Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The lead remains at seven points and there is clearly no significant change from yesterday. The increased Tory lead post budget does seem to be genuine, though as I said yesterday, we can’t tell if it will last.

While they are up one there is no vast Lib Dem boost from the Chancellors’ debate, though I as I said yesterday, it wouldn’t necessarily show up until tomorrow. Personally I doubt there will be – the media coverage this morning wasn’t particularly substantial and already seems to have moved on to Tony Blair’s speech and elderly care. The main leader debates are far more likely to impact the campaign.


483 Responses to “Daily YouGov poll – 38/31/19”

1 2 3 4 10
  1. Labour have come through UNITE, Tory tax cuts, a budget and they are still in hung parliament territory

    Crow’s activities will play into Labour’s hands, it will give Brown a chance to flex his anti-union muscle without upsetting Woodley/Whelan etc…..

    I think from now until election day we will see a gradual tightening of the polls.

    I cannot see the Tories ever getting to 40%.

    Result now hangs in the balance between labour majority or hung parl.

    the tories have nothing left…

    crime, immigration, even education i see today, the conomy….. they have played their hand.

    labour’s manifesto will appeal more to voters seeking genuine change

  2. It probaly will be May the 6th. If Brown delays it any longer, there will be the danger of the Tories blowing a gasket! I have a feeling that Brown will be going for a short campaign. It will probaly be dominated by the TV debates. I don’t know about you lot, but the pre-election campaign seems like it is never going to end!

  3. What are the figures for England and Wales? I have always assumed the Consevatives will gain nothing in Scotland, one or two seats extra will just be a bonus for them.

  4. Doubt if Chancellor’s debate will make that much difference. Maybe people on the Yougov panel that saw it could have been affected, but media reaction fairly muted today and overshadowed by care announcement from Labour.
    However, looks as though the limit of any Tory boost from the budget has been reached.

  5. BRYAN COOMBE:

    Ask The Chancellors
    Monday 29 March 2010 | Channel 4 | 20:00 | 1.83 million viewers

  6. “labour’s manifesto will appeal more to voters seeking genuine change”

    ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-)

  7. @ NEIL A
    “Tory minority government, perhaps preceded by a very unstable Lib/Lab minority government that collapses the first time it is tested.”

    An interesting thought Neil.

    What circumstances could lead to a second election-who has the right to call it & when?

  8. OT
    I’ve just received an e-mail from my Local Authority stating that are sending out polling cards for the Local Council Elections on May 6th. The e-mail also states that they will send out the GE polling cards seperately, and that the GE MUST take place by June 6.
    Interestingly, voter registration for the GE does not close until April 20.

  9. “and they are still in hung parliament territory”

    I don’t think anyone can say that for certain. Some political experts/commentators are saying that 7% could be enough for the Tories to get a majority. Personally, I think it’s anywhere between 7-9% – depending on the marginal swing.

    “Result now hangs in the balance between labour majority or hung parl.”

    I strongly dispute that. A Labour majority is (currently) looking unlikely. They would have to gain a good 5 or 6% on the latest polls to stand a good chance of getting a majority. It’s quite possible if the Tory campaign implodes (i.e. through a major scandal), but otherwise I don’t see how Labour would get a sufficient enough swing in their direction.

    All in all, as things are at the moment, I’d say it looks most likely to be a hung parliament or small Tory majority.

  10. @Matt,

    Dont pay any heed to 7% talk..

    they need more than that!

  11. I might have missed something, but skimming through these posts I can’t see a single mention of what was meant to be yesterdays big story. The Tories had been briefing that the NI cut was going to form the central plank of their campaign – it doesn’t seem to have got much coverage in todays papers and blogs, had much poll effect (too early to tell though possibly) and no one is talking about it. Apart from showing a shocking naivety is announcing it on the morning of the chancellors debate and effectively losing completely the headlines, it makes me wonder whether the policy volte face is going to help them.

    I’m a bit with Neil A on these polls – a minor budget effect, although i now feel this will ebb away and the gap will reclose to a degree, but otherwise very little happening.

    @Eoin – I didn’t post the C4 viewing numbers, but I think someone else did. By the way, seeing the number of posts you manage on a daily basis, can you assure us that you are real, and not a computer programme? I struglle to keep up.

  12. Thanks ASH.

    Now I now know how many anoraks there are in the country .

    And having had a quick google it is interesting to me that that was about 7.3% of the available viewing public. And married other single in another slot had 15.1%.

