D minus 25
Yesterday’s polls:
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (7th Apr) CON 38%(+1), LAB 30%(-3), LDEM 21%(nc)
YouGov/Sunday Times (9th-10th Apr) CON 40%(nc), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 18%(-2)
ComRes/Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror (9th-10th Apr) CON 39%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 16%(-4)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (9th-10th Apr) CON 38%(+1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 20%(nc)

There was also a OnePoll survey in the People, which showed figures of CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM 21% but for which I don’t have the information to know if we can give it any weight.

The topline voting intention are all broadly consistent – largely I expect because yesterday’s polls all came from the more established pollsters and those showing lower levels of support for Labour have tended to be the new entrants to the business. The Conservatives are at or just below 40% (ranging between 38% and 40%), the Labour party in the low thirties (30% to 32%). There is more variation in the Lib Dem score, with ranges between 21% and 16% – that latter score just doesn’t ring true to me and I’d be surprised if ComRes’s next poll doesn’t show them bouncing back.

The Conservative lead of something around the 8 points that these polls imply (the equivalent of a 5.5% swing) would not be enough for an overall majority in itself. Rather the Conservatives would have to rely upon outperforming the national swing in the marginal seats that actually decide the election. We had one marginals poll last night, from ICM, and it showed a swing of 6.3% to the Conservatives, so only slightly larger than the national one and still slightly short of the 6.9% they need for an overall majority.

This morning’s Independent on Sunday has has predictions of the pollsters themselves. All except Ben Page of MORI predict a small overall Conservative majority (including Peter Kellner, Andrew Cooper, Martin Boon and Andrew Hawkins) – the implication being that the pollsters expect either the Tory lead to grow during the campaign, or the Conservatives to outperform in the marginals by more than yesterday’s ICM poll suggested.

UPDATE: In the comment below Ben Page of MORI has clarified that what the Indy had as his projection was actually what he thinks would happen based on the polls now. His prediction for the final result is also a small Conservative majority.


529 Responses to “Sunday morning round up”

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  1. Google it Matt – take a look

  2. Hmmmm, I’ve just watched one! That was definitely the message and that line was in it, but no Dr who’s in sight?????

  3. @Steve D

    “Mr Tennant urges voters to stay “on the right road” to recovery.”

    Is he planning to get into his Tardis and follow the Quattro back to 1980?!

  4. ‘Sue

    Can’t seem to find it on you tube or the web. I guess someone will put it up soon.

  5. @Eoin Clark
    @Neil A
    If those three evils are applicable to the 3 major parties, how about ‘spread no evil’ for the others. Is there a ‘smiley’ with its legs crossed? Which major party would get which evil ‘smiley’.

  6. Lets hope the Time Lord does not enter the current political fray. There would just be too many quips to be made. Roland will have a field day.

    The economy can be a strong point for Labour if they play it right – and are aiming it at the appropriate target audience. Obviously not company Chief Execs!

  7. Google The Road Ahead, it was sent to me by the Labour Party, so if they’ve changed it that would no doubt attract bad attention!

  8. John B Dick

    It’s a wider argument than that for many of those of us who want to see a radical constitutional change for Scotland.

    Of course, the UK could redefine itself to satisfy the aspirations of its constituent parts – but history suggests that they will always propose changes that are too little and too late. A Velvet Divorce scenario remains a likely outcome.

    Much better to look at the Reserved Powers and decide which of them are best retained outwith Scotland.

    According to polling, most Scots would put Defence and Foreign Affairs amongst these. But if we are looking at a constitution for a modern inter-dependent world, then pooling sovereignty over these issues – as with macro-economics – into a much wider Union than the current 18th/19th century construct seems more sensible.

    UK – too big for the wee things : too wee for the big things.

  9. @Eoin Clarke
    Sorry about my last. The ‘e’ got dropped off your name. Just can’t get the staff nowadays!

  10. Guy F

    “Lets hope the Time Lord does not enter the current political fray.”

    Too late! With a Scots co-star and a Scots writer, we already have Scots Independence in the script!

  11. YouGov is 31/37/20

  12. @neil a

    call it growing up in south armagh

  13. There is a Scottish voiceover at the end, suppose that could be Tennant, but I never clicked, just thought it was a nod to Old Nat et al???

  14. “YouGov is 31/37/20”

    Where do you get that from? I’m on their site right now and can’t see anything for today at all.

  15. @Leslie

    Its on the right hand side under election tweets

  16. It will cheer up the Hug Cooperative Society on here if that’s right!

  17. IMHO Labours entire strategy is built on fear.

    Vote or us or those nasty Tories will get in an ruin the recovery from the internationally created crisis and as a consequence ruin your lives.

    The problem is that the entire strategy depends on the people still believing that we are in the depths of a horrible recession and only the genius of GB can pull us out.

    However the people are not stupid. They can read the runes that tell them that internationally the crisis has bottomed out and we are coming out of it, They do not care a whit if GB help or hindered it.

    They also know that a tank of petrol is super expensive. They can work out that it is tax and the low value of the pound against the dollar is the cause.

    Lower the debt and it increases the value of the pound and so they save money on petrol.

