Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The lead remains at seven points and there is clearly no significant change from yesterday. The increased Tory lead post budget does seem to be genuine, though as I said yesterday, we can’t tell if it will last.

While they are up one there is no vast Lib Dem boost from the Chancellors’ debate, though I as I said yesterday, it wouldn’t necessarily show up until tomorrow. Personally I doubt there will be – the media coverage this morning wasn’t particularly substantial and already seems to have moved on to Tony Blair’s speech and elderly care. The main leader debates are far more likely to impact the campaign.


483 Responses to “Daily YouGov poll – 38/31/19”

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  1. If the GE gets put off I’ll eat my sofa.
    If not, I think it will prove that at least one of your assumptions about GB is wrong Roland

  2. @Sue Marsh

    “I think it would be outrageous if a party that one a 6th of the seats of the main party”

    Well Clegg wouldn’t be able to make that demand anyway, having explicitly made the point that he is not the kingmaker. There is no way the Labour party would let itself be dictated to like that.

    But what has the proportion of seats got to do with it? We all know our electoral system is a shabby stitch up. The Lib Dems had two thirds of the votes of Labour at the last election. If they get close to that again, yes they should have a significant voice, whatever our lottery of a system comes up with.

  3. @SUE MARSH
    I am sure you wont remember Sue, but a couple of weeks ago when things were not all roses for the Tories, I said outright win or stuff it. Letting the LDs look important should not be part of the Tory plan. If we cannot beat Brown without the LDs we dont deserve to win.

  4. I’m still pretty sure the GE would not be put back to June, right in the middle of a school holiday, when for many it is the only time they can afford to go abroad – it’s too expensive in the summer.
    Those in that bracket would probably be mainly Labour voters.

    Can anyone tell me if an general election has ever been held during a school holiday period ?

  5. @ANDREW HOLDEN
    I do agree Andrew there are good reasons not to hang on, but unless the polls say otherwise Mr Brown will go the full distance in the hope that “something will turn up”.

  6. Tonights You-Gov…………..

    C 39
    L 29
    LD20

    Don’t panic……….it’s my guess. :-)

  7. @KEN
    I have mean’t to thank you for your reworked YG polls. They are interesting and do put things on a level field for comparison.

  8. No Andrew. As you rightly said last night, Brown needs the turnout. I think he will go to the Palace this week or next. I think it will be next and about time too I might add. I have been waiting for an election since June 2007! Brown certainly is a master of suspence!.

  9. @Eoin Clarke

    I’ve always made it clear I am ABTT and think GB,AD and Mandy are OK. That doesnt mean everyone who disagrees is mad.
    But this is a site about polling not rubbishing the other side or stating opinion as fact. I wish people could be a bit more objective.

  10. Ken. As it is April Fools day, I think we should predict figures of 25/43/25! Now that would be really entertaining.

  11. What a depressing guess Ken! I would much prefer to see 36, 33, 21!!

  12. @ROLAND HAINES……………..Roland, I really can’t claim all the credit for the prescience of my polls, I must also acknowledge the role played by my teapot ! :-)

  13. Mike N

    “Immigration is an issue for the electorate. One which can be highly emotive.”

    Yes but it isn’t all one way. In Labour strongholds in England, “Immigraton” loses votes to the advantage of the BNP.

    In Labour strongholds in Gasgow, Labour’s (UKBA) treatment of asylum seekers children loses them votes to the advantage of the Socialists, Greens and SNP.

    Anthony

    If you have any influence with YouGov, see if you can get any action on this:

    Yougov only asks if immigration is important to you or if you approve of the governments record and so lumps both groups together.

    So whether you are ashamed to be British because of the fact that agents of the state in body armour formerly broke down doors in dawn raids to take Scottish schoolchildren from their beds and take them – still in their pyjamas – to a jail prior to deporting them, or whether you are a member of the BNP, you have to give YouGov the same answer.

  14. Angus reids out and there seems to be a surge in lib dem support

    Cons: 39
    Lab: 27
    Lib: 23

  15. Just to give u the changes

    Cons:39 (no change)
    Lab: 27 (+1)
    Lib: 21 (+2)

  16. @Roland Haines.

    I can’t agree.
    The campaign has already been going on for months, I don’t think the public could stomach a further 2 months !

    To me, the definite downsides of a delay far outweigh the slim possibilty of any upside.

