YouGov’s poll in the Sun today has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 31%, LDEM 18%, so little change in the Conservative lead as we head towards the election.

This poll has a significant methodological change, albeit one which has made hardly any difference to the topline figures. Unlike nearly all of the other pollsters YouGov do not normally take into account likelihood to vote in their topline figures – based I believe on the theory that away from elections polls are snapshots, rather than predictions.

In 2005 in YouGov’s final pre-election poll they did factor in likelihood to vote, which decreased the Labour lead slightly and made YouGov’s final prediction more accurate. At this election YouGov have decided to factor it in from the start of the campaign, so on the assumption that Brown will call the election tomorrow, they are now in election mode and the figures are weighted by likelihood to vote in the same way that Populus do.

This actually makes very little difference to the figures. Without weighting by likelihood to vote the figures would have been CON 40%(+1), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 18%(-2), so all the likelihood weighting did was push up the Conservatives by one point (which, I should add is pretty typical of the testing we’ve done over the last month. It’s never made more than 1 point difference).

Methodological discussion aside, YouGov’s poll shows Labour rising at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, though obviously the lead has a rather greater contrast! Given the normal doubts about polls over bank holidays, I think the chances are that YouGov or ICM have got a strange bank holiday sample (Opinium don’t have any political weighting, so are likely to be a bit erratic anyway).

With recent polls coming together somewhat around a Conservative lead of around 10 points or just below, it’s probably better to be sceptical of the ICM poll until and unless other pollsters show a similar narrowing of the lead. I expect we’ll have no shortage of polling over the next few days to enlighten us.


528 Responses to “YouGov show 10 point Conservative lead”

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  1. @ SUE

    OR of course it could just as easily be those who can’t bear another 5 years of Labour?
    —————————————-
    The interesting thing about that is, according to the G, the max vote potential of Labour is 42% & the max Tory potential is also 42%. So it looks like more of the soft voters would move left rather than right.

    I found that very encouraging, generally speaking.

  2. @Barnaby…………..I concede……….My first wife was a Scot, but I fell out with her dad when Winnie Ewing won Hamilton and he and his mates felt it inappropriate for an Englishman to join in the Whisky fuelled toast. :-)

  3. Further to my last point, I definitely do think that people are influenced to a large degree by their upbringing.

    I come from a very close, extended family. My own situation has made me realise how lucky I am (and how unlucky many other young people/children are). It has undoubtedly made me more conservative when it comes to social views/thinking. For me, this election is less about who benefits personally from tax/money (I don’t benefit under any party anyway), and more to do with protecting/reinforcing traditional conservative views through a government.

  4. @ SUE

    I’m hoping for a Bonkers Holiday Poll from YG tonight; just to see how the pigeons do with a cat amongst them ;-)

  5. “YouGov putting the Tories on 41 seemed unlikely too.
    i think I really ought to switch off and look again in a week.”

    Yeah, I expect the true figure was probably around 39 (with Labour’s at 29/30) because of the lack of Lib Dem exposure during the past week.

  6. Amber
    Thank you. Funnily enough I had seen the main article but did not spot the side links -myopia again I suppose.

    The continued slight Tory lead on the economy is at first sight astonishing until you put aside your anorak knowledge and insert ‘It’s not the Economy stupid’ but ‘It’s their economy stupid’ and then it makes more sense and then you substitute ‘It what they hope for their economy’ and then you arrive at the correct result.

    My favourite FGF will see a narrowing of that result, if it occurs of course.

  7. @ KEN

    LOL – Two of my brothers are married to English lasses; we give them a warm welcome whenever they venture North of the border.

  8. Amber – As long as the cat stays away from MY pigeons tonight, I’ll be happy

  9. “Amber – As long as the cat stays away from MY pigeons tonight, I’ll be happy”

    If there is a repeat of the last few nights, just try to ignore them. XD.

    Does anyone know if any polls are out tonight?

  10. Prediction for tonight’s You Gov

    Con 39
    Lab 31
    Lib 20

  11. @Oldnat,

    Hosie is on BBC news 24,

    It strikes me that his message is very similar to labour… “road to recovery”.

    Can we read anything into the SNP’s Westminster government preference from this?

  12. @Amber………………….I’m a Tory, he never forgave me for that ! :-)

  13. @ Howard

    I also think it’s interesting that Labour are 11 points ahead on care for the elderly – especially since you mentioned the subject up thread as becoming increasingly important to people.