    This is what motorwayman in the marginals will be thinking.

  18. @ Sue,

    Thanks.

  19. @john f

    fear works

  20. A 6 point lead would be great for Labour if correct.

  21. It also says 32% believe Cameron ‘won’ the first week, yet Tories down 3%. Still within MOE I know, but If Cameron really did ‘win’ the first week, nothing much has changed as a result.

  22. Well blimey, it IS Sean Pertwee – I didn’t even know Jon Pertwee had a son and I certainly didn’t get any Dr Who link from it!! Just a Scottish voiceover at the end.
    (The word Pertwee has now lost all meaning to me :) )

  23. Missing something – the only tweet I can see on Yougov’s site is from Saturday (40/30/20)

  24. still within the margin of error. no change…

  25. John Fletcher – I’m terrified.

  26. i wold find a yg 31/ 37 very hard to believe…. a combined score of 68

    that is 4 beneath yg recent combined

  27. Sean Pertwee is a minor-league English actor who had a few parts in the 1990s and early 2000s. I can’t remember the last thing I saw him in.

  28. Hug Co-Operative Society!!! LMAO
    Richard O – Don’t be so churlish ;)

  29. @Sue Marsh,

    I have never been more scared in my entire life

  30. I see the 37-31-20 figures in the graph but it states 7-8 April but could just be a mistake. Under tweets I only see the Saturday poll.

  31. Sue,

    haha, I was doing the cop out way to dismiss unfavourable polls!

    :-)

  32. In all seriousness, Eoin, if you’re so dead against a Tory government, why don’t you go out and vote SDLP? Surely that’s as good as a vote for Labour and will help in some tiny way towards preventing the return to the Thatcherite dark ages that the pollsters are predicting?

  33. @eoin

    fear works

    ________________________________________

    At times yes. It is a question of catching the mood of the nation at the time.

    Over the awful Winter fear reflected the gloomy mood of the country.

    Spring is here. even Oldnat in his northern reaches is out in the garden. Hope and renewal are in the air.

    Who is most likely to catch the mood of the moment GB or DC?

  34. John Fletcher this site is for election predictions and comments, not political speeches.

  35. If true, I think it would be terrific news for Labour. Can anyone confirm it?

  36. Matt – it would not be ‘great for Labour’ although some might try to paint it as such, look at the Labour vote, they are going nowhere!

    It is though disapointing for the Conservatives but will be just looked on as a slight hitch. The LibDems though will, I would imagine now be realising that they can go after Labour big time and slice off their voter support ‘salami style’ (thanks ‘Yes Prime Minister’).

    Remember that all polls should be looked at over a period of days, not hours and not weeks, but days so as to give a rounded figure, say 3-4 days I use, that way most things have not changed significantly between the first day of polling and the last, and of course you are less likely to get massive jumps.

    Lord Mandelson will be wondering how Labour can get the votes now, and ‘IMHO’ they will not. Labour may have also miscalculated as well with their first PPB. But anything Labour do now does not surprise me, it baffles me but does not surprise me.

  37. He is also an actor in his own right, not just the son of the ‘best’ Dr Who :)

    These Cancer mailings seem to be causing a stir, GO and DC have waded in and DC called Labour tactics ‘sick’.

    Reminds me a bit of the NHS ads debacle from a previous election.

  38. Yes 6% just now sky news

  39. YouGov 31/37/20/12 confirmed by Sky News

  40. I wonder if that would be a 5% lead in “old money” (before the new weighting). I guess AW will tell us later.

  41. @neil a,

    the super dooper lolly pops…

    or do you mean the stoop down low party?

    ;)

    I would prefer David Davis to Tony Blair. I’ll tell you that for free.

  42. Ah, it is great news for Labour then – even if you consider the MOE. To me it suggests the lead is probably around 7/8% rather than 8.5/9%.

  43. What cancer mailings?

  44. Tweetminster is showing these figures now, so seems to be a fact now. Of course doesn’t mean there been a great change. One You Gov showede a 5 pt lead last week before moving upwards again.

  45. @Sue,

    Check BBC online, its now the top read story.

    Labour sent party political anti-Tory mailing to 250,000 Cancer sufferers. A bit close to the mark!!!

    rich

  46. Still can’t figure out where you guys (and Sky News) got the Yougov numbers from. Their website hasn’t been upodated since 11am this morning and the most recent tweet is dated 9 April!

  47. Was it to cancer sufferers? Surely it was just women voters wasn’t it? Where would they get the confidential patient data to target cancer patients?

  48. @ sue m
    @Barnaby

    If you fell I was making a political speech I am sorry.

    I did not make any comment on the rights or wrongs of either party which is what I believe I would have to do to make such a speech.

    I was making a honest personal assessment of the activities so, far which I believe is legitimate on this site.

    Can anyone deny that the major plank of the Labour electioneering so far has been based on fear of a Tory victory.

  49. Also how did they get the names and addresses as well as finding out who was suffering from Cancer?

    Seems like a criminal investigation could result and at the very least Labour have to explain about data protection!

  50. @neil a,

    A very fair post- of course no 21st century party would do what Richard has suggested

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