I’m expecting several polls tonight as the papers commission surveys to test the post-budget mood. First out of the traps is a new ICM poll in the News of the World, topline figures are CON 39%(+1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(nc) – so a slight widening of the Conservative lead. More to come later.

UPDATE: Two more polls: YouGov in the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). There is also a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday, Sky have only mentioned the Conservative and Labour figures, but they are 37%(+1), LAB 30%(-4). So far all three are showing some degree of increase in the Conservative lead – the budget does appear to be having a negative impact for the government.


655 Responses to “Post budget Sunday polling”

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  1. No talk so far tonight of ‘Conservative panic’, or the ‘momentum being with Labour’?

    What a difference a few polls make.

    Eoin, yes you did in ‘todays’ post say the 2% was an outlier. Also I would agree that the Conservative lead is ~7%.

  2. @Colin.

    Incidentally, I think the whole Tax cut thing will play brilliant with a portion of the voters… enough so to edge you back towards 40%. Tactically, the right thing to do, will change a narrative you guys were losing..

  3. So far all three are showing some degree of increase in the Conservative lead –

    How so? Only ICM & BPIX are showing +1 for the Conservatives.

  4. Lead

  5. @bill roy

    i urge caution,

    post budget poll dips usually correct themselves soon after

  6. I don’t really have a problem with Bill Roy’s adjustment on YouGov figures to account for likelihood to vote. It is a reality that the Labour vote is less likely to turn out, and his adjustment doesn’t seem unreasonable. In fact, haven’t YouGov in the past weighted by likelihood to vote just before the election?

    I think 7% lead is realistic at the moment. I don’t think 7% will be enough for a majority however.

  7. ‘@ eoin clarke
    I am a historian as well and I am Colins mate. I am not hanging back just hav’nt got anything to say. Er….perhaps Tory vote in meltdown.

  8. @Statto

    we are mere mortls,

    it smacks of arrogance to start adjusting polling companies without the blindest bit of notion what we are talking about..

    that goes for old angus also

  9. @Éoin……………..It was a phoney budget during a phoney war, when campaigning starts the incumbents lose their advantage……!

  10. RE: LIBDEM

    Nick Clegg doesn’t get to choose which party his team would support in a hung parliament.

    The LDs have all sorts of complicated constitutional stuff that stops the leader making that kind of decision based on his own preferences.

  11. EOIN

    RE Revenue pa from NIC-I refer you to “Tax Ready Reckoner & Tax Reliefs”, by HM Treasury-Dec 2009-Page 15-Table 5

    RE “Tax Cuts”
    Deciding not to implement a future tax increase proposal by another political party is not a “Tax Cut”-It is a different approach to the Budget for that period.

    I don’t know what GO will do or not do.

    I suspect he wants very much to zap the Labour NIC tax on jobs increase. The companies which create jobs , say it will lose 57,000 jobs-so it’s a no-brainer.

    I very much hope he commits to that if nothing elsea growing real productive jobs is the most important thing to do now.

  12. EOIN – you save me so much typing!!

  13. Amber – you will have cheered me up if that is the case. Seemed to me if it was up to Clegg, I’d get me coat.

  14. @Anthony,

    can you take me off Moderation please as my comments are taking too long to appear and therefore become out of date within minutes -PLEASE! :o

  15. For thos einterested how Tories will be interpreting these results= they will probably be concerned that BPIX and YG have their vote at 37%

    it is not really shifting upwards,

    it is clear that BPIX and YG disagree over how to weight labour but the both seem to agree on the tory vote..

    as other results ocme in the tory vote will be very interesting

    The ‘gold standard’ has them at 39%- that will please them…

    @Sue,

    Why thank you… :)

  16. “The LDs have all sorts of complicated constitutional stuff that stops the leader making that kind of decision based on his own preferences.”

    It’s the Queen who’s the “kingmaker” in that situation

  17. @ ROLAND

    “and I am Colins mate”

    ;-)

    Feeling a bit cosier this evening?
    It’s tempting isn’t it?

    We all need that safe feeling.

    But Tory supporters know, that out there-in the dark places where polls are weighted in the balance-someone is working on a 1%er with which to destroy our nascent confidence & what is left of our brittle sanity.

  18. @Colin

    we are gettin a bit pedantic now…

    those figures are based a) on projectiosn and b) on old data (2009/10 figures)…. very senseible way to do it but we cant know for certain what the future figures will be.. if unemploment falls, economy recovers and wages climb it is very logical fo rthem to be revised upwards… afterall they thought the bank tax woul dyiled a lot less

    in fact has a revenue figure ever been right?

    p.s. the budget becomes law so technically it is a cut…

  19. @Colin……..In those dark times, invoke the spirit of Maggie, it always works. :-)

  20. Mere mortals we certainly are, but you’ll find a lot less contradiction in the headline poll figures if you allow for YouGov having no-past vote weighting, Angus Reid and TNS/BNRB failing to correct false recall, and expect variation week to week in Opinium, Harris and MORI (no political weighting).

