D minus 25
Yesterday’s polls:
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (7th Apr) CON 38%(+1), LAB 30%(-3), LDEM 21%(nc)
YouGov/Sunday Times (9th-10th Apr) CON 40%(nc), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 18%(-2)
ComRes/Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror (9th-10th Apr) CON 39%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 16%(-4)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (9th-10th Apr) CON 38%(+1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 20%(nc)

There was also a OnePoll survey in the People, which showed figures of CON 37%, LAB 31%, LDEM 21% but for which I don’t have the information to know if we can give it any weight.

The topline voting intention are all broadly consistent – largely I expect because yesterday’s polls all came from the more established pollsters and those showing lower levels of support for Labour have tended to be the new entrants to the business. The Conservatives are at or just below 40% (ranging between 38% and 40%), the Labour party in the low thirties (30% to 32%). There is more variation in the Lib Dem score, with ranges between 21% and 16% – that latter score just doesn’t ring true to me and I’d be surprised if ComRes’s next poll doesn’t show them bouncing back.

The Conservative lead of something around the 8 points that these polls imply (the equivalent of a 5.5% swing) would not be enough for an overall majority in itself. Rather the Conservatives would have to rely upon outperforming the national swing in the marginal seats that actually decide the election. We had one marginals poll last night, from ICM, and it showed a swing of 6.3% to the Conservatives, so only slightly larger than the national one and still slightly short of the 6.9% they need for an overall majority.

This morning’s Independent on Sunday has has predictions of the pollsters themselves. All except Ben Page of MORI predict a small overall Conservative majority (including Peter Kellner, Andrew Cooper, Martin Boon and Andrew Hawkins) – the implication being that the pollsters expect either the Tory lead to grow during the campaign, or the Conservatives to outperform in the marginals by more than yesterday’s ICM poll suggested.

UPDATE: In the comment below Ben Page of MORI has clarified that what the Indy had as his projection was actually what he thinks would happen based on the polls now. His prediction for the final result is also a small Conservative majority.


529 Responses to “Sunday morning round up”

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  1. Just to clarify Antony – I still think personally that its pretty hard to call the general election other than the Tories being the largest party with much certainty – GIVEN THE DEBATES WILD CARD ETC the Indy took my quote that the current figures suggested them as being 25 seats short and turned it into my prediction. It isnt. I also think the Tories will indeed get a smallish majority. Sorry to be conformist and all that.

  2. So, there we have it – all bar one of the professional polling companies thinks the Tories will get an overall majority.

    I’m sure they have no idea what they’re talking about :-)

  3. From the Independent on Sunday/ComRes

    Of the possible outcomes of the election, 29 per cent said they would prefer to see the Tories form a government with an overall majority, while 26 per cent favoured a Labour-Lib Dem coalition in a hung parliament. Some 25 per cent said they wanted Labour to win with an outright majority, while 20 per cent favoured a Tory- Lib Dem alliance

  4. Curtice et al currently forcasting a majority of 10 on politicshome- they include a marginals premium in their model.

    On the basis of all Tuesdays to yesterdays polls we have 38.4/ 30.3/ 19.5/ 11.8

    My upper Conservative seat tally (large MS) = 339 (to 225/ 55/ 13

    = Conservative majority of 28

    My lower Conservative seat tally (small MS) = 313 (to 250/ 56/ 13)

    = Conservatives short by 13

    Middle tally = 326 (to 237/56/13)

    = Conservative majority of 2

    Anyone know what is out tonight??

  5. Jaime,

    8% is not an overall majoirty

    The marginal poll boost gave them 0.8% extra…

    8, 7 ,8, 7, is 7.5% is a 5.25% swing is a 6.05% marginal swing is 0.85% off a majority.

    the Quattro fire have to fire some more before a majority of 1 is even likely.

    In addition with by elections throughout parliament terms is would be the most unenviable of terms for any PM to govern.

    Much worse than Major’s 1992.

    Besides the trends now make it less and less likely.

  6. Cheers Ben – will amend above

    Rob – just to clarify, it isn’t actually Curtice doing the calculations on PoliticsHome, part of the projection is just based on something Curtice came up with. The PoliticsHome projection is being done by Rob Ford of Manchester Uni and his collegues.

