There is a new Angus Reid out on Political Betting. The topline figures with changes from their poll in the Sunday Express are CON 37%(-1), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 22%(+2). The poll was conducted Tuesday and today, so is mostly “post-announcement”.

No significant change in itself. Tonight I am also expecting Populus’s first national poll since February, and YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun. Tomorrow I’ve heard there may be a MORI poll of marginals, but I don’t know if that is actually published tomorrow, or in one of tomorrow’s (i.e. tonight’s) papers.

39 Responses to “Angus Reid/Political Betting – 37/26/22”

  1. Strangely enough I’m not sure the Tories will want too many polls with Labour on 26% because the last thing they want is for complacency to set in with 117 seats needed for a majority of one seat.

  2. This poll seems slightly out, as usual for AR

  3. Andy JS,

    Angus Reid appear to be universally ignored by the media. Perhaps its because it shows Labour on 26, when the established pollsters have them on 30+?

  4. Andy,

    Couldn’t agree more. They need polls showing they are there or thereabouts, to encourage people to believe it’s worth their while turning out and voting. That suggests about 8% lead I would think. I’m sure there will be plenty of expertise available to correct me if I’m wrong!

  5. They will want more like this than the ones showing them only 4 points ahead . Also , polls showing a winning Conservative lead may lead to more Labour voters staying home too if they don’t think turning up will change the result.

  6. @ANDY & SIMON
    I can tell you guys that complacency was a big concern for Cameron last year. However after the first 3 months of this year the penny has dropped that this election has got to be won.

  7. @statto
    Five of the last 10 polls have had Labour under 30.

  8. This is not far off the other polls so i would not write it off as a rogue. Maybe people now realise they have to decide and realise Labours record is not very good.

    I still say people will swing to the tories more and more, and a majority for the tories is likely.

  9. Is that 22% the new LD figure because of the election publicity, or normal statistical noise. Only time will tell, but it can’t be bad news for them.

    I like the different travel plans for the leaders, Cameron flying, Clegg Battle Bussing and Brown interrailing around the UK for a month. Planes, Trains and Automobiles indeed.

  10. @STATO
    That is not counting this AR poll, so 6 out of 11 under 30.

  11. Populus, (just up on Times website)

    C – 39.3%
    Lab – 31.6%
    LD – 20.8%
    Others – 8.3%

  12. Why do the Angus Reid polls, anecdotely at least, feel so odd! Labour are on more than 26%.

  13. The dividing lines that have been drawn so far are quite clear:

    Labour – defensive – Class War + defending NI hike on basis that cutting tax is “taking money out of the economy” (their new economic theory seems to be that reducing taxes = taking money out of the economy)

    Conservative – front foot – if you’re part of the great ignored (who isn’t?), we’re on your side + NI hike is a tax on jobs (confirmed by the business community)

    How easy is it for Labour to succeed when they seem to be on the defensive? How easy will it be for Labour to pull ahead in the polls while on the back foot?

  14. Headline:

    David Cameron’s poll lead falls, amid growing fears of a hung parliament

    Leading paragraph:

    David Cameron’s opinion poll lead has fallen over the last two months, amid growing Tory fears that the party may be unable to avoid a hung parliament.

    Body of text:

    The latest ratings are broadly in line with other recent polls over the past week, and suggest that the narrowing in the Tory lead during mid-March has been partially reversed.

    Trying to wring some negativity out of what is currently about par for the course.

    Calm down, Sue, calm down lol.

  15. @Andy JS;

    Totally agree. As a Tory voter, I actually quite liked it when the polls tightened to 2-3% with YouGov, as I sort of assume it will sharpen a few minds to vote for the Cons.
    The opposite I am sure is true, and Labour might get a better turnout if they go in to an election well done.

  16. I meant down. oops!

  17. Even this 11% lead would leave the Tories short of a majority on UNS. I’d rather see higher Labour figures, and higher Tory figures….

  18. Further evidence on how unreliable Angus Reid are – Lib Dem 4 points within Labour???? Surely these guys have to be ignored.

    Mori marginals will be key.

  19. Andy JS – Thank you for the Populus result.

    Conservatives will be happy (another knocking on 40%)
    Labour will be disapointed another in low 30%’s
    LibDems will be relieved and happy, climbing to near where they finished in 2005.

    What will the next poll/s show tonight?

  20. Well stuffed would do nicely, Richard. Ooops partisan comment – I withdraw!

  21. Roland – I said established pollsters – that makes 1 YouGov at 29, and even that is a long way from 26.

    Harris, Opinium, Angus Reid are in my opinion, noise, to be ignored. Populus, ICM, YouGov, Comres, pollsters with a track record to be watched.

  22. WMA 39:30:20 and this includes the latest Populus Poll (39:32:21) which has gone up on TimesOnline. (Absurd commentary on this claims the CLead has fallen because the last Populus poll was 2 months ago).

    The R2 of the 14-day trend is still a very strong 0.81

    @Thomas: I agree. Brown simply doesn’t understand how private enterprise works. If people believe that NI is going to rise next year they will hold back on hiring this year.

  23. Times/Populus CON 39.3 (-1) LAB 31.6 (+2) LDEM 20.8 (+1)
    from twitter

  24. @Andy JS – Thanks for the head’s up. Where did you get the decimal placing from? I have to say I do like seeing decimal placing, especially in regular polling.

