There are three new polls tonight, and they all show a post-budget swing towards the Conservatives.

YouGov/Sun: CON 39%(+2), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 18%(-1)
ComRes/Independent: CON 37%(nc), LAB 30%(-2), LDEM 20%(+1)
Opinium/Express: CON 38%(+1), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 18%(+3)

YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has a 7 point lead, up from 5 in their Sunday Times poll and equalling the highest they’ve had the Conservatives this month. ComRes show the Conservatives unchanged, but Labour dropping two since the end of last month. Opinium have a ten point Conservative lead.

The changes themself are not massive, but every poll since the budget has shown a trend back towards the Conservatives. There seems little doubt that the budget has shifted things back towards the Tories a bit. The question now is whether it lasts, or whether it is just a brief downwards blip for Labour that will pass as new events (like the Conservative tax announcement or whatever coverage tonight’s Chancellor’s debate gets) take over the political news agenda.

UPDATE: Lib Dem figure from Opinium corrected (you’ll have to wait till tonight for tonight for it to get corrected in the sidebar)


508 Responses to “YouGov, ComRes and Opinium show Tory lead growing”

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  1. Polly Ticks (my box)
    Makes me smile!!
    :)
    Juklian Gilbert – i suspect Th Sun had expected to be in a position to apply graphically a Nail in The Coffin on a daily basis until the GE.

    They’re stuck with it now.

    Just seen TB on telly. Gosh he’s tanned, hasn’t he?

  2. Eoin Clarke
    Romano Prodi had to deal with the communist party….

    Following your acknowledgement that you’re Irish, I’m surprised you don’t pick an example closer to home. With a fair [STV] electoral system, has a government of the Republic of Ireland ever had to rely on Sinn Fein, for example?

    Or are you saying that the flighty English who have all the power to determine who “wins” Westminster elections are much more likely to behave like Italians than the stolid Irish, Swiss, Germans, Norwegians, Dutch, etc?

  3. CONS 38%
    LABOUR 31%
    LIB DEMS 19%

  4. Brownedov

    there are examples

    Clann na Poblachta is a very good one… 1954

    also you have the factor of small parties having a disproportionate influence

    see Progressive Democrats post 2000

    i will give more when I get time, but examples are plentiful

  5. Eoin Clarke
    i will give more when I get time, but examples are plentiful

    Don’t worry – I believe you. But you’re missing the key point that the inclusion of what you describe as extremists is generally the choice of one of the larger parties for personal gain. How often would an FF/FG coalition not have had a majority, for example?

    To be discussed at a week-end when polls are sparse, I think.

  6. john tt

    Ah-that.

    Yes I can see what you mean.

    I thought he was too aggressive on strike breaking to start with.

    I think the trends there may be in his favour though.

  7. @ Sue ‘who will be hurt most by a massive surge in Lib Dem support?’

    Both Labour (which people expect) and the Tories (GO would have ignored the LDs in his final statement on Ch4 if DC thought otherwise).

    I played Mitz’s game – moved 3-4% from the big two’s current poll standings, gave them to the Lib Dems, to test your massive surge possibility, and then ‘de-rounded’, to make the outcome easily comparable with 2005.

    UNS Result (compared with 2005)
    Con 33.27 (+0) -> 249 seats (+51)
    Lab 29.19 (-7) -> 283 (-73)
    LD 27.68 (+5) -> 87 (+25)
    Other 9.86 (+2) -> 13 (+1)

    This or something like it would not be an impossible outcome from where things stand now. Only the LDs of the three main UK parties would be able to claim they had advanced, despite the Tories extra 50+ seats for no more votes, and despite Labour having the most seats. There would be at least three possible coalition possibilities, but the SNP and PC would have no influence on getting anything through with a minority government, unless they won 35-40 seats, which is very unlikely

  8. Hi, There doesn’t seem to be much comment about the ‘others’ and how these UKIP BNP Greens are going to affect the overall results ?
    Seems that ‘Others’ are showing as big an increase in support as any of the major parties, will this affect the Tory (to UKIP ) and Labour ( to BNP) and Lib (to Green)

    Will these small parties play any significant part in the overall results ?

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