YouGov’s poll in the Sun today has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 31%, LDEM 18%, so little change in the Conservative lead as we head towards the election.

This poll has a significant methodological change, albeit one which has made hardly any difference to the topline figures. Unlike nearly all of the other pollsters YouGov do not normally take into account likelihood to vote in their topline figures – based I believe on the theory that away from elections polls are snapshots, rather than predictions.

In 2005 in YouGov’s final pre-election poll they did factor in likelihood to vote, which decreased the Labour lead slightly and made YouGov’s final prediction more accurate. At this election YouGov have decided to factor it in from the start of the campaign, so on the assumption that Brown will call the election tomorrow, they are now in election mode and the figures are weighted by likelihood to vote in the same way that Populus do.

This actually makes very little difference to the figures. Without weighting by likelihood to vote the figures would have been CON 40%(+1), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 18%(-2), so all the likelihood weighting did was push up the Conservatives by one point (which, I should add is pretty typical of the testing we’ve done over the last month. It’s never made more than 1 point difference).

Methodological discussion aside, YouGov’s poll shows Labour rising at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, though obviously the lead has a rather greater contrast! Given the normal doubts about polls over bank holidays, I think the chances are that YouGov or ICM have got a strange bank holiday sample (Opinium don’t have any political weighting, so are likely to be a bit erratic anyway).

With recent polls coming together somewhat around a Conservative lead of around 10 points or just below, it’s probably better to be sceptical of the ICM poll until and unless other pollsters show a similar narrowing of the lead. I expect we’ll have no shortage of polling over the next few days to enlighten us.


528 Responses to “YouGov show 10 point Conservative lead”

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  1. Now that the election has FINALLY been called, I must now eat my words. I previously said that Brown will hold the election on 3rd June. Prediction?
    Conservative Victory.

  2. The BBC Sunday politics show has stationed a reporting team in Stourbridge WM. They have profiled some likely families as typical etc, and are following them during the election. I think they started last September, but having only seen one report I could be wrong. However, during the programme they had their, ‘typical’ family gathered around the kitchen table, working mum and dad, kids just left school looking for work, own home etc. I was dumbstruck that the kids, when asked about voting, both said they wouldn’t, they seemed exactly the types who would.
    When asked why they would refrain from voting, in all seriousness, the answer given was that the B*P had no candidates standing.
    Drilling down a bit, the reporters found two main reasons, lack of jobs, and immigration.
    The kids also reported that most of their friends felt the same.
    Sue, get over to Stourbridge, your public awaits. :-)

  3. @Eoin,

    I am a single father also. I have joint custody of my daughter straight down the line. Last couple of years have been hard for various reasons, but nothing to do with the Govt in this instance.

    rich

  4. EOIN – There, there. It is hard, but we must resist. I can only hope they shout their message loud and proud wherever they get a chance. Give them a voice! Let them tell the world what they believe.

    Labour or the Lib Dems will achieve a landslide.

  5. @Sue M

    1. Since when have my daughters friends have been my kids?

    2. I am not Tory, I vote UKIP.

  6. My 20 yr-old son says he and most of his friends agree with Obama that DC is a lightweight

  7. @ Eoin & Sue

    I know it’s hard to ignore – Like an itchy ‘elbow’. But Anthony just mods it later & any responses get modded too. It goes on your count for pre-mod & I’d hate to lose either of you to the naughty step :-(

  8. MY kids will vote tory also Sue Marsh

  9. Incidentally, Stourbridge is 25th on the Tory hit list, probably turning Blue from Red on election day. :-)

  10. For what it is worth the types of views expressed, I do not think dominate one party. They transcend party politics. In fact, I am not even sure the character ever stated a political allegiance.

    I see that the comments have been removed so I am happy now. But having seen the rants last night and stayed silent it was hard to tolerate them two days running….

  11. Good for you Adam!! Mine are 5 and 2 sadly.
    John Fletcher – My mistake, but good, don’t hold your nose and vote Tory will you? ;)

  12. Balance re-dress here:

    My son campaigns for Labour. He & literally hundreds of young people that he ‘influences’ will vote Labour – or LD for tactical reasons.

    Does anybody want to raise the stakes? :-) :-)

  13. @Sue

    Sticking to my principles is easy . The Tories have a 7000 majority in my constituency. LOL

  14. @ GREEN GRASS

    You should be proud of your son, 20 is quite young to be following US politics & making sound judgements based on it :-)

  15. Many young people are just not bothered. I have tried to discuss politics time and again with my daughter, but I can see there is no real interest there.

    Mind you, she is only three and a half.

  16. All my 17 kids by me 4 mrs’s will vote Labour. That bitch Thatcher stopped me bad back money and made me get a job.
    Me kids never forgive her.

  17. My 18-year-old son isn’t only going to vote Labour, he’s persuaded his girlfriend (in a Labour marginal) to do the same, and is standing in the local elections too. So there.

