Tonight’s daily poll from YouGov has topline figures of:

YouGov/Sun (5th Apr-6th Apr) CON 40%(-1), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1)

According to the BBC newspaper review there may also be a poll of marginal seats in the Independent. I haven’t seen anything else about it (John Rentoul’s blog has nothing), but I will put up a proper post summarising todays polls when I know for sure.


123 Responses to “YouGov daily figures – 40/32/17”

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  1. AW – pages – brilliant! This will cut down the loading time. Thank you. :)

  2. @AL J
    “My little election night party is already arranged and all I have to do now is order lots of Red helium balloons! ”

    At least we are no longer allowing partisan comments not related to the opinion polls. D’Oh!

    Speaking of opinion polls am I right in thinking that the current Tory lead in the polls (call it say 8-9%, disregarding what must be a rogue ICM poll) is the highest of any opposition party in recent times on the day the GE was called?

    Can we read anything then into historical polls i.e. how the voting intentions moved between call of the election and polling day?

  3. The Conservatives are gonna really struggle to stay above 40 and on election night probably won’t manage it.

  4. Jack clearly that is correct yes. Obviously you have to go back to 1997 to beat it, since the opposition hasn’t been ahead at all in 2001 or 2005 during the election campaign.

  5. @Jack Jones

    Yes having a party is soooo partisan!!! D’oh

  6. @craigu
    please refrain
    AW-are you modded out for the day ;-)

    agree with earlier posts, if Tories are hardening at 40% then it is a long slog for brown and co. Labour cannot hide gb for a month so the lab vote is not likely to improve much if we believe the “view” that labour’s brand stays reasonably credible but gb taints it even in the eyes of party activists and indeed his mp’s and cabinet

  7. @Jack – in 1997 Blair enjoyed leads double this.

  8. Bill Roy (and anyone else) let me know if you experience any problems with it. It should reduce the server load when the threads get really big (it struck me that half the problem earlier this evening was probably people reloading that monster 528 comment thread).

  9. Oldnat – Shhh!!! Don’t tell them ;)

  10. Anthony

    Pages are good – but when I refreshed, I thought there was a site problem, as all I saw was white, until I scrolled up to the top.

  11. AW – that makes sense about thepossible cause of the problem earlier. Let’s hope this fixes it. :)

  12. @Anthony

    You mentioned some polling in the marginals – The Sky News paper review mentioned the FT for some polling in 50 Tory target seats, but didn’t mention any %’s.

  13. @alextheweb

    The Conservatives are gonna really struggle to stay above 40 and on election night probably won’t manage it.

    ___________________________________________

    Might I ask the basis and evidence of this opinion please?

  14. @Amber

    “Imagine if Labour are returned to governmeent with roughly the same majority as they have now…”

    —-

    John Lennon did it first :-)

  15. Cant we have one of those scrolling comments boxes. So you dont need to refresh, I dont know the proper term.

  16. Al J – could be that. On the BBC they mentioned it just as they were putting down the Indy and about to pick up the FT, so perhaps it’s there.

  17. Epochery – dunno what it’s called, but it sounds like something that would be hell for the server, so no! :)

  18. Looking back at some of the polls in 1992 and 1997 on both campaigns throughout the pollsters were wildly out on the shares predicted versus what actually happened.

    Even the eve of poll polls overstated Labour by about 3% and understated the Tories by 3+%, and underestimated the share for others.

    Are today’s pollsters confident that they have now got this about right, and that their weighting is so much better than it used to be, or have they still not got their heads around the “hidden Tories” when they poll?

  19. I’ve checked the FT. What they’ve done isn’t an opinion poll in the marginals, its an economic assessment. They’ve found that the marginals have a much larger increase in unemployment than average. No mention of any voting intention (or indeed any other kind of question) in their article.

  20. NEWSNIGHT THE THREE X SPIN-DOCTORS ALL FELT THERE WOULD BE A SMALL MAJ FOR TORYS ON ELECTION NIGHT. AS I DO,SO FOR ME ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS WILL BE AN ANTI- CLIMAX. JUST LIKE 1992.

  21. A couple of passing thoughts….

    I’d love to see the pollsters publish predicted turnout figures. in the last half century there has been a pretty solid correlation between closeness of result and turnout (peak in 1992, trough in 2001). My gut feel is that this trend will be blown apart this time, and the turnout will be low for a close race (maybe 1997 levels, though still higher than 2001/2005). I’d like some empirical backing for this, though (or emipirical refutation). The primary reason for my feeling is the disappearance of ideology: many people will think: “you can’t put a fag-paper between all three parties, and all are corrupt anyway, so why bother”.

    Conversely, one area where I think long-term trends will indeed be maintained concerns the Lib Dem vote. [Declaration of interest time: though never a member or activist, I’ve voted Lib or LibDem every election since Feb 74, with the exception of 79 (Lab) and 83 (Green).] In tight elections the 3rd prty is squeezed, and whilst I’ll vote for them I’m sure it will happen again. This was rubbished when I aired it a few days ago, but the trend in the polls supports this view, and I suspect the trend will continue. May 6th alone will prove me right or wrong.

  22. Thanks for the pages, Anthony. Scrolling down 400 posts on my iPhone was becoming annoying!

    As for the poll – not a lot to see. Looks like the Tories have reached 40%. Tonight’s polls will be far more interesting.

  23. Steve Coberman,

    You can find analysis of turnout figures from previous years in a House of Commons Library paper (04/61) analysing elections from 1918-2001 (there is a later update paper – 05/33 – for the 2005 GE).

    The data in this chart suggests that there is no obvious correlation between turnout and result – or expected closeness of result. Overall, turnout peaked at just under 84% in 1950, and has been on a declining trend ever since. The path has not been even, with turnout picking up in Feb 1974 (but not Oct 74), 1979, and again in 1992.

    While turnout in 1945 was a meagre 72.8%, remember that this was at a time when the roll probably contained over a million deceased voters while many more were still stationed away from home. (Those serving overseas were probably better able to vote than those dislocated within the UK – not to mention civilians who had sought refuge in the colonies for their safety.)

    Leaving aside the appallingly low turnouts in 2001 and 2005, 1997 was the lowest turnout since before the war (WWII that is), and the next lowest was in 1970 when Wilson unexpectedly lost to Heath.

    As for 3rd party squeeze – 1964 and 1974 both disprove this, while the lowest vote for Liberals was in 1955, when Eden had a comfortable victory.

    What conclusions can we draw for likely turnout this year ? Precisely none !

    FWIW – my view is that we will see increased turnout, possibly as high as 75%. This will be especially true in England. However, thanks to the expenses scandals and general disillusionment with politicians, we will also see a record vote for minor parties, with combined vote for BNP / Green / UKIP being in double figures. (Helped by these three parties fielding record number of candidates.)

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