Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The lead remains at seven points and there is clearly no significant change from yesterday. The increased Tory lead post budget does seem to be genuine, though as I said yesterday, we can’t tell if it will last.

While they are up one there is no vast Lib Dem boost from the Chancellors’ debate, though I as I said yesterday, it wouldn’t necessarily show up until tomorrow. Personally I doubt there will be – the media coverage this morning wasn’t particularly substantial and already seems to have moved on to Tony Blair’s speech and elderly care. The main leader debates are far more likely to impact the campaign.


483 Responses to “Daily YouGov poll – 38/31/19”

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  1. Brown’s best tactic would be to avoid talking about immigration, let alone attacking the Conservatives over it.

    The Conservatives have a massive lead over Labour on this issue, and pushing it up the agenda can only hurt Labour.

  2. Mike N –

    I don’t think GB has the remotest idea just how deeply the electorate feels about Labour’s allowing/fostering current levels of immigration, despite the express and repeated wishes of the population to the contrary.

    If DC can show the composure to address this calmly and clearly -by announcing a commitment to an immediate annual limit (with figure specified) and a pledge, should a Conservative Government be elected, to set up a review body with the express brief of considering UK population levels, for example – and the courage to face down the accusations of ‘racism’ (which assuredly this is not) with which some would undoubtedly attempt to smear him, then he would reap very great benefits indeed in terms of support.

    It’s whether he has it in him though.

  3. SUE
    THe Mail.

    This is the Guardian :-
    ” “Prime Minister Gordon Brown warned political parties today against ‘scaremongering’ about immigration in the general election campaign. “

  4. Bill Roy – Interesting response, which if adopted by DC would not IMO be statesmanlike.

  5. Sean,

    Given that he is so far behind the Tories on immigration, and that is the number one reason the BNP is prospering, it is probably a last ditch attempt to claw some of it back.

    It is probably essential to his fortunes that he at least gives it a go.

    As you say, probably to no avail.

  6. Kyle Downing

    “So I take it that there is no “Blair Bounce”. I thought there would be a massive change in the polls when Blair appeared.”

    Why should it a bounce and not a dip?

    Mark Johnstone

    “I believe in the Union but as devolution has taken hold in EVERYWHERE except England the present system will eventually run its course anyway because English people will not tolerate much longer being told what it can and can’t do by the other 3 constituent countries of the UK when most of their Laws the English have no say what-so-ever!

    Can you see where I’m coming from Duncan?

    And further more it is starting to look like England will almost certainly vote Conservative on the 6th May but may actually end up with yet another Labour Government.”

    Please think about this. Did this problem concern you when Scotland had no Con MP’s – not one – or during the hatcher governments?

    Were you aware of this problem and did it seem unfair at the time? If not, think about how your comment above would read to someone in Scotland.

    You don’t have to frankly acknowledge to readers here, that you thought at the time that it was OK for Scotland to get Conservative governments, but please, please face up to the truth yourself. You can’t have it both ways.

    You believe in a Union. Fair enough. Then its all right for Scotland (which doesn’t need nuclear power) to have new nuclear power stations in areas of low population far from centres of population such as London where the power is needed.

    So you will willingly pay taxes to support uneconomic postal and transport infrastructure services in the highlands, won’t you?

    No? It must be Scotland’s oil then, and you are not a Unionist at all. You are a colonialist.

  7. MIKE N
    If I were DC I would ask Gordon Brown how he could bring himself and his party to deal with racist facist Tories. Some of whom had the affront to question Labours immigration policies over the last 13 years.

  8. @John B Dick,

    I was fighting a lone battle earlier but I think you outdone me comfortably. :)

  9. MIKEN

    “-how will DC respond? That is the point I’m making. This is an opportunity to show some statesman qualities perhaps?”

    Indeed.
    He did just that today in a Q&A session after his Big Society Speech.

    Calm & sensible-caps to bring the number down-less stress on Public Services & housing-linked to Welfare to work /training reforms to reduce the immigration demand push, and get more people back to work.