  7. I should have added in the above post that while 51% would like Labour to remain in government , 49% want the Tories to form it. Half and half. Couldn’t be closer. There is a trend here towards Labour and Lib Dem’s “ganging up “

  8. Jaime- your forgot the word “small” before “majority” when referring to the pollsters predictions…..

    Conservatives need 15 or more to not end up beholden to their couple of closet UKIPers (steve hiltons worst nightmare apparently- would rather be minority then that john major scenario and “weak weak weak” attacks).

    So be careful what you wish for :-)

  9. The ICM marginal showed an 8% boost
    The Mori marginal had a 5.5% swing

    Neither shows the Tories getting a majority.

    Projection tools are less authoritative surely than marginal polls.

  10. *read ICM 0.8%

  11. Rob

    how do you know what I wish for?

    I think the thrust of my email above is fairly obvious – that certain people on this website will immediately seek to trash the professional pollsters’ belief that the Tories are going to win,

    And I was right.

  12. Unless there is a significant move (say 2%+) in favour of Labour, a Lab/Lib Government is mathematically a non-starter.

    As far as I can see, there isn’t really a trend; just fluctuations around 39-31-19.

  13. AW- cheers interesting to know that about politicshome thanks.

    Incidentally people- there is also a daily election blog from the Notts politics and international relations department (election2010 blogspot) that makes some quite interesting points.

    Selected excerpts from a posting on Thursday entitled “what the polls are’t telling us”

    …”We can expect a large number of election polls to be published in the next four weeks. Not all polling agencies arrive at their numbers in exactly the same way, and they need to be read with care. And in spite of the useful information that election polls offer, they are lacking in two important respects, both of which relate to the difference between ‘hard’ choices and ‘soft’ ones.

    In a survey conducted by the British Election Study team in February 2010 , and which contains more detailed information than most election polls, we find that of those who unequivocally state that they will vote Conservative at the next general election, 4.5% actually hesitates between Conservative and Labour, and 7.6% hesitates between Conservative and Liberal Democrats. Of those who claim that they will support Labour 2.1% might still change to Conservative, and 13.8% to the Liberal Democrats. Of the projected Lib Dem support 8.9% might still go Conservative and 26.9% Labour. In all these situations, it will not take much for these voters to still change their vote intention because they are actually quite strongly attracted to two different parties at the same time.

    When looking at the “don’t know’s”, we find that 12.7% is actually strongly attracted to the Conservatives, 27% to Labour, and 22.4% to the Liberal Democrats. When prodding the “don’t know’s” to indicate which party they lean to, we find that those leaning to Labour have a much stronger preference for that party than leaning Conservatives have for theirs. In other words, if, as is usually the case during election campaigns, the number of yet undecided voters declines as polling day draws nearer, Labour in particular and the Liberal Democrats to a smaller extent stand to gain more from this than the Conservatives.

    If we want to gauge the possible dynamics in party support over this election campaign, we have to take into account the differences in the certainty with which respondents state their intended choices. In the current situation, doing so reveals an even closer race than most of the polls suggest. “

  14. Virtually all the movement in terms of seats is likely to be in England. We really need a poll of England.

  15. There is a trend here towards Labour and Lib Dem’s “ganging up “

    This is beyond doubt. Fixed term parliaments, electoral reform, house of Lords referendum are being openly talked about. Jack Straw on Five Live talking about Labour’s options in the event of a hung parliament, Adonis calling for LibDems to vote tactically to stop the Tories.

    the’re gunning for a lib lab coalition. 5 more years of Gordon, anyone?

  16. jaime- sorry mate *wrong* because the only opinion I was “trashing” was not that of the pollsters…..

    Their professional view is based on probability and data analysis and quite rightly so.

    Indeed you can also see from my own prediction (based on an anlysis of the last weeks polls and factoring in TV and a marginals swing in varying amounts) further up that my range is between 13 short to a *28* seat majority (i.e. not small as is the pollsters probability based prediction).

    I was merely pointing out that your OPINION is simply based on what you want to happen not on any analysis of the data and if the pollsters had said something different (like they forecast a HP) you would not have posted :-)

  17. I’ll predicate this post by saying that I am a non-voter and so this is genuinely how I objectively view the polling evidence.

    This weeks polls, taken as a whole, must surely be seen as good news for the Conservatives. They are attempting to achieve the second biggest swing for sixty years and based on the ICM marginals poll, together with a national lead of around 8% or 9%, they are within spitting distance of pulling it off.

