be discussed on this site”

    I mean them as people- I and others already discussed why the pollsters as-a-group- have all made “predictions” that are not totally reflected in their most recent polling data.

    My point was- if you are desperate to know why an individual person gave the response they did to the IoS……..then go and ask them but that is a massive cul-de-sac of uselessness for this thread to go down.

    Like I said it is analogous to someone coming on here and without prefixing a ‘IMHO’ venting forth what they feel the election result will be in 4 weeks.

    Its total gut feeling guesswork- the IoS might as well have asked all three front benches (sorry oldnat)…..

  5. “I think the reason some Tories object to me making thepoint is that they think I am saying this extra couple of % will be labour supporters.

    Lets be clear, I have no idea where if at all the extra % will come from or who it will benefit most.”

    I think this election may well be unpredictable. I think just about anything is possible – including the share of Cons and Labour (combined vote). Your predictions might be right, Eoin.

  6. @Yariv,

    Your views strike me as valid, just be a bit nicer…. I aint a fan of those capitals…

  7. Yaric

    “If you don’t think that’s a valid comment for this site then I suggest you ask Anthony to moderate me.”

    I doubt if it will be necessary as we all have much more interesting matters to move on to now: cheers :-)

  8. “but that is a massive cul-de-sac of uselessness for this thread to go down.”

    Agreed.

  9. @Matt,

    thanks for that….

    I do think turnout will climb…. if the sun shines anything like today, hell I might even vote….. errmmm , no actually I still wouldnt.

    I may miss the count due to sun stroke however. Celtic skin aint used to the heat….. that might affect the SNP vote…. hmm….

  10. @Roland,

    That made me laugh very loudly…. shhh i am in a library

  11. “I do think turnout will climb…. if the sun shines anything like today, hell I might even vote….. errmmm , no actually I still wouldnt.”

    LOL. Yeah, I reckon turnout will be pretty high, particularly if the weather is favourable. I think the Labour supporters on here will be praying for a nice, sunny day on May 6th.

  12. @EOIN
    Well I mean really.

  13. @Eoin

    I am not a Tory, and if you assume I am it’s likely to be due to your own partisanship more than anything else. (If you didn’t mean me, ignore this remark!)

    I agree that the range in pollsters combined scores is a valid point of concern, although if you’re wondering why it hasn’t been discussed much, I think that’s because it’s a product of the big differences of individual (especially Labour) party scores, which HAVE been discussed.

    I don’t, however, think that the point that the Con+Lab score is HIGH is backed up by the data, which was what I really wanted to say. I think now you’ve seen how it’s possible to see things in specific parts of the data which don’t stand up overall, so I would suggest extreme caution when pronouncing that trends/changes etc. are “undeniable”. I recommend pointing out trends you’ve noticed (such as the high Con+Lab or Lab improvement) and asking others whether they agree with the analysis/method or not.

  14. @Eoin et al

    Sorry about the capitals, I didn’t mean to shout but sometimes I need to emphasize particular words. I’ll try to stop doing that where it’s not necessary, but where I DO need to, is there a way to do italics or bold on here?

  15. @Yariv,

    Go chat to someone else- its too nice a day for the capitals.

    I wrongly presumed you were an objective observer on the election rather than a member of the electorate- a bit like myself…

    ‘my partisanship’ – perhaps you mean my ideology, in which case I take your point.

    But I am in too good a mood for your capitals so perhaps another time.

  16. I am also a bit puzzled at the Pollster’s comments. Clearly they are not commenting on their own polls or , worse, if they are then they must know something which they are not letting us on. For example, that would be a deliberate professional error.

    The only possible explanation maybe that they believe that the 6.9% swing is not needed. I find this hypothesis bewildering. The 6.9% is a mathematical fact. The only way it becomes less is in those seats where the swing required is less [ for example Gillingham, Crawley, York Outer etc. ] to achieve less than 6.9% as they are not needed and achieve more in seats like Luton South.