  17. Steady as she goes with AR, bit of a Vince bounce, but no real change, Labour a bit lower than I would expect, but I guess they will drift South as campaigning gets going anyway.

  18. And now Brown has been forced to admit that he ‘misused’ migration statistics. That can’t be good for Labour’s election chances.

  19. Regarding latest AR. Others take a big hit which give the LDs a boost. Lab pick up 1 point. New geographic system now used.

  20. AR’s poll raiting for labour is starting to get in line with the other pollsters. Its still a bit low but its only off 1 point from opinium and harris. According to political betting theres been a bit of change in their methadology that may account for that.

  21. Who was it mentioned convergence last week?

    Are they all going to meet ICM in the middle?

    Only 5% separates all polls….

  22. I believe that equals the lowest Tory lead that Angus Reid have had in the last 6 months or so they have been polling.
    It is also the highest rating they have given Labour in the same period.

  23. Of course remember Roland, and I thought it was a very reasonable thing to say. I wasn’t stirring the pot about the LibDems, I just think if GB wins more seats than the Tories after being SO far behind, he’ll have earned the right to stay. A third party shouldn’t have the right to dictate that.

  24. Regarding the AR poll – Are the figures 39/27/23 (as per Rob’s first post) or 39/27/21 (as per his second)? 23% would really push the LIbDem’s into a new range.

  25. Polly Ticks

    I am still un-decided, but you are right I am leaning or starting to think about who I’ll vote for…..

    ———

    You are only undecided whether to vote at the polling booth or by postal ballot. Pull the other one, Polly.

  26. Neil –

    39 / 27 / 23

  27. Sue Marsh
    Of course remember Roland, and I thought it was a very reasonable thing to say. I wasn’t stirring the pot about the LibDems, I just think if GB wins more seats than the Tories after being SO far behind, he’ll have earned the right to stay. A third party shouldn’t have the right to dictate that.

    ———

    Sue, at the end of the day, this is politics ! Lib Dems or the other minor parties will extract their pound of flesh. And there is nothing wrong with that. Why shouldn’t they have policies implemented which they have fought for over many years ? It is simply a question which of Labour or Conservative can accommodate those wishes. I still think Labour would still be more able to accept some of the Lib Dem demands than the Tories’ could. I really don’t think parties’ ultimately choose on the basis of leaders. After all no one is entering into a coalition with the BNP.

  28. AW Earlier i posted a comment which was immediately ‘snatched’ into moderation. I suspected thus some automatic program but looking at the post I could see nothing peculiar except the use of the euro sign (not using that now!). Is that why it is there? I could not see anything else that could provoke automated dismay. It’s still there.

  29. Rob Hist
    AR’s poll raiting for labour is starting to get in line with the other pollsters. Its still a bit low but its only off 1 point from opinium and harris. According to political betting theres been a bit of change in their methadology that may account for that.

    ——————-

    Out in the hysterical world of PB, there will be no ranting about this major methodological change. After all, YouGov is not doing it. Simply put, the change has reduced the number of Tories, hence the rise of Labour and Lib Dems. Remember they still use 2005 recall without adjustment. Hence, Liberal votes will be over-weighted and Labour under as no adjustment is done for all those Labour voters who voted Lib Dem due to Iraq.

  30. It has always been my argument that these range of poll disagree much less than we suppose..

    I have tried the MoE arguement but by and large have failed.

    What must stand above all else is the remarkable closeness the pollsters are on the Tory lead. It is clear for all to see that it is 38.5%….

    no one, as far as I know, has reached a consensus on the labour share of the vote…

    common sense tells me it is 30%+

  31. Angus Reid: gap between Lab and LD = 4%.
    Latest YouGov: gap between Lab and LD = 12%.

    Bit of a disagreement there.

  32. Angus Reid also appears to finally have sorted its “others” issue out, though god knows how….

    others are on 11% this is now in line with other pollsters…

    I would speculate that the liberals 23% is fairly accurate, and has been at the expense of the labour vote.

    We know that labour took at hit last week say 2%? given that AR has them up 1%, perhaps prior poll on thi snew methodology they would have had them at 29% (speculation I know) but it would certainly look a much more credible pre budget rating than the 26%

  33. EOIN:

    If you search google for “LSE elections’ you will get some info about London School of Economics election poll of polls which uses what they call median smoothing for the individual parties which seems to match what you have been saying.

