Tonight’s daily poll from YouGov has topline figures of:

YouGov/Sun (5th Apr-6th Apr) CON 40%(-1), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1)

According to the BBC newspaper review there may also be a poll of marginal seats in the Independent. I haven’t seen anything else about it (John Rentoul’s blog has nothing), but I will put up a proper post summarising todays polls when I know for sure.

123 Responses to “YouGov daily figures – 40/32/17”

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  1. It seems my EricPickles/Blue Nation Bloh Twitter drum was within Margin of Error:

    Day 1 – Reg Rag strikes gold

  2. Cable effect wearing off…

  3. I am a little bit glad people were reporting rumours of “lead slashed in half”. Makes me feel better about this very modest drop.

  4. Something of a relief for us Marxist claptrap-merchants in the Labour Party. :) Labour is still in this contest but clearly more progress will be needed. Probably JUST ABOUT hung parliament territory even allowing for differential marginal swing.

  5. Maybe about average….still around 8-9% overall I’d say..?

  6. Between now and the election, as the polls start coming in thick and fast, can we have a Polling Figures graph that is for 2010 only (or even Spring 2010 onwards).
    The current graph is already getting hard to read, with all the results on top of each other.

  7. Within MOE of yesterday, it seems to me, more evidence that the ICM poll was a bit of a weird one.

  8. A mixed poll for Labour and the Tories.

    1) The Tories yet again hit the 40%.
    2) Labour have narrowed the gap to 8%.

  9. Another poor show for the lib dems, another good number for the conservatives. Labour arn’t doing too bad by recent form either.

    If the LibDem boost was from the Chancelor’s debate then either they have very poor memories or are too easily swayed. Each way, it has got to be a worry for them. They may get a boost from each of the leader’s debates but as the last one is a week before polling day, voters may just forget.

  10. Apparantly there will be a Ipsos-Mori Marginals for Reuters on the 8th

  11. The important thing here is not so much the “narrowing” which is well within MOE but the fact that the conservatives are still just above 40% for the second time. If this holds then factoring in marginal effects the tories should be able to clinge to a mini majority so long as labour dont exceed 33%. Which is unlikely because there polling is consistently within the 29-31% range. I also feel the lib dem bounce is shrinking, but will probably bounce back after more exposure of the cable factor.

  12. Brown got a HUGE amount of TV coverage today, including that Press Conference in front of No 10

    The fact that that has hardly helped him says a lot

  13. Tim Bentley – someone else asked me the same question the other day (and if he’s reading, I know I owe you a reply!) – yes, I quite agree and I’ll try to get it done.

  14. Day 1 – Labour narrow the gap by two.

  15. Dan, Dan, Dan.
    The coverage has to be equal now, and as far as I could see it was. (Didn’t think the LibDems were handle very squarely though.) Today’s events happened after midday and won’t show in the polls til tomorrow.

  16. I think statements about the end of the Cable bounce are a bit premature, if based on one poll. LibDem support has recently been trending up & it will need more than one poll to show that’s been reversed. I feel some posters (like the press) read too much into an individual poll.

  17. Looks like the conservatives are breaking into the all important 40’s, on just though!It would also appear that the Lib Dems need some new material, I think that people may be getting a bit bored of the “Vince Cable was the only one to warn about the debt” rhetoric.

  18. Well 2 in a row at 40% or more for the Conservatives, this confirms last nights swing as reliable.

    LibDems are heading nowhere fast, just perhaps I overestimated them, and I have grave doubts about the Leaders debates being particularly helpful for them. This could be showing that perhaps some of their seats are not as safe as some people thought they were.

    Labour are hold at low 30’s, that is quite good for them on recent form. The problem of course is that they have now to defend their record on all kinds of subjects that they really would rather not talk about.

    I think the election is starting with Conservatives 8% -10% in the lead.

  19. @Dan – your kidding right – he’s the PM calling the election – of course he’s going to get coverage. I was listening to BBC radio and they led with Cameron’s speech before going onto Brown’s – now that was weird!

