There are three new polls tonight, and they all show a post-budget swing towards the Conservatives.

YouGov/Sun: CON 39%(+2), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 18%(-1)
ComRes/Independent: CON 37%(nc), LAB 30%(-2), LDEM 20%(+1)
Opinium/Express: CON 38%(+1), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 18%(+3)

YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has a 7 point lead, up from 5 in their Sunday Times poll and equalling the highest they’ve had the Conservatives this month. ComRes show the Conservatives unchanged, but Labour dropping two since the end of last month. Opinium have a ten point Conservative lead.

The changes themself are not massive, but every poll since the budget has shown a trend back towards the Conservatives. There seems little doubt that the budget has shifted things back towards the Tories a bit. The question now is whether it lasts, or whether it is just a brief downwards blip for Labour that will pass as new events (like the Conservative tax announcement or whatever coverage tonight’s Chancellor’s debate gets) take over the political news agenda.

UPDATE: Lib Dem figure from Opinium corrected (you’ll have to wait till tonight for tonight for it to get corrected in the sidebar)


508 Responses to “YouGov, ComRes and Opinium show Tory lead growing”

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  1. Mitz,

    The Conservative lead over Labour has been significantly reduced, no argument there from anyone I am sure. However, even with an 7-8% lead and Cons on the 38-39 vicinity, there is a probability Cameron is our next PM.

    The 8% is a national lead taking into account the whole of Scotland and Wales where, Labour is very strong and where Cons hold few seats.

    So, in real terms, England, where the majority of the marginal battles will be held, has a higher degree of Con support, hence the extreme likelihood of a clear Con majority.

    Hope Sally didn’t mind my answer.

  2. Mitz – Don’t know if I’m being drawn in, so I’ll do both.

    I thought GO was good because he was calm, reasonable and he put his policies across well. When he summed up at the end, he made a point of saying it was the people’s decision. He had the hardest job of the three but I thought he held it together and sounded like he cared.

    I thought DC on the Politics Show had his hands tied. Sopel kept on trying to pin him down and 4 or 5 times he had to say “you will get detail on this before the election”. It really started to sound like he either didn’t know or was trying to keep something hidden.

    I take the point that opinion is just that, but even before I’m partisan I’m an analyst, I can’t help myself.

  3. Rather clever poster and online campaign started by the LibDems – urging us to vote for a fictional party called the “Labservatives” led by Gorvid Camerown.

    i.e. the big two are so alike it really is time to take a serious look at the alternative third party.

    Funny and thought provoking at the same time. With the Vince effect I think we’ll see LD trend upwards throughout this week on YouGov. Certainly room for them to make an impact right now with the Tories stuck around 38 and Lab becalmed in low 30s

  4. RE: Tony B

    I’m thinking Tony’s job will be showing that Cameron is not the ‘heir to Blair’; & even if DC is styled as such – that’s not what the UK needs now because times have changed.

    If TB can bring it, that might help LAB with voters in London & the South.

    Personally, TB is the only UK PM who I have bi-polar opinion(s) about, depending on the context. To be ROLAND one moment & SUE the next is discombobulating!!!

  5. Woodsman, they are awfully good. Very clever. I really think many factors are pointing to the LibDems doing very well.
    Maybe it’s about time too.

  6. @ MARK

    I didn’t say LAB would be at 4% behind in tonight’s YG. I said by the end of the week.

  7. Amber

    Like the LD fake leader I mentioned – you’ll morph into SUELAND! ;-)

  8. ”discombobulating”

    What a lovely word lol ;-)

  9. Yes Sue,if they have a good campaign I think they could well gain more seats than the bare polling % would suggest due to all sorts of factors – incumbency/tactical voting/selective targeting of seats.

    I don’t know how any polls would coroborate this theory though, other than in specific marginals. Any ideas anyone? The only marginal polling has only been in Lab/Tory seats so we’re in the dark at present…..

  10. discombobulating? ?

  11. Woodsman – Don’t forget disillusionment with the main two and the mighty Vince.

  12. If (which I doubt) the polls are affected by Darlings performance in Labours favour, so be it, an honest man (for a politician) doing an honest job. If Mr Blairs input creates a great leap forward, then the British people deserve all they get.

