There are three new polls tonight, and they all show a post-budget swing towards the Conservatives.

YouGov/Sun: CON 39%(+2), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 18%(-1)
ComRes/Independent: CON 37%(nc), LAB 30%(-2), LDEM 20%(+1)
Opinium/Express: CON 38%(+1), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 18%(+3)

YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has a 7 point lead, up from 5 in their Sunday Times poll and equalling the highest they’ve had the Conservatives this month. ComRes show the Conservatives unchanged, but Labour dropping two since the end of last month. Opinium have a ten point Conservative lead.

The changes themself are not massive, but every poll since the budget has shown a trend back towards the Conservatives. There seems little doubt that the budget has shifted things back towards the Tories a bit. The question now is whether it lasts, or whether it is just a brief downwards blip for Labour that will pass as new events (like the Conservative tax announcement or whatever coverage tonight’s Chancellor’s debate gets) take over the political news agenda.

UPDATE: Lib Dem figure from Opinium corrected (you’ll have to wait till tonight for tonight for it to get corrected in the sidebar)


508 Responses to “YouGov, ComRes and Opinium show Tory lead growing”

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  1. Has there been a poll of wales recently?

    how is the Plaid Camyru vote holding up?

    which region is showing the biggest dip in lib dem support? it is falling away quite badly now….

    This is very important if we are to have a tight election

  2. Yes, George slipped a little with his last minute remark of the Lib Dems not going to win the election. But let’s face it – they’re not are they. Forever destined to be the bridesmaids; never the bride. George said it like it is so why should we take umbrage at him being precise and to the point? Isn’t that what you want from your next government?

    The three of them came over reasonably well. Honours about even. AD was steady and calm; the sort of guy I would trust to leave my dog with when I went off on holiday (if I had a dog) or I would give the money to pay my window-cleaner in my absence (if I had a window-cleaner).

    VC is a national treasure. Always says the right thing with a little humour thrown in, like a favourite uncle at a family gathering.

    Not so sure he’d cut the mustard as chancellor though.

  3. Just to round my evening off, I still feel that when the Tory supporting media get their twopenny worth in ,GO will come up smelling of roses, people who didn’t watch will form their opinion from there. As for VC, I think that every court needs a jester :-)

  4. I’ll keep talking about the polls. YouGov which I think had the latest fieldwork, may have included that extra 1% beacuse of that, Eoin. Sound reasonable? 1% is only 1% though – we would ned a further widening to make any conclusions that were other than WMA (see I know all the jargon nowadays).

  5. @ Éoin

    do BNP like scots, I dont know much about their politics?
    ———————————————————–
    Nooooooo! They tried to get chummy with the SNP (having the N & P in common). Alex Salmond chased them with a big stick.

    BNP put up a high profile presence for Glasgow East. This time their canvassers literally got chased.

    That said, I’m sure the BNP have some Scottish supporters but none that I’ve met. And I certainly won’t have any need to mention them – or immigration – when campaigning.

  6. @Amber

    “I’m not Colin but I thought VC’s performance was popular & populist – because he can afford to be. And it had the desired effect so he obviously knows what he’s doing in that respect.”

    VC’s performance may have been popular but I would argue that he is not populist. He says it as he belives it is rather than basing his ideas on focus groups. As an example, suggesting way back in the early 2000s that government & personal borrowing should be reigned in was not exactly being populist

  7. Terryy
    Have another look at your post -it’s what the public think not just you, would you not agree?.

  8. @Howard- yes please do,,,,,,,,

    I think the key now is to explore the veracity of UNS>..

    i suspect Plaid and SNP will drift towards RED…

    I would like to know where the lib vote is fraying- based on 2005 it clearly is howard…. of course it might pick up

  9. Rather more enlightening than the ‘Chancellor debate’ was the BBC 4 on the impact of television on election politics over the last 50 years or so. Those of us of a certain age might remember that odd Tory PM, Sir Alec Douglas Home, and at the end of the BBC 4 programme there was a clip from a Robin Day interview during the 1964 election where dear old Sir Alec said that he was very much afraid that television would turn politicians into actors at the expense of proper policy discussion. Now I never thought I’d say this but he definitely had a point and I imagine that there is plenty of research showing that people decide on their vote as much on image as on policies.

