Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The lead remains at seven points and there is clearly no significant change from yesterday. The increased Tory lead post budget does seem to be genuine, though as I said yesterday, we can’t tell if it will last.

While they are up one there is no vast Lib Dem boost from the Chancellors’ debate, though I as I said yesterday, it wouldn’t necessarily show up until tomorrow. Personally I doubt there will be – the media coverage this morning wasn’t particularly substantial and already seems to have moved on to Tony Blair’s speech and elderly care. The main leader debates are far more likely to impact the campaign.


483 Responses to “Daily YouGov poll – 38/31/19”

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  1. Neil A,

    I wont forget to wish u happy b!

    sorry DavidB for over familiarity

  2. Telegraph Website:
    Gordon Brown could continue as Prime Minister for weeks even if he loses the election, under Whitehall proposals to prevent a run on the pound in the event of a hung parliament.

    EOIN: i pasted a link to election trends that you may be interested in, scroll above as it was moderated originally.

  3. “it may well be that the public will take the subliminal message that the Tories are desperate to avoid tax rises if they possibly can”.

    I’m old enough to remember 1979 as if it were yesterday, with the Tories promising income tax cuts but failing to warn us about the immediate increase of VAT from 8% to 15% when they took office.

    A lot may hinge on whether the Tories can be flushed out over a rise in the standard rate of VAT, which has been widely rumoured to be one of their plans. If they are evasive on this issue when interrogated by Paxman, Humphrys et al during the campaign, it may well cause their poll lead to slide. Their current policy of making hay with the debt, while promising NI and IHT cuts, looks most unconvincing.

  4. @ Mark

    Nope – we are busy wondering if TB has been tango’d or if it’s just fake tan ;-)

  5. It would be the height of irony if the Middle East envoy needed to wear fake tan!!!!

  6. @Fred,

    You sort of illustrate my point. The number one Tory policy is, and should be “Don’t Get Flushed Out”.

  7. @amber

    i missed ur back up today

  8. @Amber – :o

  9. @Ash

    That encapsulates exactly where my thinking is at…..

    It is time ot go to Ladbrokes

    thank you very much!

  10. Mark Johnson. The voting system is most unfair to the Liberal Democrats, and that wouldn’t be any different under Cameron’s plan for a 10% reduction in the number of MPs.

    The Tories, who are supposed to want change, are not interested in scrapping the FPTP system. In any event, had there been PR, they would only have won eleven more seats than their 198 at the last election(32.3% of 646 = 209).

  11. @ Éoin

    There has been an anti-Éoin conspiracy today. Every time I addressed a comment to you, it didn’t post :-(

    Of course I completely agree with you. Labour are going to win this. They have more tricks up their sleeve than the Blair-witch project.

    My son begins campaigning tomorrow, so if there’s a bump in the polls for Labour, don’t be giving Darling & Blair all the credit ;-) ;-)

  12. @Mark

    “Lets hope the Tories get a working majority to avoid all the problems a hung parliament brings with it.”

    Why this concern re a hung parliament. The UK is one of the few countries with the exception of the US which evectively has a two party system as far as government is concerned. I would suggest that both these countries have had some of the poorest governments in the western world in recent decades. Countries such as Germany which exist on coalitions in general perform much better.

    IMHO the UK will have to stop worrying about hung parliaments (better called balanced parliaments) as this is likely to be the name of the game in future. The aggregate of the Tory & Labour share has steadily decreased over 2 or 3 decades and I see this continuing even without PR and in the not too distant future PR will be with us, exacerbating this trend much to the dislike of Tory & Labour posters.

  13. The new boundaries in 1983 were based on electorate figures from 1976, so they were 7 years out of date.

    In 1997 the base year was 1991, so only 6 years out of date.

    In 2010 the base year is 2000, so 10 years out of date; 10 years and 3 months to be precise since the base month was February 2000.

  14. @Amber, tell us more……………

  15. “Lets hope the Tories get a working majority”

    That’s the last thing I’d ever hope for – is it supposed to be a non-partisan remark?

    I’ve just had (12.14 am) a largely statistical message, pointing out that the voting system is most unfair to the Liberal Democrats, sent to moderation, yet Mark’s biased comment is allowed to stand!

  16. Mark Johnson – the boundaries are not gerrymandered at all. The Boundary Commission is totally politically impartial. (sigh). Surely you knew that really.
    Your above post “let’s hope the Tories get a working majority” is partisan. Stick to the polls not to your mixture of spin and Tory bumptiousnéss.

  17. SNAP, Fred.

  18. banaby is right mark…….

    you wouldnt know gerrymandering if it jumped up an slapped u in the face…. in NI businessmen got a second vote and electoral ward resesmbled warsaw

    the boundary comission is a modern day saint

  19. I think it is unfair that electorate sizes are generally a lot smaller in Wales than in the rest of the country. I think something will be done about it soon whoever wins the election.