  18. John Fletcher – Tory maj 9,300 here :(

  19. Well Amber. I have very little tolerence for governments that stay beyond two terms. I will not be voting Labour as I am point blank fed up with them. The last time I voted Labour was 1997. My vote will go to the most Anti EU candidate but I will not be voting UKIP. Any guesses? You will get a gold badge if you guess correctly.

  20. Guys your ancedotes ignore the facts…

    Since polling has begun, the youth have always favoured Labour and Liberals over Tory….

    The point where I was wrong and Matt was correct was the % of youth which we can expect to turn out… I have no evidence of substance bar 1918 election that large numbers of them can shape a result. in the manner I have suggested…

    Sinn Féin won 73 seats in teh December 1918 election. Locally, there were reports that they carried their parents to the polling booths and even threatened their parents with violence if they did not give up the bourgeois party…. tenuous evidence I know…

    Sorry Matt :)

  21. @ SUE

    RE: Mine are 5 & 2 “sadly”

    You win – wanting your kids to grow up fast so they can vote is awesome…… ;-)

  22. John Fletcher I think if I could read all the parties manifestos without knowing who they were written by and then voted for a manifeto with an unbiased oppinion I would def vote for UKIP but I have to vote Tory this time to make shore Labour do not get back in. However the following election may be completely different by then as I am expecting the Euro to collapse after greece, and portugal defualt and have to leave the euro shortly. So I think UKIP voters will have a massive part to play in this election and could sway things one way or the other. Most UKIP voters are ex tory’s and it depends if they would prefer labour or the Tory’s to be in power and vote tactically?

  23. @richard,

    that is endearing … my son quote’s engels at length (tongue in cheek) :)

  24. Richard O – Lol
    Roland – I’ve been going right off you lately

  25. My wife will vote Labour despite years of indoctrination by parents who make Maggie seem abit of a lefty. Her brother will vote Labour or LD depending who appears to make the most inroads in his area. The tide isn’t all to the milk snatching Tories.

  26. I must say my son did make the 6 oclock news for a solitary Anti-Bush protest in his last ever visit to Northern Ireland….

    2008-april i think

    He picketed a school were Bush was giving a speech before the local constabulary decided he was a threat- seriously!

  27. AW
    hold the front page.

    UKPR contributors are holding snap polls around teh country and results are 100% support for one party but, amazingly, these results vary by huge swings from one place to another.

  28. Amber – Maybe not “sadly, they’re very cute. I wish I could tell you what my 5 year old says when DC comes on the telly, but sadly AW would cull me!!

  29. @ KYLE

    You now have me racking my brains – I hope it’s not anybody obvious or was the gold badge thing a joke?

  30. @ AMBER

    “Does anybody want to raise the stakes? ”

    Yes-OK then.

    My daughter-two young children-married-divorced-single disabled mum.
    Hated Thatcher. Massive social conscience. Left as they come.

    Hates Brown-is going to vote for Cameron ( I still cannot quite believe it ).
    Her teenage daughter-as big a rebel as her mother thinks Cameron is “nice”.

    Love all-your serve ;-)

  31. @Eoin

    In my experiece younger people tend to be against the establishment. and to the 18 -25 year old voters Labour are the establishment. They are the only government they have been aware of.

    I am not saying polling does not show that a majority of younger voters will not be polled saying they favour Labour, but I speculate that the effect may be less than anticipated in this election because of the time Labour have been in power.

    Thank you for your comments about Northern Irleand, I was away for a bit and have only just caught up.

  32. Amber think back to the 1990s. The party that blew a gasket over Europe and still has very faint scars.

  33. @True Blue

    “To put it into context the studies show that a massive 8 out of 10 (13.4 million) of over 55s said they would definitely vote in the General Election compared to less than one in two 18-24 year olds (2.5 million).”

    Of course, this is the Tory supporting, always-voting grey tidal wave that delivered massive majorities for the Tories in 1997, 2001 and 2005, isn’t it? And they obviously came out in their usual reliable force to guarantee respective turn-outs of 71%, 59% and 61% in those self same elections. More ludicrous myths peddled to fit self -serving partisan theories. And, as for John Fletcher and his daughter’s Facebook hypothesis; is there no limit to the depths of banality that some people sink to on here??

    Anthony, I make a final appeal. I was led to believe that this was an independent website dedicated to the non-partisan discussion of opinion polling. I’m prepared to tolerate the obvious preponderence of Tories on here, as long as they’re sensible, and maybe their pre-ponderence has something to do with the regularly streamed Tory adds on the website, but for the sake of intellectually interesting political debate, you need to take a far more hands-on moderating role. This comments page is starting to resemble the Dail Mail’s letters column, and , quite frankly, I can’t think of a more damning indictment!

  34. THIS FEEL LIKE 1992.
    After reading the Daily Mail everyday I feel ashamed to be a Labour Voter!
    MORE POLLS TONIGHT?