    When I was involved in student politics in the mid 60s we had really lively meetings when people like Enoch Powell came to the university and this sort of things just don’t happen these days as events are rigorously controlled to ensure the best sort of media coverage – pity really!

  10. @Amber all I knew was that the BNP do not like me…

    I was in a Celtic bar in Nottingham ‘Greyfriars for owt dat know it’ and a gang staged a protest outside it… later that night it deteriorated apparently I was to return home to the idiot colony :)

  11. Now that they’ve hit a wall in the crucial economic debate, I suspect Labour’s next line of attack will be Europe where I think the Tories are genuinely in difficulty.

    Let’s not forget who finished as runners up in the Euro elections, the last time the electorate was asked a question.

  12. @Anthony……………….Do you not think that my posting in moderation on the previous thread, deserves an airing, bearing in mind the comments made by others on this one ? No big deal, but I was amazed by what was disclosed.

  13. @ RICHARD O

    The same people on here who are saying this is all ok, are the ones who predicted level pegging after the budget.
    ———————————————————-
    But in their defence, most expected a transaction or guarantee tax on the banks that would free up a little budget something for the voters.

    The entire budget ended up being a placeholder to keep the City happy. A solid performance that was marred by the ‘Thatcher’ gaffe next day.

    I appear to be the only one who is calling it a gaffe. But it was a gaffe & it caused a shuffle to the right that has cost Labour a point or two.

  14. Red Rag said: Wonder if all those posters who have been attacking the Yogov daily poll now think they are ok again because they are now seeing a rise in their supported party?

    I’m not sure I count since I support neither (and am an American) but I don’t see that it changes the fact that 1. They admit their Scottish polling is wrong but refuse to correct it (which makes me ask what else are they not bothering to fix in their weighting) and 2. They don’t weight for likelihood to vote.

    They probably show overall trends as well as any pollster but making predictions from their polls? You just about might as well look at sheep entrails.

  15. I think the ICM / YOUGOV convergence vindicates both polling companies,

    Regardless of what results they show, they smack of quality.

    Populus and Ipsos arent bad either

    And I have no doubt one day we will all say the same about old Angus

  16. Amber, I don’t think the comment has quite sunk in in Scotland but if it doesn’t do them serious damage there, you will have seen a major miracle. The Scots by and large really loathe Mrs. Thatcher and that’s putting it mildly.

    Yes, I think it was a gaffe. Slap your heartland in the face why don’t you WHILE in the midst of some pretty serious scandals. Oops.

  17. For all the talk about how much 1%-point up or down means, read a bit of 538.com and chill. E.g.
    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/03/uk-polling-numbers-not-sufficiently.html

  18. @ PETERBELL

    We’ll need to agree to differ re: VC. I don’t dislike him – but worrying about personal debt was very populist. My nan & ma were tutting about it at exactly the same time he was. And I wouldn’t want them to be up for chancellor on the strength of it, is all I’m saying ;-)

  19. @EOIN CLARKE
    “One observation: the best way to get a lib dem leaning voter to vote tactically for your party? Be nice to, and about, Vince.”
    If that were so, there would be no Conservatives picking up any LD tactical votes. This is not merely out of choice. The Tories know that they have a number of key contest in LD marginals, and being nice to Vince will only increase votes for Vince’s party. So they won’t be nice to Vince.
    As for Labour. I rather think they will. Labour must know by now that they cannot realistically get a majority, and are really struggling to be the largest party. They know Vince is popular, and are prepared to dangle the AV carrot. This should play well for Labour after the election – if they can get close enough to the Tories.
    I happen to think the contest is already over, but i’d like to believe we can still have an exciting GE night.

  20. I notice that one or two people have commented on Vince Cable being ‘populist’. I have noticed that this is often used as some sort of critiscism.