    I am not sure if Tooting would fall which needs a 6.2% swing.

  17. Eoin
    I see that a higher % of the big two leaves less room for shift from Others and LD. So if AR and Harris only comes up to 65 and has a greater gap between the two than the ‘established’ polls, then the question mark would be why are their ‘pollees’ are more volatile than those of ICM and YG and why have they fled to Others from Labour when those of YG do not.

    I suppose I trust YG/ICM more because we know darn well that Others will not score as heavily because it will dawn on some of them (depending where they live and of course I am not talking of the 3% nationalists) that they have to migrate to second choice on polling day. On the other hand I can’t understand why a YG pollee is more decided than a AR pollee *now*. The list of questions posed did not indicate a bias in those, except AR puts a preliminary Q, (but Harris does not and they use different data gathering methods, one phone and the other internet).

    So Ii have been flummoxed since I joined this site on this one aspect which remains unexplained.

  18. @Rob

    Sorry if I’m boring everyone, but I think the views of the heads of the polling companies are highly relevant to a site about polling methodology, since they are responsible for deciding what factors to include. Therefore if they are predicting something not shown in the polls they are responsible for, I think that’s about as important a question as you can get on here.

    If you’d rather go back to partisan arguments about whether Brown is a saint or a demon (like the ones that appear on pretty much all the other threads) then be my guest, we’ll just have to ignore each other.

  19. The closing of the gap between T & L since the budget etc. is very largely down to YouGov results. YouGov were over a long period showing, very consistently , a gap between T & L three points smaller than the mean gap shown by of other sites – a difference highly significant statistically. Now the mean gap shown by Yougov is pretty well identical to the mean gap shown by other polls (both about 8 to 9 points). The change is very striking.

  20. @Howard,

    I am glad that I am not the only one flummoxed. :)

    I did wonder with such a small panel did a bunch of BNP headcases plug together and say “lets join spring board uk”

    but then I woke up and had my cornflakes.

  21. @Ernie,

    That is a very good point. I know YG’s methodology brought them 1% closely to the rest but now they seem to sit pretty as pink right in the middle.

    As far as marital counselling went, old Angus barely moved an inch

  22. Ernie,
    Yes but why only YG? It does not make sense in sample terms?

  23. As usual the media puts a spin on things though and Clegg was more measured on tv. Think the point the Liberal Democrats are making is that the others parties aren’t being straight with the electorate and the public won’t like if they think they’ve been mislead. Of course you could argue no one is really going to spell things out and many people still want some sort of feel good factor.

  24. @Eoin

    I’ve apologised for the capitals, they’re not meant to offend. I think most of us on this have habits which wind others up (unintentionally, of course!)
    ;)

    “I wrongly presumed you were an objective observer on the election rather than a member of the electorate- a bit like myself…”

    Wrongly? I don’t think I’ve specified either today or previously whether I’m a member of the electorate or not, but if you want to know, please ask ;)

  25. Sorry to mention the pollsters’ opinions again, but the interesting thing I found is that most predicted an 8-10% Tory lead on May the 6th but still predicted, in most cases, reasonably Tory majorities of 20 or more seats (some as high as 50). Presumably they think the marginal swing will be a lot greater than the UNS.

    However, I’m not sure I agree with this.

  26. @Yariv,

    I wont ask if you do not mind.

    Tolerance comes naturally, so whatever or whoever you were it would not pass a fidge on me.

    Growing up in ireland you come to the realisation very quickly that we are all very different. It is a good thing.

  27. @Matt,

    Sean notably, an others, predict a Quattro boost of 2% at least in the marginals.

    Although these recent polls (5.5% Mori marginal and 6.3% margianl) did not seem to shwo that much of a boost, I am stil inclined to believe Sean.

    Where I disagree is that I think the lead will narrow to a much greater degree and even a 2% will still not be enough.

