YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%(-3), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 19%(+2). This means that both Angus Reid and YouGov are suggesting a boost to the Lib Dems from the first day of the campaign, though realistically these things could just as easily be normal sample variation.

It also drops YouGov’s Conservative score down well below the 40% point. Assuming that sticks it suggests their boost from the budget and the initial endorsement of their NI position by business leaders last week has subsided…or that the bank holiday weekend just produced some rather Toryish samples. We’ll never know.

In the other questions in YouGov’s poll, people were most likely to think that David Cameron had the most impressive campaign launch, but asked which party’s campaign was most impressive so far the Liberal Democrats came very narrowly top.


118 Responses to “YouGov Daily Poll – 37/32/19”

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  1. Blooming eck, perhaps Brown can win this after all?

  2. The Yougov site has figures of 39/32/18. Which is correct?

  3. Richard, YouGov site shows the figures above. Quite unexpected!

  4. When will the ukpr average be updated?

  5. The polls are becoming a big joke. Pick your party and pick a poll that suits you.

    Good job theses compaies do not carry out market surveys for industry. They would lose their credibility very quickly.

  6. this is more like it.
    Tories lead cut in half in 2 days

    Game on!

  7. But most interesting of all is the fact that 35% say that the economy will grow if Labour win the election – this gives Labour a big foundation to get votes if they can secure the reputation for economic competence

  8. 32 is back to form for Lab from YouGov, as is 19 for Lib Dem. 37 is quite a drop for Con; that’s a bit of a shock.

  9. Budget Bounce is deffinitely over –

    Interesting reading the Populus breakdown regarding NI – quite a majority saying the Cons have got it wrong. Think the Cons have got this wrong pushing the business leader angle – wonder if the media obsession with this will die down now.

  10. Extrapolating this trend, Labour will have a poll lead of well over 100% come May 6.

  11. Absolutely STAGGERING….I give up…these polls and pollsters are doing themselves no favours at all IMHO…They are all over the place and certainly at the moment I for one will pass a glance at them but pay them (whatever and whoever they favour) no creadence at all…
    They are becoming a bit of a joke at the monent…..sorry AW..how can they all vary so much not only from company to company but within a day of themselves..? It’s ridiculous…

  12. Today was a dreadful day for Gordon. I expect a jump in the Tory Lead tomorrow

  13. Anyone any thoughts about what “Bank-Holiday” factors might produce a Tory blip upwards. I should note that I am not convinced, but it would make an interesting discussion.

  14. ICM 4%
    YG 5%
    TNS 5%
    IPSOS 5%
    Populus 5%

    AR 11%
    Harris 10%
    Opinium 10%

    Who is right?

  15. I think these polls will remain within 5 to 10 point leads through to Election day, but what i think is happening is that voters who have decided to vote Labour are the most certain and the Conservative voters are the least decided. I still predict that with tactical unwind and marginal performance the Conservatives will win with a 20 seat majority on a lead of 8 points in the vote share:

    CON 39%
    LAB 31%
    LD 20%
    OTH 10%

  16. There does seem to be signs of a slight recovery by Labour after a good couple of weeks for the Tories.

    Interesting that Labour made a lot of noise today about constitutional change. One reason could be that this will make them more attractive partners to the Lib Dems in a hung parliament, but it may also play well to LD supporters in the marginals – at least those where the LDs can’t win.

  17. So the Tory’s lead has been slashed from 10% to 5% in just 48 hours!!

    Still, it could have been worse for the Tories – if YouGov weren’t now adding certainty to vote to their methodology it would only be a 4% lead.

  18. They’ve updated their website now I see! It did say 39/32/18 just a few moments ago. I expect we’re seeing the beginning of yet another batch of diminishing leads from YouGov. Makes you wonder if they’ve changed their methodolgy again.

  19. Very interesting…..and satisfactory !!

    Labour pledge on income tax tonight plus ludicrous Tory drip drip tactics of ‘businesspeople’ on NI matter: it would have been much more effective (and cleverer) to wait until the election was called and then open the campaign with every single one of them in one go at a big news conference. But one wonders how many more days we will see “today yet more….” – the voters are seeing through it.