    I’m not sure it’ll be a vote winner on its own – but it all adds to a respectable manifesto.

  14. i got taken to a Labour party meeting at the age of 8.
    My mum and Dad took Thatchers bribe in the 1980s
    { bought C H }
    My sister never voted Labour.
    I have voted Labour since 1970.
    Own my own property alway worked over- time.
    In 1983 – 1984 worked 7 days aweek for 52 weeks.

  15. Ken – @Amber………………….I’m a Tory, he never forgave me for that !

    Don’t blame him ;) (joke)

    My prediction is 38 31 19

  16. I can safely say that not one member of my family has ever voted :)

  17. Anthony – Is there more than just the Yougov tonight? I assume the pollsters will want a base poll to start the election campaign with

  18. @Éoin…………………Prisoners ? :-)

  19. @Ken :)

    Alas, no….

    In Ireland prisoners win elections lol.

  20. @ SUE

    I’m hoping for 38 35 19 – I would be laughing my socks off as everybody called it a holiday glitch.

  21. Red Rag – I don’t know of any. You are right there will be lots and lots to start the campaign, but I expect most will have been put in the field this morning rather than start off on bank holiday Monday.

    Populus is confirmed as fieldwork today and tomorrow, with publication tomorrow night. We had ICM and Opinium yesterday. We await news of ComRes, MORI and the newer companies.

  22. I am worried that both parties will be inadequate when it come to care for the elderly – I think it’s a major problem. I can see it being a major problem in the decades ahead, especially with regards to who will fund the care.

    The problem IMO is that pensioners who have savings/own a house are being asked (wrongly IMO) to lose their house/savings to pay for their care. Not only is this grossly unfair, but it will lead to problems in the future. By this, I mean that pensioners at the moment are a frugal lot generally, who often feel a deep sense of shame at getting in debt (wrightly/wrongly, it goes back to the olden days where debt was seen as extremely shameful). Tomorrow’s pensioners (and I particularly include my generation in this) are the opposite; many spend when if they don’t have it, and we live in an ‘entitlement culture’ where everyone has to have the latest gadget, car etc. I therefore predict that a lot of tomorrow’s pensioners will simply dispose of their savings and house weeks before they are due to receive care and have a blimming good spend up (and who could blame them really, after all we are penalised for having savings/owning a house in old age, and the care will provided for them anyway).

  23. Family political alleagance all over the place, some are North Eastern tories, some SW labour, although I think the last of the labour ones are going across to torys this time.

    Its funny we all seem to be surrounded by like minded individuals. Which I beleive blinkers our views….

    YG tonight, 39/30/20

  24. “I can safely say that not one member of my family has ever voted :)”

    My parents used to be Labour voters in the past, but have voted for the Tories since 2001. I voted for the Green party at the last 2 election (same as my sister), but we will both vote for the Tories this time round.

  25. @Matt……………..Your comment definitely identifies the elephant in the room. The issue that no-one will address properly, we can’t afford to look after the current ageing generation let alone the next . It doesn’t bear thinking about, it’s frightening.

  26. Has any polling been done on whether or not people are likely to change their vote in order to either avoid or create a hung parliament?

    Some colleagues at work expressed the opinion some time ago that they were likely to vote Labour in the hope of avoiding a hung parliament (don’t follow the logic myself).

    What is the prevailing thought out there if the Tories do get a number of polls around the ten percent lead level will people end up voting Tory to ensure stable Government.

  27. Simonk, is that the confirmed YG poll or your prediction?

  28. “@Matt……………..Your comment definitely identifies the elephant in the room. The issue that no-one will address properly, we can’t afford to look after the current ageing generation let alone the next . It doesn’t bear thinking about, it’s frightening.”

    I know, care for the elderly is an issue that I have very strong opinions about. I just don’t believe elderly people in this country get a fair deal at all.

  29. Amber
    Yes i would have been interested in a breakdown of that result on elderly provision . But of course such a question posed brings up the subject that Matt covers, rather than the window between 65 and 85, say. I thought I would move it on to the results about the economy which, as I wrote, still cause me to exclaim ‘eh, pardon?’ when I first see them.

    All the time my mother was getting pension credit, fuel payments, etc, she never showed an ounce of gratitude or pleasure, mainly I suspect because they were paid straight into her account and I managed that eventually. The bus pass was appreciated. Her generation had got used to the car and considered buses to be a provision for poor people and the handicapped. But my father’s death left her stranded. Now she sits in a chair staring into space so I don’t suppose she will worry about such matters any more, which is the point I made earlier.
    A big issue, I wonder?

