Polls tonight

There is an interesting response from Peter Kellner here about something that looks set to be in the Telegraph tomorrow. I’ll have more to say about it later.

Tonight I’m expecting at least two new polls.

UPDATE: Almost as I hit submit, I found yet another poll – there are also new figures from TNS BMRB. Topline figures with changes from their previous poll are CON 38%(-1), LAB 33%(+2), LDEM 19%(nc). I think the fieldwork was between the 24th and 30th, so all post-budget. The other polls tonight are ICM and YouGov.

UPDATE 2: Corrected TNS BMRB’s dates to match those they quote on their website.


124 Responses to “Polls tonight”

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  1. @Sue,

    Matt could be reffering to the lead the Tories enjoy over labour on all of these issues..

    While labour are credited with voters for health and education, Matt rightly identifies that the voters don’t give them credit for these issues…..

    My own opinion may differ but it is not important.

  2. @Howard

    “It wasn’t put on there before 1200 today was it Colin?”

    I’ve no idea. I only noticed it at lunch time when browsing the site.

  3. Éoin thanks for your support ;-)

    Polly; in answer to your two questions ; No & Yes in that order.

    Roland, you are kind. I will give my Java Sparrows an extra lettuce leaf in honour of your wisdom ;-)

  4. I think the Lib Dem thing came from something Howard dean was saying. Apparently he is a friend of Clegg.

  5. Sue M
    Please, give me a reason why on earth a 40% reduction in overall crime could be anything but a positive for Labour?

    Because like immigration, the economy and everything else, they are told otherwise by the news media every minute of every day. It is actually an amazement to me that Lab is at 30 plus. It says a literally astonishing resilience on the part of your supporters Sue.

  6. Anthony – please can you have a look at my answer to
    Éoin Polly & Roland -i really can’t think why it’s in moderation. Thanks

  7. I think I’m going to have to start putting smileys on my contributions, Colin :-)

  8. EOIN – how did DC undermine Osborne today? (Ken Clarke certainly did)

  9. @Sue,

    He admitted that the tories deficit reduction plan had some gaps or something to that affect….. Nick R is all over it….

    Not my view I must point out…….

  10. Nick Robinson? Tory Nick? Well I’ll go to the foot of our stairs, (as my Nan used to say) Thanks.

    I would like a points system where I get points for NOT responding to comments like SimonK’s, and get them taken away when I forget and reply to Matt’s.
    When I’m absolutely brilliant, that should get a point or two too.

  11. “@Sue,

    Matt could be reffering to the lead the Tories enjoy over labour on all of these issues..

    While labour are credited with voters for health and education, Matt rightly identifies that the voters don’t give them credit for these issues…..”

    Yeah, look at voters’ views of the above issues – they show the Tories well out in front. Simply put, most voters don’t think that the Labour has dealt with these issues at all well (rightly or wrongly). I, therefore, think that the Tories could have some success if they focus on these issues in their election campaign.

    I know I am digressing by saying this, but I don’t personally believe/trust statistics much – whichever political party/organisation provides them. I’m cynical that way.

  12. Oh well, that’s OK then. As long as the Daily Mail has done it’s job and the issue of crime has become swamped in their vitriol, we can all leave it at that.
    Matt – I bet you believe statistics you like?

  13. Thank you Anthony ;-)

  14. “Matt – I bet you believe statistics you like?”

    I don’t. I believe that crime was rising under the previous Tory governments (post 1950s/1960s), and I believe it is rising under Labour. I just think that crime is rising generally in the Western world – nothing any police force/government tells me would change my mind in this regard.

    In any case, in politics it’s perceptions that count, not statistics. My point was that the Tories are well ahead in these issues, but haven’t really yet taken advantage of this.

  15. “As long as the Daily Mail has done it’s job and the issue of crime has become swamped in their vitriol, we can all leave it at that.”

    I accept your point that the media/newspapers sensationalise crime stories out of all proportion though. This is always the problem with any ruling government. In fact, I vaguely remember Labour using the same issue against the Tories in 1992 when I was 10!

  16. An anecdotal observation, if I may. It seems to me that Britain must have the highest prosecution rate for murder in the world. In Ireland a lot of our murdering goes unpunished and I do not just mean terroirst related.

    In england, however, it strikes me that you catch em all. Its a credit to the police force and its rarely raised.

  17. “In england, however, it strikes me that you catch em all. Its a credit to the police force and its rarely raised.”

    Seconded.

  18. @ Éoin

    I’d like to think we’d be giving priority to catching the actual murderers.

  19. Al J – I don’t know what word it objected to, it may have been Java (as in script, as opposed to sparrow)

  20. I did a test – it is Sp#rrow. I got same mod when posting about Andrew Sp*rrow of the Guardian.

  21. Anthony thanks –
    I had a feeling it might have been that -which means I may have an extra ”life” because it happened to me once before when I was telling Roland about my birds.

  22. How strange!!!! – why would it stop sp#arrow? -must be election excitement ;-)

  23. lol It must be only capital S in sparrow !!!

  24. @Howard

    “I think I’m going to have to start putting smileys on my contributions, Colin”

    Your comment was worded with a little humour but I couldn’t see what – it went straight over my head. The only thing to do in that situation is to answer it straight ;)

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