  20. @ Fred Pitt

    Mark regularly gets sent to the naughty step by Anthony; sometimes auto-mod. Then he has to beg to be allowed back in……. it is quite entertaining to watch ;-)

  21. Mark Johnson – don’t worry, Conservatives wil be ~ 40 seat majority. ;)

    ……………………………………..

    Start calculating what happens when Labour vote hits 28% or less (calculate the gain for either as Conservative or LibDem). But add 2% extra from UKIP to Conservatives now that Blair has appeared on the scene.

    Some posters on here say the Conservatives are all spent – obviously these are generally the posters who had only last week the Conservative lead declining, some even say Conservative lead down to 3%, all have turned out to be rubbish. Isn’t it strange that the Labour posters who say that Labour will climb in the polls also try saying that the Conservatives will not climb just 2% to reach 40%?

    For what it is worth (most will think ‘nothing’) if the election is May 6th then I see the result as:

    C = 43%
    L = 28%
    L/D = 18%
    Others = 11%

    This will not result in the 106 seat majority the UNS indicates as the swing will not be uniform nationally but result in 40 – 60 seats majority.

    If GB delays past May 6th then Labour could fall to the 25% – 26% level, with the 2% – 3% splitting fairly evenly between LibDems and Conservatives.

    The above figures are if turnout is ‘normal’, if turnout is lower (I do not see it being higher) then it gets even worse for Labour the more turn out is down.

  22. @bill roy

    scientific analysis at its best :)

  23. Eoin – you mean like your ‘predictions’ that the Conservative lead would be only 3%? ;) :)

  24. Nah Bill your stuff wallops that!

  25. At least my baloney is on the MoE radar….

    yours….hmmmmm 15% lead on May 6th

    it will need to start growing and quick

    Jack has some beans he’ll give ya…. he sold a cow for them

  26. I don’t agree with Bill Roy that the Tory vote will be as high as 43%. I think UKIP doing well will prevent that.

    My current forecast would be something like this:

    C – 39%
    Lab – 26%
    LD – 20%

  27. “As far as I can see, it is really only the Leaders’ Debate left, as well as perhaps the Q1 growth figures, in the “Known Unknowns”. ”

    Strange as it may appear, Labour want BAD Q1 growth. That leads to “better keep a hand on nurse…”; good growth encourages “time for change”.

    As to the Blair effect, how can he help Labour? The economic left will stick to Brown (and despise Blair); the economic right have already changed sides; and there’s no impact on the authoritarians as both major parties are equally authoritiarian (many thanks, or otherwise, the tabloids).

  28. Andy JS – I think we can agree to differ, they are only predictions, your 13% lead or my 15% lead, either produces a strong Conservative Government. Also you have Labour at 26% I have them at 28%, again little difference. :)

  29. @ Éoin,

    I think AL J & I will need to ask Anthony for another Sunday Prediction thread. It let folks get it out their system.

    I, of course, know that Labour will get the same % of vote as 2005 – there’s no good reason why they shouldn’t. And therefore the Tories cannot win.

  30. Bill – you’re right. Apologies if my previous post sounded a bit brusque!

  31. Unlike most on here, I’ll continue to post in a non-partisan manner. It is funny to read some of the insanely biased posts on here.

    Blair – that might be it. The tv coverage has been cold. The press will be worse. His tan and accent have been mocked. And he’s had his big return. Once the campaign starts he will not garner the interest. He’d certainly have to apear with Brown which may be bad for Brown.

    Debates – meh. Expect a small LD bump but the Tories escaped that minefield. However, there is a 2nd debate to come – this time on the Daily Politics. But it won’t grab interet for the same reasons a second Blair appearance won’t. Old hat.

    NI cut – it’s main achievement was to highlight the riase next year. The Tories purposely snaeaked the announcement out in the hope that it’d be overshadowed by the debate. They knew it lacked credibility so wanted less media coverage. Now they can stick it on their leaflets and hammer home the £150 message.

    Polls – my guess is that the Tories are 8% ahead. Right now I predict a Tory maj of about 30 seats.

    Gamechanger – immigration. It ties in with the economy and recession as an issue. If you haven’t seen Newsnight’s tour of the country then watch it. It’s immigration that chimes with many. Mention fixing unemployment or the economy and peopl talk about immigration.

    The Tories will break Labour with the issue. If they handle it well it could give take them from 1992 levels to a 1979 type of win.

  32. The main opposition party on 38% 2 weeks before a General Election is called.

    The LibDem’s polling at on or above their last General election result before they are give equal billing in a 3 way contest.

