There are two new polls this morning. Harris in the Metro have topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 20%(+1). Others are on 15%. The fieldwork was conducted between the 31st March and 6th April, the day the election was called, so compared to the YouGov, Populus and Angus Reid polls this is rather out of date already.
The University of East Anglia’s student union also seems to have commissioned the first constituency poll of the general election campaign, specifically of Norwich South – with some rather strange results. The poll from MORI has topline figures (with changes from the notional 2005 result) of LAB 39%(+2), CON 20%(-2), LDEM 19%(-11), Green 19%(+12).
Clearly it shows Charles Clarke holding on very easily indeed, with the Liberal Democrats collapsing into third place as their support shifts to the Greens, who were in fourth place in 2005 with 7%. The figures do seem somewhat dubious though. Some MPs do buck the national trend to some extent, but with polls showing national swings ranging between 3.5% and 7% from Labour to the Conservatives, any English seat displaying a 2% swing from Conservative to Labour would be a very unusual creature indeed. Charles Clarke may be a high profile figure, but he doesn’t seem an obvious candidate to buck Labour’s trend quite so dramatically.
In terms of the voting intention question, it appears to have been prompted with the names and parties of the Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Green and UKIP candidates. Including minor parties in the prompt does run the risk of overestimating their support, but you can see by the contrast between Green support and UKIP support (just 2%) that the comparatively high level of support for the Greens in this poll is not all down to prompting.
@ BILL ROY
“I find it abhorant that the threat of violence is being hinted at if one side does not get what they want. I do not call that democracy!”
I heartily agree Bill.
It is sickening.
It’s bad enough that the poor benighted people of NI have to suffer from this stuff for ever & a day-but it is repellant that these threats, and intimations of violence are voiced on this website.
@LastFandango
—-
British is regularly used as the collective demonym for the UK as well as Great Britain
So is English, but that doesn’t mean it plays well with those who regard themselves as something else.
@ Roland
Alas I must confess….tis my youth that makes me optimistic when it comes to my predictions :)
:) :) :)
Eoin
“Britain is England and Wales
get an atlas old chap”
It is yourself that needs the Atlas………..old chap.
This does seem an odd result – but you have to remember the Tory campaign has always been to spend money in those marginals they’ve a chance of winning. In Norwich North they need a 10% swing against a backdrop of strong support for the Greens. It’s possible they simply haven’t been going as hard in this particular constituency because they didn’t fancy they could pick up the votes needed (Labour, Lib Dem and Green are all left leaning parties and between them they account for 77% of the vote – it’s unlikely the Tories could win against this).
My understanding is that “Great Britain” refers to the Island that contains England, Wales and Scotland. “The British Isles” refers to all of the lumps of rock, large and small, west of France. “The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland” refers to, well, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. “British” is a reference that most people (in the UK at least) understand refers to things relating to the United Kingdom as a whole, not just Great Britain.
concerning the debate on the Northern Ireland and the unity Protestant candidate for Fermanagh……..I’m shocked
Its a massive step backwards…..speaking from a Protestant perspective……
The fact that the main Unionist parties and Cameron are collaberating in this decision shows that the old ties of ‘jobs for the boys’ still holds strong in NI unionist politics…..
The thing is the word “UKish” doesnt exist….
There is no collective demonym for the UK other than British!
We dont call the UK Olympic team ‘the UKish Olympic team’ even though it includes Northern Ireland.
Believe me, i am a stickler for the difference between the UK and GB but in this case there isnt much choice.
@Colin
It gives me no pleasure to tell you but you are wrong.
The comments regarding my appraisal of dissident groups reaction to this announcement are very immature.
79% of NI people voted for peace. It was overwhelming. None of us but for a few who capitalise on buffonery such as today’s faux pas have anything to gain.
As a tax payer I have a right to voice my opinion to geneticly modified politics
Colin et al,
Britian is England and Wales
Oh, and to use “English” is as insulting to the English as it is to the Irish, the Scots and the Welsh.
Er, Eoin, you are totally wrong on this.
Scotland is in Great Britain. Section 1 of the 1707 Act of Union says:
That the two kingdoms of Scotland and England shall, upon the Ist day of May next ensuing the date hereof, and for ever after, be united into one kingdom by the name of Great Britain
Eoin
“It gives me no pleasure to tell you but you are wrong.”