    Clearly they still have some work to do and an interesting moment this week was when Lord Adonis specifically encouraged the Liberal Democrat vote to prevent a Conservative majority. If this is to be a new strategy explicitly used by campaigners then it will make Cameron’s job even harder.

    Having said that there was some evidence this week from the ‘Finkelstein election model’ in The Times which suggested the Lib Dem vote is actually more likely to turn Conservative than Labour. Together with the Independent on Sunday piece in which eight pollsters have suggested Cameron will win a majority there does seem to be a strand of opinion which holds that the Tories can overcome both tactical voting and electoral bias.

    The elephant in the room seems to be how the British public will react to the prospect of a hung parliament when it comes to the final week or so. We have heard a few noises from Nick Clegg today concerning the damage a tight election result could bring to social cohesion. It will be interesting to see if Cameron starts to encourage a clear result either way and whether the electorate will be receptive to this message.

    One final thought, I was surprised to see Andrew Hawkins of ComRes suggesting that polling methodology might still overstate Labour. I would have thought pollsters would be more confident that over estimation problems had been ironed out for this election.

  18. @ AW
    “All except Ben Page of MORI predict a small overall Conservative majority (including Peter Kellner, Andrew Cooper, Martin Boon and Andrew Hawkins) – the implication being that the pollsters expect either the Tory lead to grow during the campaign, or the Conservatives to outperform in the marginals by more than yesterday’s ICM poll suggested.

    @ BEN PAGE
    ” I also think the Tories will indeed get a smallish majority.”

    @ Eoin Clarke
    “.. the trends now make it less and less likely.”

    Mmmmmm !

    ______________

    Did I hear the news reports correctly-Nick Clegg has said , if either main party get a narrow majority-there will be civil unrest. ? !

  19. @Edward

    Over the last week the narrative has basically been about NI and almost nothing else and- despite the initial very good start on this by the Conservatives- by yesterday the two big parties had fought themselves to a score-draw on it.

    That is reflected in the batch of polls in the latter period of the first week (in contrast to first few days) that mean- since Tuesday- the average has *hardly changed* i.e. we are talking movements over the first week of less than 0.5%. This week in polling terms has not been especially good for anyone….

    There are several elephants in the room (immigration, the war in Afghanistan, prospects of a VAT rise, Europe and a referendum) but with respect I don’t think a hung parliament is one of them. Partly because it has been discussed loudly to death over the last 2 months so anyone remotely interested in politics will know all about it; and partly because the vast majority of voters could not give a monkeys- they don’t engage with its nuances nor it potential ramifications. Which BTW are not all bad at all……

    Danny Finkelstein is an ex LD/SDP member who jumped shipped rightwards and would like to tell us that most of his ex party voters (if not members) are closet Tories as well…..just like he was. But I think he is stretching his argument somewhat and other data (for example the 2010 study mentioned above, a recent article from Curtice and past election voting trends) tell us that- whilst the LD preference for Labour over conservative has declined- it is *still* a preference i.e. any LD switchers will be greater in number for labour than conservative.

  20. Cleggs latest outburst in remarkable.

    Blood on the streets if either party govern with a small majority.

    Since Labour have little chance of getting an outright majority, the only conclusion one can draw is that he is recommending that people should vote Conservative to give them a clear mandate to govern.

  21. @ JOHN FLETCHER

    This is the only quote I can find :-

    ““Britain could be hit by “serious social strife” if Labour or the Tories win the election and introduce severe spending cuts, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg says.”

    It is , as you say, remarkable.

    He appears to have abandoned “savage cuts” in favour of the pain free deficit reduction plan.

    That takes him in Gordon’s direction.

  22. @Colin

    Sitting in Gordons lap with GB’s hand up is ar*e more like.

    What people will do for a sniff of power eh!

    And they like to portray themselves as the party of principles.

  23. Aren’t some of these companies involved in private polling for the parties? Looks like some insider information is leaking out when so many pollsters predict the same result.

  24. ric
    There is a trend here towards Labour and Lib Dem’s “ganging up “

    the’re gunning for a lib lab coalition. 5 more years of Gordon, anyone?……..
    ————————————————————-

    Ric, the difference between you and me is that I want them to gang up. I will be doing my best by voting LD here when I am not a LD supporter. Hope all others like me do the same in Con/LD marginals.

    Even the bookies can’t make the Tories favourite in Richmond Park – statistically it should be a shoo in – but it ain’t. However, there aren’t many Labour voters to squeeze here anymore.