    Finally- after nearly 2 weeks of bullet holes in Labour feet- we have had bad tactics last two days by the Conservatives…..and its showing in YG and Pop polls.

    Great stuff

  20. *correction Populus 7% (mistype)

  21. Wonder what the result would show under the methodology from last week – AW care to enlighten.

  22. @ Dan

    It’s been dreadful for Gordon for a while, bar Ashcroft and Grayling! I think we got used to very, very static polls, and now we’re back to normal sampling error.

  23. @Eoin Clarke

    Me: 7.5%

  24. MLB – no it wouldn’t, the likelihood to vote weighting didn’t make any difference at all to today’s figures, so without them the figures would have been exactly the same.

    Richard – no point wondering when you can just ask. No change at all.

  25. I really don’t understand how anyone can come on here and say the polls are all over the place when they are clearly not.

    the Tories have largely been averaging 37/38 and Labour 31/32 and this poll backs that up.

    the bank holiday polls were always likely to be rogue.
    we are coming back to where we were before Easter.

  26. Yougov are becoming a joke. They consistently underestimate the Tory lead. I wonder why that is…. I think The Sun should drop them and use Mori instead

  27. Some people were calling the ICM 4% Con lead a rogue -It doesn’t look like it now.
    Labour will be pleased and Hung Parliament is on the books again -though I do remember the caution – Rob S ;-)

  28. With these 3 polls that we have further evidence that somehow Yougov are underestimating the Lib Dems by a few points

  29. Chris – comments crossed in the ether, I’ve just replied to MLB asking the same question. Likelihood to vote weighting didn’t make any difference at all to today’s figures, so it would have still been a 5 point lead.

  30. Eoin: safest thing is to take the midpoint between both kinds of polls I think.

  31. My prediction for tomorrow You Gov

    Tory 40%
    Labour 30%
    Liberal 19%

  32. Big business lining up behind the tories backfiring in polls. How many ‘rogue’ ‘outlier’ polls can we have? Conservative lead appears to fall the more exposure they get. Happened during tory Conference? Wouldnt be surprised if the gap in the polls closed further

  33. Polly:
    Just a guess but perhaps they aske people questions, write down the answers and do some sums. Perhaps it’s difficult for them all to come up with the same answer when public opinion is fluid.

    Anyway it’s much more exciting than wondering if ole Mark Chadderton will cheerily predict 40:30:20:10 or 40:30:20:10.

    As an added bonus it upsets Roland.

  34. @Antony – thanks yes I read your earlier comment.

    Just wondering why my post at 10.04 is still moderated?

  35. “The polls are becoming a big joke……..”
    “These polls are all over the place ……..…”
    I disagree. I think this is a misunderstanding of polling. Firstly, there is a margin of error of 3%. That means they are (mostly) within each other’s MOE.
    Secondly, polls shouldn’t be taken individually but as part of either a series of polls to detect trends or an average taken with other polls.
    Looked at like this, they give us a very good information about what is happening.
    As the polls stand now, we know…
    The Tories are ahead.
    The Tories are probably not more than 10 points ahead.
    The Tories have been gaining recently.
    Labour is highly unlikely to gain more votes than the Tories.
    The LD’s are highly unlikely to gain more votes than Labour.
    There is a strong chance of a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party

  36. It’s a tough choice for the floaters right now. The economy is improving, yet there is great antipathy towards a tired Labour administration. The Tories on the other hand are seen as the party of tough cuts to tackle the debt – very many will say that we need such strong measures, but nobody likes to swallow a bitter pill.

    I see a parallel with the Kinnock v Major election where everyone was tired of the government and Labour looked certain to win, but the voters stuck with the government because they feared the pain of change (in that election higher taxes rather than spending cuts).

