I’m expecting several polls tonight as the papers commission surveys to test the post-budget mood. First out of the traps is a new ICM poll in the News of the World, topline figures are CON 39%(+1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(nc) – so a slight widening of the Conservative lead. More to come later.

UPDATE: Two more polls: YouGov in the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). There is also a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday, Sky have only mentioned the Conservative and Labour figures, but they are 37%(+1), LAB 30%(-4). So far all three are showing some degree of increase in the Conservative lead – the budget does appear to be having a negative impact for the government.


655 Responses to “Post budget Sunday polling”

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  1. Sorry Sue…

    Who did you saying was fudging here…couldn’t work out what you mean…?

  2. @ EOIN
    “tinkering was genius,

    expect a 2% lift in the polls by wednesday”

    I’m not sure about”genius”.
    Necessary I would accept-though I would point out that the GO proposal to reduce Child Tax Credit for top earners resulted in GB saying -Cons remove tax credits from the Middle Classes!!!

    I mean-so mutch of this stuff is dancing around on tiptoes, trying to avoid present & future politically slanted elephant traps, talking about numbers which are quite franly marginal, when compared to the Totality of Government Spending.

    I get a bit fed up with it-all tactics & no reality.

    ……anyway -I accept your point in principle-but I still think a headliner zapping of the “Labour Payroll Tax Increae” would have carried more weight.

    Using Gershon is certainly neat-it blunts, or even negates almost anything that Labour throw at it.

    …….but it’s still not the real world Eoin.

    We aint going to find out about that-from any of them-till after we have voted for them.

    Great isn’t it?

  3. @Colin

    It is great. The biggest threat to this country was a collapse in front line services. Forcing a debate over deficit reduction woul dhave increased this threat. I am glad it shifted back to good old fashion blue cuts versus yellow and red spend.

    Better the devil you know that some unscrupulous battle to the bottom.

    The public will be much more engaged by this type of debate that the inexorable march to the bottom.

    Can we call time on the deficit baloney now? ;)

  4. Eoin – thank you, my slip, my above post should of course refer in the first sentence too ‘budget cuts’ and not tax cuts!

    (Should concentrate more on my typing and not my cup of tea! :) )

  5. @ SUE
    “On the whole, I hate negative campaigning full stop, so not loving the GO poster.”

    Thank you Sue.

    You are one of the most partisan ( and loyal) Labour supporters on here, though you try manfully ( whoops-sorry-womanfully ‘;-) ) to control it like the rest of us.

    But there does come a point when you are willing to acknowledge a point made by your opponents if it has validity.

    That attitude makes this site all the more pleasant & constructive an experience.

    Hope that’s not patronising ( I know how you lefties feel about these things ! ) – it is meant sincerely.

  6. The tabloids will love tax cuts…………the conversation doesn’t resonate with the public, high minded financial argument makes people think they’re being patronised and brain washed.
    It’s the pay packet stupid ! :-)

  7. @ EOIN

    I think we are talking at cross purposes my friend :-

    “Can we call time on the deficit baloney now? ”

    Absolutely not-it isn’t-it’s key to getting back to real jobs & real growth in the private sector. It’ss key to sustainable public services ( unless you want tax increases to pay for a Debt interest bill larger than the Education budget) -its key to financing the unavoidable deficits ( ie the public spending on tick) of the next parliament …..it’s key to everything.

    Calling it “baloney” is literally incredible-so yes, you & I can leave it now-definitely.

  8. @Colin okies ;)

    Talk about the deficit and the tax cuts by all means. :)

  9. @ken,

    If the Tories win you should copyright that phrase…. :)

  10. @Eoin

    “The biggest threat to this country was a collapse in front line services”

    This is complete nonsense Eoin.

    It is lazy partisan rhetoric.

    It is emotive for effect ,as opposed to informative.

    It isn’t going to happen-whoever is in power.

  11. Ha! Thanks Colin, I’m not your average leftie!!

    Polly Ticks – As Colin (rightly IMO) points out, it would have been better if he could have said “NI increase reversed, paid for by X, no more Labour Tax on jobs.”