    Whatever happens in this election campaign, and I feel a hung parliament is the most likely result at this time, it is apparent that of the 3 main parties, the only one which looks likely to improve on its rump support are the Lib Dems.

    To win an election you need to appeal to the electorate, not come across as marginally more appealing than the others. Can’t help feeling that in the current political climate, if the Lib Dems get a fair hearing in this campaign, they might well do very well indeed. Anything above 26/27% pretty much guarantees a hung parliament. 29/%+ and you have a genuine 3 way battle…

  33. Andy – no, I was just saying really that either of our predictions seem to belay the form of the moment on here – I quite readily accept your figures as very reasonable.

    Anyway, time to hit the sack. Night All.

  34. Eoin,

    Should Lady Harmon be seduced into standing on a “Lab” ticket – however presented – she will ensure that Cameron can count on at least one MP from Ulster.

    N Down may have a track record of idiosyncratic MPs with strong personal votes, but it is not “Labour” territory in any shape.

  35. Sven,

    What are you talking about ?

    Compared to 2005 this Poll (38/31/19) gives following changes:

    Con + 5
    Lab – 5
    LD – 4
    Ohers +4

    Plus, it it really is weeks before the GE is called, then I confidently predict a game-changer of mammoth proportions. Bill Roy’s 15% lead won’t be fanciful, it will be conservative. You might even get your desire to see LDs in second place by overtaking Lab if election is on June 3rd.

    If Brown has not been down to the Palace this time next week he will lay himself open to a charge of having bottled the election yet again. It will also by then be too late to stop the Council Elections unless there is some form of catacylsmic emergency.

  36. @Sven,
    “Can’t help feeling that in the current political climate, if the Lib Dems get a fair hearing in this campaign, they might well do very well indeed.”

    Hope you are correct but have to admit that I am currently disappointed with the LD share. I believe that VC is the only person capable of resolving the economic problems and most of the other LD policies should be attracting the electorate. IMHO the LD vote depends on how well NC does in the debates and more importantly (after the figures for the CH4 debate) how many people watch the debates or any other GE program.

  37. Amber & Éoin,
    I’ll be very happy if we jointly ask Anthony for a fresh thread for a new projection game. It’ll be interesting to compare the total averages with last time & I predict more people will play.

    Amber if Anthony agrees, I’d be very pleased if you’d accept nomination to use your magic spreadsheet for the calculations. I was very impressed at your speed last time ;-)

    I am slightly relieved at this poll. Although the movement is within the MoE, there is no widening of the gap. The Cons have dropped a point moving away from the 40% psychological barrier, but Labour has dropped one too nearing the base 30% mark. The LibDems will be pleased with 19% at this stage before the election.

    Blair’s intervention appears to be getting good coverage on TV and news sites. Sky News has suggested that he is an electoral asset. I’m not sure which way the polls will move, but suggest he will have an impact. As other posters have mentioned Wednesday’s YG will give us first indications after four recent major events – chancellor’s questions- Labour National Care Plan – Con NI policy & Blair’s endorsement of Brown.

    I am with Amber, Sue, Éoin and a few others in predicting that Labour will close the gap further within the next week or so & that come election night the Cons will not get a majority. Labour may well have the largest number of seats. I also think the LibDems will increase their number to about 70.

  38. @Sven ‘Anything above 26/27% pretty much guarantees a hung parliament. 29/%+ and you have a genuine 3 way battle…’

    I’d like to see ICM re-do their vote flexibility questions. Three to four weeks ago, they pointed to maximum %s for each main UK parties: Con 41, Lab 34, LD 29. Regulat tracking of these would be interesting.

  39. As a Labourite I am quite comfortable with the polls at the moment. We had a slight swing back to the Tories post-budget, but nothing like on the scale seen on previous budgets. The lead of 7% isn’t increasing further, and is on a scale that has been quickly swapped for 4-5% in the past (I’m ignoring the various 2% polls for now).

    Blair’s arrival won’t do the negative things thrown at him by the Tories. He makes money from speeches – like Hague then. He presided over the Iraq war – like the 2005 election which he won. What he can do is articulate in ways that Brown can only dream of. And his evisceration of the Tories yesterday was spectacular. First speech focused as much on him – what impact he’ll have – than on what he said. But wheel him out again and the point will be rammed home.

    From the Tory strategy I cannot see how they get back any strength. All they had was the size of the deficit, and they have blown that for a quick headline on tax cuts. Any attack they now try and make about Labour not cutting the deficit quickly or big enough is now easily rebuttable by pointing out that they are choosing to give billions away rather than clear the debt.

    Billions given away in a tax cut vs billions given away by delay – for Joe Punter there is no difference. The only divide is what it does to the recovery if we cut as massively deeply as the Tories would have to do to make their figures balance.