    No wonder it was a non event…….Oh sorry and i meant the debate.

  13. Cameron’s comment “it was nice to see him give a speech he wasn’t paid for”

    Perhaps Cameron will make that characteristically snide remark about William Hague one of these days, though somehow I doubt it.

    The return of Tony Blair could well be a shrewd move. I suspect that the three times election winner is still liked by many past Labour voters, and he may well help to keep them on board. Blair has charisma, not something which can be said of Brown, Cameron or Clegg. Blair also has another Bill Clinton factor, namely that you can’t help liking him even if you think he’s a rogue. It will be interesting to see if his re-emergence is reflected in the polls.

  14. @Eoin
    “Dont pay any heed to 7% talk.. they need more than that”
    Possibly. But how “hung” may be a more significant issue. If the Conservatives are just 10 seats short of an overall majority, that may be enough for them to govern alone. More than 20 short, and that will be difficult.

    There was also news in today’s Standard that Andrew Pelling MP (Conservative, Croydon Central), who had the Tory whip withdrawn following alleged personal issues, will stand as an Independent in the GE. Croydon Central is a very marginal seat, so this could be siginificant.

  15. @Colin,

    I don’t necessarily think there would be a second election. I was thinking more along the lines of Brown Ploughs On (as is his right as serving PM) with LibDem support, but hits an issue in the first few months where he can’t carry either a) all of his own party, b) all of the LibDems or c) sufficient small party support and has to resign. DC might then be invited to form a government. All of this would be in circumstances where the Tories had the most seats/votes but not enough to force Brown out.

  16. I found this chart on a blog which shows a trend in various ways with moving average superimposed. I find it useful but it is a few days behind so the last few days hasn’t appeard on the chart. If anyone else wants to have a look, please do so.

    http://ukelectiontrend.blogspot.com/p/polling-history-table.html

    Anthony: if its not an appropriate link, please remove this post.

  17. Fred

    What you see as snide others see as wit, lets keep a sense of perspecitve here.

    I think the Blair intrusion could swing either way, handled skillfully the Libdems could make much hay, I wonder how many votes the Lib Dems got from the Iraq war ?
    If I were Clegg would be saying “if you meet Blair in the campaign ask him where the weapons of mass destruction are” keep at it and it wil hit home.

  18. It’s good that so many anti-Conservatives have suddenly descended on this site. For the last few years it was a bit one-sided with mainly Tories commenting.

  19. I posted a comment yesterday regarding the boundary commission and how its re-jigged boundaries were already out of date. Does anyone know of any research on what the effect of this might be?

  20. @Raf

    very good question

    7% would leave them about 20ish off… counting ulster unionists maybe ten

    but two major points are ill-discussed

    1. a majority of 1 is still an absolute disaster
    2. Seats will go the other way- be sure about that

    I have been building up a pciture region by region- margin required on a variable national swing.

    The Tories are not getting a majority…

    tell me has any opposition party ever gain in the final fortnight to clinch an election? I am open to answers… but I seriously think they are
    a) out of ideas
    b) out of time

  21. “@Matt,

    Dont pay any heed to 7% talk..

    they need more than that!

    You’re probably right (I think about 8% is required, personally). My point is that with things being so close, no universal swing figure should be taken as gospel.

    Just out of interest, does anyone on here think that the Tories would change the electoral system/constituency boundaries if they were elected, to make it more favourable?

    BTW I still stand by my prediction that a hung parliament looks the most likely.

  22. @Statto-

    it gives tories about 12 extra seats

  23. @RAF,

    Even if Croydon is very marginal I expect the overall swing to the Tories is likely to outweight any indepedent vote for Pelling. Politicians tend to overestimate how much of their vote is personal and underestimate how much is for their party. Besides which Pelling’s character hardly marks him out as a Martin Bell. Not even an Esther Rantzen.

    @Eoin,

    I am not sure where you get your confidence that the Tory campaign is a dead duck. It looked deader two weeks ago than it does now, frankly. Osborne has not imploded. The Taliban tendency is more or less in its box. The BA and transport strikes have not been negotiated away in a Statemanlike Way by the government. The NI policy can be made to look inconsistent/irresponsible if you want it to (from a partisan standpoint) but it may well be that the public will take the subliminal message that the Tories are desperate to avoid tax rises if they possibly can.

