Tonight’s polls

I am expecting three new polls tonight. YouGov in the Sun (normally at around 10pm, though sometimes Sky News seem to have the figures earlier), ICM in the Guardian (normally a bit earlier – I’ve heard it could be very soon), and there is apparently at least one other, though I haven’t had it confirmed who, where or if it actually exists.


64 Responses to “Tonight’s polls”

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  1. if you can find a copy can you link/upload the full tables to the YouGov Poll

  2. Prediction:

    YouGov: Con 38 Lab 30 LD 20
    ICM: Con 39 Lab 30 LD 22.

    Labour has had a reasonably steady weekend. As a result I see their vote stabilising somewhat. A couple of mini-gaffes from the Tories, but nothing significant. Nothing really from the LD’s apart from the appearance of the battlebus in the three way marginal of Hampstead and Kilburn.

  3. The Election appears to be well and truly under way in Keighley with a couple of giant ‘Vote for us’ posters for each of the two main protagonists. These are the plain ‘domestic’ posters, which normally only appear once the starting gun has been fired. So for once, Keighley appears to be ahead of the game. Unless of course they are for 2005….

    Anyway my straw poll has Keighley as a two-way marginal. (Sorry, don’t know the proper name of the constituency as I don’t live there).

  4. Prediction

    ICM

    Tory 39%
    Labour 30%
    Libs 19%

    YouGov

    Tory 38%
    Labour 30%
    Libs 19 %

    Opinion/AR/Harris (whichever it is)
    Tory 38%
    Labour 27%
    Libs 19%
    Others to win by a nose ;)

  5. “Prediction

    ICM

    Tory 39%
    Labour 30%
    Libs 19%

    YouGov

    Tory 38%
    Labour 30%
    Libs 19 %

    Opinion/AR/Harris (whichever it is)
    Tory 38%
    Labour 27%
    Libs 19%
    Others to win by a nose ;)”

    Those predictions mirror my own!!!

  6. @RAF

    I am surprised you consider the Gene Hunt poster and the coverage of J Beharry VC refusing to shake GB’s hand a resonably “steady” weekend.

    Of course the Tories have been wobbly too.
    So your prediction could well be correct.

    Since GB is using footie similies (Roony’s ankle) I shall use one as well and suggest that at the end of the bank holiday it is a score draw between the two main parties with at least one own goal each.

  7. Simon the constituency is indeed called Keighley and it is definitely a 2-way (Labour-Conservative) marginal.

  8. ICM have Tory lead at 4%

  9. The Conservatives are at 37%, Labour at 33%, Liberals Democrats 21%.

    Apparently.

  10. Opinium/Express

    CONS 39; LAB 29

  11. ICM (on Guardian website)

    Con 37 (-1)
    Lab 33 (+4)
    LD 21 (-2)
    Others 9 (-1)

  12. Greetings to Barnaby
    Good to see you are enjoying all this as much as I am!

  13. Con 40
    Lab -30
    Lib – 20
    Oth – 10

    Just a guess really

  14. WOW!!!!!

  15. “ICM have Tory lead at 4%”

    Is that a prediction or poll result? If it’s a poll result, I would say it’s great news for Labour.

  16. Umm… today’s three predictions have been a tad off the mark!

  17. One of them has a 10% lead and one has a falling Tory lead….but which one is which?

  18. Still a 10% Con Lead with Opinium. Don’t get too excited Labourites

  19. “Opinium/Express

    CONS 39; LAB 29

    So one poll is showing a 4 point lead, the other a 10 point lead!! I await the YouGov poll with interest.

  20. Opinium and ICM both have others on the way down………….. voters starting to make their mind up

  21. ICM/Guardian poll result:

    Conservative 37% (-1)
    Labour 33% (+4)
    Lib Dems 21% (-2)
    Others 9% (-1)

    I reckon this is an outlier, have to look at the other polls out tonight to confirm either way.

  22. Any theories why the polls (if ICM is not a rogue) are moving so completely at odds with reality?

    I note that ICM has the Tory lead nosediving if you take the last four polls.

  23. Harry

    be careful

    ICM only has the Tories down 1%

    It is lib dems exposure which has ended their improvement

  24. I’d say if Labour close the YouGov lead to 5 or 6 points tonight, it would be great news for them!

  25. @John Fletcher
    Perhaps I should have said “comparatively” steady weekend. The comparison being with last week.
    Still, the ICM numbers are very strange.

  26. @barnaby

    Thanks for that! I promise to pay more attention in future :O

  27. YG is the decider.

  28. As per Guardian:

    Realistically, Labour is unlikely to beat its 2005 share of 36% and even today’s poll suggesting it has shed only three points since then will surprise many. But there is all to play for as the contest begins

    Seems even the Guardian tink the ICM poll is somewhat odd…

  29. So the “gold standard” ICM (we all agreed remember?) has a 4 pointer and it’s out of line???? Please see my comments on previous thread!
    suppose I should wait for the confirmation of ICM but I think we trust them over Opinium don’t we?

  30. “Still, the ICM numbers are very strange.”

    I think it is probably underestimating the Tory lead, with the Opinium poll overestimating the Conservative lead.

