Tonight’s daily poll from YouGov has topline figures of:

YouGov/Sun (5th Apr-6th Apr) CON 40%(-1), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1)

According to the BBC newspaper review there may also be a poll of marginal seats in the Independent. I haven’t seen anything else about it (John Rentoul’s blog has nothing), but I will put up a proper post summarising todays polls when I know for sure.


123 Responses to “YouGov daily figures – 40/32/17”

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  1. I probably quoted from the wrong post, Bill Roy. My apologies.

  2. @anthony ok thanks this site is bound to be pretty popular now! I’m sure you’ll be up to speed with things.

  3. I think Nick Hadley has a very good point about the Cameron factor. Although all the polls show a consistent Conservative lead, just from talking to “people in the office” (and in SW Essex which should be good territory for them) who would usually be firmly Tory after 13 years of a Labour Government, people seem distinctly underwhelmed by DC

  4. Anthony – in the past few days the popularity of this site in UK terms has risen from 2,500+ ranked to 2,318 ranked as of about 40 minutes ago. That may not seem much but let me assure you there are website owners across the UK would love a jump like that! :)

    Perhaps a pre-emptive word with your hosting company may be appropriate in my opinion.

  5. “Yes Matt I’d take that – the polls are starting to show this is becoming a possibility.

    PMQ’s will be fun tomorrow.”

    Yeah, the excitement of the election campaign starts now.

  6. Unless Gordon Brown & co have some “big clunking fist” style shot I feel their chances of winning an outright majority are pretty slim. Or else Cameron goofs up big time, or falls into some trap.

    It’s more a matter of damage limitation for Labour. At this point either Cameron will get a pointless little majority or else worse still from everyone’s (sans Labour) point of view – Conservative minority government, big enough to avoid doing outright deals with other parties, not big enough to do anything notable. I reckon we’ll be doing all this again quite soon.

  7. Nick

    I suspect Conservative Central Office did not bank at all on retaining a 16% – 20% lead. Such a large lead at that stage was fairly meaningless and was far more likely to decrease than increase further. Similarly I doubt that Labour were wholly convinced of retaining 2% – 5% leads a few weeks back.

    The Tory share of the vote – which has now moved back to around 40% is not, if I recall correctly, signficantly below what it was during the period of those hefty leads – I think they were getting up to 42% or 43% at times – but with 40% of the popular vote they are going to win.

  8. I’d hang off pronouncing the Tories on 40% just yet – amusingly, YouGov are the only pollster showing the Tories on 40%, when a couple of weeks back, YouGov were the subject of constant abusive and derisory remarks from Tories for showing Labour 4% behind.

    I wonder if ICM will be subject to such abuse if their 4% margin is maintained, rouge or otherwise.

  9. I liked the starting gun clips.

    Labour – steady as she goes, right choice for the recovery.
    Con – Hope, optimism, decent folk
    LibDem – Clean up politics, a real alternative

    Felt like a real fight.

  10. Bill – well, it wasn’t the same sort of crash that I normally get when the traffic is simply too much for things to cope (it’s normally the memory that gives out – in this instance it was MySQL). See if it re-occurs first. When we did the last upgrade we discussed what the next stages would be if we needed to ramp things up even further, so there are plans in reserve.

  11. Sue – it is the incumbant party who has a record to defend – people have experienced what has happened and the imcumbant doesn’t have a choice. Your point would mean that all other parties would have to spell out in detail their plans – but not I notice the government (mind you AD followed that principle recently as I recall) {just a little dig there}.

    Whatever party is in power is at a disadvantage, that is the nature of the public psyche. This is a non-partisan comment.

    Matt – no problem. :)

  12. Thanks Anthony. So YouGov obviously feel this weighting is more likely to accurately reflect the GE outcome?

    Kudos Bill Roy

  13. Jakobs you could well be right, but there was no shortage of Tory spokespeople here & elsewhere who were bigging up their chances of a lead as large as that in the actual general election.

  14. I think this election more than any other will be decided at local level rather than national level. That is to say the battle in the marginals. It is a big ask for the Tories to win 116 plus seats and not lose any, no matter what their national level of support is, unless it gets to significantly above 40%.

    It also depends a lot on the level of Lib Dem support (possibly boosted by Iraq in 2005), will previous Labour supporters return to the party?

