Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The lead remains at seven points and there is clearly no significant change from yesterday. The increased Tory lead post budget does seem to be genuine, though as I said yesterday, we can’t tell if it will last.

While they are up one there is no vast Lib Dem boost from the Chancellors’ debate, though I as I said yesterday, it wouldn’t necessarily show up until tomorrow. Personally I doubt there will be – the media coverage this morning wasn’t particularly substantial and already seems to have moved on to Tony Blair’s speech and elderly care. The main leader debates are far more likely to impact the campaign.


483 Responses to “Daily YouGov poll – 38/31/19”

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  1. Colin – Very good point about Cameron’s live Q&As up and down the country. I believe they’ve been very successful and probably one of his best tactics to date. “Call me Dave” excels at the shirt sleeves, smiley type of format.

    Where I disagree is the format he’ll face during the leader debates. It will be dry and sterile, millions will be watching which will constrain him from being as relaxed and honest. If he sticks with the “attack GB” policy I don’t feel it will go down well at all – the chancellors were very gentlemanly and many commented that they liked it.
    During the debates he will have to take the podium as a prospective leader – statesmanlike, reasonable, capable, well argued. They’ll be his last chance and he’ll HAVE to be ready.

  2. @SUE MARSH……….Sue, you make a good point. I vote Lib-Dem for two reasons, (a) brilliant MP Simon Hughes (b) to keep Labour out. I think Lib-Dems are good locally because they don’t have aspirations beyond that. If they achieved more success, would the distractions of real-politic mitigate against their local efforts, thus causing tactical voters like me to vote Tory, and what would be the impact of that ?

  3. Matt

    I think the Tories will get a majority – but would it be a very good move on their part if they did NOT change the boundaries and just focus on the economy, education, health etc and all the things a government SHOULD focus on ie rather than doing everything possible to alter things so that they remain in power?

    The psychology here is that the public would see something different – they may actually take against the Tories if they see them doing everything possible just to keep power, but favour them if they see them throw down the guantlet by ignoring the boundaries and keeping them as they are.

    Yes, I am probably living in phantasy land here and be informed as such…………

  4. Don’t-Tell-Em-Pike – I don’t know about GBs “unpopularity”. Maggie was unpopular, but she kept winning elections. Much as it pains me to say it, I think it’s because voters saw her as the best woman for the job. They didn’t have to like her to agree with her (even if they did so grudgingly, secretly)
    Finally, forget the rest of the country for a minute, if GB manages to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat or even achieves a hung parliament that gives Labour a fourth term, he will go from loser to hero overnight amongst Labour faithful. He won’t be going anywhere.

  5. Mitz,

    What makes you think the Telegraph is encouraging people to vote Tory anyway ? You clearly haven’t been keeping up with its editorial / comment pages in recent years.

    The Guardian sees itself as the spirtual champion of the left and hence criticises New Labour for being too timid. The Telegraph likewise criticises the current Conservative leadership from the right.

    It carries far more attacks on Cameron than it ever does on Brown, and its blogs are heavily populated by UKIP and BNP. If the polls point to a hung parliament on polling day, then its leader may swing behind Cameron, but if Tories were to have a double digit lead – especially if it is the eens – I bet the Telegraph will back UKIP to ensure Cameron is constrained to support their “purist” agenda.

  6. Polly, Polly, Polly,”I don’t believe TB would destroy DC in a TV debate at all. DC has his faults but he is learning quickly and I think he’d more than hold his own…just my opinion.” Even DC believes this according to many many private and public sources. Both he and GO considered TB “Unbeatable”.
    You’re really not un-decided, jump in with both feet, the water’s fine!

    *Please note everyone me persuading someone they ought to vote with their heart even if it IS Tory (Joke AW)

  7. Mea Culpa for an inaccurate assumption regarding the Telegraph Paul.

  8. @Sue

    A very well put point. Likeability is a commodity. There’s a job to do. Voter’s in times of crisis clear focus on the latter… DC should sell his case that also leads brown on getting the job done.

    Gorodn Brown’s position in Labour has proably never been more secure, now that the Blair wing of the party is in disrepute.

  9. @SUE MARSH…………….Sue, you are bang on the money with your analysis of the debate context. My view is that the environment doesn’t suit Gordon’s style, Cammo, Cammo, Cammo, Cammo, Cammo chameleon ! Better suited perhaps? :-)

  10. SUE
    Thanks

    Yes-format is going to be key-& chairmanship.

    Actually I,ve just watched DC’s Big Society speech live -and the brilliant Q&A session afterwards.

    For me this is what it’s all about-absolutely-it’s done me a power of good after all the economy stuff ;-).

    If DC can replicate half of this morning’s feeling of animation & optimism about engaging communities in their own destiny & harnessing the huge power of social enterprises, he will certainly make an impression in the first (ITV) debate.

    As you say, the format may make this difficult-but I expect he will find a way.

    I just wish that debate was the last of the three.