  20. Bill Roy –

    Labour must defend their record
    The Tories must explain their alternative
    The LibDems must carve a niche.

    That is non-partisan

  21. Is this a trend of Tories at min 40? Most encouraging for Cameron, got to be worrying for Brown though.

  22. Tomorrows poll should be more interesting as it will be the first full day of polling after the election announcement and people have had a chance to take it all in. I think by the end of this week we will be back to pre budget figures, with the Libs doing better and a 4 point gap between Labour and the Conservatives, I think this poll shows that process beginning to start.

  23. I think the lead is around 8% myself – maybe just enough for a majority of 1-5 seats, especially with the Tories maybe on 40%, hard to tell.

  24. Sue Marsh

    “The coverage has to be equal now”

    No it doesn’t, not until parliament is dissolved.

  25. People will know I am not over-fond of the press.
    Headline in Times
    ‘Sterling falls amid fears over hung parliament’.

    In fact sterling is up against dollar and euro .

    Does anyone on here take seriously anything these clowns say? (this is the ‘Economics’ page of the Times by the way – not the fashion or sport).

    No significant changes in YouGov poll (yet).

  26. @ Dan

    And lets not forget the staged visit in the afternoon, whilst Cameron only got the briefest coverage of his outdoor speech on the South Bank of the Thames.

  27. “Bill Roy –

    Labour must defend their record
    The Tories must explain their alternative
    The LibDems must carve a niche.

    That is non-partisan”

    To be fair, I’m inclined to side with Sue on this one – GB certainly didn’t have any more coverage than DC on the news coverage I watched!

  28. The Tory lead has narrowed by 2%. Labour will be pleased it has reduced rather than grown & ICM’s 4% Tory lead is close enough to be within MoE instead of a rogue.
    Could we be seeing another trend toward Labour?

  29. AW – Am I right in saying that without the methodology change of yesterday it would have been Tory 39? Or is it Lab 31? I’ve got totally confused.
    (Not questioning today’s, just wanted to compare with before?)

  30. Kept gettting database error but seems ok now! Not much change over last few days but a bit worrying for the Lib Dems to have slipped from 20% at the weekend, though of course some of it could be sampling error. Don’t think YouGov picked up much of a boost from the Chancellor’s debate mind you and the Liberal Democrats should pick up a bit again shortly as there are still many who don’t care much for the big two, even if there may some polarisation at times.

  31. Sue, polls always twitch towards the incumbents upon the big announcement.

  32. @ SUE MARSH

    2 forward & 1 back is how it will go – but we’ll get there in the end ;-)

  33. @ AL J

    I am really looking forward to voting now!!! I’m quite excited about it :-)

  34. @Amber Star

    Do you mean the Opposition benches?

  35. Howard – I am still totally shocked by what you said about the VC story yesterday. I think you should do a daily blog on the worst press lie of the day.
    I would put it on my Facebook page, I am frightened by it.

    Also, I’m finding it very interesting to hear people say DC got unfair coverage. It has been a VERY uncomfortable situation to be watching the news as a Lab supporter lately, but tonight was the first night for months I have felt it was actually NEWS, reported as it happened, fairly to all sides.
    I wonder if Tories have got so used to dreadful press for GB, they won’t like equality at all?

  36. Sue,

    Non-partisan – yes. In an ideal world – yes. Unfortunately, the most difficult thing for Labour is to buck the trend. Ultimately, there is a swing back to the opposition at some point in time or another irrespective of government records or opposition alternatives. Sad perhaps, but I think that point in time has come and those undecided may go with the side they perceive to be the winner and the deed is done.

  37. George Gardner – but surely we won’t see that until tomorrow?

  38. Sue Marsh – it would have been Conservative 39. While it isn’t written in stone that the effect is to increase the Conservative score by one, in almost every test we’ve run over the past few weeks that’s what it did.

    James – the website crashed, the first time for several months since my hosts did a big overhaul and pumped up the memory on the server. Not a shock considering page visits has hit 130,000 today, with 50,000 unique users. If it is connected to that, and wasn’t just one of those things, and it happens again I’ll have to get my hosts to look at a further upgrade to cope with the traffic.

