Tuesday round up


D minus 30.
Tonight’s polls:
YouGov/Sun (5th Apr-6th Apr) CON 40%(-1), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1)

As far as I know the only new GB poll tonight is YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun. I’m sure I heard something in the BBC newspaper review about a marginals poll in the Indy, but nothing has appeared yet so if it does exist it will have to wait for tomorrow. For publication tonight most polls would have had to start their fieldwork over the bank holiday weekend and I expect most will have waited until after to start. Populus for one started the fieldwork for their new poll this morning, and we will have their first poll of the campaign tomorrow night. Ipsos MORI have a new marginals poll due out on the 8th.

YouGov’s poll doesn’t show any significant change – all the figures are within 1 point of yesterday’s poll. The lead is back in single figures, but Conservatives are still on the psychologically (but not electorally) important figure of 40%. For those who follow the methodological intricacies of polls, without the turnout weighting it would have had a 7 point lead, so the same as the Tories were on through last week with YouGov.

The Lib Dems are back down to 17% points, a low score by YouGov’s recent standards. Amongst other things, the BBC producer guidelines for the general election come into play today with the announcement of the election date, so the Lib Dems can look forward to having a higher level of coverage in the broadcast media.

Another interesting development is that after the election Parliament will not reassemble until the 18th May, 12 days after the election compared to just 6 days in 2005 – presumably agreed in order to allow extra time for horsetrading in the even of a hung Parliament (UPDATE – nope, it is to allow a longer period for desk clearing and settling in, it was decided by the Commons Modernisation Committee long before a hung Parliament looked on the cards)


414 Responses to “Tuesday round up”

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  1. The Tory share of the vote is 37.4% accross all the various polling companies….

    The Labour share of the vote is 29.8% accross all the various polling companies

    I wonder will Populus confirm this?

  2. Bill Roy GB interview with Adam Boulton

    Did you get an explanation Bill? I was called to dinner but it was all explained by Robert Peston. The Tories want to save £6 billion now in preparation for not putting up the 0.5% extra next April for some groups. GB thinks that will put more on the dole (government contractors and employees), thus putting a brake on the recovery and of course getting less of it back in taxes. The Tories say that the extra tax next year will cost jobs. There’s more to it but that would have been beyond the likes of Adam Boulton (or his producer).

  3. Evening all,

    Won’t be around for long this evening, but just wanted to add my four penn’orth to a couple of points:

    First, we can argue backwards and forward about whose fault the (British) part in the financial crisis was until we’re blue in the face. Doesn’t matter. Mr and Mrs Electorate only want to know if we are recovering, how fast, and is it sustainable. The answer to the first question seems to be yes. To the second, we are told Britain is recovering more quickly than anyone else in the G7. As to the third – well, the party that can convince Mr and Mrs E that their way is the best to make it so will win the election.

    Regarding these new AR figures. That is a LOT of “others”. Some of them may stay as others, but I bet a large number of them are up for grabs amongst the main three parties.

  4. Tory 11% lead with ARS, very solid lead now, no complacency though. Labour languishing a bit, no complacency there certainly.
    BBC London just showed Gordon running away from a father asking about his son’s school. Embarrassing.

  5. The five polls included below are by the polling companies who use online panels. They have the Tory vote higher than the average of all polls. They have the Labour and Liberal vote lower than the average

    06-Apr 40 32 17
    05-Apr 39 29 17
    29-Mar 37 27 19
    27-Mar 37 30 20
    07-Apr 37 26 22

    T=38 La=28.8 LD=19

    Below is the four polls from the polling companies who do not use online panels. The have the Tory vote lower than the average. They have the Labour vote and the Liberal vote higher that the average.

    22-Mar 35 30 21
    30-Mar 38 33 19
    03-Apr 37 33 21
    28-Mar 37 30 20

    T=36.75 La=31.5 LD=20.25

    Lets be clear… with the online companies the gap is close to 10%. With the offline companies the gap is close to 5%.

    Am I wrong to think this is too big of a gap to turn a blind eye to?

  6. Eoin said earlier that UKIP and the BNP do better with older voters. Although that’s true for UKIP I don’t think it has been shown to be true for the BNP. The BNP do better in deprived areas but I don’t think it’s age-correlated.