  25. Colin

    your last post deserves a response for a change:

    Clegg is merely doing (wrongly IMHO) what BOTH Brown and Cameron have done: namely drop the spending cuts hot potato.

    NO party now has a policy of spending cuts……until AFTER the election (though the Conservatives have- in conjunction with not cutting spending (only amorphous “waste”)- a long list of tax cuts which will do wonders for the deficit !!

    So Cleggs comments take him in the direction of BOTH Brown and Cameron- into the realms of politically savvy but economically dishonest proclamations…..

  26. Can we all stop this numpty argument that the Tories need 326 to get a majority. You’ve all been watching too much SkyNews!

    Assuming The Speaker is re-elected there will be 649 seats up for grabs. A Tory win of 325 is a majority of one.

    Due to the adolescent posturing of SF their 4 – 5 seats don’t count. Include the Ulster-Unionists – which Shadsy [Ladbrokes] has said will be counted as Tories (as far as bets go) – then the Conservative Party will probably win with 320 English seats.

    It’s not rocket science. Shame the population appears to have lost it’s ability to think propositions through; thanks Tony…. :roll:

  27. @Eoin – “The marginal poll boost gave them 0.8% extra…”
    Being pedantic, the marginals boost will be more than this I expect, as the higher swing in the marginals is also included in the national swing – they are not independent variables. To accurately measure the marginal effect we would need to measure the national swing excluding the marginals, but the point still stands that the current swing doesn’t appear to be enough.

    I posted yesterday that I was interested in what appears to be a closing of the gap between the swings nationally and in the marginals. It was about 2% but is now less than half that according to this poll. Whether this is significant or just normal variation we don’t know, but the Tories have been relying on the marginals up to now.

    Another interesting point that hasn’t really been discussed much – YouGov have completely turned the tables and are now consistently giving the highest score to the Tories. Thta’s a bit of a turnaround.

  28. If there is a hung parliament, then all the polls indicate the Tories will be the largest party, short by a few.

    Their numbers in the polls have been remarkble stable and thier retention rate from the last election is a something like 90% so, barring a catastropy from them I think it is resonable to expect their % of the vote to hold up.

    In that event there is absolutely no advantage in them going in to a coalition with the Lib/Dems. They simply have to try to govern as a minority goverenment and as soon as the Lib/Dems refuse to support them by voting against them in a vote of confidence, they just go back to the country asking for a clear mandate, which they will probably get.

    The only chance Clegg stands of being part of a government is to form a coalition with Labour, force through PR

  29. The FT has an interesting “Sunday miscellaneous” that highlights data from across different polls this last week:

    National Insurance: 46 per cent back Tory plans to reverse National Insurance rise. But, if a tax has to go up, 55 per cent prefer to raise National Insurance rather than VAT (YouGov/Sunday Times)

    Marriage tax break: 19 per cent are more likely to vote Tory because of marriage tax break (YouGov/Sunday Times). But 59 per cent think the tax break should go to unmarried couples too (ICM Sun/Telegraph)

    Hung parliament: 46 per cent of voters want to see the Lib Dems either support a Tory or Labour minority government (ComRes/Independent on Sunday)

    Favourite chancellor: two surveys show Alistair Darling overtaking Vince Cable in popularity stakes while George Osborne takes bronze. (28/25/17 breakdown in ICM/Sunday Telegraph and a 23/21/19 breakdown in ComRes/Independent on Sunday)

    High expectations: 44 per cent believe Cameron will perform best in TV debates (ICM/Sunday Telegraph)

  30. @John Fletcher
    Not so.

    If you read the full comments you will see that he was suggesting that large scale public sector cuts could lead to social unrest. He highlighted the case of the tories attempting to impose these measures with only a small overall majority leading to social unrest in places (such as his own constituency in Sheffield), where the tories have no elected representatives.

    The argument was against Tory plans and in favour of a hung parliament.

  31. Clegg is really annoying me now! What’s this talk of greek style riots if the Tories get in?

    Very emotive language, and pretty nonsensical.

    Labour also now seem to be firmly setting their sites on befriending the Lib Dems as the best way to form a Govt. I havn’t heard a single criticism of Lib Dem policy from a Labour politician for several days.

    The irony is, that given how weak a small majority Govt or hung parliament coalition is going to be, it could be that these will be longer term bad results for either Conservatives or Labour respectively?

