D minus 30.
YouGov/Sun (5th Apr-6th Apr) CON 40%(-1), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1)
As far as I know the only new GB poll tonight is YouGov’s daily poll in the Sun. I’m sure I heard something in the BBC newspaper review about a marginals poll in the Indy, but nothing has appeared yet so if it does exist it will have to wait for tomorrow. For publication tonight most polls would have had to start their fieldwork over the bank holiday weekend and I expect most will have waited until after to start. Populus for one started the fieldwork for their new poll this morning, and we will have their first poll of the campaign tomorrow night. Ipsos MORI have a new marginals poll due out on the 8th.
YouGov’s poll doesn’t show any significant change – all the figures are within 1 point of yesterday’s poll. The lead is back in single figures, but Conservatives are still on the psychologically (but not electorally) important figure of 40%. For those who follow the methodological intricacies of polls, without the turnout weighting it would have had a 7 point lead, so the same as the Tories were on through last week with YouGov.
The Lib Dems are back down to 17% points, a low score by YouGov’s recent standards. Amongst other things, the BBC producer guidelines for the general election come into play today with the announcement of the election date, so the Lib Dems can look forward to having a higher level of coverage in the broadcast media.
Another interesting development is that after the election Parliament will not reassemble until the 18th May, 12 days after the election compared to just 6 days in 2005 – presumably agreed in order to allow extra time for horsetrading in the even of a hung Parliament (UPDATE – nope, it is to allow a longer period for desk clearing and settling in, it was decided by the Commons Modernisation Committee long before a hung Parliament looked on the cards)