Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 38%(-1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The lead remains at seven points and there is clearly no significant change from yesterday. The increased Tory lead post budget does seem to be genuine, though as I said yesterday, we can’t tell if it will last.

While they are up one there is no vast Lib Dem boost from the Chancellors’ debate, though I as I said yesterday, it wouldn’t necessarily show up until tomorrow. Personally I doubt there will be – the media coverage this morning wasn’t particularly substantial and already seems to have moved on to Tony Blair’s speech and elderly care. The main leader debates are far more likely to impact the campaign.


483 Responses to “Daily YouGov poll – 38/31/19”

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  1. So I take it that there is no “Blair Bounce”. I thought there would be a massive change in the polls when Blair appeared. An ex-PM comming to campaign for his sucsessor and everything.

  2. The Con wont be upset with this DC looking stronger Lab scoring own goals.
    Blair needs to lose the fake tan if hes going to help LAB.
    Death Tax has stuck. Con have managed to brand it.

  3. Looks like the increase in the lead was more than just a sample error. Interesting to see how it changes in the next few days.

  4. Funny that the latest YouGov poll exactly matches the UKPR average

  5. So much for this being an exciting poll….

  6. Interesting..might take time for recent events to filter I think…

  7. Agreed AW

  8. Looks like a small recovery in the tory lead but no impact yet from the Chancellor;s debate and subsequent press coverage. When it comes, will the Libs see a boost? And from whom will it come? Labour, tory or others?

  9. as predicted

    GO and AD level pegging after last night VC a small boost
    Tory sigh of relief

  10. KD: Do you really think that would have been picked up within an hour or so?

  11. Kyle

    Blair spoke today, do you honestly think that could possibly be reflected in this poll?

  12. Blair definitely not in it yet but what about the Chancellors?

  13. Labour seem to have come through the budget and fall-out from it without taking too much of a hit, but they need to start scoring some points on the Conservatives soonish or I think we’ll just drift all the way to a narrow Conservative majority.

  14. I nearly got it spot on.

    Just watching the BBC news. Pretty unfavourable piece on the Blair speech. They mentioned his speeches for cash, and also showed the bit at the end where his spokesperson asked all press to immediately leave the room and no questions were permitted.

  15. These polls take place on afternoons; as such, both the Blair effect and the Chancellors’ debate won’t have affected this one. Tomorrow night is the one to watch.

  16. Kyle – too early for Blair to have had any effect.

  17. Labour now down to 31% on YG.

    That is the biggest story in you gov’s recent polls.

  18. Oh yes ofcourse. I forgot that the world of polling is a day behind. Silly me! But saying that, it would be very interesting tomorow seeing if there is an affect at all.

  19. The conservatives if they had gained a little momentum should have been on 40 and labour if they had lost momentum should be below 30. So far that hasn’t and following the previous 2 years budget it maybe that post budget jump in the lead may subside as in the past two budgets.

    KYLE DOWNING:
    If there is such a boost, I am sure you would know by now that it wouldn’t show in today’s poll.

  20. My tea leaves are getting spookily right ! :-)

  21. It seems to be steady as she goes for Lab and Lib and a couple of points boost for Con, though this might still be a margin of error. Perhaps the public were expecting worse from GO and were surprised that he was better than they expected. It will be interesting over the next couple of days to see what effect the chancellor’s debate will have, if any.

  22. Blair probably does the Labour party more damage than he does favours, I would imagine….his speech wasn’t particularly big or hard hitting and I think the criticism that Brown must be desperate if he is resorting to using Blair is something that will resonate with voters…..

    I think Blair might be an asset in some labour seats, but I can’t see him doing much to change the polls, at least not in labour’s favour.

  23. Labour seems to have slipped from the mid to low 30s in the past few days – the Tories are only one point or so up. However, they’re not far from that all important 40% (but moving the wrong way in today’s poll!).

    The Tories might suffer despite Osborne’s solid performance in the Chancellors’ debate as quite a lot of the BBC coverage has been hostile to the Tories.

  24. @HOWARD.

    On the previous thread you said “I have seen no evidence of poll movements due to labour disputes for yonks.”
    I’ll have to take your word on that one.

    However, surely you must agree, if this rail strike goes ahead, and also the underground workers go on strike, then, this close to an election,

    for Labour, at BEST, their poll ratings will not be affected,
    for the Tories, at WORST, their poll ratings will not be affected.

  25. If there is any Blair effect, I think it will be subtle rather than a sudden impact one. I can’t see any way in which it’s likely to be helpful to Brown but perhaps I’m missing something.

  26. Using todays results from YG and adjusting them for ‘likelihood to vote’ by reducing Labour vote by 5% compared to Conservative vote so that a nearer comparrison may be obtained between YG who do not weight for ‘likelihood to vote’ (like AR) and other major pollsters who do weight for ‘likelihood to vote’ the figures are:

    C = 38.59%
    L = 29.91%
    L/D = 19.30 %

    Please remember this is only an attempt to make the polls ‘more comparable’ with each other by taking into account one recognised difference between the polling methods of the various major pollsters. To show the minor difference this makes consider that the normal MoE of the polls themselves is 3%.

    For those who think this is not a valid attempt then just ignor the above figures.

    Worryingly for Labour on this poll (using adjusted or unadjusted figures) is that they have not narrowed the gap on the Conservatives. Perhaps though we should keep an eye on the Lib/Dem figures, they are still 3% behind what they started with from the last election.

  27. Eoin Clarke,

    “Labour now down to 31% on YG.”