It gives me immense pleasure to tell you that Britain is-or can be the same thing as the United Kingdom.
Where I used to live , the ancient name for Britain – the root word of Britanica-lives on in a wild and beautiful headland , home to chough & raven.
Britain is all sorts of things to all sorts of people Eoin.
Last fandango
Dont you think as an Irishman I would know if I lived in Britain or not?
I live in the United Kingdom yes,
But only Eng and Wal live in Britain
But to be historically accurate….
Britain comes from the Roman Provence Britannia:
The Britannias was the original Latin name the Roman Empire gave to the British Isles. Later, Britannia became the preferred Roman term for the island of Great Britain, and in particular the Roman province of Britain which extended north as far as Hadrian’s Wall.
Good night……………..
Eoin
“The comments regarding my appraisal of dissident groups reaction to this announcement are very immature”
It is not immature to request that threats that violence, or intimations that violence will result from a given political outcome in NI -or anywhere else in UK, are not made on this website.
@Colin,
I made no such threats….. it is political analysis.
I care for no such outcome. I have a son who will be a teenage Catholic very soon. It would be a living nightmare and the end of all my happiness if there was to be such violence.
It is gorssly insensitive of you to ever allege such things. I am genuinely hurt and will thus retire for the evening.
Your misguided on this. But that is ok- we’re used to it.
Eoin, if you live in Scotland (which as I understand it you do) then you live in Scotland, Britain and the UK all at the same time. It is a legal and political fact. Remarkable how you can be in 3 places all at once but there you are.
I’m sure Eoin is a a WUM as arguing Scotland is not in Britain is about as sensible as Paris is not the capital of France.
If this strange idea has some obscure connection to a Roman political designation it follows that none none of the constituent countries of Britain existed back then so is he also insisting England, Scotland and Wales do not exist.
Well the WUm worked because we’ve actually responded…
Can we please get this right, once and for all…
UNITED KINGDOM: Political entity, comprising the nation state as constituted by the Act of Union (1707), the Act of Union (1800), and the Government of Ireland Act (1920). A member of the United Nations and European Union.
ENGLAND (1): Politial entity. no such entity has existed since 1707.
ENGLAND (2): Historical political entity. The kingdom and nation state in existence from the 10th century until the Act of Union (1707).
ENGLAND (3): Geographical entity, though ill-defined, comprising the southern two-thirds of Great Britain (see below) and adjacent islands (Wight, etc).
ENGLAND (4): Colloquial entity, comprising the ancestral homeland occupied by the people regarding themselves as English (and, with the exception of separatists, Cornish).
SCOTLAND (1): Politial entity, comprising the territory subject to devolved government under the Scotland Act 1998. A constituent member of the United Kingdom.
SCOTLAND (2): Historical political entity. The kingdom and nation state in existence from the 10th century until the Act of Union (1707).
SCOTLAND (3): Geographical entity, though ill-defined, comprising the northern third of Great Britain (see below) and adjacent islands (Inner Hebrides, etc).
SCOTLAND (4): Colloquial entity, comprising the ancestral homeland occupied by the people regarding themselves as Scots.
WALES (1): Politial entity, comprising the territory subject to devolved government under the Government of Wales Act 1998. A constituent member of the United Kingdom.
WALES (2): Historical political entity. Never existed. Prior to annexation it was a fragmented collection of small political entities.
WALES (3): Geographical entity, though ill-defined, comprising the western midland peninsula of Great Britain (see below), and adjacent islands (Anglesey/Mon, etc)..
WALES (4): Colloquial entity, comprising the ancestral (post-Saxon) homeland occupied by the people regarding themselves as Welsh.
GREAT BRITAIN: Geographical entity, comprising the eastern mainland of the northwest European archipelago, made up of England, Scotland, and Wales as per definitions (3) above.
IRELAND (1a) = REPUBLIC OF IRELAND: Political entity, comprising the nation state as constituted by the Government of Ireland Act (1920) and subsequent treaties and Acts. A member of the United Nations and European Union.
IRELAND (1b) = NORTHERN IRELAND: Political entity, comprising the territory subject to devolved government as constituted by the Government of Ireland Act (1920) and subsequent treaties and Acts. A constituent member of the United Kingdom.
IRELAND (2): Historical political entity. Never existed. Prior to annexation it was a fragmented collection of small political entities.