    However, populism is defined by the dictionary as political ideas and activities that are intended to represent ordinary people’s needs and wishes as opposed to those of an elite. isn’t this what a democracy is supposed to be? And isn’t that what all politicians at least pretend to support?

    On the poll itself, I am interested that the range between the shares of the vote of the various parties are :
    Con 37-39 Difference 2%
    Lab 28-32 Difference 4%
    Lib 16-20 Difference 4%, and by implication
    Others 11-18 Difference 7%

    This reinforces my theory that ‘Others’ could well have a significant effect on the result of the election, particularly if it is close. Will those 7% extra that Opinium are finding switch to one of the main parties, or will we for instance see a massive SNP sweep of Scotland?

  21. @ RAF & DWIN

    So ….. does nobody think Tony will be a game changer then?

  22. Yes but Mr Holden – we have labour on 30-32 (some say lower).
    This is not a winning position. And I cannot believe, though the swingometer tells me different, that it is a hung position.

    That it is is a bad bad bad position for labour. That is a fact. As leader of a political party would you rather be on 39 or 32?
    But there are a lot of ‘others’ out there who are not probably committed, but will UKIPPERS SNPERS (not to mention the BNPERS) and GREENERS go back to Labour? Seems to me the target labour market is the LDs

  23. @Amber,

    Err… in a word. No.

  24. @ Pete B

    I think that your “Others” range may be a bit too wide as it assumes extremes where the three main parties poll at their individual extremes together.

  25. Amber – if you mean Blair, the only way I can see him affecting anything is to make Labour even less likely to achieve a hung parliament. If Labour’s secret weapon is a man who led the country into an illegal war, and was Prime Minister when the police had to raid Downing Street, and was implicated in many scandals such as ‘cash for honours’ and the death of David Kelly, then they really are desperate.

  26. Amber Star – Tony Blair will be a big ‘game changer’ I think 3%-5% on Conservative support! Perhaps Mandelson has realised this and that is why he is being given a rehersal first to try and gauge public reaction?

  27. Eoin Clarke, I will give you that they have to some degree converged judging from the last ICM poll but I’ll have to see more from ICM to see if that lasts. I trust ICM on their good record.

    I have no grudge against the YouGov, but don’t trust weighting based on newspaper readership instead of likelihood to vote. Their comment that they wouldn’t bother to correct Scottish weighting means that it at least a small amount further skews their polls and gives Labour a dishonest political tool (which other parties would use as well but it’s Labour that benefits in this case) since they WILL use those inaccurately weighted sub-polls in campaigning.

    I have never before seen a pollster admit their weightings were wrong but state they weren’t going to bother to correct them.

    All right. Maybe the entrails remark was hyperbole but I’m a writer. Sue me. ;-)

  28. For me this sort of polling points to a hung parliament. David Cameron will get to be PM but only as a large minority, very like Harold Wilson’s position after the 1st 1974 election. Better than losing, but not exactly enviable.

    Anyway, talking about tax cuts is always popular, regardless of feasability. Not as good as the real thing, though.

  29. @Andrew Myers
    All I did was subtract the totals of the three main parties from 100% in each poll. I was just trying to show that while the Tory vote seems pretty consistent, and the other two fairly close, there seems to be a large variation in the ‘Others’ vote, and the true destination of these could affect the overall result in a big way, especially as Others tend to be concentarted in specific areas, and hence a relatively small number of sets.

  30. @Amber

    I think Blair will play very badly to anyone who’s listening. Clear tactical error which confirms my growing feeling that New Labour have not adapted to the situation in which they find themselves.

    Would prefer your tutting nan, to be fair.

  31. @J R Tom

    Well they forecast things with remarkable accuracy so I for one will continue to hang on their every pronouncement :)

  32. ‘seats’, not ‘sets’ in my last post.