  28. As someone once famously said, a week is a long time in politics. I would add “and more so during election campaigns”.
    There are many short memories of a the 4-7% Conservative lead a short time ago. Now there is a 7-10% lead, there is an assumption it can only stay there.

    This election, more than many before it, is also going to have local factors that no amount of national opinion polling of 1200 or so people can factor in. Look around you where you live and you will know that the mathmatical model may point to one outcome, but the reality will be something quite different. For example I can’t see Sylvia Hermon losing her seat in North Down, now she is standing as an independent. Cornwall will not simply turn blue just because mathematically that’s what the national swing predicts.
    What would be more interesting right now is to know the ‘churn’ of people in their support, who’s changing their mind and where. A poll is just that: a snap shot in time. It tells us nothing more than that. The more sophisticated polls ask supplementary issue questions, but we still don’t know necessarily whether these issues affected someone’s choice of party one way or the other.
    I cite this example. The economy is mentioned as the most important issue in this election in many polls. GO is seen as the least capable future chancellor by a huge margin, yet the Conservatives have a reasonable lead. Something isn’t right there! And that’s because the electorate is fluid, ever changing and fickle, much more than previously and if i may say so…not necessarily rational either -they do not have to justify their decision to anyone.
    What is amusing is that none of the opinion pollsters gave any reasons why their prediction of the outcome didn’t match their actual polling figures. Maybe they just don’t know either and it’s all just a hunch, much like how many of the electorate will make their decision.

  29. “Growing up in ireland you come to the realisation very quickly that we are all very different. It is a good thing.”

    Very true, Eoin.

  30. Eoin Clarke

    As far as marital counselling went, old Angus barely moved an inch
    ———————————————————

    Actually, Angus also moved. They “re-weighted geographically”. The end result was they had more Labour votes in their weighted sample.

    YG’s “Road to Damascus” conversion was soft to say the least. Suddenly, when the election is due apparently, “certainly to vote” became very important. The argument is that this knowledge is irrelevant before the elections. However, if the headline figure moves 2% just because of this then this filter is important. I do have some sympathy with the crazy Tories nutters over at PB who were having a go at YG last month !

  31. @Surb,

    I realise that but it did not have much affect really did it?

    John Fletcher answered one of their (Angus Reid) polls at the end of the week but it has yet to be published. i wonder why?

  32. “Sean notably, an others, predict a Quattro boost of 2% at least in the marginals.

    Although these recent polls (5.5% Mori marginal and 6.3% margianl) did not seem to shwo that much of a boost, I am stil inclined to believe Sean.”Where I disagree is that I think the lead will narrow to a much greater degree and even a 2% will still not be enough.”

    I see.

    “Where I disagree is that I think the lead will narrow to a much greater degree and even a 2% will still not be enough.”

    Yeah, I think the Tories would need to lead by 10% (like in some of the YouGov polls) to be almost certain of getting a majority.

  33. @Surb,

    YG’s change amkes them more accurate…

    even in the glory days of 2% and 4% nobody really bougt it… we still nudged YG towards ICM’s 7% if you recall.

    This change is also only 1%….

  34. You see, I reckon a lead of 8.5% might be enough (still might not be IMO). It might well leave the Tories short.

    A 10% lead would be required to be almost certain of the Tories getting a majority.

    It would take some doing to get 10% IMO.

  35. Surbiton
    That LTV (not CTV note) only made a difference of 1% -somteimes. So I still don’t se the jump to 40 being explained.

    The others did not increase their Con % only Labour and not at COn expense.

  36. @Eoin

    “Whatever or whoever you were it would not pass a fidge on me.”

    Then why assume in the first place? ;)

    I certainly don’t mind your not asking, as I don’t think it’s relevant either. (Or at least, I’m trying (<-this word in capitals or otherwise emphasized!) to analyse things objectively, so it wouldn't matter, but no human can be 100% objective all the time!)

    I don't mind telling people my political status if they ask, but otherwise I'm keeping it to myself. But it's surprising how many wrong assumptions are made.