    I freely admit to being a Tory supporter, but given your usual academic incisiveness I am genuinely surprised at your prediction.

  24. “I posted a comment yesterday regarding the boundary commission and how its re-jigged boundaries were already out of date. Does anyone know of any research on what the effect of this might be?”

    Ah, didn’t realise you were thinking along the same lines!!!

  25. Eoin, I wasn’t referring to the effect of the last boundary commission re-jig, but rather to the demographics shifts that will have continued after that point in time.

  26. Matt, my understanding is that the Tories propose reduce the number of MP’s, meaning larger, more evenly sized constituencies. Net effect will be to remove the seat advantage that Labour currently has.

    The Lib Dems will not support this in a hung parliament, as it would reduce their seat tally also (as well as being unfair of course :-)

  27. I think some comments miss the point. LAB had to give Blair at least one outing to judge the mood.
    In the election proper the CONS would have taunted GB endlessly. Where is Blair? Where is Blair?
    If this appearance is deemed bad TB can return to the middle east- pressure of work folks. If good he can make a couple of more speeches.

  28. “Matt, my understanding is that the Tories propose reduce the number of MP’s, meaning larger, more evenly sized constituencies. Net effect will be to remove the seat advantage that Labour currently has.

    The Lib Dems will not support this in a hung parliament, as it would reduce their seat tally also (as well as being unfair of course :-)

    Ah, thanks for that.

  29. Neil A,

    You make a very fair point,…..

    let me try and articulate it better..

    BA + Willie Walsh are doing Brown’s work for him

    bar economic policy voters will be unmoved by other big manifesto announcements

    labour have announced
    PR
    national care service
    cancer specilasit in 2 weeks
    the unemployment guarantee
    they have amutual announcement in the pipeline
    they will go further with devolution (although I accpet the Troeis are fairly supportive of Calman)

    Osborne I have the utmost intellectual appreciation for. the slights made at him are by those who dont get him. But someone foolishly agreed to a march 29th debate. they flushed out his policy and then drowned it out in the press with Blair’s arrival.

    I was gobsmacked!

    Is there genuinely anything left?

    the scandals peaked to soon….to do permanent damge to labour

    mandleson, campbell, whelan, blair, brown

    my 2010 phrase wil be “its the incumbents stoopid”

  30. If the Tories are 20 short, they could maybe govern with Ulster Unionist support, especially if Sinn Fein don’t take their seats.

  31. “to remove the seat advantage that Labour currently has.”

    Yeah, were Labour in the Tory’s current polling position, they would get a very healthy majority of over 100 seats. Makes you realise how good the current constituency arrangements are for Labour.

  32. I just watched Newsnight with a debate on Tony Blair’s impact on the election.

    They had John Prescott for Labour and Eric Pickles for the Conservatives.

    What struck me was the sheer obesity of these representatives! Did anyone else watch it?

    Regardless of the points they tried to make, and you couldn’t decipher them because they were shouting over each other, but their lack of screen compatibility was obvious.

    Grotesquely overweight, with severely stretched shirt collars, they should be removed from television appearances as they could deter the public from a supporting vote – as well as their dinners.

  33. Thegreatgonzo:

    Labour seem to have come through the budget and fall-out from it without taking too much of a hit, but they need to start scoring some points on the Conservatives soonish or I think we’ll just drift all the way to a narrow Conservative majority.

    I think this is a very good assessment. The next few days are crucial. Labour needs to recapture momentum.

  34. I wonder how many votes the Lib Dems got from the Iraq war ?

    A lot. Where I live (Cambridge) there was a 15% swing from Labour to the Lib Dems in 2005, and they took the seat. However, I suspect (and hope!) that Iraq is old news, and the question is – how many of those Labour supporters who deserted to the Lib Dems, knowing that the Tories were unlikely to win in 2005, will return to Labour this time in an attempt to prevent the very real prospect of a Tory government?

    I suggest that in what could well be a close election, the turnout will be higher than in recent elections and the Lib Dem vote will be ‘squeezed’.

  35. In general I think too many people are reading too much from too little. I’d suggest that committed voters are Con: min 35%. Lab: 30%. LD: 20% and others perhaps 10%. That leaves just 5 or so people out of every 100 who may be swayed by recent events/reporting and decide on on or another of the alternatives because of it. And it is, of course, entirely possible that the same news event will shift two different people in opposite directions.