  30. My prediction for YouGov:-

    Cons 40
    Labour 31
    Lib Dems 20

  31. Robert

    “Has any polling been done on whether or not people are likely to change their vote in order to either avoid or create a hung parliament?”

    Me! I’ve polled a sample of Me and found a 100% majority in favour of a hung parliament. I found that Me happens to live in a marginal seat and is a keen follower of the polls. Me has publicly stated that he intends to vote for whichever of the the two candidates is most likely to create a hung parliament.

    Further questioning of Me revealed that he dislikes both the Thatcher-Major government and the Blair-Brown government, even though they were quite different. The problems with each were their more extreme policies. Things like the Poll tax and ID cards. A hung parliament will, apparently, either be a coalition or a minority government and in either case, the major party will have to get support of “others” to get legislation thought. These “others” are more likely to block the more crack pot ideas than back benchers of a party with an overall majority.

    Hung parliament: Bring it on!

  32. My NEW YouGov prediction for tonight:

    Con 42

    Lab 29

    LD 19

    :o :o

  33. Fortune favours the brave……my prediction for tonight…

    C 41
    L 29
    LD 19

    I am now in the hands of the polling Gods. :-)

  34. What on earth are you doing to this site?? The links seem to jump to a new style page format which is so uninspiring and dull and the ‘make your own prediction’ doesn’t work at all. A site like this should come into its own in the run up to an election and yet its just a mess!

  35. Sorry, should of said prediction……

    My personal opinion on care is that we need to make sure that we don’t punish people for making their own or their families care provision. So if I want to look after my parents I should not be penalised under the tax system, effectivly paying twice.

    Same for a lot of things, I still have a final salery pension but I have paid an extra £7000 over and above what I would have to because of the tax change in 1997. Now if I lost my pension tax relief, something I understand is a “secret” labour policy then our pension will be come unafrodable and will close.

    Why should people be punished for making individual provision ? Is that selfish ? My beleif is the state should only provide a safety net nothing more.

  36. My You Gov prediction

    Con 39%
    Lab 32%
    Lid Dem 20%

  37. YG

    T= 39
    La=32
    Li= 18

  38. @ Howard

    Some things are too important to be just about winning votes.

    I hope you do not miss your mum too much now she is not the person you knew.

  39. Are we all in denial, I know I am ! I just go about my business as if there is nothing wrong……….slight matter of a trillion or two, no problem, pass the wine list ! Cheers ! :-)

  40. Sorry, been away for an hour or so.

    Éoin,

    Croydon has three constituencies: North (staunch Labour), central (very marginal) and South, which contains frightfully nice places like Coulsden, Sanderstead and Purley, and is much more like darkest Surrey, and is therefore solid Tory.

    Surbiton,

    Re: our respective sons – it sounds like you have it a lot tougher than me. I hope you get all the support and care that you need.

  41. Not such good news for the Conservatives tonight from You Gov!!

  42. Sunbeam-what are the figures then?

  43. Is it not touching, that, notwithstanding the issues discussed, posters trust this community enough to share their lives with us in such an honest and open way, I know we’ll rise to the challenge.

  44. Tories 39
    Labour 33
    Liberals 19

    :)

  45. @ Colin Green

    Same here – the dream result for me would be a Hung Parliament leading to a Tory/LD coalition with a change to fixed 4 year terms and a move towards a full PR system – none of this AV nonsense that keeps Brown in power forever mind!

  46. Ken,

    Hear hear. I thoroughly enjoy reading the views of people from across the political viewpoint spectrum here, and when you come across someone with whom you feel an affinity, or something in common, this is such an unusually open place that it feels perfectly fine to wave a friendly hand.

  47. TONIGHT
    CONS 40
    LAB 28
    LIB 20

    I think its a real up hill struggle for Lab, may have been different if they had got rid of Brown for Alan Jonson.

    I would say its all over barring a big own goal by the Cons.

  48. Eoin Clarke

    “Can we read anything into the SNP’s Westminster government preference from this?”

    Nope!

    Other than, in general, Scots are more “public/community” orientated than “private/self”. I have Tory friends here who seem far to the left of New Labour ones in London.

  49. My prediction, Conservatives back below 40 @ 38, Labour regaining the momentum after calling the election and back to 32 and the Libs @ 20.

  50. @ Ken

    When it’s just the regulars, it feels a like a community.

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