YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%(-3), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 19%(+2). This means that both Angus Reid and YouGov are suggesting a boost to the Lib Dems from the first day of the campaign, though realistically these things could just as easily be normal sample variation.

It also drops YouGov’s Conservative score down well below the 40% point. Assuming that sticks it suggests their boost from the budget and the initial endorsement of their NI position by business leaders last week has subsided…or that the bank holiday weekend just produced some rather Toryish samples. We’ll never know.

In the other questions in YouGov’s poll, people were most likely to think that David Cameron had the most impressive campaign launch, but asked which party’s campaign was most impressive so far the Liberal Democrats came very narrowly top.


118 Responses to “YouGov Daily Poll – 37/32/19”

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  1. “Incidentally, are the bookies still so gung ho about a Tory majority?”
    In a previous thread I tried to explain how the bookies don’t just work out their prices on likelihood of an event, but very much on how much money is staked on that outcome.
    Remember, bookies don’t have inside information on what’s going to happen. They only know how many people are putting their money where their mouth is and the weight of money on the Tories to win means there would have to be an enormous amount of money put on Labour to win to risk them ‘rocking the boat’ by cutting the price on Labour to win.

  2. I’ve mentioned that there tends to be a bounce to the government (or at least a drop in the opposition party’s support) just after an election is called. It looks as if it’s happened again this time.

  3. @ Kai Griffin

    It will translate tomorrow. Events tend to take 1 day to come through. so this poll relates to the announcement of the General Election imo

  4. As soon as the polls go against the Tories….”They are all rubbish”…”They are fixed”….”bad weighting”….”they are all rubbish”….it is all so transparent.

    Can we not just have polls published that show the Tories are 10% in front or above…..it would save all the teeth gnashing and upset of so many posters on here.

    So which pollster has the Tory “Gold Standard” or has it been packed away in a cave like the Shadow Cabinet?

  5. @Dan

    I don’t think that GB’s treatment of the heckler will influence anyone much one way or another.

    As for hopeless case, 30% to 32% of voters plan to vote for him at the moment.

  6. To paraphrase an excellent article in tonight’s Evening Standard, the Tories will not benefit from the mood for change from Labour unless they can provide the electorate with an answer to the question “The Tories will be better for the country than Labour because …”.

    If this doesn’t happen in the next week or so, there is the real potential for a tipping point whereby undecided voters decide to give the LibDems a shot after all. All bets are off at that point.

  7. Possibly the firm trend for the Conservatives has stalled for now but the Lib Dem share was a bit low in You Gov yesterday and many electors are open to persuasion, though Labour didn’t have the best run of events today. I’m sure it’ll be an exciting campaign!

  8. Whatever your politics or view of GB, considering the onslaught he has seen off from Blairites and their descendants, it’s difficult to think of him as hopeless. I Think his enemies under estimate him at their own risk.

  9. Interesting poll, still within the margin of error.

    If the Lib Dems continue to firm up a bit further, I fully expect more deathbed conversions by Gordon Brown to Lib Dem policies, i.e. PR etc.

  10. @NBeale – the worry for the tories might be, if Labour have had a bad couple of days and weeks, why is the lead still around the 7% mark ?
    What might happen if Labour really DO have a good couple of weeks ?

  11. @Julian Gilbert

    Thanks. That explains the betting skew (which I looked up all by myself!) very clearly.

  12. Andrew Holden
    @NBeale – the worry for the tories might be, if Labour have had a bad couple of days and weeks, why is the lead still around the 7% mark ?
    What might happen if Labour really DO have a good couple of weeks ?

    *****************************************************

    That’s a fair point. It’s probably why big business are stepping in and doing the Tories campaign job for them!

  13. @Richard O, Nick Clegg said yesterday that Labour & the Tories talk about reform, but in practice renege on their commitments in that direction. He is clearly not going to believe any promises, so I don’t think GB will make any. Negotiations in the event of a hung Parliament are the time to discuss such things.

  14. Well within the MOE, and it is usual to see a swing to the incumbents. I have seen many GEs in my time, hence I believe I am well qualified to comment here- it has happened in every election I can remember, especially in ’79.

    The ongoing GB vs Business, Prosperity and Jobs in the ongoing NI increase row will do Labour little good.

    “This couldnot have come at a worse time” was a comment from a Labour insider.