    The idea therefore, which Kyle, for example, seems to think possible, that we can somehow read/connect a small change in polling figures to one event or another seems flawed to me.

    This hasn’t started yet but I think the main reasons for eventual changes/settling of opinion in this 5% or so will be very difficult to judge. What is sad – and the reason I am for PR – is that, in most constituencies even that tiny percentage make no difference to the result.

  36. @Eoin,

    I see what you’re saying but I really think you’re putting too much emphasis on “policies”. The answer to any “great new idea” from Labour is surely “If its so great why didn’t you do it when you had a majority the size of Texas and tons of extra cash to spend from the boom?”.

    The Tories will roll out policies steadily, just like Labour will. None of them will shake the earth, none of them will cause gnashing of teeth. This election is much more likely to be about presentation and “feel” than about specific policies.

    I have always believed, and said, that the main thing the Tories need to do is not paint themselves into a corner. They are trying very hard not to do so, and it certainly causes plenty of awkward “What are you going to cut?” questions in interviews. But I think their approach is probably right. The country probably wants a change, so long as the change that is being offered doing reek too much. As a Tory, the less you speak the less you reek, as it were.

  37. @Statto,

    How is having less seats in parliament unfair?

    Would doubling the number of seats make it more fair? I don’t really understand the connection between size and fairness.

    And I REALLY don’t understand the connection between ironing out the population anomalies in the current seats and fairness..

  38. (When my last post but one comes out of moderation, please please replace “doing reek” with “doesn’t reek”).

  39. “If the Tories are 20 short, they could maybe govern with Ulster Unionist support”

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I was under the impression that there is only one Ulster Unionist MP! The Democratic Unionists are not allied to the Tories.

  40. @Neil A

    it is a pity…. i was lookin forward to your response…….. :(

  41. Sorry guys i should have updated

    There is now no Ulster Unionist MPs

    The only serving UU MP resigned her seat in protest at the UU tory pact…

    sorry I presume you get thi snews (but then I should realsie how insignifcant we are)

    she is standing as an independant (Ldy Sylvia Hermon)

    She will most likely win

    I have friends in the Labour party here who are trying to persuade her to stand for them but it is still in negotiation. I doubt it will come to fruition but hse would support labour in the event of a hung parl.

    Darn, why have I not explained this before

    we do have Democratic Unionists if your interested in that bunch?

  42. “@Eoin,

    I see what you’re saying but I really think you’re putting too much emphasis on “policies”. The answer to any “great new idea” from Labour is surely “If its so great why didn’t you do it when you had a majority the size of Texas and tons of extra cash to spend from the boom?”.

    The Tories will roll out policies steadily, just like Labour will. None of them will shake the earth, none of them will cause gnashing of teeth. This election is much more likely to be about presentation and “feel” than about specific policies.

    I have always believed, and said, that the main thing the Tories need to do is not paint themselves into a corner. They are trying very hard not to do so, and it certainly causes plenty of awkward “What are you going to cut?” questions in interviews. But I think their approach is probably right. The country probably wants a change, so long as the change that is being offered doing reek too much. As a Tory, the less you speak the less you reek, as it were.

    I 100% agree with all of the above.

  43. Now that i say it out loud i am prettu stupid for not explaining that Cameron done a deal with a party that will win no seats at the next election…
    D’oh!

  44. That someone can go from the UUP to Labour, whilst someone else goes from Alliance to Conservative (Ian Parsley, Lady H’s putative opponent) just illustrates what I find so odd about “nationalist” (small ‘n’) politics. You can be in the same party as just about anyone, so long as you both agree that “Our country’s grrrreeat!!!

  45. @Neil A,

    Benedict Anderson Imagined communities (1983) best book you will ever read

  46. Thanks for the tip, Eoin. I will make a note and source a copy.

  47. Sorry Fred Pitt, I meant all Unionists from NI.

  48. By the way the result of tonights YouGov poll is so very close to my original prediction.

    Tomorrow nights poll will be even more interesting because of the Tony Blair factor!

    And we are due another couple of non YouGov polls later this week I believe which is even better :o

  49. @Eoin,

    Ordered from Amazon. £8.62. It can be my birthday present to myself for next Monday.

    How’s that for fast reaction time! Always on the look out for a good read, especially since I’ve nearly finished Lovely Bones and I have a couple of court cases coming up (oh so boring….)

  50. Sinn Fein met brown last week, does anyone know what for? it was not reported in ni press……

1 2 3 4 10