  7. Howard – No, no one explained it. But the thing is that the money is not going ‘out of the economy’ it would just be used by people to live on basically. What GB did was perhaps Fraudian, I have long suspected that long serving Ministers (of any party) get trained in the Sir Humphrey way – I am sure all on here will recognise that as referring to the ‘Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister’ character.

    It would seem that rather than saying ‘that a proportion of the £6 billion pounds may not result in economic growth under the opposition plans’ GB would rather mislead by infering that the £6billion was disappearing from the economy, which of course it would not be. This is surely yet again another case of shooting himself in the foot, again he has mislead on the facts – and he was Chancellor for a decade, therefore he should know to use figures carefully.

    (Hi, hope the brambles have given up the fight against you now!)

  8. Ken
    without saying anything to my wife other than to say what did you see when GB was getting into his car just now.

    Her reply was ‘some pr*t who shouted about his local school admissions issue at GB as though GB could do anything about it. What will his wife say when he gets home?’

    So you see it’s all in the eye of the beholder.

  9. @Eoin

    Thank you for that. I was wondering about the online/offline differential myself.

    Is there a socio-economic breakdown for each set?

  10. Eoin Clarke – I was wondeing about tjhose figures quoted on a thread yesterday about the way ‘oldies’ vote.

    I’m probably going to be shot down quickly, but I wonder whether a partial explanation of why so many oldies seem to prefer to vote Con is partly down to longevity? It is known that life expectancy is related to a range of issues, including diet, and that there are significant differences in longevity across the UK. I think life expectancy in Glasgow is much lower than the national average.

    So, is it possible/feasible that those who might be expected to vote Con might overall live longer?( I’m not saying voting Con makes you live longer nor that voting Lab hastens death, of course!) The result would be more oldies likely to vote Con.

    I imagine that research has been done either to prove or disprove this theory.

    Any views, any one?

  11. @ John B Dick

    RE: Your post a 11:54
    Edin + NL isn’t a target for SNP – it is LD we are battling here. Only about 2000 vote majority for LAB in 2005.

    Were the German students surprised at the range of courses & the fees situation for EU v English?

    I like Glasgow – but I love Edinburgh :-)

  12. The Boss of Jewson stated on Radio4 this evening that the business leaders had been approached by the Tory party to sign the letters, no spontaneous protest then. This move has clearly influenced the polls.

  13. Eoin

    I don’t know what is the correct answer. Online polls may accurately neutralise the “shy” voter. For example, people maybe reluctant to say, BNP, to a pollster face-to-face. On the other hand, over a period of time it can be manipulated by registering your last election differently that what it actually was [ lying, basically ]

    The same can be done with face-to-face polling but I think people in general find it more difficult to lie in such situations.

    The jury is out. On 7th May we will have the answer.

  14. With the AR figures the WMA is 39:30:20 and the 2-week trend is amazingly strong, with an R2 of 0.81. Unless something major changes(and it may well) a CLead of 10-15 by the GE looks pretty solid.

    @Eoin: You have compared polls over different periods, so I’m afraid your “conclusion” is meaningless. You need to take the online and offline polls over the same period.

  15. Eoin – Look at the dates! How can you suggest anything is wrong here? The dates of the two sets do not correspond and neither do you include all pollsters (mainstream) that should be in both sets.

    Come on, at least try and question something that can be compared. :(

  16. Éoin,

    The other difference between the online and offline polls that stands out is that the online ones are on average a good deal, several days in fact, more recent.

  17. Does anyone know whether AR are still weighting to actual recalled past vote? I seem to remember a post here after AR’s methodology change that said this had also been changed, but I can’t find it.

  18. @Sue Marsh –

    I can only assume you didn’t see my earlier question to you, at around 3pm.
    Please reply if you get the chance.

    Also, I’m surprised you haven’t picked up on the highlight of PMQ’s for me.
    I didn’t see them live saw this clip on the 6 o’clock news.
    David Cameron was speaking and named a business leader, and a Labour MP must have shouted ‘he’s a tory.’
    To which Cameron replied ‘he’s not a tory, he was a government adviser……although he’s probably a tory now as are half the country.’
    Before he turned and smirked to his MP’s.

    Let’s hope we see more of the real Cameron, the arrogant, cocky and know-it-all attitude, throughout the campaign.
    Then even more people will be turned off by him.

