Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The lead remains at seven points and there is clearly no significant change from yesterday. The increased Tory lead post budget does seem to be genuine, though as I said yesterday, we can’t tell if it will last.

While they are up one there is no vast Lib Dem boost from the Chancellors’ debate, though I as I said yesterday, it wouldn’t necessarily show up until tomorrow. Personally I doubt there will be – the media coverage this morning wasn’t particularly substantial and already seems to have moved on to Tony Blair’s speech and elderly care. The main leader debates are far more likely to impact the campaign.


483 Responses to “Daily YouGov poll – 38/31/19”

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  1. @POLLY TICKS
    I think you had decided on the Tories until you saw my photograph.

  2. I really expected the Tories to do better than this by now; with at least one poll on 40%. Nevertheless they are in a very strong position. I will reduce my expected majority from 60 to 50. Despite the nonsensical talk of hung parliaments, a Tory majority is almost a certainty.

  3. Where IS your photo Roland..? Love to see it !!

  4. @polly ticks – if you’re undecided, tell us three good things about each of the main parties.

    The AR poll is interesting in that it tends to suggest no lasting damage to Labour from the budget. Of course we are no closer to knowing why there is such a divergence from most other pollsters, and the actual results here are terrible for Labour if true, but a post budget and post NI tax cut rise for labour may be the first indication that things aren’t really moving for Cameron.

    There was a lot of talk a long time ago about whether the Tories needed to be above 40%. Most Tory leaning posters said it didn’t matter and the gap was the key. At the time I was of the view that while they didn’t technically have to be over 40% to win, anything less than that left them vulnerable to any Labour recovery. All pollsters now have them in that vulnerable position today.

    In many ways I liked Cameron’s announcements today about community organisers, but as someone who spent 25 in the charitable sector I can say that this will only work with long term and stable government funding, at some level at least. My questions are more about whether he could actually deliver the plan and concern over the vagueness of much of the policy. As ever.

  5. Sean Fear
    the Lib Dems split 32:42 in favour of Labour winning, or forming a coalition with them as opposed to the Conservatives winning, or forming a coalition with them.

    Unsurprising, I’d say. The few remaining Liberals in the L-Ds have at least prevented that party from embracing control-freakery, and probably find the “official” unionists leastworst for that reason alone.

  6. @Roland

    It makes me angry, too, but it also shows how policies can be undermined by administrative incompetence. At the end of the programme, I was wondering why we bother having a Home Office at all, if they’re incapable of doing anything properly.

    On top of that, virtually all of the Ministers interviewed appeared clueless about making things happen in an organisation.

  7. @ALEC
    Well Al as usual an awful lot of words to promote the Labour party position. Whatever the Tory headline figure, 37,38,39, the average is pushing up to a working majority over Labour. That is what counts dont you think?

  8. PB reporting revised Angus Reid figures, anyone know about this?

  9. Liberals and Others usually get/ poll in round the 30%

    it leaves a big slice of 70% for th ebig two fight over…

    the Tory vote and the Labour vote are inextricably linked

    a Tory 40% is a labour 30%
    a Tory 38% is a labour 32%
    a Tory 36% is a labour 34%

    This is why sue’s mythical 34% for labour matters.

  10. Sean Fear
    Brown’s best tactic would be to avoid talking about immigration, let alone attacking the Conservatives over it.

    One of Brown’s biggest problems is that he needs to tell different tales to different parts of his support. Scotland, which needs and wants immigration in the right places has less power to grant residence than a Swiss canton, while England which regards itself as overcrowded doesn’t want more immigration.

    As a home ruler rather than a nationalist, even I find that area “difficult” – the Labour Party must find it plain impossible.

  11. For those in doubt about the inextricable connection between the Tory share of the vote and the Labour share of the vote…

    the last 65 polls average the Tories at 38%
    the last 65 polls average the Reds at 31%

  12. New revised figures for Angus Reid tonight are 37/28/22 mistake made over the first figures. very low Tory result considering it is AR.

  13. It has now been confirmed by the Political Betting Moderator that Angus Reid’s figures have indeed been revised. Instead of being:

    Con 39%
    Lab 27%
    LD 23%
    Others 11%

    They are now:

    Con 37%
    Lab 28%
    LD 22%
    Others 13%

    A Con lead of 9% as opposed to 12%.

  14. That is by far the lowest lead for the tories and the highest rating that AR have had.

  15. Meant to say –

    That is by far the lowest lead for the tories and the highest rating for Labour that AR have had.

  16. Er -what’s going on!

  17. Angus Reid still doesn’t come onto my radar. However, it’s interesting yet another poll, very Con leading shows the Cons some way below 40%. Can’t understand his blind faith from some that the Cons will poll over 40%.

  18. Don’t like it.
    For an AR poll that’s worryingly low for Cons.

    Back to Arsenal v Barca

  19. I do not know if this will go into automatic moderation or not – if so it will appear whenever.

    Regarding AR – most people have decided prior to this poll that they should at the moment not be taken into account because of their high/low ratings for the main parties, now it is a case that they have changed their methodology apparently. Let them settle down and iron out quirks and then re-examine their results and methodology.

    As it is I find the world is going crazy, politicians and bookmakers making ‘mistakes’ with figures, the world must be coming to an end! :)

  20. Yes, yes, yes – but in my new role as ToryBoy I fully expect this to widen to a Conservative lead in the GE of circa 17% and a majority of 90/100.