    It’s only a single reading. Wait until tomorrow and see what they say then. Tomorrow’s reading could be up or down on today’s, meaning it is either just random variation or perhaps the start of a trend. I’m sure you understand that numbers like these need to be taken in the round.

  28. There is a non-bounce from the non-budget, perhaps as might be expected. It is another one of our “Known Unknowns” that has seemingly come and gone. I suspect the Chancellor debate will have little effect other than a small lift to the LibDems from the exposure (and I think we’ve all been factoring in at least a 2-3% boost to the LibDems from the exposure of a campaign anyway – the debate is really part of that).

    As far as I can see, it is really only the Leaders’ Debate left, as well as perhaps the Q1 growth figures, in the “Known Unknowns”. After that we are in the hands of events, and the open question of which pollster’s methodology is going to come out ahead.

    I am guessing a GE result of 38/32/23 with a marginal effect favouring the Tories that takes them to within about 15-20 seats (short) of an overall majority. Tory minority government, perhaps preceded by a very unstable Lib/Lab minority government that collapses the first time it is tested.

  29. Ken – do your tea leaves extend to the gee gees? I need a good tipster!

  30. How far are the polls “behind” the news? Is it one day, two, three? If I did the fieldwork for a poll today and published it tomorrow, would that poll take into account the Chancellor debate? What about Osborne’s NI cut?
    I’m only asking for the general concensus amongst reasonable psephologists, not a precise answer!
    My reading of the matter is that all recent polling seems to relate to AD’s Budget, and that more recent issues have yet to accounted for.

  31. Wheeling Blair out was a grave mistake.

    It simply adds a further reduction factor in GB’s credibility, Brown looks weak and dependant on an ex neighbour. The mere fact thet the relationship between th two men was poor in office screams desparation.

    Nick Clegg’s comment regarding it as an “act of desparation after 13 years of failure” and Cameron’s comment “it was nice to see him give a speech he wasn’t paid for” are both very valid.

  32. I think we’re maybe putting a little too much emphasis on the “chancellor’s” debate.

    I can’t see that much more than 5% of the public actually watched the debate, and much more than 10% will have shown any interest whatsoever in any coverage it has received since.

  33. What odds for Blair as prime minister in a government of national unity following two inconclusive elections in 2010. Gets my vote. So much better than anything else on offer. Am predicting a Labour bounce the more we see of our former leader, but then a collapse when people see they can’t yet vote for him.

    Only joking! When it the election going to be announced anyway?

  34. @Raf

    Alec put up the viewing figures for last night

    sub 2 mill watched it

    g-osbornes tax cuts have yet to strongly impact…

    can we say perhaps the posst budget bounce for the tories is waning a little?

    perhpas we need another poll
    its harris tomorrow i think…..

  35. @Harry…………………..Lapsang Souchong is my favorite,
    running in the China Cup tomorrow afternoon. :-)

  36. Andrew Holden,

    “I think we’re maybe putting a little too much emphasis on the “chancellor’s” debate.

    I can’t see that much more than 5% of the public actually watched the debate, and much more than 10% will have shown any interest whatsoever in any coverage it has received since.”

    Perhaps, but I suspect it will influence those who try to influence the voters. Don’t the papers try to get their readers to vote one way or the other?

  37. Mike in Slovenia – Please be careful, some posters may be elderly or louche and you just raised their blood pressure dangerously quickly :)

  38. I think the main effect of the Chancellors’ Debate was what it didn’t do. It seemed very risky for the Tories because a lot of people thought Osborne would be an utter twonk. Had that happened, the debate and media follow-up might well have undermined the recent Tory recovery. But Osborne acquitted himself fairly well and so the debate would seem to have had no real impact on its own.

  39. WMA 38:31:19 – there really don’t seem to be any significant trends. In theory the 37 day trend is still down but the R2 is down to 0.56 and actually over the last month there has been no trend at all.

  40. I am becoming more and more convinced that the only thing that’s really affected the polls significantly is the GB interview with Piers :(
    What next?DCs already having a baby, I suppose we’d better roll GB out on Heat magazine next?

  41. On the subject of the election date, I have a feeling that Brown is going to panic and call it for 3rd June. But he has got Labour fired up, so I think maybe he will go to the Palace and ask for a disolution this week or next.

  42. @James Ludlow

    Big up to you for the return of the sadly underused term ‘twonk’

  43. @Eoin
    “…can we say perhaps the posst budget bounce for the tories is waning a little? perhpas we need another poll its harris tomorrow i think…”
    Ah…Harris…yes…forgot about them. What I like about Harris is that it’s very Old School. You only really now about a Harris poll when you read it in the newspaper (the Evening Standard if you live in London).

  44. Kyle.

    June 3rd is in the middle of school half-term week, when alot of people will be on holiday.
    Brown needs a high turnout.

    IMO, if the rail strike is on, I think he’ll go to the palace this Thur.
    If it’s off, it will be called next Tues.

  45. It’s so going to be May 6th

  46. @ Sue – don’t panic! If Sarah Brown is found in a compromising position with Jedward in a broom cupboard, and GB sobs his heart out on the Jeremy Kyle Show, Labour could win!

  47. James Ludlow, – yep, that’d pretty much be the perfect storm.

  48. I’ve yet to meet anyone that saw the so called “chancellors budget” anyone know the viewing figures. Even missed it myslef had a more attractive dinnner date, NICE Steak……

  49. This is all very static…I’m getting the impression that maybe the general public aren’t paying much attention yet…

  50. @James Ludlow.

    I agree with Mike in Slovenia. “Twonk” is one of those words that really should be part of any self-respecting gentleman’s vocabulary. On the other hand, preceding it with “dozy” is just showing off.

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