Tuesday round up

D minus 30.
Tonight’s polls:
YouGov/Sun (5th Apr-6th Apr) CON 40%(-1), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1)

As far as I know the only new GB poll tonight is YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun. I’m sure I heard something in the BBC newspaper review about a marginals poll in the Indy, but nothing has appeared yet so if it does exist it will have to wait for tomorrow. For publication tonight most polls would have had to start their fieldwork over the bank holiday weekend and I expect most will have waited until after to start. Populus for one started the fieldwork for their new poll this morning, and we will have their first poll of the campaign tomorrow night. Ipsos MORI have a new marginals poll due out on the 8th.

YouGov’s poll doesn’t show any significant change – all the figures are within 1 point of yesterday’s poll. The lead is back in single figures, but Conservatives are still on the psychologically (but not electorally) important figure of 40%. For those who follow the methodological intricacies of polls, without the turnout weighting it would have had a 7 point lead, so the same as the Tories were on through last week with YouGov.

The Lib Dems are back down to 17% points, a low score by YouGov’s recent standards. Amongst other things, the BBC producer guidelines for the general election come into play today with the announcement of the election date, so the Lib Dems can look forward to having a higher level of coverage in the broadcast media.

Another interesting development is that after the election Parliament will not reassemble until the 18th May, 12 days after the election compared to just 6 days in 2005 – presumably agreed in order to allow extra time for horsetrading in the even of a hung Parliament (UPDATE – nope, it is to allow a longer period for desk clearing and settling in, it was decided by the Commons Modernisation Committee long before a hung Parliament looked on the cards)

414 Responses to “Tuesday round up”

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    I should concern yourself with Brown my friend.

  2. Andrew Holden.

    DC was stating a fact to those on the opposite benches. Backing of a further 32 additional high profile business leaders. I could say plenty about GB’s record when it comes to transparency with facts and figures, I will refrain from doing so on this particular site.

    As Roland said, I’d be more concerned about Brown.

  3. George,

    I agree. My only concern, and I made the point earlier, is it does feel like big business are stepping in because the Tories themselves are not connecting quite as well as they should be, facing a weak 4th term Govt.

  4. Andrew Holden

    Thank you for reminding me how much more Gordon Brown is liked than David Cameron. I had never realised.

  5. George Gardner – “DC was stating a fact to those on the opposite benches.”

    Sorry, I’d have to disagree on 2 counts.

    1. A”fact” that “half the country” are now tory ??
    2. He was turning towards and smirking at his OWN MP’s when he made the comment.

  6. Andrew Holden

    Thats a daft arguement, Brown smirks at his own benches as well, so why the big deal ?

    And if we are going to pick up statistics and debate them then I would worry about Browns statistics first…

    Did he say today he created 2.4 million new jobs inthe NHS ?

  7. SIMONK – I think you may have misread my post(s).

  8. Populus for the Times

    Con 39.3
    Lab 31.6
    LD 20.8
    Oth 8.3

  9. There has been a big decline in the number of voters expecting the Tories to win an overall majority, down to 31 per cent from 43 per cent in February and 55 per cent a year ago. By contrast, for the first time, more people expect a hung parliament with no party having a overall majority: 39 per cent, up from 33 per cent previously and just 19 per cent a year ago.

    Similarly, just 52 per cent expect the Tories to win the largest number of MPs, down from 63 per cent two months ago and 67 per cent a year ago. More than a third of voters, 35 per cent, expect Labour to win most MPs. This is higher than the number saying they will vote Labour.

    The main positive for Labour is that the number of people thinking that the economy as a whole will fare well over the next year has risen from 37 to 42 per cent since early February, compared with a low of 18 per cent in January 2009. The number thinking the economy will do badly has dropped to 52 per cent from 58 per cent two months ago, and 79 per cent in January 2009.

    Similarly, the number expecting them and their families to do well over the next year is now 54 per cent, against 41 per cent badly. This compares with a 51/45 per cent two months ago.

    This turnaround in optimism has narrowed the lead of Mr Cameron and George Osborne as most trusted on the economy. The number putting the Tory team ahead has dropped to 36 per cent, from 39 per cent in early February, and a peak of 46 per cent last December.
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  10. @GreenGrass

    Isn’t that strange – to give us decimal points?

    Tory 7.7% lead gone down by 3%

  11. AmberStar

    “Edin + NL isn’t a target for SNP”

    Quite so. It will be a good result for them if they manage to overtake the Cons leaving the Cons in fourth place. Even if that does happen, it still isn’t going to be a marginal for the SNP next time, but there could be a surprising number of constituencies that are, thanks to FPTP flipping in their favour.

  12. Times/Populus CON 39.3 (-1) LAB 31.6 (+2) LDEM 20.8 (+1)
    from twitter

  13. @Roland – I AM very concerned about Brown !

    But as Cameron is looking highly likely to be my next PM, I, and many others, need to be concerned about him also.

    All I’m saying is, despite his rehearsed line that “it is going to be very tight”, for him then to suggest, in an ad-lib way that “half the country” is now tory would suggest a little over-confidence.

    Just like if Chelsea were 8 points clear with 4 games to go, this election is the tories to lose.

    What was the name of that horse in the grand national ?

  14. AW – I can’t see any reason why my last post is awaiting moderation ?

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