  15. It seems to me, especially with the YouGov polls, that as soon as the polls are seen to narrow, and there is talk of a close election and hung parliament, people start to remember that they really want a change of govt., and so the tory lead increases again.

    Then, as the tory lead reaches 9 or 10%, people think, ‘no, we don’t want a tory govt. THAT much’, and the lead decreases again.

    This could continue happening for the next 4 weeks. The question is, at which point on this wave will we be on May 6th ?

  16. Derek Pierson
    @Richard O, Nick Clegg said yesterday that Labour & the Tories talk about reform, but in practice renege on their commitments in that direction. He is clearly not going to believe any promises, so I don’t think GB will make any. Negotiations in the event of a hung Parliament are the time to discuss such things.
    ************************************************

    Jeremy Paxman on newsnight just now. ‘is the increased chances of a hung parliament, the reason why Labour are showing a ‘bit of leg’ to the Liberal Democrats!’.

  17. The debates are going to be crucial. You’d think that that can only favour Cameron with his easier communication style, but the pressure is really on him. Over confident and he’ll risk the Kinnock Sheffield trap; Nice Tory and he upsets the party core and loses votes to UKIP; Nasty Tory and he loses the middle ground.

    GB just has to do better that most expect – which is very badly.

  18. I’ve noticed this wave effect of opinion polls influencing themselves a few days in the future.

  19. Has there been any research that backs up the view that the NI issue is working against Labour, or do we take the Tory Press spin at face value?

  20. So many words expended over a few percentage points here and there. The basic situation hasn’t changed. Labour majority = very unlikely, Tory majority = possible, Hung Parliament = probable.

  21. For the first time I’m inclined to think there will be hung parliament.

    A good possibility is Con 310 Lab 230 Lib Dems 80

  22. @Dan – Thanks! I think that has to be the case! I also think that Gordon Brown handled the heckler badly, he could have just turned round and said something like “email so and so and they will look at your case.. children getting into their local school is a major concern of mine… thanks for raising the issue.. etc…” However he demonstrated some arrogance of lack of confidence, not sure which one! I predict that Gordon Brown’s lack of people skills and charisma will play more of a role in deciding the result than the whole argument over NI; the more people see him campaign the more they will realize that they couldn’t bear to see how smug he would be if he managed to achieve a mandate!!

  23. @SIMON

    Watching Cameron campaign the last couple of days I think he is already ‘doing a Kinnock’ and this will be reinforced in the debates.

  24. Having read this blog for the past few weeks, I am interested that most posters assume the tories will do better in marginal seats than in safe seats. I am not a lib dem supporter, but if I was I would be inclined to vote labour in a lab-con marginal to increase the chances of a hung parliament (safe in the knowledge that there is no chance of an overall labour majority). I would not have voted labour in 2005 due to the war. In short I suspect there will be significant tactical voting from lib dem to labour, or at least more so than in 2005. Is there any evidence of this on the doorstep?

  25. @Richard O – “That’s a fair point. It’s probably why big business are stepping in and doing the Tories campaign job for them!”

    I assume you are therefore implying that all these CEO’s and chairmen are all Tory supporters ?!
    Which of-course they probably are.

    I still would have thought that Labour would be better reminding people how the Tories and the CBI all said that the minimum wage would also cost 100’s of thousands of jobs.

  26. I’m not surprised that people like the libdems campaign best. They seem to address the issues rather than sling mud like the other parties.. The tories have done very little but sling mud since Cameron took over, and Labour seems to be starting to sling it back now.

    I wish they’d both stop it. I find it a big turn off.

  27. I agree Kai,

    The heckler was poorly handled by Brown. He should have turned round, said it was a big concern of his and he would look in to the individual case and get all the facts, then got in the car.

    Personally I hate these situations though. I always suspect the two main parties are behind a few of these ‘hecklers’….

  28. @Steve D, the Populus poll asked about this. 43% backed the Tories proposal, but 45% opposed it. That looks bad for the Tories on the face of it, but it isn’t because if 43% voted for them, they’d almost certainly get a majority.

  29. I hope there is a hung parliament. We might see a return of the maverick MP. Someone who can debate, rebel on principle and make a difference. Big majorities breed muppets who just go where they’re told by the whip.

  30. Leslie: Good analysis.

    Neil: Sounds correct to me.