    Their current prediction upto last night (excluding current Angus Reid) is
    CON 38, Lab 31, Lib 19

  34. One of the most important questions is whether Lab and LD voters will continue to vote tactically to keep the Tories out in marginal constituencies. The polls seem to show the effect won’t be as large this time as in the last few elections but it could still be an important factor.

  35. @ash,

    thanks for that… others on 12% seems a teeny bit high and libs on 19 seems a teeny bit low but they have labour and tory exactly how i would see them.

    we are seeing tentaitve evidence in last nights YouGov and today’s AR that labour’s slip in the poll has steadied.

    With AR showing a +1,

    Dont be surprised if tonight shows a +2 for labour in YG. If this is at the expense of 1% Tory we could see the lead cut to 4%…

    Poor George, a perfectly well coordinated announcement (whether you agree or disagree with it) has been drowned out by an quasi messianic-oil magnate.

  36. Thank you Anthony

    Rule 49 :-The moderator may then open the discussion to free debate between the leaders for up to 4 minutes on merit.

    Thats encouraging.

  37. ANTHONY
    THanks for the link to the debate rules :-

    Rule 49:-
    “The moderator may then ( after the resonses)open the discussion to free debate between the leaders for up to 4 minutes on merit. ”

    Looks encouraging.

  38. So then…For GB to get the immigration figures wrong doesn’t bode well really. I fail to see with all that’s gone on recently how he or his advisors can let this happen again….will if be put down to “another mistake” ?

    And Surbiton..I’m not bothered if you believe mo or not really…I know and that’s enough. :-)

  39. PAUL H-J – I apologize sincerely for misrepresenting your views. I have always found your contributions interesting. and am glad you are back commenting on this site. Once again, sorry.

  40. SUE -Immigration.

    The ONS net inward migration figures 1997-2008 are 2.38 million.

    This data excludes inward asylum after entering UK, short term visitors granted extensions of stay & net movements with IR.

    At present I can only find breakdown by country of origin for 1997 to 2005.
    To save a long colum of numbers the broad analysis was, for that period :-

    EU :-5%
    Commonwealth:- 48% ( mostly Pak/Ind-Austr/NZ was net out )
    MIddle East :-7%
    “Others” :- 40% ( Africa, , Iran etc)

  41. ANGUS REID JUST DECLARED.

    CON 39
    LAB 27
    LIB 23

  42. Polly
    Bias revealed again I am afraid – we’ve rumbled the ploy but who are you hoping to coinvince?.

    I thought the difference bewteeen 337000 and 330000 to be angels dancing and funnily enough Phil Woolas used the same expression later on C4. But it’s dog whistle time I am afraid. The question is – it didn’t work last time will it work this time? AR poll indicates not but was carried out before the immigration GB speech.

  43. @matt,

    If the tories and labour both got 34% of the vote, the labour would probably lead them by 90+ seats.

  44. @EOIN CLARKE
    Poor George indeed, he is very probably going to be the next chancellor.

  45. On the “High Offices of State” programme about the Home Office, John Reid said that it was really hard work getting hard info from the civil servants about asylum seekers still in process. He had to play a guessing game along the lines of “Is it 50,000?”, ” No, more” on & on, until he found out it was almost 500,000. It made me wonder whether this sort of dissembling over unwelcome stats is common.

    I was horrified by the whole programme, I must confess.

  46. @Derek,

    The last time I flew from Belfast to London, not one person checked my identification at either a)Ni b)London…

    therefore if I landed in Dublin (ROI) and travelled north… I could set up life in London, quite easily with nobody knowing…

    I am a fan of statistics, love em in fact but immigration stats are balderdash

  47. Sorry, I will be accused of dancing on pins now. The figures were GB 337000, Stats chief 333000. Apparently they were revised later. And we discuss here about 33% to 34%.
    Hah!

  48. Howard..

    there is NO bias and I have revealed nothing. Sue makes good and bad points about her party and about the Tories. I think you have read me wrong…I am leaning if you must know toward…. go on then…guess.?

  49. @Derek,

    The same goes for stena line boats. I have travelled to Celtic matches in Glasgow for years and never once has identification been requested.

    So any North Africans out there listening……… fly to Dublin and catch a bus to Belfast :)

  50. @DEREK PIERSON
    Well of course Derek it is this kind of thing which makes some of us uncontrolable with anger. The potential damage to this country caused by such a situation is just totally unacceptable.
    In addition the scope for terrorism is made very very easy just because of the scale of the chaos.

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