IRELAND (3): Geographical entity, comprising the western mainland of the northwest European archipelago, and adjacent islands (Aran, etc).
IRELAND (4): Colloquial entity, comprising the ancestral homeland occupied by the people regarding themselves as Irish, but with the exception of those in Northern Ireland (see 1b above) who regard themselves as British (see below).
BRITAIN (1) = UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND IRELAND (1): Politial entity. no such entity has existed effectively since 1921, and legally since 1927.
BRITAIN (2): Historical political entity. The kingdom and nation state in existence from the Act of Union (1800) until the Goverment of Ireland Act (1920).
BRITAIN (3) = BRITISH ISLES: Geographical entity, comprising the entirety of the northwest European archipelago, plus offshore islands (Scillies, Man, Outer Hebrides, Orkeney, Shetland, etc).
BRITAIN (4): Colloquial entity, comprising the ancestral homeland occupied by the people regarding themselves as British. As such, it is a fluid term meaning different things to different people, but has no firm or fixed relation to any political or geographic entity. Etymologically (but in no other way) derived from Britannia, a Roman province covering, by and large, the modern territory of England.
Fido, Colin, Fandango
The level of geo-political ignorance astounds me
Britian is England and Wales
Great Britain is Enlgand, Soctlandand Wales
United Kingdom i sEngland, Soctland Wales and NI
@Last Fandango- no I do not live it Scotland.
@Steve – my warmest regards on giving a clear and factual guide to usage of terms – showing for one thing that how one understands a place affects one’s usage of the term!
As we’re covering the “Unionist unity” candidate in Fermanagh South Tyrone – I have (to a degree) a vested interest as a Northern Irish Tory living in England! Trying to keep reasonable unbiased though – I think the remarks made by politicians about “sectarianising” politics have to be taken with a pinch of salt – the nationalist parties are fighting to shore up their own vote! Margaret Ritchie condemned the move for example – but she’s trying to fight off a strong challenge in South Down, and needs to play up her “green” credentials to her core voters.
The problem of course is that from a Tory perspective, one would like Northern Irish voters, regardless of community, to vote on national issues and engage with UK politics. The nature of the Northern Irish politics though is that one community expresses a desire (to varying degrees of intensity) to disintegrate from the UK and integrate with the Republic of Ireland, whilst the other community (to equally varying degrees) are fearful of that … which creates fear in the other community … and so on.
So I think trying to paint it as a black and white “sectarian” issue over simplifies it – the issue runs much deeper than just one candidate.
Posted elsewhere but repeated here for good measure…
@Eoin
“Now think logically boys, what was England and Wales in 1706?”
You have answered your own question – it was the Kingdom of England, which incorporated and included the Principality of Wales.
Eoin, you assertion has no basis in the accepted usage of the English usage or politico- legal facts.
A couple of examples:
The Lord Chief Justice of England and Wales is referred to as just that. He is not called the Lord Chief Justice of Britain. The laws of England and Wales are referred to as just that – not the laws of Britain.
The British Empire is called just that. On your analysis it should be called the ‘Great British Empire’ (assuming you regard Ireland as a subject state of the Empire rather than part of its ruling polity). Or maybe you think the British Empire was the empire of the English and the Welsh, which would be a truly bizarre assertion given the prominent role of Scots and Scotland in the imperial project?
The New Oxford American Dictionary states that the term Britain is “synonymous with Great Britain”.
Since you mention the Act of Union, if you look at the text of the Scottish version you will find no reference to Britain, only Great Britain. And the phrase “British” is used to mean “of Great Britain”.
And as for referring back to Roman administrative divisions, I can only assume that people in the Channel Islands cross to the other side of the street when you refer to them as living in Gaul….
@Eoin: You have made absolutely no effort to provide a single source that supports your definition of ‘Britain’. If you do search you won’t find one, because it’s wrong.
There are a couple of mis-conceptions about Northern Ireland here though:
1. Unionists define themselves as ‘British’, Republicans define themselves as ‘Irish’ (nobody defines themselves as ‘Northern Irish’).
2. The ‘British’ olympic team reflects this. It includes Unionists, whereas Republicans compete for the Republic of Ireland (they actually also tend to hold ‘Irish’ nationality).
3. Just to confuse things, the ‘Ireland’ rugby team is made up of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (both Unionists and Republicans).