  19. Just come in from work to stick on the news and see somebody having a massive go at Gordon Brown in the street!
    I must say, regardless of party affiliation, I hate to see that sort of thing. I have a suspicion that a lot of the time (apart from the odd really genuine case), its the two main parties dropping in ‘plants’ for this sort of thing.

  20. Mike N: Some might shoot down your post as not-PC but you do have a serious point, correct or not.

    The hypothesis is that more affluent people , generally speaking, tend to live longer because of better diet, less stressful lifestyle etc. etc. That is probably self-evident.

    Since, those people, generally speaking again, are more likely to vote Tory, the gap between the two as you go up the age groups could widen.

    It needs to be empirically tested.

  21. I make it 6 out of the last 10 polls have put Labour in the 20s.

    Looks like it’s full steam ahead for the narrative of the Tories struggling to win 40% and Labour struggling to win 30% of which Robert Waller of the Almanac of British Politics is a strong advocate.

  22. Lin Rees,

    “This move has clearly influenced the polls.”

    Which move? The business leaders supporting the Tories? Might have been a factor in the Tory lead edging 10 points more recently, but difficult to tell. The Tories coercing the business leaders to their cause? Far too early to tell.

  23. Bill Roy
    I assume the Tories want to pay down the debt with it, hoping like GB that next year they won’t have to borrow it back again to do other things with it. But, like I say, Boulton did not expand. Peston said it just amounted to an ideological difference in the end. I suppose Peston means that if the Tories handed out the savings (always assuming these van be made of course) as money in contracts to private enterprise, then that’s better than paying hospital cleaners or outreach lesbian drama club organisers. But they all buy things and pay taxes. Notice how I chose a suitable balanced description of public servants to appease our moderator’s sense of what’s fair comment. I am scarred dreadfully by the way. I just keep telling myself that the bramble is a treasure of nature.

  24. @Mitz, Bill Roy, NBeale,

    the gap persists for other sets of dates… online companies AR, Opinium, Harris and YG show higher gaps than Comres, Ispsos-Mori, ICm and TNB

  25. Mike N,

    I agree with Surbiton – there could well be a link, and in my view it would certainly bear some empirical research.

  26. However much I protest I am not being partisan no one will believe me. However, watching the re-run of PMQ Nick Robinson interviewing GB I have to say, Brown should be coached in making some sort of attempt to answer a question. His performance is like a profoundly deaf man talking to someone who is not aware of his hearing defect.
    “Good lunch in the Millpond these days” ? Answer “Oh Georgie Best, Best by name, best by talent.”

  27. Surbiton – ah yes, I should’ve said I’m an ‘oldie’ too… which of course means I don’t have to be PC, doesn’t it?

  28. The Last Fandango

    “A constitutional crisis is a distinct possibility as a result of devolution.”

    Devolution was the response to a constitutional crisis which was the mirror image of the one you describe. It provided us with a modern PR parliament fit for purpose and Donald Dewar’s vision was that it would also provide a model for the reform of Westminster.

    “Personally I think the Union is 15 years away from dissolution unless some sort of new federal type settlement can be agreed.”

    You coud be right there, and if any solution is offered it will, in the Westminster tradition, be too little and too late.

    “The inconsistencies and inequities unleashed by devolution are slowly gathering critical mass.”

    No, the inconsistencies and inequities were there before devolution and it is the perception of them by English Tories hitherto ignorant of Scottish values, geography, history, traditions, constitutional differences, and religion that are growing.

    The sole Scottish Con MP finds the task of educating his colleagues on devolved responsibilities to be burdensome. This may at least in part account for his low standing among the party leadership.

    As we drift inexorably towards the break-up of the UK, please keep in mind that while the other parties and the media contributed, you should seek an explanation in the two long periods of postwar Conservative government during which Conservatives were wiped from the map in the only part of the UK where they once had support of over 50% of the electorate.

    NewLabour’s departure from it’s traditional values to capture the votes of “Middle England” was at the cost of turning its back on Scotland, but there is no doubt that nobody has done more to further the advance of the SNP than Margaret Thatcher.

  29. @Mike N,

    My gut instinct says you have a point, difficult to measure…

    I can say that the life expectancy in the East of Glasgow is 54 but in North Glasgow it is 74…. it would be interesting to use this type of life expectancy data accross different constituencies…. I would not envy whoever wants to try that

  30. Roland
    It’s quite simple. You simply post that you’ve just heard DC rabbit on about ‘being nice to each other in the community’ or ‘happy families good’ and similar and you will even satisfy Amber. Go, try it, does you good. :-)

  31. Breaking News;

    Chairman of Wellcome Trust, Sir Bill Castell, on Board of BP and formerly a special Govt Advisor, has now just come out to fiercely attack Govt on NI.