    Hammond sat there shifting about, saying yes it would come from “efficiency savings”, refusing to list them, not scrapping it altogether and that gave him no heavy artillery to counter-act the “How on earth can you give money away with a stonking deficit” argument.

    I was prepared to believe EOIN that it would be a poll booster IF they could cost it in a way that the public could believe easily. It didn’t look like they’d done that to me and I think the public are MOST sceptical of “efficiency savings”.

    Believe me, I was prepared to be very worried indeed, but I think they blew it.

  12. @Colin,

    On wednesday you will see a 2% climb in support fo rth eTories. The voters will love oyur tax cut policy.

    I am sorry old chap but the did not like your auster message, I am not sure they well labour Labour Thatcherites (who would have thought) harking on about it either.

    The more the Tories stoke up the deficit debate, the more they will harm the electoral benefit of their own tax cut…

    Read Liam Byrne’s resposne to Osborne this morning. it is the first tiem in my lifetiem I have ever heard a Labour poltiician evoke the cause of deficit cuttign to a tory. I had to blink twice.

    George Osborne’s strategy will be highly successful……

  13. ONS published this on 26th March :-

    “Business investment for the fourth quarter of 2009 is estimated to be 4.3 per cent lower than the previous quarter, and 23.5 per cent lower than the same period last year.

    Declines in business investment occurred in most industries. There was a larger fall in manufacturing than non-manufacturing. Private sector manufacturing had the largest fall, which is down by 5.2 per cent, private sector non-manufacturing is down by 4.5
    per cent and public corporations non-manufacturing slightly offset the fall which is up by 0.6 per cent. ”

    Well timed for this evening -from GO’s point of view one would imagine.

  14. We’re talking about winning elections, regardless of the deficit, which in the public’s view, and incidentally mine, is manageable somehow, but we’ll deal with it later, great British trait.
    Since neither party seems particularly keen to disclose their strategy, the public feel that things ain’t that bad, and a tax cut is just great.
    Navel gazing and economic literacy are not features one finds when speaking to the average voter, or perhaps I’m wrong. :-)

  15. @Sue: Do you really think this tax cut will go down badly in the polls?

    Seriously, how can anyone defend increasing the tax on employing most people when we are coming very slowly out of a recession? And even if you would rather have more public sector waste and higher taxes on jobs, do you really think that will go down well with the voters?

  16. Sorry if that was partisan AW, or was it a wordpress automatic? I meant to answer Polly Ticks question fairly, but I guess it did favour my own viewpoint.
    She got me nabbed at last?

  17. @ Eoin
    “On wednesday you will see a 2% climb in support fo rth eTories”

    Believe it if I see it Eoin.

    I’m way past any ability to judge. The events of the last weeks have anesthetized my senses.

    I have no idea what the electorate is thinking -if indeed they are.

    I have no idea what the polls are telling me-if indeed they have a message.

  18. @Éoin………………..Thanks, I’ll get on the case. :-)

  19. Can anyone shed light on the following

    Places like Electoral Calculus predict Conservatives short of overall majority by approx 25. This site mentions Conservatives short by 40. Polls are geenrally tightening and Conservatives will probably win the popular vote by 3-5 percentage points. Given the seat bias in the system to Labour, the seat predictons above are in the right ball park (Conservatives 285-300, Labour 265-280).

    The point is that the spreadbetting sites are quoting the Conservatives at 325-330 and Labour 228-233. Now, traditionally, bookies are very good at assessing outcomes – and they are bettng the house on the accuracy of their predictions (especially the spreadbetters). If we geenrally believe the polls (and th associated seat presictions), then we should all be buying Labour (@233) and selling Conservatives (@325) and making soem money. If we dont, then this implies we fundamentally believe that the polls are SIGNIFICANTLY underestimating the poll gap.

    Me – I believe the polls and think the bookies have mis-priced

  20. @The city so far has not reacted negatively to Tory tax cuts. It will hardly impact triple AAA rating or turn us into greece…

    in short the Troeis narrative we witnessed since October 2009 is dead.

    A new narrative has opened, though understandably tory posters will take a while to come round.

    Ken and NBeale are 100% corect. The public will soon forget greece and rating that seemed more suitable to a washing machine’s energy efficiency. It is money in pockets time and its sure to impress some of the electorate.