  11. At a joint press conference by the nationalist parties in London, they ruled out forming a formal coalition government at Westminster with Labour or the Conservatives.

    @Ken- you crack me up :) :)

  12. oooh, SNP and Plaid agree to come together as a block today in the event of a hung parliament with 4 main priorities. (Sorry I didn’t catch them in time to post, but will search google…….

  13. @COLIN………….Colin, don’t worry, the debating scenario suits Cammo, he is clear thinking and quick. Gordon needs notes and the last word, my view is that he will be uncomfortable and wooden without his props.

  14. Sue..I’d like to see where he says TB is “unbeatable” can you show me..? NO ONE is unbeatable….not even me !!! ;-)

    I am still un-decided, but you are right I am leaning or starting to think about who I’ll vote for….. :-)

  15. Both parties ruled out a coalition and agreed with policy by policy support.

  16. @Éoin…………….I even surprised myself with that one! –

  17. While we are on nationalists,

    Ulster Unionist MLA Alan McFarland has resigned from the party. Mr McFarland said he was uncomfortable with the electoral link-up the UUP entered into with the Conservative Party in 2008.
    This is now the second high profile resignation for the UU in a fortnight.

    Cameron has signed an electoral pact with a party who has no seats.

  18. Sue

    another thought-of course the questions will be the key element.

    All the talk will be constrained by the agenda dictated by the questions ( & the chair)

    And they are being chosen by some panel (s) or other.

    Worries me a bit-but it is those panels who are writing the Debate Scripts.

  19. Sue

    Basically SNP and PC want more money for Scotland and Wales.

  20. The BBC report on the SNP & PC position suggests they’re taking a pork barrel approach to a possible hung Parliament.

  21. Ha Ha – GB just called for a consensus on immigration and announced a marked drop in immigration.

    Bit of manoeuvring in time for the debates I think?

  22. Sorry to break up the Lib Dem love ins on these opinion poll threads,
    but why is it taken as a given that LD support will necessarily rise as a result of this excessive coverage they get (in relation to their size),
    or that Cable necessarily came over well in the C4 debate?

    Look at the closely fought General Election of 1992, and how the public seemed to tire of the LDs constant demands and revert to predominantly two party politics at the end.

  23. @Eoin Clarke

    If you choose to believe the Kevin McGuire drivel that the Tories need a 10-11 point lead to secure a small overall majority that is up to you.
    Your opinion is no more important than anybody else’s.
    You are quick to dismiss anyone who believes a 7 point lead will be enough, but having read your past posts it is my opinion that your knowledge on the subject is,at best, limited.
    Your left leaning bias is a little tiresome.

  24. @ Joe James B

    “or that Cable necessarily came over well in the C4 debate?”

    Because he got top marks in C4s vote-because the audience cheered everything he said-because the Press said he won ?

    …..but I still think your’s is a very good question. ;-)

  25. Civil servants to ‘help’ parties in NOC situation

    I was amused to read of this. So now the Sir Humphreys will not only dictate to who wins power but also decide who wins it!

    Have contributors considered that the likely outcome of a FPTP election this time will be the end of FPTP?

    Many defenders of British FPTP say that ‘the people usually get it right’. Intuitively, this seems unlikely, but actually, taken the long term, it does seem broadly true (at least since universal suffrage).

    But I still want PR – do forgive me.

  26. @POLLY TICKS
    Mr Blair is certainly not unbeatable in debate. Both William Hague and Michael Howard had him by the troat at PMQ on many occasions. Mr Blairs famous description of Gordon Brown, “the big clunking fist” slamming the boy David into the decking just has not happened at PMQ. Cameron has come of best about 80% of the time, perhaps more. PMQ is not TV but I dont see any reason why Brown will suddenly improve over night to handle Cameron. Certainly, answering every question Lord Ashcroft, and quoting dodgy statistics which have to be retracted the next day is not going to turn a 7 to 9 point lead, with a touch more in the marginals in Labours direction.

  27. @ SUE

    “GB just called for a consensus on immigration and announced a marked drop in immigration.

    Bit of manoeuvring in time for the debates I think?”

    The BNP are not in the debates Sue.

  28. “I am still un-decided, but you are right I am leaning or starting to think about who I’ll vote for….. :-)”

    Me too. I will change my vote on the last election (Green Party). Problem is that I live in an extremely safe Tory vote – so my vote won’t affect the outcome of the election.

    To be honest, my vote won’t be based on a strong belief in the party’s policies – merely voting for who I think will make the least worst government.

  29. Colin – I totally agree that this is DCs finest policy idea. Even I love it and have actually been arguing for years that we should do the same thing. THIS is the stuff DC should focus on and it is a message I think resonates brilliantly with the public. I’d like to see the speech, I wonder if I can get it anywhere?

    There is a problem for DC with this one though, an iceberg and he MUST address it before the media pick it up

  30. @matt,

    Enrole in a college course in a marginal and vote there.

