YouGov’s poll in the Sun today has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 31%, LDEM 18%, so little change in the Conservative lead as we head towards the election.

This poll has a significant methodological change, albeit one which has made hardly any difference to the topline figures. Unlike nearly all of the other pollsters YouGov do not normally take into account likelihood to vote in their topline figures – based I believe on the theory that away from elections polls are snapshots, rather than predictions.

In 2005 in YouGov’s final pre-election poll they did factor in likelihood to vote, which decreased the Labour lead slightly and made YouGov’s final prediction more accurate. At this election YouGov have decided to factor it in from the start of the campaign, so on the assumption that Brown will call the election tomorrow, they are now in election mode and the figures are weighted by likelihood to vote in the same way that Populus do.

This actually makes very little difference to the figures. Without weighting by likelihood to vote the figures would have been CON 40%(+1), LAB 31%(+2), LDEM 18%(-2), so all the likelihood weighting did was push up the Conservatives by one point (which, I should add is pretty typical of the testing we’ve done over the last month. It’s never made more than 1 point difference).

Methodological discussion aside, YouGov’s poll shows Labour rising at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, though obviously the lead has a rather greater contrast! Given the normal doubts about polls over bank holidays, I think the chances are that YouGov or ICM have got a strange bank holiday sample (Opinium don’t have any political weighting, so are likely to be a bit erratic anyway).

With recent polls coming together somewhat around a Conservative lead of around 10 points or just below, it’s probably better to be sceptical of the ICM poll until and unless other pollsters show a similar narrowing of the lead. I expect we’ll have no shortage of polling over the next few days to enlighten us.


528 Responses to “YouGov show 10 point Conservative lead”

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  1. I know it is great fun making predictions prior to a new poll being published, but can you please make it clear if you are making your own stab in the dark or if you are posting intelligence of the actual poll results – YouGov’s website seems to be down at the minute and it’s driving me crazy!

  2. I predict YouGov to remain the same….

  3. Maurice is this the real poll or your prediction?

  4. I predict

    con 39
    lab 30
    lib 20

    I doubt there would be much impact from Brown calling the election.

  5. @Amber…………Friendly tribes ! :-)

  6. Just been on the Twitter Drum and the EricPickles/BlueNation Blog tune playing tonight is……

    Con – 37

    Lab – 32

    Lib – 19

    I have have the same sources as the twitterers from last night and those that have told us the results so effectively hours before the official announcement…..I get the result from looking at tea leaves and then rolling three dice to the tune of any Elvis No.1. song :-)

  7. No sorry its a prediction,

    Sorry not being clear.

  8. I have a question for you…

    How are we going to communicate on election night? If we use this site to chat we’re going to crash it, and the political activists amongst us (out and about with their Blackberries and Iphones) won’t be able to load the pages anyway.

    Is it worth setting up a chatroom, mIRC, Skype or something for 6th May?

  9. I WOULD LIKE A HUNG PARLIAMENT.
    AND ANOTHER ELECTION IN 6 MONTHS TIME.
    I ENJOY ELECTION NIGHTS. I EVEN SIT UP FOR FOR BYE ELECTION RESULTS AND THE usa ELECTIONS.
    GREAT CARTOON IN THE MAIL G.B. CRYING AT PALACE BECAUSE HE HAS TO ASK THE QUEEN TO CALL ELECTION .

  10. My prediction for YG

    Con 38
    Lab 32
    LD 19

  11. No need to shout Alan, you’re amongst friends here (apparently).

    I too am an election night geek. On holiday this week; the first thing I’ll do when I go back in on Monday will be to book May 7th off. Talk recently of ditching the all night counting and publishing the results over a couple of days had me screaming “Noooooooooooooooooooo!”

  12. In 1992 I was a young(ish) uniformed constable, and I was on night duty for GE night. My very considerate Inspector, who knew what a geek I was, arranged for me to man the telephones so I could sit and watch TV all night. Gawd bless ‘im.

  13. @ NEIL A

    A chatroom would be cool. Does anybody know how to set one up?

  14. Day off on May 7th for me too – have had a holiday following day every election since 1974

    psephologist geeks of the world unite!

  15. Skype or Mibbet (a type of IRC) are fairly easy. I’m not expert though. I’d be amazed if we didn’t have an ubergeek techie amongst us somewhere.

  16. @ Dan Clarke – lead halved. Yesterday was a rogue. Sorry but don’t have numbers _ only that lead slashed.

  17. @OLDNAT

    Thought SNP preference was for Tory win to boost chances of a Yes in independence referendum – due this year isn’t it?

  18. booked Friday 7th may off work today. Does that make me sad?

  19. My prediction for YouGov poll tonight:

    Cons 41%
    Labour 30%
    Lib Dems 20%

    Not sure why Yougov poll will drop Tories down to 37% as some are predicting. Hope possibly?

  20. Looks like Twitter-rumours rather than predictions.

  21. On other (non-political) forums that i post on, the general viewpoint seems to be “i don’t think i can stand 30 days of this”.

  22. @ Adrian

    “booked Friday 7th may off work today. Does that make me sad?”

    Ditto. Will have my Cider and peanuts ready. Mind you the Cider was really expensive. i wonder why?

  23. C 40
    L 32
    LD 17
    Sky news

  24. I recently cancelled my oder for the Guardian after 35 years because of its Labour bias and too strident stance on climate change so might I suggest the Guardian poll is out of kilter because they employed some unemployed climate scientists to do the statistical analysis.

  25. Sky News is reporting tonight’s YouGov as Con 40, Lab 32 Lib 17

  26. Lead appears to be 8% per sky news

  27. Good poll for Torys stay at 40 lab up to 32.

    40 is the magic number

  28. YG daily poll: The Sun Apr 6 Apr 5

    CONSERVATIVES 40% 41%
    LABOUR 32% 31%
    LIB DEMS 17% 18%
    LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 6.5%

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