  10. Just as I suspected Colin!! Come now, when I start presenting the Mirror’s view as how something is received I’ll accept that one ;)

    I saw it on the news and the overall message was actually a pretty reasonable call for consensus. A good bit of electioneering, no more, no less. If DC refuses, he looks rabid, if he accepts, he is neutered on the issue.
    As for how it plays, as they all do.
    The left hear “Don’t be racist and vote Tory”
    The right hear “Ha! That’s rich, GB on immigration”
    The BNP hear **** off (and rightly so IMO)

    Where it plays is the UKIP vote so not so silly after all eh? Unless DC comes down hard on GB over this a few more leach away to UKIP. If he DOES come down hard, he opens himself to criticism from Libs and Lab for gladiator style politics.

    Oooooh, I love the game.

  11. Bill Roy – But some voters may actually want to see DC display statemanlike qualities to encourage them to vote Con. A lack of it may deter them.

    I agree with Eoin that GB had to tackle this issue before the GE campaign.

    This issue is a double-edged sword, of course.

  12. SUE

    I really don’t see it as Hard vs Soft, or gladiator vs whatever.

    Nor does Cameron.

    It’s just another socio-economic problem which has to be dealt with.

    Its easy -once you remove the PC censorship of the “racist” slur & the tension & emotion which that generated ( to the enormous advantage of the BNP)

    ….then you can just discuss the facts as they are known & analysed. That obviously produces differing solutions & preferences-that’s politics.

  13. @SUE MARSH
    Oh great, having been called racists for lacking any confidence in Labour immigration policies for 13 years we now must agree with Gordy and be neutered or disagree and be members of the NAZI party. Sue, you must remember the 3rd way.

  14. ‘If DC can show the composure to address this calmly and clearly -by announcing a commitment to an immediate annual limit ‘

    On what? ‘Immigration’ is not specific. He can’t touch EU existing agreements (majority of Lab right wing voters complaints) which is what GB referred to.
    Racist /cultural objection to immigration is another subject entirely.
    The scope for dog whistle politics, is, as Sue points out, huge. DC can say, does say, more or less a watered down version of the quote above, but knows it will be interpreted as doing something about that which nothing can be done anything about.

  15. An aspect of immigration that perhaps is overlooked is that we have people entering the UK legally because for example they are EU nationals. This cannot be blocked without bringing the UK into conflict with the EU.

    Others may be entitled to enter the UK legally for various reasons, including being a holder of a British passport or the spouse of a UK citizen. Will the right of these to enter the UK be curtailed? I recall many UK citizens were only able to bring their spouses into the UK following 1997. . Another reason is that they be able to enter the UK is under one of the five points based tiers which is in operation now in the UK and which pretty much mirrors that operated in Australia.

    An annual quota system IMHO is inappropriate.

  16. Eoin: It’s true that on 6-Apr-05 when the election was called the WMA LLead was just 1, but a month earlier it had been 6. 9 days into the campaign the WMA LLead went back to 5 and stayed thereabouts (6-4) until polling day when it was 5. The actual LLead was 3.

    However this was Blair vs Howard. Blair had a much higher personal approval rating than Howard, was far more telegenic, agile and had far more money.

  17. MIKEN

    “An aspect of immigration that perhaps is overlooked is that we have people entering the UK legally because for example they are EU nationals. This cannot be blocked without bringing the UK into conflict with the EU. ”

    Of course it isn’t overlooked.

    Every one who has taken the trouble to actually look at UK net inward migration stats by country knows that the vast majority of the nearly 2 million net entrants during Labours term of office have been from outside the EU.

  18. NBeale,

    And that lead of 1% was heavily affected by a rogue poll from MORI that put the Conservatives 5% ahead.

  19. Colin – there are immigration controls in place. Go to the UKBA website and read the detail.

    And frankly you’re missing the point of my first post which is that this is perhaps a test for DC.

    GB has it seems made a strong statement today on the issue. It may even lose Lab votes. But he has shown leadership, IMO.

  20. Bill Roy – “As to bringing us into conflict with the EU – I see no problem with that”

    Do you not see how dangerous this immigration issue is for the Cons?

  21. At the start of the 1992 campaign there were some polls showing the LDs low,
    Harris contradicting themselves with a 14% and I think an 18/19%.

    The LD (GB) result of 18.3% was below
    both
    i) the average and
    ii) a clear majority
    of all the polls taken in the last 16 days of the 1992 campaign.