    Other factors are, can Labour get it’s core vote out and will there be a high turnout? Will young people and first time voters bother, and if they do will they vote for the traditional parties?

    It would be nice to see any new polling or analysis in these areas, as I think the headline national share is slightly misleading.

  15. Labour need to get back on the front foot as they have been struggling since the budget. The tax on jobs shots have hurt. Since the budget was business neutral as there was lots of incentives and help for business, that is what labour need to focus on rather than talking about tory cuts.

  16. @Bill Roy

    “Well 2 in a row at 40% or more for the Conservatives, this confirms last nights swing as reliable.”

    Yes, I agree. I’d predict that if the Tories aren’t on 40%, they must be very close to it i.e. 39. That must be good from their perspective in that I reckon 40% would secure them a small majority.

  17. Bill Roy – The government, as I agreed must defend their record. One would certainly hope the other parties WILL spell out their plans in detail.

  18. MATT – “I think most Labour supporters, if they’re being honest, would admit that they’d be delighted to take a hung parliament with Labour being the largest party – and rightly so IMO.”

    Yes, I think I would definitely take that at this moment in time.
    And I’d probably be quite happy with a hung parliament in which the tories had less than 300 seats.

    In 1 month’s time to the minute, we should have a pretty good idea !

  19. As a Tory voter at this election, overall I am pretty pleased with how the polls are on the first day of the election. I believe the Tory’s chances of securing a majority are currently much higher than they were, say, a week or 2 ago. Having said that, I still think it’s all to play for. Can’t wait for the excitement of election night. Sounds sad I know!

  20. Sue, it isn’t enough for Labour just to defend their record. They must also detail their plans for the future, especially on the economy. It’s no good demanding details from the Tories & LibDems if Labour are not prepared to give the same amount of detail themselves.

    I don’t think Labour can make much progress defending their record anyway.

  21. “Yes, I think I would definitely take that at this moment in time.
    And I’d probably be quite happy with a hung parliament in which the tories had less than 300 seats.”

    Yes, I think Labour’s job in the next month is one of containment. If the Tories don’t have an outright majority, power could swing back to Labour shortly thereafter.

  22. Nothing sad about that Matt. It does look at this stage to be a potentially exciting election.

  23. “Sue, it isn’t enough for Labour just to defend their record. They must also detail their plans for the future, especially on the economy. It’s no good demanding details from the Tories & LibDems if Labour are not prepared to give the same amount of detail themselves.

    I don’t think Labour can make much progress defending their record anyway.”

    I think we’ll see all 3 main parties omitting some detail in their pre-election pledges. I can’t see any of the main parties detailing where all the spending cuts/tax rises will occur before the GE.

  24. Can I ask… If this site claims to be “independent survey and polling news”, why is there a banner advert for the conservative party at the top of the page?… (screen shot available)

  25. I’ve been disenfranchised. I want to vote for a local person who may be a member of a party but occasionally votes on conscience.

    The incumbent Labour MP has never even abstained in a vote, and the Tory candidate (who are the only realistic challenger) has been parachuted in from another part of the country.

    No wonder people don’t bother voting. I will, but I don’t know who for yet. It won’t be Lab or Con.

  26. I’m with Sue. Lead cut by 2 on day1.

    Lab % up by 3 in a week
    Clear momentum!

  27. I never miss an election night in the Uk as well as the US and Australia. Add me to the sad list.

  28. Matt, my point is that Labour can’t accuse the others of lack of detail (how are they going to pay for this or that etc.) if they won’t give much detail themselves.

  29. Euan – For the same reason there has been an ad for the Liberal Democrats at the bottom of posts for much of day: they paid the ad agency that provides my adverts that cover the cost of the hosting.

  30. Derek Pierson – My point was in the partisan nature of the comment, though I agree totally, that the party that gives the most credible detail in it’s plans deserves to win.

    By concluding that “I don’t think Labour can make much progress defending their record anyway.”, you were equally partisan.

  31. “Matt, my point is that Labour can’t accuse the others of lack of detail (how are they going to pay for this or that etc.) if they won’t give much detail themselves.”

    I agree.

  32. Sue, I wasn’t being partisan, just reflecting what seems to be the consensus. Even though I’m not going to vote for Brown, I think he did a reasonable job of dealing with the crisis once we were in it.

  33. @PercyH

    The problem the non Tories have is in my opinon this.

    The Tories seem to be firming up at a figure of 39% or more.