  32. I’m with Ben Page.

    Hung/small CON is a very narrow band of UNS with local against the trend outcomes.

    If an election results is a majority of 100, and the nearest pollster had predicted 120, they would rightly claim success, but if the majority was 10 and they had predicted 10 the other way, it wouldbe seen as failure.

    As Ben says, there are events, and there are unrelated events which can have an effect. An air crash can postpone a scoop for two days.

    We havn’t had a sex scandal yet. It’s usually the Cons that provide that, but nowadays NewLabour has adopted Tory values and lifestyle so they might oblige this time. The Sun would prefer that, though they will take what they get.

    I’ll be disappointed if we don’t get one. It’s one of our great Westminster traditions.

  33. Fluffy …….etc
    I disregard posts that use the word ‘numpty’. There is something intensely unpleasant in the attitude of people who use that expression.

  34. ROB

    I am indeed honoured at your gracious response.

    I think you are wrong-& so was I.

    I have read as many reports as possible now.

    What he said was this :
    “”Imagine the Conservatives go home and get an absolute majority, on 25% of the eligible vote,” he said. “They then turn around in the next week or two and say we’re going to chuck up VAT to 20%, we’re going to start cutting teachers, cutting police and the wage bill in the public sector.

    “I think if you’re not careful in that situation… you’d get Greek style unrest.

    “And so, my warning to people who think the old politics still works, is be careful what you wish for.”

    Referring to the prospect of a hung parliament, Mr Clegg told the newspaper: “Do I think politicians working together can be a good thing? Of course it can.”

    So there we have it.:
    ( forget the emotive non-sequiturs about VAT & police etc)

    If a Conservative administration with a slim majority starts a programme of public sector spending cuts, the public will be on the streets.

    If the LibDems are involved in a new administration-tackling the deficit-there will be no such problems.

    ie Complete b****y nonsense , the purpose of which is to try and get people to vote for a hung parliament -his key phrase ” careful what you wish for”

  35. IMHO Clegg is more likely to support DC rather than GB.
    Unless the polls change much the Tories will at worst be the largest party and will poll significantly more votes than LAB. Clegg has talked about supporting the party with the biggest mandate from voters in the event of a hung parliament. If say election result is C38 and L30 and no overall majority then I believe he will support DC.

    I also believe from a personal point of view he can’t do business with GB because of Brown’s “style” whereas he could with DC.

  36. Quite interesting that the pollsters have been drawn on what they think the result will be, rather than what their polls say the result will be. Andy Morris from AR, for example, either thinks that AR’s polls are over-stating the Conservative lead by 1-3% (11% AR poll versus 8-10% final lead), or that Labour will close the gap between now and polling day. He must also think there will be strong marginals premium to get to 40 seats from this.

    Populus, Harris and ICM seem to be in line with their current polls, plus a modest marginals premium.

    The rest either believe their polls understate the lead, that the marginals premium will be high, or that the gap will widen.

    Anthony, the rounding on the UKPR average looks dubious. I get the following on the same base numbers – 38.46 (38) 30.33 (30) 19.58 (20). Of course I’m on a Mac using Numbers, so it could be wrong :-)

  37. John B Dick

    I think the performance of the pollsters (and their post-election credibility) will be judged by their actual eve of poll figures and projections- not an interesting (as a geek) exercise 4 weeks out….

    Though of course the champagne corks are-a-popping over with the krazy mob on PB- I suspect quite a lot of very silly punts will have been laid this morning……..:-)

  38. @RAF

    Perhaps that is what he is trying to say but he said it very badly.

    Cuts are inevitable whoever forms the Government and will of course be unpopular in places like Sheffield where there are so many Govermnet Employees.

    Is he saying that if you are laid off by a Lib/Lab coalition you will meekly toddle off to the Job centre whilst if you are laid off by the Tories you will take to the barricades.

  39. Fluffy Thoughts (E.D.P.)

    “Include the Ulster-Unionists …. then the Conservative Party will probably win with 320 English seats.”

    So you reckon Mundell is gone?

  40. The pollsters opinions are respected but I did notice that none actually gave underlying reasons for deviating from the projections their own polls imply to a 10 -20 seat overall majority for Con.

    So really it ended up sounding like ‘trust me I’m a pollster’.

    A bit like ‘I’m Stuart Rose I sell shirts, trust me on the nations debt repayment policies’.