    I have calculated this on the basis of what I would like to see, using my own secret methods [which I like to think are considerably better than bothering people and asking them what they think.]

  21. Don’t like it.
    For an AR poll that’s worryingly low for Cons.

    Back to Arsenal v Barcelona

  22. @ Brownedov ‘The few remaining Liberals in the L-Ds have at least prevented that party from embracing control-freakery’

    That is your opinion. This site deals in data and its intrerpretation. You overlooked to mention either in this case.

    When you’re ready….

  23. test

  24. Anyone else getting bored of hearing Labour touch-up NET immigration stats and would rather hear NON-net immigration stats?

  25. Tom No thanks, not interested myself since you ask.

    AR changes
    I know Anthony says that he expects the polls to converge somewhat but AR can do this in an hour and without conducting fresh interviews!

  26. Regarding AR’s apparent change in method, does anybody here have details of what these changes have entailed???

    39/27/22 fits reasonably well into the trend with other pollsters this time around, the mean Con figure over all recent polls matches up fairly well to this, Labour although a shade lower isn’t too far off and the LibDems are perhabs a tad on the high side.

  27. @ ALEC

    “My questions are more about whether he could actually deliver the plan”

    Don’t worry Alec.

    If they get in , it will happen-it’s what everything is about.-it’s 42.

    It will be transformational.

  28. George -you’re way behind mate! Look above at the previous posts! But you never know, AR may switch it all back again – astonishing incompetence!

  29. Angus Reid still doesn’t come onto my radar. However, it’s interesting yet another poll, very Con leading shows the Cons some way below 40%. Can’t understand his blind faith from some that the Cons will poll over 40%.

  30. I think that Anthony should name the next thread “Agnus Reid comes back to Earth”. Now it is finally in line with the other polsters, I think that we can now see a clearer picture. I wonder what has happened to Populus? I haven’t seen a poll from them in a while.

  31. I find this AR poll quite significant. A 9% Tory lead is the lowest I can remember for them & according to Anthony’s UNS projector, it would leave the Tories 21 short – a first for AR I think!

  32. Unbelievable set of figures. Is anyone getting their coat at AR?

  33. Poll alert
    Harris for Metro
    37/27/19
    +2/-1/-2

  34. p.s

    others 14
    Harris polled 1,133 people nationwide online between March 23 and 29.

  35. 27 is low for Labour?

  36. ”online between March 23 and 29.’

    Fieldwork is one week. Won’t it be a tad out of date, considering all the political events held since?

  37. Metro poll great news for the Cons. The lead on the way back up.
    As I said yesterday, own goal after own goal by Lab.
    Another GB Score in his own net today.
    Andrew Dismore , doing the same campaign to primary school children in London in the Local London press.
    Lab need to pull themselves together.

  38. AL J
    I ran the same AW prog and got 22 spooky.
    I am excited because of 2-2, not AR. great game.
    More significantly AL combined Lib Dem and Lab have 10 majority over Con. On a PR ticket the minor parties join in and perhaps extend it to 25 or 30.

  39. AJ
    I agree, but its not been a great couple of days for Lab, so not sure if it will go up.
    Could be wrong.

  40. Lib Dem figure for Harris is actually +2, poll taken 23-29 March. However Metro says cons would have majority of 12 but then lists them on 322 seats, which is surely just short of a majority on a U.N.S. anyway.

    It would appear that the Tories have a bit of momentum at the moment, though maybe more to do with Labour losing ground, think the AR change more to with methodology and they are probably more reliable now.

    Things could change round again of course and I would expect the Liberal Democrats to move up a bit in once the campaign gets underway, they gained some confidence from the Chancellor debate.

  41. Heard Jack Straw today on 5Live on way to work down in London. Interesting that he basically admitted it would be difficult for a PM to continue in place with no or little moral authoirty in hung parliament. i.e. legitimatelly they can form a Govt, but another party & leader has won more seats.

    I agreed with him.

  42. Howard

    Do you ever get the feeling – it’s all a dream? :-) lol

  43. HARRIS METRO JUST DECLARED

    CON 37
    LAB 27
    LIB 19

  44. @Woodsman.

    If others are 13, this only adds up to 97.

  45. I’ve broken my rule and looked at PB. The explanation of AR’s method change flabbergasts me. They were not doing that already? I assume YouGov doesn’t call London an homogenous area?

  46. What time is the yougov poll due?

  47. Those in the know, AW, Mike Smithson, Sean Fear, all good examples have predicted a closing of ranks nearer the election.
    We are now getting sensible polling figures all within MOE and method rather than the Tory lead 2 and Tory lead 18 of a few weeks ago. Before the usual nonsensical crowing sets of lets realise that these results in the range 7 to 10 ONS is Tory outright win country. One cannot disregard the marginals and the small but effective bonus they give the Conservatives. Now Tories can stop knocking YG and Labourites can stop knocking AR. Thank God.

  48. Wolf MacNeill
    That is your opinion. This site deals in data and its intrerpretation. You overlooked to mention either in this case.

    Quite so. I consider my wrist firmly smacked and will try harder to eschew partisanship.

  49. More bad news for Brown I am afraid. This on the BBC now.

    Prime Minister Gordon Brown has acknowledged that he “misused” immigration figures, after being criticised by the statistics watchdog.

  50. Anyone got the yougov for tonight?

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