    Of course UKPR average always does a fairly good job at approximating this.

  21. COLIN

    I don’t know what GO will do or not do.

    I suspect he wants very much to zap the Labour NIC tax on jobs increase. The companies which create jobs , say it will lose 57,000 jobs-so it’s a no-brainer.

    I very much hope he commits to that if nothing elsea growing real productive jobs is the most important thing to do now.

    ————————————————

    This propaganda that any increase in NI is a tax on jobs is just pure bunkum !

    Wasn’t the same rubbish peddled in 1997 when the Minimum Wage was in the Labour Manifesto ? Was it half a million jobs will go ? And how many jobs actually went ? Probably a negative number because it actually boosted the economy.

  22. “p.s. the budget becomes law so technically it is a cut…”

    If that makes you happy Eoin….. ;-)

    The companies who would have paid it will certainly be.

    I am amazed that you support it.

  23. Mark – you are off pre-moderation. Be good ;)

    The second to last person I took off pre-moderation thinking they were a reformed character took about a fortnight to go back to partisan ranting.

  24. “This propaganda that any increase in NI is a tax on jobs is just pure bunkum !”

    I really do hope that this becomes a Labour Poster if GO commits.

  25. Eoin

    We don’t have much information about what BPIX do with their weightings, but their outputs smack of a non-politically weighted series of polls.

  26. @Colin,

    I think the voters like to feel they know a party

    Tories are tax cutters- they should stand up and be proud… it would push them closer to 40% but rule out a coalition- their choice…. certainly not mine

  27. After watching Brown’s Glasgow spech today I cannot believe that he can survive. The more the voters see of him in the next few weeks the more likely they will elect a Conservative government. Labour should have changed their leader months or years ago if they were serious about a fourth term

  28. The election campaign hasn’t yet begun and the Tory lead is widening as I suspected it would.
    I think the “presedential” debates will be more influential than people realise and I think that Brown will come off worse in the debates against Cameron who is a smooth talker and very quick to think on his feet. Cameron is far more likely to be able to sell you a used car than Brown is!
    My own view is that the prospect of a hung parliament is actually minimal…..the Conservatives will win and with a small but working majority of 20-30. Hovever I also think that with the level of cuts required to bring the finances back to order, the misfortune for them is that within six months, they will be even more unpopular than labour are now. A pyrrhic victory indeed.

  29. @Surbiton…………Difficult to tell, since most of the jobs created were in the public or related sectors. An interesting challenge for an analyst, did the minimum wage boost the economy ?

  30. Colin – “But Tory supporters know, that out there-in the dark places where polls are weighted in the balance-someone is working on a 1%er with which to destroy our nascent confidence & what is left of our brittle sanity.”

    You say the nicest things.:)

  31. SUE

    ;-)

  32. Perhaps the budget a factor, but also the Labour Cabs for hire at £5k per day didn’t help.

    Some of Labours vote may be soft, so they turn into don’t knows in the main, rather than switch to Tories or others. Come election day, will they turn out to vote to stop the Tories ?

    If Cameron with his new marketing team do not get future posters right and they are seen as too negative, some of these soft Labour votes could swing back to Brown. The biggest worry for people is the Tories taking money out of the economy this years causing a double dip, with more unemployment etc. The Tories would be better to start to be positive about their policies and not attack Brown.

  33. We all wait with baited breath for more polls!

    I wonder if there is a recognised medical/psychiatric condition for those wanting poll results? :)

  34. @ Anthony

    Thnaks Anthony – but I always thought i was a good boy anyway-lol

    But thank you :o

  35. @Eoin Clarke

    Tories are tax cutters

    —–

    What a lot of old oft-repeated nonsense that is.

    During the 18 years of the last UK Conservative government, they regularly cut direct taxation but, just as regularly, they increased indirect taxation. By the time they left office in 1997 the net tax burden was the same as when they got in in 1979.

    Conservative tax “cuts” are typically redistributive tax measures and not cuts per se. And the same can be said for Labour. Where the two parties differ is in to whom and from whom the tax is given and taken.

    A shame – if not a scandal – that that ‘myth’ has always been allowed to run.

  36. I also think that this 1% swing was probably not related to the budget at all but due to the shenanigans of the Blair outriders.

    Where was Milburn and C. Clarke ? That would have completed the gang of 5.