    There is every prospect of them being squeezed by Conservatives and Labour in the last two weeks this time aswell.
    A closely fought election close to a recession, with people forming a view about the government.

  22. Bill Roy – setting aside your highly partisan comments, I recommend your visit the UKBA website and read extensive details on immigration controls. You might learn something about what has been in place under this Gov.

  23. Shorley we do not need any more immigration from outside the Eu? Shorley we can find skilled workers from inside the EU and therefore do not need any more immigration from other areas. But I a can only wait for people to now call me a racist so bring it on.

  24. Adam – amongst other things the UK’s points based system allows UK employers to sponsor workers from outside the EU to work in the UK. To do so there are several criteria that must be met.

    I sugegst you visit the UKBA website and read the extensive material. I think you’ll be surprised at the extent of the controls in place.

  25. This is not the place for an argument about immigration, and no comment accusing any party of lying is going to be seen as non-partisan.

  26. On a lighter note.

    Anthony, are we due any poll other than the daily YouGov this evening, if so, from whom?

  27. The best way for DC to deal with GB’s challenge on immigration is to review it after the election , when, of course he has access to the real figures, not the spun ones issued by a disfuctional civil service.

  28. On an unrelated topic,

    I see YouGov are pretty proud of you Anthony. Big picture and a plug on the YouGov website. Now we know what you look like… ;)

  29. @CAP’N SCOOBY………………Blimey Cap’n, he was on telly on London Tonight after the budget, fine figure of a man if I may say ! Now Anthony, about those items of mine in moderation ! :-)

  30. When I return to this site after a couple of days, I make the mistake of reading the threads from the beginning. Trouble is, it becomes so wearisome reading all the partisan statements masquerading as fact that I give up pretty soon.

    Give it a rest guys or find some other site to air your prejudices

  31. Valerie

    Can I ask, do all your posts consist entirely of 100% non-partisan comments that are entirely about polls..?

    I’m just wondering…..

  32. ‘@VALERIE……………The site does reflect a diverse set of opinions, which can only be a healthy thing, and of course, there are some real experts to lead us into the world of polling enlightenment. Stick with it. :-)

  33. Anthony.

    You might want to view post 249 on PB,
    Svejk March 31st, 2010 at 4:22 pm

  34. @Sean: well the WMA LLead would have been 2 without it. The great thing about WMA is that, although it is influenced by all the polls, it is not over-influenced by any single poll.

    @Eoin: LibDem WMA went from 20 to 23 in the 2005 GE Campaign, and the actual vote was 22.

    BTW it looks from the Spread Betting as if Ed Balls is in trouble. This might explain why Brown has suddenly come to the immigration issue.

  35. Sorry Roland, that’s just how it is ;)

  36. @Sue Marsh – “Very good point about Cameron’s live Q&As up and down the country. I believe they’ve been very successful and probably one of his best tactics to date.”
    Interesting you should say that. A few weeks ago I saw an a feature on this (newsnight I think) and while it clearly wasn’t a scientific sample the three undecided voters they interviewed after seeing one of these sessions all said that while he had been very pleasant and nice, nne of them came away knowing what he stood for and none of them had decided to vote for him.

  37. Ken “The best way for DC to deal with GB’s challenge on immigration is to review it after the election , when, of course he has access to the real figures, not the spun ones issued by a disfuctional civil service.”

    You might be right about this, but I imagine if DC adopts this approach some people with think he is dodging the issue.

    Immigration is an issue for the electorate. One which can be highly emotive.

    How the issue will play in the polls and GE campaign I have no idea.

  38. NBeale..

    Why would Ed Balls be in trouble..?

  39. In 2005 the Tories averaged 4.2% swing in the top 108 target seats (including the 31 they won), whilst the average swing in the top 108 seats they were defending was just 2.9%, Overall UNS was 3.1% for the election. This sort of indicates that the Tories may do up to 30% better in the marginals than the UNS if history repeats itself. On the swingometre, this would put the Tories on 349, a comfortable majority. There are however so many local factors being played out I will not be putting money on it!

    I wonder if (having stated that he would require GB to resign to form any coalition with Labour) Nick Clegg would make a comment about Osborne in the same scenario. Is a Cameron – Cable dream ticket at all a possibility under such circumstances?