    Dan: I don’t think it’s fair of you to expect me to fill in the missings words in your post – especially if once I’d figured it out I was supposed to be convinced that GB dealing with a heckler would influence tomorrow’s poll by 5% points.

  31. looking at some of the comments on here, it makes me wonder what figures ppl have been reading. The polls are consistent with exception of the one which is the clear outlier, yes u guessed it Angus Reid. I wonder where he polls, ,,, Henley and MoorPark? LOL

  32. Simon
    I hope there is a hung parliament. We might see a return of the maverick MP. Someone who can debate, rebel on principle and make a difference. Big majorities breed muppets who just go where they’re told by the whip.
    ****************************************************
    I am commenting on everything tonight!, so I will make this my last post. I agree with the latter part. Big majorities like that in 1997, and a couple of the ones Margaret Thatcher got, are bad for democracy. I will always believe that, whatever anybody says. It’s why 1992 was a terrible election to win for the Tories.

    If Kinnock had have scraped the 1992 election, I can all but guarantee, that Labout would have been out for 20 years after that. No question of this in my mind.

  33. @NEILA ‘So many words expended over a few percentage points here and there. ‘

    Yes – the comments go round and round and round !

    I’ve basically stopped posting – everything is so repetitive

    I look forward to reading AW and to chuckling at the rest !!

  34. Good point Richard! You would hope not, but who knows these days!

    I don’t think that Cameron is doing a Kinnock, however his comment today that half the country was now tory could be percieved to be Kinnockesque (if you can make a word out of that)! I also think that Nick Clegg may come unstuck with some of the rhetoric he is using- the frequent use of the word corruption etc.. George Osbourne got blasted for talking the pound down – maybe NC will get the same treatment for talking down the democracy that the UK is so proud of?!

  35. @Derek Pierson

    Thanks for the figures. Of course if 45% voted Labour they would get a majority too :)

    I’m just wondering if it is going to be one of those issues that dominates the minds of the media and election strategists, but doesn’t really influence peoples choice of who to vote for.

    Just read some of the front page headlines from the Tory press. The Mail have really got stuck in with ‘1.67 million jobs have gone to foreigners since 1997’!

    If it is time for a change, a shame no one has told the Tory press :)

  36. Heard someone talking about the ‘Westminster gecko’ and thought they had discovered a new species of reptile in the Houses of Parliament, until I realised it was ‘ghetto’…

    Quite a few people who were happy with YouGov over the weekend now not so. Sorry, but you can’t pick and choose. This poll supports the wider picture of a distinct rise in Tory support following the NI tax announcement followed by a slow return to the earlier position. YouGov may be showing more movement between polls simply because they follow the rise and fall of media coverage on a shorter time scale where ‘froth’ is more likely to be picked up.
    Those who think this poll is a joke – ask yourself why Labour are keen to keep the NI/business support debate stoked up? Obviously their own polling is telling them something about Tory credibility on this.

  37. Its been a fascinating start to the campaign. With reference to the comment above about Cam doing a Kinnock I agree its certainly a possibility.

    Cameron at his best speaks without notes, sounds humble and speaks for the middle classes. Cameron at his worst is hectoring, arrogant and snooty. And we’ve seen a lot of that over recent weeks.

    I’ve been saying for a few days that I see the Tories NI move to be tactically brilliant but strategically suicidal, and the pieces to back this up are falling into place. On one hand you have the Tories, flanked by big business leaders saying they aren’t going to pay extra taxes. On the other hand you have Labour saying they need to pay extra tax or you will AND lose your services.

    There is still an ocean of upset around how business – bankers, the city, the very well off – have basically got away with creating a global crash and our deepest recession for generations. We now have a parade of major business leaders saying that if we the public ask them to pay more tax they will make us redundant.

    How is this a long-term vote winner for the Tories? Not only is it cut business taxes or we sack people, its also BTW in cutting their tax thats even more cash we need from you to cut the deficit.

  38. Simon – Labour’s big majorities certainly haven’t bred MPs afraid to rebel against the whips – it is a myth that recent Parliaments have seen low levels of rebellion, in fact they have seen record high levels of rebellion,

    See Phil Cowley’s work on Parliamentary rebellions at http://www.revolts.co.uk

  39. Have Angus Reid made any comments about why they think they always have a much lower Labour vote than anyone else

  40. The Gay B&B ‘error’ by Conservatives over the weekend will have filtered through now and could be playing a part in the declining tory poll lead. I didnt see Cameron address this issue

  41. The press just like an incident. GB was in his seat in the car before the heckler started heckling from 3 yards away. The security men would not have allowed him any nearer (I hope). Let’s be fair, the endless photo ops and so on are so boring the press will want to create ‘incidents’ even if the public don’t.