  37. @Howard

    “I suppose I trust YG/ICM more because we know darn well that Others will not score as heavily because it will dawn on some of them (depending where they live and of course I am not talking of the 3% nationalists) that they have to migrate to second choice on polling day.”

    I admire your confidence, but do we know how many some is? Since there seems to be a high level of preference for a hung parliament, some (again proportion unknown) will stick with their ideological principles.

  38. I see others polling 8-9% this campaign.

  39. @Eoin

    John Fletcher answered one of their (Angus Reid) polls at the end of the week but it has yet to be published. i wonder why?

    __________________________________

    Me too

  40. @Eoin

    “Whatever or whoever you were it would not pass a fidge on me.”

    Then why assume in the first place? ;)

    I certainly don’t mind your not asking, as I don’t think it’s relevant either. (Or at least, I’m trying (<-this word in capitals or otherwise emphasized!) to analyse things objectively, so it wouldn't matter, but no human can be 100% objective all the time!)

    I don't mind telling people my political status if they ask, but otherwise I'm keeping it to myself. But it's surprising how many wrong assumptions are made.

    (Sorry if this comes up twice – posted it a while ago and it's not showing up)

  41. Tory majority 10 seats.

  42. Surbiton
    “I am also a bit puzzled at the Pollster’s comments. Clearly they are not commenting on their own polls or, worse, if they are then they must know something which they are not letting us on. For example, that would be a deliberate professional error”.

    The Pollsters have a lot more info some of which is available to us such as long term trends, which party has momentum etc. They may also have doubts about their own assumptions but are not yet ready to modify them. There may also be reasons which would be unprofessional to disclose e.g. access to detailed private polling results of marginal seats

  43. @John F,

    Strange stuff John,

    was the inviatation you replied to, sent a few days early or was your reply prompt?

  44. Yes, I think the Lib Dem and ‘others’ vote may well be squeezed during this election, allowing for the Tories and Labour to get a higher percentage of the vote (combined).

  45. @Eoin

    “Although these recent polls (5.5% Mori marginal and 6.3% margianl) did not seem to shwo that much of a boost, I am stil inclined to believe Sean.”

    That’s an uncharacteristic departure from the data from you. Why are you so inclined?

  46. @Matt,

    It could explain why Lib D are not yet out of the starting blocks…. mayeb they never will be….

    Wales ahd their vote down 9%
    The marginals (MORI) had them down 7%
    Scotland’s poll of polls has them down

    I know Libs do tactical voting better than anyone. Their seat tally of 62 could withstand a dip in their vote , provided it was in meaningless constituencies…

  47. @GreenG,

    You want the truth?

    Because Sean’s a bloody well smart guy…. :)

    Anecdotally, i taught in the midlands and they had a huge appetite for change… The influx of Asian migrants there had them in a right tizzy. So I do see an exaggerated swing in that region. At least a 26 seat gain in the midlands alone, if they play their campaign right.

  48. @Eoin

    I was invited to join the Springboard pannel some months ago. This is the 3rd or 4th Survey I have filled out for them.

    This particluar survey was using the Angus Reid logo in the bottom right hand corner.

    I am also on the Yougov survey list and seem to get a survey monthly.

    I my vote wont count here in my consituency (Con maj 7000+) at least I can have some effect on the polls :D

  49. @SurfDoc

    “Now there is a 7-10% lead, there is an assumption it can only stay there.”
    —-

    There has been discussion of the accordion effect in previous threads (see the YouGov graphic for their tracker poll).

    The question is, is it a predictor of future performance or will something happen to change it? Crystal ball required to answer that. We know factors that might change it (debates, Q1 GDP, etc.) but will they and, if so, in which direction for each party?

  50. @Eoin

    Sorry did not reply to you in full.

    Filled out survey as soon as I got it. There is only a 24 hour window i which to complete them before they are closed.

1 2 3 4 5 6 11