  13. @Sue Marsh
    Roland – In case there was any doubt, I practically have a crush on him, just doesn’t mean I’m convinced he should be on the election trail

    —————————-

    Sue, you disappoint me. He was the reason why I left the Labour Party. I never thought this [ tory ] cuckoo would turn out to be a rabid warmongerer.

    I am not at all comfortable with him campaigning. No doubt, they have worked it out. He probably hardens flaky soft Labour types. Pi**ing off, hardcore once who with him gone will return to the fold, particularly with the hyena’s about.

  14. @ Woodsman

    SUELAND – brilliant re the LD context :-)

  15. @Surbiton

    Amen

  16. The tories must be rubbing there hands with glee. I can envisage some who would downright refuse to canvass now he is back. I am rethinking my donation.

  17. Can I have your donation Eoin ?…cheque or cash..I’ll accept either… :-D

  18. Its way to easy to say Blair coming back is a bad thing for Labour.
    I personally strongly feel it will be very good for them, more so in the campaign itself (baring in mind i dont particularly like him myself)… but he’s such a familiar face, with incredible speech and communication skills.
    Do you really think all the Labour strategists would have allowed him back if he wont do good?!?! I think they know a little more than us.

  19. Trouble is Jon, I think they pretty much think they can’t win outright now and have nothing to lose..that is how they MAY see it, and it may indeed work out for them. A last roll of the dice maybe ?
    Reading the Guardian comments though, either a load of Tories have invaded it or it gives a picture of what the Labour faithfull think even now….?

  20. @Polly, well if you know a party with a backbone then, yes, perhaps you can ;) I’ll write of to David Davis and give it to him.

  21. @ Polly Ticks

    Reading the Guardian comments though…..

    Yes, it often gets taken over by Tories posting – but let’s not have reported gossip from another site filling this one – there’s enough gossip on here as it is! ;-)

  22. Fair enough Woodsman…..just noticed it in passing that’s all and wanted to comment. Sharn’t do it again..promise.

    :-)

  23. @ POLLY TICKS

    You can’t really consider Cif (Guardian) representative though. TB wouldn’t have had a cat’s chance in H3LL of being elected in 2005 (ever?) were it down to Cif posters.

    Many of the Guardian journalists seem to share SUE’s feelings – which provokes a ROLAND type reaction below the line.

  24. Can I please canvass the opinion of posters of all political persuasion.

    Does anybody really think Blair coming back will do anything but damage Brown? I think it is absolute madness from Labour. If Brown is to be elected on his own merits, he could well do without the massive political baggage Blair will bring. I will not make any partisan views on Blair’s reign, I just feel that old PMs coming back to support new ones, i.e. Clinton, Bush etc, tend to do more damage than good when looking at political history. Thatcher was very succesful with three terms, but Major made the right decision to distance himself in the very tight 92 election.

    Am really interested in peoples views on this.

  25. I think most people realise that the Budget represented yet another act of prcrastination by a Government refusing to face up to the economic crisis before the election. Most electors are not fools.

    Suggestions that the poor Budget have taken the credit ratings agencies nearer downgradin the UK do not help. Although I begin to suspect that the credit people dare not downgrade the UK rating, which could lead to increased interest rates and a collapse in the UK economy that would lead to a worldwide economic collapse. It is one thing to have near meltdown in Ireland, Iceland or Greece, but is the UK, like a megabank, too big to be allow even to appear to risk failure?

    Back to parochial UK matters., presumably these polls are prior to the Chancellor/Shadow Chancellors debate on Channel 4. I didn’t watch this debate (I was attending the Archbishop Of Canterbury’s Lent Lecture in Canterbury Cathedral), but the consensus appears to be that Vince Cable did best and George Osborne worst. The debate confirmed what people already think of their strengths/weaknesses.

    Post-debate reaction confimred all my worst fears. The media concentrated on dicussing the three “contestants” to the exclusion ot the serious minor parties, i.e. UKIP and the Greens. Which is seriously boring as the three major parties all seem to subscribe to, arguably one could say collude to support, the international economic establishment, whilst, whether you agree with them or not, both the Greens and UKIP have different economic ideas.

    I am expecting that once the Channel 4 debate has affected public opinion (indirectly more than directly as I understand the number of TV viewers was not that great), the result may be a slight fillip to the LibDem vote, and sadly perhaps a slight decrease in Other support because of the outrageous media bias both in the TV organisation of the election debates and, apparently, media reporting of them.