    I trust no one on any subject unless they produce supporting evidence. The supporting evidence is not available on this issue because the future has not happened yet.

  41. @Colin

    Agree that NC’s language was unduly inflammatory. However, highlighting Sheffield was politically astute. What I take from Clegg’s comments is that the Tories will inflict the most pain in areas of the country where they have little or no electoral representation, and that this could be socially divisive.

  42. Colin

    OK- thanks for more research. I go along with most of what you say in that post- especially the wanting to have it both ways element.

    Though I would add one extra interpretation:

    which is that he is saying Cameron needs to be honest about the scale of cuts and to “rule out” (i.e. uses those words) a post election VAT rise; or say it is a possibility given they don’t like NI.

    Osborne will only use that old cliché of “no plans to raise VAT” which to the vast majority of voters out there means he has ruled it out. As geeks and politicos- by using that language- we KNOW he has NOT…..

  43. In regards of cuts.

    Is it fair to say that whoever gets in, we might see the biggest wave of strikes since the late 70s/80s?

    rich

  44. In fairness to the pollsters, one has written in to say he was misquoted. It could be that the writer of the article forgot to include their underlying supporting evidence because he thought that was too boring for readers.

    Quality newspapers – pah!

  45. @Howard

    “The pollsters opinions are respected but I did notice that none actually gave underlying reasons for deviating from the projections their own polls imply to a 10 -20 seat overall majority for Con.”

    Indeed I felt like making that point as well !

    Very strange…..but I guess they are beginning to think about their post election credibility given that in the last ‘close election’ of 1992 so many of them ended up with large amounts of professional and technical egg on their faces !!

    It will be interesting to see whether they stick to the projections that their eve-of-poll numbers suggest- and make eve-of-poll predictions that match their own survey data…

    Because if they don’t that really will be unprofessional.

    It will be like saying “Hi I am Stuart Rose- here are the shirts we produce but have a look at the shirts over at John Lewis” :-)

  46. @John Fletcher

    @RAF
    “Perhaps that is what he is trying to say but he said it very badly. ”

    It’s exactly what he said.

    “Cuts are inevitable whoever forms the Government and will of course be unpopular in places like Sheffield where there are so many Govermnet Employees. Is he saying that if you are laid off by a Lib/Lab coalition you will meekly toddle off to the Job centre whilst if you are laid off by the Tories you will take to the streets”

    I entirely agree that cuts are inevitable. But NC appears to be arguing that given that given the pain these cuts will cause, following through will “massive cuts” when you would only have secured 25% of the electorate’s votes (and not by reaching some sort of consensus with other parties), would lack legitimacy and could lead to social problems.

    He clearly went too far though.

  47. John B Dick

    So you reckon Mundell is gone?

    It’s been years since I have been to The Province so I don’t know (nor take in-depth interest in it’s politics). I can only reflect upon the postings of the likes of The Oncoming Storm and Yokel: there would appear to be some traction for the UU in certain seats. [P.S., who is Mundell?]

    Much has been said – not least by oldnat – that the Scottish sub-samples skew what is happening in England (and Wales). This appears to be reflected in the IoS pollsters findings.

    What is clear is – in the key battleground: England – the Conservative Party does not need to out-perform Blair ’97, and this is before we discuss the failings (or otherwise) of UNS. I’m inclined towards Any Cooke’s analysis; given an eight-point lead I would expect a Tory majority.

    [Haven’t used the word numpty so I hope that is OK. D’oh!]

  48. What a shame all 8 of these pollsters are wrong. Eoin and Surbiton bravely continue to prove to the bitter end that Labour will win, after all what do these 8 muppets know about opinion polls and trends.

  49. @ Rob

    I was merely pointing out that your OPINION is simply based on what you want to happen not on any analysis of the data and if the pollsters had said something different (like they forecast a HP) you would not have posted

    _____________________

    Speak for yourself mate.

    What opinion did I express?
    What do I want to happen?
    Yesterday I predicted an HP – and still do.

  50. @RAF

    Yes he did go to far, and perhaps what he need to realise is what goes down well in Sheffiled might not go down well in other parts of the country and he is playing to a National (ok OLDNAT multi national) audience.

    I do not think it was politically astute of him, unless he is desperately frustrated by the lack of coverage the LibDems are getting and was looking for a headline to get himself onto the front pages at any cost.

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