  33. @AMBER STAR
    I’m sorry, are you asking whether the only politician less popular than Gordon Brown can help Labour to win the GE (in between resolving the ME conflict, and picking up medals in the US)? I don’t think so.
    Tony Blair was a master and delivering speeches, and had the relatively rare gift of being able to convince many across the aisle of his point of view. But he has come to represent all the public dislike about the government and new labour.
    I might be wrong. Maybe he can turn things around. but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
    Labour need to find some passion from within the current crop. Show some heart. Some commitment. Something to rouse the public out of their slumber. And who do they have at the helm? Brown, Darling and Mandelson!
    And it matters. Particularly in these times. People want to be uplifted. The Conservatives are at least seizing on this idea. And it is having some effect.

  34. About where Labour might get some extra support from: UKIP – no (they’d be more likely to go Conservative) BNP – no (I doubt anyone would want to do anything to please their voters) Green – no (just not enough to bother with).

    That leaves LibDems where they could possibly pick up say 4-5% support with the right message. But I’m not sure they’re in a good position to do this.

  35. Amber, Tony is a marmite figure, and ofcourse it d epends on what he says tomorrow.

    i think the guy is a tremendous speaker and will produce some great lines – he (and his team) are the master of soundbites……BUT by entering arena he will face criticism – earnings, iraq etc and if a PM has to rely on a former PM it is a political gamble. The fact Lab are going to monitor reaction says it all.

  36. “Well they forecast things with remarkable accuracy so I for one will continue to hang on their every pronouncement :)”

    Yeah, despite the so-called likelihood to vote contention, I found out the other day that YouGov polls are generally pretty accurate at forecasting voting intention. The most accurate, I would say.

  37. @ JR TOMLIN

    Your comment is fair enough because you said using polls as predicters is false. And any reputable pollster would agree with you – although sheep entrails is artistic license. BTW we’re British so we won’t sue you because our lawyers want paid up front ;-)

  38. Amber & Éoin

    I can’t imagine what Brown is thinking of bringing Blair into the election campaign. My immediate reaction was ”oh no” – he is so massively unpopular amongst even many Labour supporters – I think it will play badly.
    I hope he keeps a very low profile ;-)

  39. dont think anyone bombed the debate tonight on c4.i do however see quite clearly that vince cable is the most popular man due to his foreseeing of the debt bubble which probably was the reason for his decent reaction.anyone who thinks any of them bombed tonight then i believe you should probably take off your red/blue/yellow tinted sunglasses off

  40. @Amber AL J,

    can you please tell me that Tony Blair will not be allowed north of the M25 otherwise I fear meltdown…

    Just when the scots were starting to come back to Labour and the North East was looking solid, what is he thinking…..

    I say we club together and buy him a first class frebbie trip to florida- he wouldn’t dare refuse would he?

  41. @ JAIME

    Would prefer your tutting nan, to be fair.
    ——————————————
    LOL :-)

    @ AL J, Éoin, RAF, DWIN

    Well, that’s a resounding ‘no’ to Tony then, from our straw poll.

    So he’ll need to give a bl**dy brilliant speech to convince us he’s not a liability…..

  42. @ Eoin
    Cherie wouldn’t let him.

  43. Amber, you missed me out. I’m hurt.

  44. Amber & Éoin

    Please tell me when his speech is due. I musn’t miss it ;-)

  45. @ PETE B

    Nope, I was saving a whole post for you :-)

    You have now created the unedifying mental picture of Tony & Cherie – toting Louise Vitton bags – trotting around the SE pretending there’s no recession.

  46. @Amber, Pete B, Al J

    Tony: “look into my eyes, look into my eys……….”

  47. Éoin

    ”trust in me” is from the ‘Jungle Book’ lol

  48. Amber: Apparently officially there isn’t a recession (tell that to the folk on pay freezes, out of work etc)

    Eoin: Would that be the famous Demon Eyes?

    Anyway, ahving stirred it up, I’m off to bed now. goodnight all.

    PS Don’t forget to watch those ‘Others’

  49. @Amber AL J, Pete B,

    I’ll be taking beta blockers for a month

  50. Howard,

    I’ve had another look at my post and it stands as written.

    From tonight’s poll results the public would appear to agree with my general sentiments.

    Would you not agree?

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