  26. P.S. Richard O. I think that Blair’s reappearance will prevent some of the many ex-Labour voters who change their allegiance over Iraq from returning in order to prevent a Tory repeat of Thatcher’s crass 1980 “Cuts”. So yes, I agree he is a net vote loser for Labour.

    Incidentally, Blair may not be even voting Labour, as he lives in Buckinghamshire now. He may be a Bercow supporter!

  27. I can discern one genuine positive out of Blair’s return.

    he is completley drowned out a grown up debate about how to manage the economy.

    All the media outlets have subordinated George Osborne’s momentus decision to back Tax Cuts beneath this [snip snip snip snip snip] man!

  28. I’ll also make a quick comment on the Chancellors debate. I actually thought it was fairly tight. You could argue Cable came out best, but he was coming in with the moral highground, so I think he had the easiest job. Also, nothing he promises or says, in all liklehood, will ever need to be fulfilled, so again its fairly easy.

    I did laugh out loud at Darling’s cross party consensus comment in response to Osbourne saying he stole the stamp duty cut. It was a superb dry delivery from Darling! especially after Osbourne had set up the line earlier calling for more cross party support. genius!

  29. @ Richard O

    I think it’s a question of degree. Obviously it would be a bad idea to have on old leader back too often in a campaign but a few strategic appearances could pay dividends. Even at his least popular Blair still won comfortably.

    If DC is an heir to Blair, the appearance of the real thing could remind those on the right that that’s why they don’t like DC.

  30. Blair will be a boost for Labour, his attacks on the tories were confident and to the point. Although, all these events before the leader’s debates will change the polls very little. The debates themselves are where people will make up their minds and all will become claer!

  31. Going off at a tangent, wouldn’t it be great if one of the national papers did a feature, spread over a number of days, highlighting the many excellent mp’s we have in our country, and the various causes they work tirelessly to support?

    The problem with cynicism and exposure, all of which is richly [pardon the pun[] deserved by many politicians, is that it leads to the public saying things like: “They’re all the same.” They’re all in it for the money.” leading to “I wouldn’t vote for any of them.”

    This is not healthy for the democracy that these papers are supposed to support. I am not suggesting any lessening of vigilance against greed etc, just a better sense of balance.

  32. Is there just YouGov out tonight? Harris tomorrow?

    Is angus in hiding?

    My YG prediction

    Tory 36
    Labour 33
    Liberals 20

  33. @ SURBITON.

    “I am not at all comfortable with him campaigning”

    Is he “campaigning” actually. ?

    After his peroration today, some Labour bloke threw the Press out so TB could talk to the assembled Labour folk.

    ie-NO questions.

    How can he campaign if he is protected from questions?

    Wandering round the country surrounded by heavies, lecturing us all about how great Labour is & was, and then b*******g off before anyone can ask him anything -is that “campaigning”-is it relevant-is it persuasive?

    And today , outside the Sedgefield venue, there was a UNISON picket ( !) with those “Bliar, Warmonger ” placards we used to see -on national TV news..

    I know Mandelson is a brilliant strategist & all-but I just don’t see how this is going to work to Labour’s advantage.

  34. Having slagged off Tony Blair a little bit earlier…. I have to confess that reading extracts from his speech in the Guardian, his clarity of view and the succinct manner does draw attention.

    Despite everything, the man was a great communicator. Even I have to admit that. Like Clinton.

  35. Ask The Chancellors
    Monday 29 March 2010 | Channel 4 | 20:00 | 1.83 million viewers

    The Secret Millionaire
    Monday 29 March 2010 | Channel 4 | 21:00 | 2.5 million viewers

    The serious debate in contrast to the entertainment that followed.

  36. Eoin Clarke

    My YG prediction

    Tory 36
    Labour 33
    Liberals 20

    —————-

    You might a bit too optimistic. If the survey was done today, then Lib 20 or even 21 may be possible.

    I would say

    Tory 37
    Labour 32
    Liberals 20

  37. @Surbiton,

    I’m allowing for a bit of MoE on last nights. they had the Tories on 39…. also a rise in Libs often seems to be at the expense of the Tories

  38. Blair was surely being track-tested today. Sedgefield was considered friendly territory for rolling him out, but it looks like a strange choice to me, given that Labour apparently think he may still play well with some southerners who went over to Labour in 1997 and 2001, and stayed with them in 2005, but can’t stomach Brown.