  37. I see we have the “I don’t believe the polls brigade” back again. Worth pointing out it’s only 2 days since the ICM poll saying the Tory lead was 4%. Why don’t we calm down & just average them out? We will probably get a reasonably accurate picture.
    John Brown – you made me smile. I think you’ll find that many pollsters do carry out market research for industry! Certainly BMRB very much do (they had a low Tory lead a few days ago) – perhaps Anthony could tell us about other pollsters.

  38. Dan: That’s an impressively early prediction: why don’t you do all of the next 30 days while you’re at it?

    What facts was it based on by the way?

  39. @STEVE

    Agree with you entirely. All the polls are saying roughly the same within their margins of error. We are still looking at a Tory lead of between 4% and 10% at the optimistic end for both parties, more realistically I think between 6% and 8%.

    There is still everything to play for and the much anticipated marginals poll will help us to understand the picture much better. Think we are still in Hung Parliament territory myself.

    The polling companies can’t be criticized for the responses they get!

  40. The populus poll we know was not far off 8% (7.7%) for all we know the yougov poll may not have been far off 6% and the Angus Reid poll nearer 10%. Yougov is daily and has shown sudden changes over a period of time. Even if this means a 7% – 8% approximate lead, it is not bad for Labour particularly as two polls now have pegged the Tories back to 37%.

  41. What this site teaches is that nobody really knows what influences voting intention. Brown has had a pretty bad time according to the media in the last week, but seems to be reducing the Tory lead since Easter. The Sky News commentators hinted at the same thing: what the Westminster ghetto thinks is important isn’t the same as what the voters think is important.

  42. WMA 38:31:20 (CLead 8 due to rounding).

    YouGov has tended to under-estimate the CLead by about 1% recently (this remains true on the Retrospectives) and since the start of the year they have had 5 polls that have under-estimated the CLead by >3%.

    Reduces the R2 of the 14-day trend to 0.74 but this is still very high

    @Polly: repeat after me “polls are subject to random error with a +/-3% Margin of Error on each vote share”. If polls didn’t fuctuate we’d suspect they were fixed.

    @Rob: If you think Labour have had a good couple of days I wonder what you’d consider bad. Can’t you read body language? One look at the faces of the Brown cabinet says it all. They all know they will lose.

  43. I agree with some of the comments suggesting that faith in the polsters will be diminished if we continue to see significantly varying samples from day to day as is the case at the moment (particularly YG). That aside, with the lowest figures for tory share at around 37% it can hardly be cause for celebration in the Labour camp at the moment.

  44. I knew it – Richard A is the first – Yougov are becoming a joke. They consistently underestimate the Tory lead. I wonder why that is…. I think The Sun should drop them and use Mori instead.

    Of course you’ve conveniently forgotten they had a double figure Tory lead for 2 days, more than several other pollsters had. Duh.

  45. There do seem to be a lot of people who only believe polls that show their party doing well. Incidentally, are the bookies still so gung ho about a Tory majority?

  46. The marginal poll is going to be interesting tommorrow.

  47. Bizarre!! I was expecting a CON figure of about 40, maybe the events of today will show tomorrow, I don’t see how the lead could effectively half with the coverage of the campaign so far; who knows? All I can predict is that it’s going to be interesting!!

  48. Nobody mocked me yesterday when I said I wasn’t convinced by YG at around 8/9/10 CON lead.

    I said that IMO the lead was more like 4/5/6. I did not expect YG to be a 5 so soon.

    I wonder if YG tomorrow & weekend polls will confirm this outcome or if this is a rogue YG :-)

  49. @NBeale

    Thanks for repeating the Tory press spin of todays’ PMQ’s. If body language is significant then DC wants to stop going round the country acting like he is already PM before he is given a mandate.

  50. Poly Ticks,

    Within each pollster, the variation will be a mix or sample error and real movement.

    Between pollsters, there is a real “established pollster” versus “new kids on the block” division with regards to Labour share.

    The WMA including ICM,YouGov,Comres,Populus is 38/32/20

    For Angus Reid, Opinium and Harris it is: 38/27/20

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