ICM’s latest poll for the Guardian has topline figures, with changes from their previous poll a week or so ago, of CON 38%(-1), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 23%(+4). The poll was conducted on the 30th and 31st March.

There is a significant increase in Liberal Democrat support – the Guardian speculate that this could be because of publicity the Chancellor’s debate which is feasible, though I will add my normal caveat about being wary of any movement in a single poll until the trend is picked up elsewhere. According to Julian Glover’s report here, the Lib Dem increase is largely down to a big increase in likelihood to vote amongst Lib Dem supporters, which would at least explain why YouGov haven’t detected a similar movement in their polls this week.

61 Responses to “ICM show a boost for the Lib Dems”

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  1. Oops :-( Vince is great (avoid naughty step at all costs) :-)

  2. @Howard – I believe this will be a question asked in polls in the coming days – and will unsuprising show strong support for this measure. However, you’re right the fact this measure has yet to be brought in and almost forgotten about will mean this will unlikely translate to long term Con gains.

    Looking at the polls this time last week and the Cons are virtually polling the same, Labour has fallen but has been at the benefit of others and Lib Dem’s – this is also almost certain as a result of the budget with memory of this fading by the day. The cons will be concerned there share, especially with the headlines they’ve spun aren’t translating in increases.

    Await egg on my face tonight!!!!

  3. Uncle Vince – best Chancellor we’ll never have

  4. @CHRIS
    Anthony Wells has moderated me very many times. I deserved 99% of them. The difference between you and I is I know it.
    Further, I hit my party when they are wrong, I am not blind to their folly. Your commitment to Labour has the smell of the Brown (no pun intended) shirt about it.

  5. @Roland – I know it too – I’ve now learnt not to bite against WUM’s so i’ll stop there.

  6. Manifestos are normally for the anoraks. But in the absence of any clear message from any party and not even a good dog whistle, perhaps it may be different this time. i mean, with the Debates, they really need something to debate about, do they not?

  7. @ Andy JS ‘ I suggest they put him on all their party political broadcasts if they want to remain at 23%.’

    I imagine they don’t want to remain at 23% at all, hoping their leader’s performance in the debates will propel them well above that level.

    In any case, surely, the LDs will not be unhappy to see the other two fall a bit, but Labour rather more.

    A Tory government with a secure majority, faced by a defeated, tired and squabbling Labour opposition – and the consequent prospect of the LDs winning hundreds of Tory council seats and dozens more councils – is the nearest thing to political bliss they could possibly imagine in the coming years.

    A far pleasanter prospect by far than being tossed around and hung out to dry in a ‘hung’ parliament.

  8. I think people are misunderstanding the true impact of the Tory NI/tax cut decision. It’s not the swing voters it needs to affect, it’s those on the right toying with the idea of voting UKIP/not voting at all.

    The Tories seem to be quietly delivering some good old fashioned ‘right wing’ policies and rhetoric just in time to sink in before the election.

    Not so much as too scare off the bleeding hearts and the politically unaware but just enough to remind the potential core that they’re still ‘on the right’.

    Don’t believe it? Watch the poll numbers creep up a point or so a week for them. 42-44% by polling day If they play their cards right.

  9. Chris,

    WUM=Wind up Merchant?

    Opposing opinions should not simply ‘wind you up’ . If we never took on board the views of others we couldn’t grow any wiser could we?

  10. The local and European elections last June showed the Lib Dems were in decline. In the South West, in particular, they did badly, losing Cornwall, Devon and Somerset to the Conservatives after being in control for many years. A factor in their success in the early years of this decade was their anti-Iraq War stance, but that is all history now. Even if some Conservatives are still troubled by Cameron’s move to the left with his compassionate Conservativism, it appeals to the Liberal-inclined voters.

  11. It’s dangerous to use the Euro elections as a benchmark, though. PR encourages people to align opinion with party, disregarding the ‘size’ of the party. In Euro elections, Tories often vote UKIP, Lib Dems often vote Labour or even Conservative, because the case for Europe has yet to be made with clarity and impact.

    I’m afraid that until we have PR in this country, gauging national voting on representative elections will continue to be risky business.

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