    Growth for Q4 is now 0.4%. Thats substantially better than in Europe, despite all that the Tories said about how Britain was lagging behind. The Q1 numbers still won’t be strong growth, but the recovery is here and is tangible. The Labour line that the Tories threaten to scupper it – with an eye on worse recovery in Europe – is Labour’s trump card. Remember that the real narrowing of the polls occured after the recession ended. Why would that trend now reverse with growth here better than elsewhere?

  40. “UKPR is a site for NON-PARTISAN” discussion of polls”(Sorry-cannot do heavy type). Anthony – can you explain, please, what these words mean?

  41. Harris should have a poll out today but you have to kinda go looking for it. It wont come to you ;)

  42. And still all this goes on WITHOUT GB calling the election, so we’ve yet to start yet really. I think if anyone thinks all sides have shot their bolt and have nothing still left up their sleeves then they are mistaken. The Tories “seem” to have clawed back a little of the advantage and I think the next week is crucial. Whoever can gain some momentum now will take that on and it will be decisive come polling day.
    Debating wise I see DC as the best out of the 2 main parties but I think NC may come out of it well too. As long as DC doesn’t get carried away and acts more the statesman than he has tended to do in the way he puts his point across I think get the better of GB.

  43. Just to be mischevous for a moment, I was wondering if Camern’s much vaunted claim to fight vested interests will extend to supporting the judgement that Sky has to cut its pay TV sport prics. Or did he mean Ofcom is the nasty vested interest that needs tackling?
    Although I ask in slight jest, I never know how much these issues ever play with the electorate. Things like this never appear on polls of voters concerns, but I always wonder if activist ever make use of them on the doorstep and if so if there is any positive response. ‘Vote Labour for Cheaper Premier League’ won’t appear on bill boards, but it’s an interesting idea.

  44. @Eion

    a. Most recent polls give a 7-10% CLead
    b. CLead seems to be higher in the marginals.
    c. the C budget is almost 2x that of Labour
    d. No poll has shown a labour lead for 2 years, and that was a rogue.
    e. Spread betting gives 58% CMaj, 8% Lab Maj.
    f. PM Debates will probably help Cameron.
    g. C vote tends to improve in campaign

    My prediction of a CLead of 10-15% may be wrong, but at least is based on evidence. Where is yours?

  45. Neil A – all FPTP is unfair in Lib Dem eyes.

  46. @neal,

    Labour do not need a majority of votes

    so I am looking at 34-35 (same as 2005)

    Now plenty of polls have them knocking on the door of that

    Incumbent parties support rallies in tight elections.

    1992 results are a good precedent

    I have gone round the various marginals I cannot see where the Tories pick up the SEATS.

    There is no evidence that they are faring well against the liberals..

    SNP voters are drifitng peoportionately more to labour
    Lib vote in holding up in cornwall
    LAst welsh poll showed an 8% lead for labour
    Y29/03/10 YouGov (scottish poll) showed a 4% increase for Labour they now lead th eTories there by 19%

    Cons will gain in London I think….

    I have not even touched policy.

  47. Eoin..

    I think Labour will do very well to get the figures of 2005 again. VERY well. I can’t see them geting past 32%…33% is tops now in my opinion.
    Could be enough to stave off a Tory outright majority for the time being though…

  48. BE clear what we are saying. If labour do not get 33 or 33+ we are saying that their election campaign wil yield nothing.

    Can we really say that?

    YouGov hhave occasionally shown them to be at 34%

    This is evidence that there is room for some growth in Labour support.

    The debates on monday confirmed to me that they will be less about soundbite and more about substance….

    that will play to Gordon Brown’s favour.

    The themed nature of the debates works against tory strategy.This is especially true of the internatioanl affairs debate..

    why didnt cameron push for a bedate on immigration or crime?

    Brown’s three strongest areas are each debate

    economy
    world affairs
    then he’ll fill the domestic full of NHS and Eduation

    I can only see gain for labour

  49. @Statto, — all FPTP is unfair in Lib Dem eyes.

    Yes we all get told that time and time again by the desparate Lib Dems its all you ever hear from them and yet they all put up Candidates in ALL constituences and surely have equal chance of the electorate voting for their man/woman.
    Whats the problem with that really?

    The UK has a constituency based system which makes an individual MP fully accountable to the people in that same constituency (or thats the idea)

    Its worth keeping the presemt system if only to keep out the right/left wing loonies!!! :o

  50. FWIW I’ve now put the pre-2005 Election polling data into the same analysis format. The WMA CLead was minus 5 at the election, but the result was minus 2.

    @Eion: Your faith in Brown coming over well in a long debate is touching. Any evidence that he has ever done so?

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