    It will, if Cameron follows suit, allow DC to open up his positiv emessage again.

    A reason the Tories have longed so wrong footed is that nobody expected the credit crucnh..

    the Tories were alwyas going to fight this election by targetting the tax burden. The credit crunch just go in the way.

    Now if the tories comemntators can all sing the same tune that is less talk of deficit and more tlak of talk burdens then the electorate will by it as a credibile policy.

    A danger, which occurs to me might emerge is if some commentators get stuck on the old narrative. They need to drop it like a hot coal for this policy to work…

  21. Nbeale – I AM beginning to feel like the only sane one in the asylum I confess.
    Oh, I don’t know, maybe I’m blinded by partisan glasses but the u-turning of it all (not the NI cut itself, the MONEY) seems like staggering opportunism to me. I just can’t get my head round how tax giveaways will fool anyone now after the months of “austerity” messages, Not just NI, but marriage, IHT and corporation.

    I guess we’ll just have to sit back and wait for
    1) How it plays in the media
    2) How it plays tonight
    3) How it plays with the public.

  22. Mr Clarke – I looked at figures in the month which both leaders came to power. Browns election created a band wagon of good poll results – then they fell right away and but for a bit of a blip around autumn 2008 they have been poor ever since.

    The Tories will want to be higher than they are but I believe the expenses scandal has increased the numbers responding either – others, don’t know, or will not vote.

    Thats a lot of minds to change a lot of undecideds to convince. If there is a high level of ‘others’ then its asking a lot to get the tories over 39. But historically since Brown came to power its been rare (speaking from memory here) to see Labour much over 32.

    The efficiency savings announced By the tories are actually Darlings efficiency savings announced in the budget. They exist – labour say so themselves. But they choose to increase taxes rather than make them now. So Sue and Co can complain all they like but they should ask why Darling cannot explain his own efficiency savings.

    And whats wrong with making them now? Inefficiency is surely bad – especially if its being paid for by tax increases and taxes on jobs at that. If these NI increases go ahead employers will sack more people and take on fewer. Workers will have less money in their pockets as well. So not going ahead with it will add not subtract to the ‘stimulous’.

  23. “less talk of deficit and more of tax burdens, then the public will buy it as a credible policy….”

    sorry for spellings I will slow down! :)

  24. Colin – snap again, it’s like a love in today!!
    We are both obviously so disorientated by the constant shifting sands we are wearied and need a rest

  25. I resent any implication that Tory tax cuts are not targeted at the comfortably off and downright wealthy. Any notion that two Eton boys have any thought for the less well off is to be depreciated.

    I will be voting Tory under protest if I feel anyone and anything but my own narrow interests are being served.

  26. @colin – “Using Gershon is certainly neat-it blunts, or even negates almost anything that Labour throw at it.”

    Disagree. For a start, the change for individuals is minor and now complicated, as you say. Second – Gershon has been used not to cost it, but as a fig leaf. Gershon’s very limited notes are based on assumptions and he has signed them off for 2011/12 only – no explanation whether these savings will hold for subsequent years when at least £4b pa is needed. Thirdly, the Tories admit they haven’t seen details of the contracts they expect to renegotiation – basing confirmed tax cuts on assumed contract alterations is not proper costing. Finally – as Osborne effectively pointed out last week, the labour ‘savings’ are vague and wooly – he has no idea whether Darling has costed such measures in already, and I am almost certain that Labour will now come up with figures to show how Osborne’s extra spending cuts are already part of darling’s plans. If the Tories can wait till after the Budget to announce tax cuts, Labour can play the game too and wait to specify spending cuts after the Tory tax policy has been flushed out.

    I don’t think any of the above would make a blind bit of difference to the polls however if the cut was substantial and simply. It’s not, and my prediction is that it become mired in classic trench warfare political dispute and disappear as a polling positive pretty rapidly. Like Sue, I was expecting some excellently thought through policy that would be pretty irresistable – I’m afraid we’re back to some fairly base political opportunism. I could be wrong but I suspect the polls will start to reflect declining confidence on the Tory economic policy. I speak as someone who really wants to see a strong cut in employers NI payments as a means to maintain and boost employment. Employees NI cuts should wait in my view.