    The whole idea seems pretty far fetched, and judging by the report on PM on Radio 4, he doesn’t seem to have enthused anyone while restimulating a fair degree of local anger in Sedgefield about the usual subjects, with Iraq topmost.

    He’s clearly failed the test and will presumably have to devote the next five weeks to making money and staying tanned – good news for Labour and disappointing for all the other parties.

  39. @ PAUL CROFT

    “This is not healthy for the democracy ”

    This illbegotten Parliament has not been healthy for democracy.

    It was the Press who told us all about it-MPs tried to hide it-from the Speaker down.

    The sooner the bad apples from this troughers’ convention have resigned, retired, slunk off, been defeated, whatever; and been replaced by young MPs who want to improve people’s lives rather than skin the taxpayer , the better.

  40. @RICHARD O
    I very much applaud the return of the Sedgefield Cicero. My view is he will damage Labour. I am sure that the Baroness, were she 20 years younger, would damage the Tories, if she came to Camerons aide. These people have got some luggage to carry. More than you need for a family holiday in Cliff Richards house in the Caribbean.

  41. @Bumpy

    Trevorsden may watch out, he has a pretender to the throne on his heels…..

  42. Ash
    Thanks for those data on viewing figures. You don’t happen to have those for the others do you? I am thinking the soaps and the football.

  43. @SURBITON………………Tony uses speechwriters, including Ally C, and he has the sense to leave ’em to it. Gordy has the same facility, but insists on editing stuff to suit his perceptions, it is a source of frustration to his support team to see their pearls returned covered with ‘tweaks.’
    If Gordon had the insight to realise that Ally is a master of the political speech he might end up leaving the stuff alone, and in turn, he would learn nuance.

  44. EOIN – For the first time I remember you let yourself down with opinion over analysis.

    Surbiton/Richard O – Let’s cut the fogs of time here. TB had ratings GB would give his right arm for, even when he stepped down. I believe he was generally not more than 3% behind in the polls even at his most unpopular.

    Iraq – not everyone by any means believe Blair is a “war criminal” or even that he was wrong about Iraq. Not even a majority. At the time a majority supported him. There were 12 protesters outside the Sedgefield hall today, 12. Do they now constitute a majority view?

    Earning Cash post PM – So what?? Really, so what? Jealousy? I just don’t get why the bloke shouldn’t earn as much as he likes if he chooses, he did his bit for Britain, he’s not PM any more.

    So what are we left with?
    – He won an unprecedented 3 terms for Labour
    – He changed Labour into what many wished it would be
    -He is the best orator Britain has produced for a LONG time.
    -He implemented many policies many Labour voters AND swing voters held dear.

    AGAIN, this is not just partisan nonsense, I haven’t listed anything untrue. We hear the opposite view all the time but that opposite view is still partisan, it’s not Holy Grail fact.

    If Tories who last week came on here arguing we must reduce the deficit now come here telling me they can afford tax cuts, allow me not to re-write history to ignore any good TB may have done.

  45. @ Paul Croft ‘wouldn’t it be great if one of the national papers did a feature, spread over a number of days, highlighting the many excellent mp’s we have in our country, and the various causes they work tirelessly to support?’

    Yes, Paul, I agree, but sadly most of them would be stopped by their owners from even considering such an idea. That’s because they are mostly owned by big businesses, whose main purpose in life is adding to their own wealth and power, and whose main interest in politics is therefore to discredit lawmakers’ efforts to act against the big media owners’ amoral vested self-interests.

  46. @Sue, true…. me is bad :(

  47. @Sue,

    In the last 17 pols of Tony Blair’s premiership Labour averaged 31 % in the opinion polls

  48. @Sue,

    In september 200 (yes 2000) Labour avergaed over seven polls 35% in the opinion polls

  49. SUE
    “There were 12 protesters outside the Sedgefield hall today, 12. Do they now constitute a majority view?”

    Since I mentioned them I guess I should reply.

    I wasn’t making a point about the number of people who dislike TB because of Iraq-though I know you are fair enough to accept there are many.

    Merely that his very presence-guarded from the Press as it was today- generates pictures on TV news which remind the viewer of the most unpopular aspect of his premiership.

    Is this helpful to GB’s prospects of re-election ?

    I can’t see how it will be.

  50. @Sue,

    in the whole of 2004 there were more than 60 polls

    Labour’s average was 35%

    Hell at one point they were down to 28%

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