    Either way, the YouGov poll should sort everything out shortly. I now alter my prediction downward to a 6% Cons lead.

  31. Not far out with the 2nd poll.

    EOIN I think your right it is not a huge dent in the Tory vote and it will be interesting to see the yougov poll to see which is more likely to be accurate.

    I dont expect anything different from an ICM/Guardian Poll they are slightly Labour friendly. I suppose you could say the same about the other poll for the Tories.

    Yougov should be interesting.

  32. The VC winner ‘story’ happened last November. I just read the Sky article and drew an unfortunate impression (not his bravery). He has allowed himself to be used by the Sun and if I could have advised him, i would have advised not to go anywhere near the press. We shall have bucket loads of this stuff before the end and it will all be ordinary people having their 15 minutes of fame, to quote Warhol, and it will do them no good. I actually don’t think it will affect the outcome either. I defy anyone to point to a poll movement based on this type of thing (that lasted more than a day).

  33. Labour HQ wait for ICM more than any other polling company. A while back Harriet HArman castigated YouGov on the Daily Politics show. As Gordon Brown visits the Queen tomorrow, he does so with the shortest lead in two years.

    One caveat is that pollsters themselves are wary of polling results gathered over Bank Hols. For what reason I have no idea…

    What date is the public holiday for May Day this year?

  34. Suddenly ICM is no longer the “Gold Standard”.

    That accolade goes to, wait for it, YouGov.

    You couldn’t even make it up.

  35. “So the “gold standard” ICM (we all agreed remember?) has a 4 pointer and it’s out of line???? Please see my comments on previous thread!
    suppose I should wait for the confirmation of ICM but I think we trust them over Opinium don’t we?”

    I think we should never take one poll in isolation (same goes with the 10 point Opinium poll). I think Yougov should make things clearer when it comes out tonight.

  36. I reckon the Yougov will definitely be somewhere between the two.

  37. Surbiton – We will be the very model of reasonable behaviour after the disgrace of the YouGov 10 reaction.

  38. The ICM looks an oulier to me. Even the Guardian writer suggests that the Easter holidays might have affected the result, and ends by saying that only a 3% drop in Labour support from 2005 is surprising.

  39. CraigU – “I dont expect anything different from an ICM/Guardian Poll they are slightly Labour friendly. I suppose you could say the same about the other poll for the Tories.

    !!!!!!!!!!

  40. Opinium now has labour at 29%. Is that the highest they have ever had labour?

  41. I suspect that most people agree with Chris Grayling re. who bread and breakfast issue, so don’t expect any negative impact for the Tories in the polls.

  42. Howard – Is that true? The VC guy from today was actually a story from last Nov? That’s disgraceful!!! Really? Have I understood you correctly???

  43. I guess the plus for the Tories with Opinium is that it shows them closer to reaching the ‘magic 40%’.

    The plus for Labour is that it shows them closer to 30% – up 1% on the previous poll.

  44. I don’t think Jonathan and Bob W were very brave (38 30 20 UKPR won’t alter by more than 3 points on any %).
    My own prediction is 36 34 22 and has been since we started competing. It’s hardly out from this statement and yet the first gives the Tories the upper hand in a coalition and mine gives Labour that.

    The interest is not only in the percentages but in the outcome. Tonight’s ICM for instance (field work days??) would give the same outcome as my own prediction – and the campaign hasn’t started!

  45. “The proportion of Lib Dems and Conservatives saying they might vote Labour instead has doubled since ICM last asked this question earlier in the year. The ICM figures suggest the maximum potential vote for Labour and the Conservatives – all their definite supporters, plus all potential switchers – is running neck and neck at 42%. The Lib Dem maximum is 28%.

    Realistically, Labour is unlikely to beat its 2005 share of 36% and even today’s poll suggesting it has shed only three points since then will surprise many. Nonetheless, there is all to play for as the contest begins now.”

    ———————-
    The comments are from the Guardian. Labour vote is solidifying. The Iraq “deserters” are coming home !

  46. Sue Marsh
    Surbiton – We will be the very model of reasonable behaviour after the disgrace of the YouGov 10 reaction.

    —————–

    Yes, Ma’am. It will be difficult though.

  47. Sue – BeHarry -yes – according to Sky news site.

    All newspaper articles should be read for dates. The tabloids frequently re-hash stories or save them up for opportune moments.

    Easter is slow news, staff off, so……….

  48. Surbiton

    “Yes, Ma’am. It will be difficult though.”

    Are you quoting from Brown’s chat with Lizzie tomorrow/

  49. Wow I’m very happy with ICM. Thanks for the info Surbiton. It’s what I’ve been hoping for. Now just for YG & Anthony said there may be another apart from Opinium. At least Op doesn’t show the lead widening.

  50. I think the Labour supporters are tarring the Tories with their brush. Who said YG were the GOLD STANDARD in the first place? I did not. Who said ICM were the GOLD STANDARD in the first place? I did not. Suddenly I notice we dont trust Opinium in the left camp. Honestly, they are like a bunch of soccer supporters. We have a 10 and a 4, just wait for YG as a decider. If its 3 or 4 that will tell you that you will have 5 more years of heaven. If its 9 or 10, Oh God, Famous Grouse and paracetomal time.

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