  32. Eoin – I assume that North Glasgow is a reasonably comfortable area compared to East Glasgow, which might make it more inclined to vote Con?

    Clearly an opportuinity for research which of course I (and probably others) would be happy to undertake…if only someone would provide a grant.

  33. Eoin Clarke
    @Mike N,

    My gut instinct says you have a point, difficult to measure…

    I can say that the life expectancy in the East of Glasgow is 54 but in North Glasgow it is 74…….
    ——————

    54 ? Why such a huge difference ? High unemployment maybe, poor diet certainly, I guess.
    It’s a shame though.

  34. @Andy JS,

    Sorry I am only getting back to you….

    Older people favour BNP more than younger… Men also favour BNP more than women…

    the data from the the daily yg polls or ICM polls will show it… if you go to their homepage and select their archive

  35. It seems to me that the current situation is this;

    We have what is generally accepted as a weak Govt and weak Prime Minister, but such is the inability for the Tories to get out a really clear message to give them a big decisive lead, that big business are stepping in to do the job for them.

  36. Mike N
    Yes the reseaerch has been done and yes, poor and deprived people die earlier (in droves relatively.)..

  37. ‘@andrew holden
    I saw PMQ and laughed like a drain at Camerons joke, it was hilarious. By the way, all these people who dont like him, have you seen the leaders popularity stats. They were in YG Times on Sunday. They make your comment look very silly.

  38. Eoin – thanks for the correction. I thought I’d seen some research supporting my previous comment but obviously it wasn’t up-to-date or something. I’ll have a look at the archive you mentioned.

  39. Roland
    No your last was still not adversely critical of cameron, more ‘my hero’. You’ll have to do better than that. :-)

  40. @LIN REES
    Yes me and the boys accompanied Eric Pickles to Jewsons Head Office. I held a 9m Browning High Power to the gentlemans head whilst he signed.

  41. @Richard – yeah funny that – led on this story over news that Britain is outperforming virtually every major economy out of recession. Wonder why that was?

  42. @RolandHaines

    “By the way, all these people who dont like him, have you seen the leaders popularity stats”

    That’s why the debates will be interesting.

  43. @MIKE N – “So, is it possible/feasible that those who might be expected to vote Con might overall live longer?”

    Certainly seems that way if you take a look at the audience at their conference!!!

  44. Statto – AR are still weighting to unadjusted past vote as far as I know. In their last poll they did put an extra question prompting people with some facts about the 2005 election and asking if they were SURE they voted the way they claimed. I’m told that was just a test though, and wasn’t actually part of their weighting.

  45. Roland,

    9mm: very good point, well (and amusingly) made.

  46. Thanks Anthony. I did try posting on PB, but got no response – perhaps no one cares any more. :-)

  47. @SUE MARSH
    Thank sweet Jesu we can agree about something again. I am 63
    and the youngest in my local association. I am always required at jumble sales because I am the young fit one. Some of the older ladies think the party leader is such a serious and handsome man. Yes, Harold Macmillan was always popular with women.

  48. @roland haines

    Yes roland, but you are a true blue and therefore you might well see his comments and smirks as trying to be jokey.

    I could say your comment looks very silly also when you consider that just because people say they dislike Brown more than Cameron doesn’t mean they adore Cameron
    But I won’t because that would make me sound like Cameron – arrogant.

    I’m sure that the 60+% of the population that have doubts about Cameron or don’t like him enough to vote for him will have that view re-inforced if they see more of this side of his character in the coming weeks.

  49. AR’s Others is 15% according to me. I can accept their main figures (well, not really the Labour one) but that one is way off the rest. Apart from the somewhat exceptional Labour figure, it does not seem a cohesive whole does it? All the others have recorded around 10 except Opinium which has a similar modus operandus does it not

  50. As regards how leaders come across. There are always two angles to most character traits.

    I’ll take Blair as an example. To start with, and for the first 5 years, he was regarded as speaking sincerley. This gradually moved to righteous by the end.

    It’s very difficult for either Labout or Tories to make a call on Cameron, as history tells us that opposition leaders hold back on true colours until they are in.

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