  35. [snipped – Surbiton, if I moderate the orginal comment (which I intended to do, if it’s still there I will do so now) then I moderate replies to it too – AW]

  36. @Sue……….I’ve been to a few Countryside Alliance fund raisers in your neck of the woods. I must admire you, even though you are on an exercise in futility, you must be drowning in a sea of Blue down there.
    ‘I wandered lonely as a cloud…………! :-)

  37. @ COLIN

    Fair enough – I hope your daughter is voting policies not personalities. Then I could not argue with her. I never argue with people who have good reasons for their decision.

  38. Has Angela Merkel come out and supported Brown or something?

    I am fully prepared for quite a bit of Euro leader backing for Brown. Firstly he was part of the overall EU pressure group that got the poll re-run in Ireland, and also pulled the Czechs in. Secondly, he also reneged on the 2005 manifesto pledge to give a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty (or its forerunner). Both these played very well with the Europeans, so they probably owe him a favour.

    I also suspect they are rather nervous of Cameron, despite the pledge by him not ro re-explore the legal basis of the Lisbon treaty.

  39. Ken
    do you meet Glen Otto at these CA shindigs? if so it must be a fleeting moment as he whizzes around the home counties converting everyone (I mean everyone) to vote blue. :-)

  40. @Amber……………..You do it all the time ! :-)

  41. @Adam

    I would def vote for UKIP but I have to vote Tory this time to make shore Labour do not get back in.

    _________________________________________

    I have been doing quite a lot of telephone canvassing and what you are typical of the responses. I am absolutely sure that a lot of UKIP supporters will, especially in the marginals, vote Tory simply to keep euroland loving LAB/LIB Mp’s out.

  42. Amber if you are still stumped, then the answer is Conservative. I don’t think that you can’t deny that they are all over the place about Europe and I hate the EU,

    Someone asked me the other day, “How can you vote Tory?” and I replied “With a heavy heart and a strong drink before I do it”

  43. @Howard…………..I just enjoy the company of people who don’t brainwash their kids with Marxist claptrap. :-)

  44. @ NICK HADLEY & HOWARD

    I was hoping we’d get some analysis of the ICM outcomes that were written about in 2 Guardian articles – that would’ve given us something to discuss, rather than us all just chatting & waiting for a new poll to appear.

    But so far, nobody has taken up the challenge of reviewing the ICM/ Guardian outcomes & critiquing them.

  45. @ KYLE

    I thought Tory was too obvious… I was trying to remember if the old liberal party ever made a faux pas re: Europe, back in the day.

    Whatever they say out loud, the majority of Tories are pro-business & pro-farmers therefore they are pro-Europe.

  46. “Guys your ancedotes ignore the facts…

    Since polling has begun, the youth have always favoured Labour and Liberals over Tory….

    The point where I was wrong and Matt was correct was the % of youth which we can expect to turn out… I have no evidence of substance bar 1918 election that large numbers of them can shape a result. in the manner I have suggested…

    Sinn Féin won 73 seats in teh December 1918 election. Locally, there were reports that they carried their parents to the polling booths and even threatened their parents with violence if they did not give up the bourgeois party…. tenuous evidence I know…

    Sorry Matt :)”

    No need to apologise, Eoin. Your analysis was mainly valid IMO in that more young people will probably vote than have done in recent decades, and this will benefit the Lib Dems/Labour.

    “Balance re-dress here:

    My son campaigns for Labour. He & literally hundreds of young people that he ‘influences’ will vote Labour – or LD for tactical reasons.

    Does anybody want to raise the stakes? :-) :-)”

    The stats overwhelmingly back up the point that younger people tend to vote Lib Dem/Labour and always have done. I, therefore, wonder what happens to turn many young people away from socialistic views/political parties as they get older, and is this something that parties like the Lib Dems/Labour can address? It’s an interesting point IMO, as so many people would remain Lib Dem/Labour supporters if only they could convince them to keep their views when they reach adulthood, and this would surely have major implications for British politics and society.

  47. @SURBITON
    That is the nicest thing anybody has ever said to me Surby. To be responsible for the British Empire, my goodness, I am deeply moved.

  48. @ MATT

    In the past, Labour/ LD lost the youngsters when they started reading newspapers :-( But that may be all in the past, as newspaper circulation is falling.

    In the US, they are filling that gap with Fox news etc. But I am hopeful that won’t happen here.

  49. ROLAND HAINES
    @SURBITON
    That is the nicest thing anybody has ever said to me Surby. To be responsible for the British Empire, my goodness, I am deeply moved.
    ————

    To each his own, Roly !

  50. @KEN
    Did you notice the day before yesterday, you made a funny ever so slightly risque comment. I made like a PC Stalinist and jokingly rebuked you. Lo and behold a bit later I made a little joke and was duly set upon for real by the Thought Police. The best of it was the guy having the hissy fit got the wrong poster and blamed poor Bill Roy. I took it like a man and owned up, it is something of a shock to see the level of seriousness some of these people take themselves.

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