    What was the last populus poll result – sounds like there has been movement to Labour.

  25. Simon

    Yes, when I read the headline I assumed the lead was down to around 4% again rather than the near 8%! “Growing fears” is one of the overused journalistic cliches and is completely meaningless.

    In a strange sort of way the Tories may prefer this poll to angus reid given that it gives them around the 40% mark again. That is the relevant figure over the next week or so – if the Tories can hold at around that level of support they will form the next government

  26. I would like to see Gordon Brown each morning jogging in cycling shorts like David Cameron.

    Might be worth a couple of percentage points?

  27. The NI debate reveals a huge degree of double-think on all sides. If you take another £6-£7 billion out of public revenues you are going to have to save £6-£7 billion just to get back to square one and all this talk of efficiency savings is code for cuts in jobs and people backrom and front-line, direct government employees, contractactors and others. So, adding another 30,000 or so to the likely 250,000 reduction in public sector and related employees is simply going to remove another chunk of consumer spending from the equation. Unless I’m missing something this is going to hurt business even more than Labour’s proposed NI increase. A final thought, it’s interesting that Tesco are not supporting the business leaders attacking the NI rise and, in the private sector, they pay more to the government in NI contributions than anyone else given their huge number of employees.

  28. @Richard – whatever floats your boat.

  29. Chris – that’s how it was being reported by The Times originally but they seem to have changed it now. I’ve never seen decimal points being used before but maybe it’s because the poll was close to being 40-31 rather than 39-32 that they decided to report it in that way but then changed their mind.

    Makes sense since a small change could make a big difference in this election.

  30. AR have dropped Labour by another point, although only to their average for the year from AR – 3 or 4 points below the other pollsters. They’ve dropped the Conservatives by a point too which together with their poll from the 31st of March are the lowest from AR this year. The Lib Dem result also matches the one from AR on the 31st, which is their joint highest for the Lib dems.

    Whilst there is not a significant change in the AR results, I bet the lib dems are happy to see a number in the 20s after the clutch of results in the teens in the last couple of days. My ten poll rolling average has only moved be a few tenths from this poll so nothing much to fret about.

  31. @DavidB

    So they are all wrong and you and GB are right then…..? Just a thought….

  32. Curious that AR have 41% supporting Tory policies on immigration vs. 12% for Lab, while Opinium (also for the Express) had 18% and 11% respectively last month.

    It could be that the question was phrased slightly differently but it could suggest that AR have a more Tory panel that the weightings do not address. However, their high other % suggests they have higher UKIP results.

    On the other hand, Opinium cite 35% don’t knows whereas AR don’t so maybe the overall pies are different.

  33. Quincel

    You were doing “ok” til that second to last line….just ok mind you… ;-)

  34. If I were still a Conservative supporter, I’d be a bit (well quite a lot , actually) worried. Still not back above 40% and with the knowledge that the Lib Dems will undoubtedly gain support now they are guaranteed equal exposure, which will further erode the Conservative figures.

    But if I were Labour (which I never have been), I would be looking at this poll with some skepticism but also real trepidation, because 26% is a disaster if it’s right. My guess is that it’s 2-3% too low, though, judging by other polls. The 15% others looks too high to be real. However, if the Lib Dems make any progress at Labour’s expense (as I think they will), Labour will stay close to 30% and any hope of emerging the biggest party goes out of the window – so Mr Brown will be packing his bags.

    Prediction: Con 35 Lab 30 Lib Dem 25 Others 10 (Hung parliamnet with Con biggest party).

  35. AR are not serious pollsters, surely.

  36. @DavidB
    You make some good points. People don’t realise the damage caused by cutting £6b from the economy. Perhaps when it’s too late. Mind you I’m not convinced it’s going to happen with the polls moving closer.

  37. Whether putting 1p on NI will damage the economy is not in question; it will, though not quite as much as the (mostly Tory leaning) business leaders would have you believe. Whether it will prove unpopular is likewise not in doubt; it will, big time.

    The question that has yet to be answered by any Conservative is this; how exactly (so no vague promises of “efficiency savings” will do) do you propose to fund the reversal of this increase as well as reducing the deficit? What exactly will you cut or what other taxes will you increase?

    Therese May was spectacularly evasive on this during a radio interview today and persisted in saying that they had identified cuts “as you all know” (clearly, noone else did!), whereas Simon Hughes was very clear; however much the Lib Dems WANT to reverse the NI increase, to do so would impose the need to cut unacceptably elsewhere or maintain an untenable level of debt. No such honesty from the Conservatives, who seem to be promising that we can have our cake and eat it.

  38. In considering these numbers, it has to be remembered that the Express is the world’s greatest newspaper. It says so on the front page.

  39. Sorry don’t quite understand how cutting NI will remove £6bn from the economy. The businesses and individuals who recieve the cut are better off and can spend or invest the money. In doing so they will pay more tax, thus recouping some of the cut. Yes public sector jobs will go, but at the same time the private sector (who generate real wealth) will be able to take on more workers, who will pay tax, recouping even more. As far as I can see it’s just a £6bn distribution in favour of wealth generation.