  37. I think Labour will be pretty pleased that the post-budget polling shows relatively little movement. As Anthony has pointed out, previous budgets have been poorly received, and this one could only have been a political risk.

    The focus will now shift to Osborne, who has repeatedly promised more detail, on what exactly the Conservatives are going to do to cut the deficit faster and deeper. The very simple message from Labour will be that the pain will be worse under the Tories, and priorities wrong (IHT cut, etc.).

    For me, it is the public reaction to the Conservative alternative that will determine this election.

  38. @ Surbiton.

    Nonsense, the Tory vote has sneaked up because people are starting to realise if they are not careful they will let Brown in by the back door perhaps even on only 32% of the Popular vote which would be tragic for Democracy.

    The Polls over the next week should prove interesting as the Budget really sinks in and of course the Tory Statement on Tax and Spending early in the week.

    All interesting stuff :o

  39. Interesting situation. Weighted Moving Average= 37:31:19, but here are the trends:
    * 1 month view: no trend at all – R2=0 on both the WMA and unwieghted.
    * 40 day view: Downtrend in CLead from 10.5 to 4.5 with R2 of 0.66.
    * 2 week view: Downtrend in CLead from 7.5 to 5 with an R2 of 0.49.

    So if you are a C-Optimist you say: “CLead will probably increase by 5pts in campaign, position flat at the moment so CLead 11% at GE”

    And if a L-Optimist you might say: “If 40-day trend continues we’ll have a lead of 2% at the GE”

    FWIW Spread betting is 53:38:8.7% on CMaj:Hung:LMaj.

  40. I think Labour has peaked. The budget was probably their last trump card but it lacked detail. People are still unsure about Cameron and Osborne’s image is not right.

    I think the Tories have been holding back their policies in case Labour pinches them (one of them – the stamp duty was tory policy). Cameron will have to give more detailed policies of the inevitible cuts.

    Its match point to Cameron – will it be an ace or a Double-fault?

  41. Mark Johnson – Chadderton – Lancashire
    @ Surbiton.

    perhaps even on only 32% of the Popular vote which would be tragic for Democracy.
    ———————————————-

    Due you really think that the Great British public huddle together and contemplate what a disaster a 32% governmemnt might be like some sad souls here – or do they watch Eastenders and MoTD ?

    I suspect the latter.

  42. ROLAND HAINES

    “I am a historian as well”

    Me too – what is this? – a convention?

  43. MARK JOHNSON:

    The conservative lead doubled immediately after the budget in 2008 and 2009. From a Conservative perspective they would be frustrated that the lead didn’t widen as much. From a Labour perspective they would be happy that the lead widened only a little. This is just my guess.

  44. Just scanned through the first 50 comments on the BBC website on their response to the Labour pledges. They were ALL scathing in their criticism!

    Surely at least three quarters of the people of this country have a strong desire to put an end to this government. The problem they have is with the alternatives.

  45. I have just caught up with the post-budget poll info in the previous thread due to intenet problems. Surprised at the low rating for Clegg/Cable re the economy. . Most commentators and even some opponents compliment Cable on his understanding of the economic situation. In addition, just a few days ago a poll re tghe economy showed Cable at 44% cf Darling 23% and Osborne 21%. Are these latest data once again due to TV visibility during and after the budget.

  46. NBeale,

    Interesting weighted average. In the swingometer, that gives CON 1 more seat than LAB.

  47. @ Statto –
    I think Labour will be pretty pleased that the post-budget polling shows relatively little movement. As Anthony has pointed out, previous budgets have been poorly received, and this one could only have been a political risk.

    The focus will now shift to Osborne, who has repeatedly promised more detail, on what exactly the Conservatives are going to do to cut the deficit faster and deeper. The very simple message from Labour will be that the pain will be worse under the Tories, and priorities wrong (IHT cut, etc.).

    For me, it is the public reaction to the Conservative alternative that will determine this election.

    – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

    A very good summary of the current position.

  48. Just a thought – once the election is called, if the Finance Bill has not already been passed, it can only be passed with the agreement of the Tories. What if they refuse to let it go through unless the N.I. increase is removed?

  49. It seems rather optimistic to see these polls as good for Labour. The Budget was the last big opportunity for them, a shot to nothing almost, to make an impression as a Government on undecided voters. They seem to have squandered it. Once the election campaign starts I don’t expect to see the polls varying much from where we are now. I think the Tories will be sleeping a lot easier tonight.

  50. I am in moderation? I guess something I said was out of place, I just do not know what?

    Oh, in a previous career I was an archaeologist (better than historians, we had far more to drink at the end of the day :) )

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