    Some great spoof Saatchi posters. Probably the best though – grinning Brown on one side and gurning Cameron the others, caption ‘Whatever happens we’re f*cked’.

  27. See, even Mr Trev doesn’t think any efficiency savings to be found ought to go to paying down the deficit any more.
    No point debating it further really, is there?

    It’s stuff like this that make me feel my boundless optimism and sense that politics means something could be unfounded……

  28. “A danger, which occurs to me might emerge is if some commentators get stuck on the old narrative. They need to drop it like a hot coal for this policy to work…”

    You clearly weren’t listening to GO Eoin.

    Reducing Labour’s Payroll Tax increase is to help the Recovery-which-according to Darling will be responsible for a major part of Labour’s deficit reduction plan.

    If Byrne wants this growth so much he should not have raised the tax on employing people.

    There is no “old” narrative Eoin-except in your fertile imagination.

    There is just the same narrative-get the public finances under control-now added to which -don’t let Labour tax jobs at the end of a recession.

    It’s all quite seamless.
    Deconstructing it shows you have failed to follow it’s logic.

  29. @Trevorsden,

    that is the best post I have read from you. A lot of undecided voters may well come on board for the Tories.

    Effectively Labour have boxed themselves in it is true. They have been too cautious, thinking that this was demanded by the public. While the polling results showed that it was a fairly safe budget. It left an open goal for the Tories.

    Osborne deserves a lot of credit for this. This public I suspect will give it to his party but not necessarily to him.

    Wednesday night’s YouGov predicition

    Tories 38%
    Labour 31%

  30. stonking

  31. @Colin

    The elctorate will wnat to buy the tax cuts notion…

    there is less likliehood of them doing it if in the same breath the Tory’s continue the deficit talk

    polling has shown that voters like simple policies plainly put

    all things to all women will not work

  32. @ Sue
    “We are both obviously so disorientated by the constant shifting sands we are wearied and need a rest”

    I,ve just choked on my tea laughing.

    ;-) ;-) ;-)

  33. @Sue Marsh……………Did you ever see the Gary Larsen cartoons where a dog owner was talking to her pet dog, she was saying….sit down, be a good dog etc., but for every command the dog was thinking, ‘food.’ A bit like politicians talking about deficits etc., all the punters are hearing is ‘tax cuts’, more money at the end of the month’. I could of course be wrong and turkeys will start voting for Christmas, and bears will stop sh—ing in the woods. Love your energy though. :-)

  34. @ ALEC

    “I speak as someone who really wants to see a strong cut in employers NI payments as a means to maintain and boost employment. Employees NI cuts should wait in my view. ”

    I heartily agree.
    That was my view entirely.

    But it’s too purist Alec-no votes in it-apart from a few business & industry ones.

    These people are trying to get elected-not neccessarily to employ 100% logic.

  35. @Anthony……………..I thought it was funny, but feel free to deprive the on-line public of a little gem. :-)

  36. @Anthony…………..Ta. :-)

  37. CONs win, budget after whitsun, redundancies start flowing at end of July.
    £6 bn is a lot to save in a fragile recovery largely from the last half of a year ( equivalent effect of £12 bn spread over a whole year)
    House sales have stalled already
    £6 bn equates to 400000 low paid workers if 80% of costs are wages.
    These may be back office or result of renegotiating supply contracts or canceling IT projects but it is still sacking people.
    Did GO factor in social security costs.
    Off the cuff thoughts folks.

  38. Mr Clarke – I looked at figures in the month which both leaders came to power. Browns election created a band wagon of good poll results – then they fell right away and but for a bit of a blip around autumn 2008 they have been poor ever since.

    The Tories will want to be higher than they are but I believe the expenses scandal has increased the numbers responding either – others, don’t know, or will not vote.

    Thats a lot of minds to change a lot of undecideds to convince. If there is a high level of ‘others’ then its asking a lot to get the tories over 39. But historically since Brown came to power its been rare (speaking from memory here) to see Labour much over 32.

    The efficiency savings announced By the tories are actually Darlings efficiency savings announced in the budget. They exist – labour say so themselves. But they choose to increase taxes rather than make them now. So Sue and Co can complain all they like but they should ask why Darling cannot explain his own efficiency savings.