    Labour and the Lib/Dems seem to be swapping 3%

    Providing the Tories remain at 39%+ and gain a benefit from the maginals they win a small majority regardless as to what the 3% Lab/Lib swingers (no pun intended) do.

  34. Tee Hee, (haven’t risked a tee hee for ages) I might start producing a Bill Roy style table of what the figures would have been under the old YouGov weighting.

    Tonight (I’m no mathematician mind!)
    Con 39
    Lab 32
    Lib Dem 17

  35. Derek Pierson – Reflecting your sense of the “consensus”.
    Mine is very different.

  36. Thanks Sue

    The figure is getting closer to ICM’s 4% ;-)

  37. Anthony – it’s true that various parties pay for intrusive advertising, i’ve seen them on other sites that aren’t politics-related. It’s a shame hosting comes at the cost of impartiality on an independent site though.

  38. Euan

    It’s difficult to imagine any greater a waste of money than paying for political advertising on a politics website!

    Just how many undecided lurkers do they think there are?

  39. 39/40 is a good position for the Conservatives to be in, if the post budget swing they enjoyed holds out and they can continually drive home the message on the horrific potential of Labour’s job tax, I’m sure they can stay at 40+.

    The range value for the Tory% is smaller than that of Lab/LD’s, showing the Conservative vote is firming up but LD/Lab may have support bouncing between the two. The leader’s debates may benifit the LD share.

  40. Is it possible that weighting by past vote might under represent Labour this time? Many Labour voters switched to Lib Dem last time but may well come back to Labour and would give their party ID as Labour.

  41. Sue, I must say I thought it was a given that Labour & especially Brown are unpopular based on their record, but they’re still in with a fighting chance because the electorate are unconvinced by Cameron & the Tories. And the LibDems aren’t different enough to cause a significant swing in their direction.

    Each of those 3 parties needs to tackle those perceptions: Labour by emphasising their success in creating the recovery & pointing out the Tories’ flaws; the Tories need to present themselves as competent & aware of ordinary people’s problems; the LibDems need noticeably different policies.

  42. Is there any news on the (hopefull) economic recovery scheduled for realease between now and polling day? Changes in unemployment, GDP performance figures, etc etc?

  43. Please can we moderate out all this psuedo political rubbish and talk about opinion polls? There are plenty of other places for the likes of Craig U to vent.

  44. Craig U – have you read the comments policy? Your post above isn’t “the truth” – it’s highly subjective. Go and attack the Labour Party elsewhere. This site is meant to be non-partisan!
    How would you like it if I listed all the things Margaret Thatcher/John Major etc did which I disagreed with? You wouldn’t would you. Keep it non-partisan or I will press for sanctions to be taken against you, because you are a repeat offender.

  45. Imagine if Labour are returned to governmeent with roughly the same majority as they have now…

    Wouldn’t that be ironic, don’t you think?

  46. Oldnat

    That’s very true – most of the visitors to this site have already decided what party they’re voting for! So s’pose most people ignore them here anyway…

    I’m still amazed at the amount of money that the parties put into what’s essentially just a very large photocopying bill – think it’s £34 mill per party? Impressive it’s still possible when everyone’s so strapped for money!

    And Craig U – “UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.” right above the comments box…

  47. @ George G

    I agree exactly my point.

    There is also another factor that I keep repeating.

    There will I believe be another 1% + for the Tories from UKIP who will vote conservative on the day with heavy hearts because they hate Euroland more than they dislike the Tories.

    Labour on the other hand will get no such benefit from BNP voters returning home because they just hate everybody.

  48. @Anthony

    Please could you have a look at Craig U’s post at 11.31pm.

    Thanks

  49. I think the greatest problem will be getting the average voter to believe what the politicians are saying after the expenses scandal and the general feeling that some MPs are pretty unsavoury. Very few people indeed actually ever get to meet their MP (quite a lot don’t knowwho he/she is) and their cynicism is often reinforced by the media.

    I suspect the polls are going to gyrate quite a bit over the next couple of weeks until, hopefully for our democracy, the politicians manage to establish bit of trust. I think evasiveness will be punished and in this context the debates are going to be key.

  50. Does everybody think that the tories will maintain their high 30’s position? Only a couple of weeks ago they were polling around 37, I just have a feeling that there will be a gamechanger in the next 4 weeks to swing this decisively one way or another.

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