  39. @Amber

    I feel positive tonight, and look forward to it too ;-)

    My little election night party is already arranged and all I have to do now is order lots of Red helium balloons! ;-)

  40. Cameron actually got in first with his speech which was played in its entirely on Five Live. The leaders got roughly equal time on the news & on Newsnight. If we are to think Labour is narrowing the gap, more evidence will be needed and tomorrow’s poll/polls will be awaited with great interest.

  41. 130,000 hits – wow!

  42. Interesting one and suggesting that yesterday’s 10% Tory lead in YouGov was a bit of an outlier. With MOE allowances for both yesterday’s ICM and today’s YouGov, you could make a case for a Tory lead of about 6%. I’m intrigued, however, by the continuing low % share for the Lib Dems and this doesn’t chime with my instinctive feel for what’s going on out there. Traditionally, they’ve always polled between 4% and 6% more in actual elections than predicted by the preceding opinion polls, but 17% feels awfully on the low side to me. I mean, in the current political climate, with political winds blowing heavily in the favour of a third party, are we saying that they’re on course to poll 5 or 6% less than in the 2005 GE? That’s not credible is it?

    As for the Tory lead, and at the risk of incurring the great Fergie’s wrath by misquoting him, it’s squeaky bum time now, isn’t it? An election that was in the bag on a landslide scale only 6 to 9 months ago, now looks decidedly precarious. It was always theirs to lose, and I can only wonder at the perplexed faces in Central Office wondering where the hell those once consistent 16-20% poll leads have now disappeared to in such a short time. And that brings me to this strange feeling I have about the nature of their problem. Could it just be that David Cameron, once running well ahead of his party in terms of popularity, might now be becoming a bit of a drag on their fortunes. Would they have been doing better by now with a David Davis or a William Hague, or even a Ken Clarke as leader? I’m sensing a fizzling out of Cameron’s appeal and, as I often say in my hackneyed way, if I was that fictional Labour strategist, wouldn’t I now be thinking that a surprisingly vulnerable target was slowly looming in the sights of my well loaded political rifle? I have a funny feeling that the Bullingdon Club, Eton and Lord Ashcroft might have a bit more mileage left in the tank.

    An interesting campaign beckons.

  43. @Barnaby………………..You’re not going to let me forget my, ‘Marxist claptrap’, slip, are you ! I’ll let you into a secret, I visited Karl’s grave last week, he looked very stern. :-)

  44. For those wondering if this could go the same way as 1992 I have looked at some data from the 20 polls immediately after that election was called.

    Labour was on average 1.8 points ahead in the polls, although a quarter of the polls showed the Tories in the lead, the largest being 3 points.

    The result was seen as the most extreme swing away from the opnion polls on record so I would be very surprised if Labour won the election this year, although in theory anything is possible.

  45. I thought it interesting as i watched the news in the northwest, london and the south at how many people did not seem to want to vote for anyone. Can we expect a record low turnout and how will this affect the outcome?

  46. “The result was seen as the most extreme swing away from the opnion polls on record so I would be very surprised if Labour won the election this year, although in theory anything is possible.”

    I think most Labour supporters, if they’re being honest, would admit that they’d be delighted to take a hung parliament with Labour being the largest party – and rightly so IMO.

  47. Sue – It is the incumbant government that has to defend its record, no matter what party that government is.

    Matt – I never mentioned anything about coverage, you have me puzzled?

  48. Yes Matt I’d take that – the polls are starting to show this is becoming a possibility.

    PMQ’s will be fun tomorrow.

  49. “Matt – I never mentioned anything about coverage, you have me puzzled?”

    Yeah, sorry, I quoted something Sue said and that post had your name at the top.

  50. Bill Roy, I was trying to be tactful.

    You said : “The problem of course is that they have now to defend their record on all kinds of subjects that they really would rather not talk about.”

    Unless you also mention that “DC must now defend his policy detail, something I’m sure he really would rather not talk about” you sound terribly partisan.

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