    And whats wrong with making them now? Inefficiency is surely bad – especially if its being paid for by tax increases and taxes on jobs at that. If these NI increases go ahead employers will sack more people and take on fewer. Workers will have less money in their pockets as well. So not going ahead with it will add not subtract to the ‘stimulous’.

    The deficit is not baloney. It adds to the national debt and adds massively to the interest payments to service that debt. its going to add up to £60 billion a year soon. That is not baloney and its pie in the sky to call it that.

  39. ” grinning Brown on one side and gurning Cameron the others, caption ‘Whatever happens we’re f*cked’.

    ALEC -!!!

    Now I,ve spilt the rest of my tea! ;-)

  40. @Alec………………….That spoof poster made my day, it’s a classic ! :-)

  41. EOIN – Do you think you could stop now, you’re depressing me.

  42. @Tory bloggers,

    Take some time and think about it. Will the public prefer

    a) Vote Tory we will cut your tax, by improving efficiency savings and we will still reduce the deficit….

    b) Vote tory we will reverse the tax and jobs and put money back in your wallet where it belongs

    hmmm……… the more you tlak about deficit form here on it the more you damage the potnetial electorla benefit of your tax cut.

  43. MITZ and WOLF

    I agree that it’s not Anthony’s fault that this thread has become so incestuous – I also note that neither of you fall into the obcessive posting category. Amongst the dross I also agree that there are some thoughtful posts from some of the ‘regulars’. Like everyone here, I’m very interested in politics and the views of others who are also very interested in politics and I suppose what I am really moaning about is that these long threads drift into a sort of vapidness quite quickly which only those with lots of time on their hands engage in.

    Maybe, Anthony, if he has time could introduce one of his ‘open’ or ‘off-topic’ posts once the thread has reached 250-300 postings and is clearly suffering from drift.

  44. @DAVIDB……………..Are you being ironic ?

  45. @Sue,

    This will cheer you up..

    Plaid Camyru
    SNP
    SDLP

    will all oppose tax cuts.

    Liberals will most likely oppose tax cuts- though i do note they have a costed one of their own.

    There is now a self imposed ceiling on how high the tory vote will go.

    The best the can possible hope for is scraping a majority. I cannot see anoyone wanting to do a deal.
    I think more tactical voting between yellow and red is likely.

    Cameron will now have to fend of charges of opportunism form the BBC. They are not th email, express etc…. they will heap this pressur eon the Tories until then.

    Most undecided voters get their news form the main outlets…..

    Voters have rejected tax cuts three times now….

    there has that cheered you up?

  46. A poll on the budget that was not picked up:

    The Daily Express/ Opinium survey found little enthusiasm among adults quizzed after the statement.

    A total of 34 per cent thought the Budget was “designed mainly to help Labour win the election”.

    And 36 per cent thought it was purely about the Government keeping up the appearance of doing something about the economy while being completely ineffective.

  47. Oh, come on Éoin, please. Talk about influencing response by the tone of the question: “Do you think the budget was designed mainly to help Labour win the election?” “Do you think the budget was just the Government keeping up the appearance of doing something about the economy while being completely ineffective?”

    By the way, regarding your campaign policy choices a few posts ago, I would personally be far more persuaded by a) which is at least a logically put statement, than b) which is obvious rampant electioneering. But then I’m not a Tory strategist, so what do I know?

  48. DavidB,

    Agree with your idea about opening up a general (or perhaps a weekend) board from time to time – another thing that isn’t AW’s fault is the gap between significant new stories or polls being published.

  49. Why such confusion on the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times? The published figures are:

    Conservative 37% (down 1%)
    Labour 32% (up 1%)
    Lib Dem 19% (no change)

    ie the poll clearly shows the budget gave the govt a boost and there’s a swing from Tory to Labour.

    On UKPR’s own swing calculator, the YouGov poll would deliver 17 more Labour seats than Tory. Labour would be 33 seats short of an overall majority.

    However, Labour would win the election and the Tories would lose.

  50. IAN MCKAY

    How could Labour be 33 short and still win the Election..? Am I missing something…?

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