    I can only put down the nightly repeated banal posts about the results to lack of intellect. The new people who come on are usually quick learners and cease the Clapham bus anecdotes and denial stance, even if they are partisans. But the repeaters, I suspect, are those that are employed as newspaper Comment column responders and never stay long enough here to discover its a different sort of site.

  42. @ PAUL CROFT

    Despite the Hecklers obvious ignorance in the field of debate and communication I too believe the polls will widen to 7/8% for a bit in response to this.

    Camerons lack of an answer to, ‘ So tell us why you want this job?’ is costing them a quarter of a point a day

  43. Why do people insist on conflating the “Bankers” and “Business”? The vast majority of businessmen ply their trade in industries that are light-years removed from the “sub-prime” banking disaster. It is pure political opportunism to try and turn the justified public anger at the bankers into a generalised hatred of the “business class”.

    There is a general principle that you tax things you want to see less of. Tax alcohol, tax fatty foods, tax air travel etc. But employing staff seems a strange thing to want to disincentivise.

  44. @Ian bailey – “I see the Tories NI move to be tactically brilliant but strategically suicidal, and the pieces to back this up are falling into place.”
    I think you have been very astute. Labour are now referring to the dire warnings around the minimum wage that never materialised, and have also been flagging up the increase in employment following the 2002 NI rise. Tesco’s have today declined to join the Tory campaign, stating that the deficit needs to be cut and difficult choices are needed. Populus has found more people oppose the Tory proposal than approve (45/43). It begins to look like this could be another Lisbon Referendum moment – a brilliant tactical wheeze that slowly unwinds and ends up as a millstone round the parties neck.

  45. Richard O; “All but guaranteeing” what would have happened next if Neil Kinnock had one a general elstion nearly twenty years ago is taking theorising to rather silly levels.

    Still, in the same spirit I can “all but guarantee” that, in actual fact, had he done so he’d still be prime minister now, and the most popular man in the country.

    In fact, everything but the actual guarantee….

  46. @Neil_

    Cameron will do all he can to avoid the Chris Grayling comment. He can neither disagree or agree with him because of the consequences. I hope the consequences of agreeing with him are obvious. To disagree would open a whole can of worms about why he doesn’t sack him etc.

    I’ve not seen many attempts to put him on the spot over this by the media, so I hope that changes.

    Still, any lingering hopes Grayling had of being Home Secretary in a Cameron Government must have gone.

  47. “a week is a long time in politics”
    – – – and so it is. A few days ago some people were confidently predicting that the Tory lead would zoom up into the teens.

  48. Alec – Populus didn’t find that on NI. That seems to be the figure amongst only those who want change, but aren’t sure on the Conservatives.

    Annoyingly they either didn’t ask it to the whole sample, or didn’t publish it (hopefully it’s the latter and it’ll turn up when the tables do)

  49. @Steve D
    Outside London and ‘the media’, the majority of people will either agree with the landlady or not care, and hence Chris Grayling’s comments will probably play quite well.

  50. Neil A “Why do people insist on conflating the “Bankers” and “Business”? The vast majority of businessmen ply their trade in industries that are light-years removed from the “sub-prime” banking disaster. It is pure political opportunism to try and turn the justified public anger at the bankers into a generalised hatred of the “business class”.”

    Because people do equate them? For most working people the MD and frankly the board live in a different universe to themselves. We’re not talking about small business leaders here, we’re talking the captains of industry on 6-7 figure salaries who make decisions about the jobs of little people without breaking a sweat.

    They get bundled together with the bankers they stand to gain personally from a cut in NICs and 50% tax. Big business is telling their workforce that an increase in NICs to pay for the deficit will cost them their jobs. not increasing NICs gives them more profit which they personally benefit from in higher bonuses and salary. Its not their workforce that benefit from a few million quid in extra profit, its the board.

    So it sounds pretty harsh – especially when the cash not raised from big business has to be raised from their workforce instead.This one is going to backfire spectacularly on the Tories.

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