  31. Roland
    I think you are right in signalling GB’s danger field. it’s his temperament. He considers his two opponents lightweight and makes the mistake of showing it. I thought AD’s smirk on the sideways shots I saw of the excerpts of Monday’s programme were as damaging as GO’s flush of arrogance at the end.

    But we don’t really know if the Debates really will be Events – if like Monday, no swing voter will watch.

    .

  32. @Danny Boy,

    I respect your views danny :)

    Try the daily telegraph’s swingometer it is very rigorous.

  33. SUE
    ” I totally agree that this is DCs finest policy idea. Even I love it and have actually been arguing for years that we should do the same thing. ”

    I can’t find a video.

    If you Google a bit you will find the text etc-but you need to see the Q&A at the end if poss.

    Anyway-you’ve made my morning………………….but what Iceberg?

  34. So, GB is seeking consensus on immigration? If DC agrees (big IF, of course) this would lead to the issue being sort of neutered , and if he doesn’t joe-public will perceive him as bigoted. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t. I may of course be wrong, but a testing issue for DC perhaps?

  35. Eoin, ‘ Enrol in a marginal’

    That’s what my son has done in reverse. He’s kept his vote in the LD /Con marginal and not enrolled in the now LD /Lab marginal. It’s the ABT syndrome.

  36. @Howard,

    very sensible. As long as he doesnt multiple vote there is no harm. If the Tories were more tactical with registration the would quickly make up the numbers. University of Nottigham had a high portion of tory leaning students. I’d imagine Yourk, Durham, Wariwck and Edinburgh would be in a similar vein.

  37. @ Polly Ticks – Hard to give a link to something like that, but try yesterdays wintourandwatt blog in the Guardian for a starter.

  38. how can i log in to this dialogue in the normal way with my code?

  39. ANTHONY – Instead of this CAPTCHA stuff i mean

  40. On immigration I have only one thing to say. (phew says Colin)

    Tolerance is not the belief that we can all get along and perhaps share common values.

    Tolerance in the true sense of Voltaire is the celebration of all of ours differences.

    It would be a sad day for culture if the aspiration became that we should all integrate….

  41. MIKEN
    “So, GB is seeking consensus on immigration”

    Oh really-have you seen the reports?

    This is one :-

    “In a highly-political speech devoid of policy, the Prime Minister condemned the Conservatives for appealing to the ‘worst instincts of nationalism and xenophobia’.
    He attacked plans for an annual cap on the numbers of foreigners flooding into Britain, backed by 80 per cent of voters, as ‘arbitrary and unworkable’.
    Mr Brown admitted public concern over the effect of migrants on job prospects, lifestyle and frontline services was ‘legitimate’.

    But he insisted Labour’s points-based system which restricts access to non-EU workers with key skills was ‘fair and controlled’ and the right way forward.
    The Prime Minister opened himself up to claims of hypocrisy by insisting people should not be allowed to make unsubstantiated claims about migration”

  42. Eoin Student vote

    It is surprising in some ways although my experience is that the little darlings are rushed home to vote in the Lib Dem / Con marginals (ergo my son’s decision). I had genuinely no idea how many rich young people existed until my son went up to Bristol (red brick – my eye – more Bath stone). Included Blair’s offspring of course. Bristol central seats boundary changes are disadvantageous to Con.

  43. Name your source Colin!!!

  44. @ Joe James B

    ‘Look at the closely fought General Election of 1992, and how the public seemed to tire of the LDs constant demands and revert to predominantly two party politics at the end.’

    Not correct. The Liberal Democrats had been running in mid to low teens in the polls in the months leading up to the end of ’91. In 92 they climbed, finishing at 17.8%. In April, the Lib Dem figure jumped around, from 17 to one poll at 22. However, we do of course know that the pollsters overestimated Labour and the Lib Dems and underestimated the Conservatives so the final result so well within the MoE for the pollsters. In other words absolutely no evidence of ‘voters tiring of the Lib Dems.’

  45. Colin -how will DC respond? That is the point I’m making. This is an opportunity to show some statesman qualities perhaps?

  46. ROLAND

    Thanks.

    I just wonder what a public ,who have consistently placed excessive inward migration & the stresses which it engenders, in the top group of their concerns; will make of this ,from a PM whose party told them for 13 years that these feelings were “racist”:-

    “Mr Brown admitted public concern over the effect of migrants on job prospects, lifestyle and frontline services was ‘legitimate’.”

    I mean how many eleventh hour, Damascene conversions , on this road to the New Jerusalem does he need to make before someone says-well why did you get it wrong then?

  47. @Joe

    Liberals almost always prosper during the campaign… Anthony has posted this several times and the graphs back this up.

  48. Mike N – DC could respond to Brown by simply saying something like ‘you want a consensus, ‘YOU’ want us to lie like ‘YOU’ have to the British people?’

    Pointed, accurate, and absolutely devastating.

  49. @Howard,

    yes darlings indeed…… white brick, red brick, marble… hard to keep up! the demogrpahic juxtaposition of the student population of University of Nottingham and Nottingham Trent would make the eyes pop out of your head…. on sight!

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