  40. Colin – Do you have a breakdown of how many of those migrants were economic and how many were asylum seekers? Thanks

    Re The thread – I personally find it fascinating catching up with the comments and find many many very informative and intelligent.

  41. The immigration debate gone?………. phew!

    I can return (to groans all round)

    @ NBeale

    Are the underpresented Tories either a) shy tories? or b) since they are underrepresented in % terms more as a result of low labour turn out?

    People who live in short term tennacies, struggle to get onto the electoral roll. They also struggle ot get bank accounts etc…. Overall, poverty affects their chances of ever fulfilling active citizenship. It is a pretty sad affair. But I think it contributes to an over-representation of Labour vote. Also using schools as polling booths means they are off school. Thus, some single mothers do not make it ot polling booths due to childcare problems. This is also a rather sad affair.

    @Valerie,

    Is there nay particular aspect of polling that interests you? I am a geek and thus happy to discuss the vagrancies of AR/ ICM etc…

  42. @SUE
    Dont be sorry, because it ain’t gonna happen. That is what I mean about a 3rd way. We are not about to fall into the kind of clumsy traps that dominate Scottish Labour.

  43. SUE

    Colin – Do you have a breakdown of how many of those migrants were economic and how many were asylum seekers? Thanks”

    They excluded asylum seekers so far as I remember.
    I got the data from UK Stats & tabled it all out by country for a previous ding-dong on the topic.
    Chucked the piece of paper away-now I can’t find the data set again-they have so much stuff on there.

    Will try again this evening -& keep it this time!

    RE the debates-I read that the Chair will not be able to prompt debate between the three. If I’ve understood it correctly that is not a good sign.

    atb

  44. The Nick Clegg issue is interesting because he has already stated that GB would have to go, and the masses seem to want Cable as the next Chancellor. (He can’t really insist now that GB AND Darling resign!)
    Given that Osborne is the weakpoint in the Tory attack, a clear statement that a coalition govt with the Tories would involve Cable as Chancellor would go down a storm with the electorate, because that I think is what the country wants the outcome actually to be.
    Perhaps the subject for another thread!

  45. @MIKE N…………..You’re quite right about the perception that Cammo might be dodging the issue, but I’ve always thought that blaming the other side for masking the true figures is a good strategy since most people think that incumbents are not to be trusted on stats. ‘When we get in, we’ll look at the books to find out the true state of affairs’, plays well to the gallery. And, of course, long term governments have always got form on cooking the books.

  46. Colin – here are the agreed rules for the leaders debates

    http://www1.sky.com/news/Format.doc

    David in Oxford – I don’t think Clegg has actually stated that, it’s been reported that he thinks that, but all sorts of often mutually exclusive things have been reported about what they think. I think the only statements he has made in public are the ambiguous one about the party that gets the most support having a mandate, and to set out the four policy areas they would negotiate on.

  47. WRT Clegg and a coaltion, I imagine he would want to be the senior Lib Dem within it, rather than handing that role to Cable.

  48. Anthony – Is that true? Do you mean Clegg hasn’t said GB has to go? I’d be extremely pleased if that was true, not just because of my views but I think it would be outrageous if a party that one a 6th of the seats of the main party made that kind of ultimatum.
    Is that what you were referring to?

  49. Sean
    Abroad often the person who leads his political group does not necessarily want to be COE or some such. but then in proper PR countries the actual post holders have to do what they’ve agreed to do in the coalition agreement. In NL there is a debate on raising the retirement age to 67. They have a similar debt over there (€29 billion) in proportion to the UK one. If the new Government (elections June) decides to go ahead with this policy, then the all political parties in Cabinet will be required to implement the policy. Watching their politics and ours is like watching the local pub football team against watching Arsenal.

  50. The media are keeping the hung parliament narrative going strong. However, if the Tories continue with their present progress there is no reason why hung parliaments should be considered. Browns personal popularity, or lack of it will make things very very tough for Labour to get a grip much greater than their present support level. If, as I personally expect the GE is put back to June the level of support Labour might expect will decrease. The silver spoon buffoon, George Osbourne, has already done his party a great service.

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