I’m expecting several polls tonight as the papers commission surveys to test the post-budget mood. First out of the traps is a new ICM poll in the News of the World, topline figures are CON 39%(+1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(nc) – so a slight widening of the Conservative lead. More to come later.

UPDATE: Two more polls: YouGov in the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). There is also a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday, Sky have only mentioned the Conservative and Labour figures, but they are 37%(+1), LAB 30%(-4). So far all three are showing some degree of increase in the Conservative lead – the budget does appear to be having a negative impact for the government.


655 Responses to “Post budget Sunday polling”

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  1. I understand that Sunday Times/YouGov will show 37 CON (+1), 32 LAB (-1) 19 LDEM (+1)

  2. So far 3 polls I believe. ICM, YouGov and BPIX. It’s a poll addicts dream.

    Couldn’t the raw data of them all be aggregated and made into a super poll by weighting the total. You might even get representative sub-samples.

  3. Yougov: Con 37%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 19%.

    BPIX: Con 37%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem ?

  4. @ Éoin,

    Looks like your YG prediction of CONS +5% is right too – if the above pre-announcement by HARRY is correct.

  5. Looks like stalemate on the budget then. Actually not bad for Labour because it was always going to be a problem, reminding the public how much debt we are running up and how big the cuts are going to have to be.

  6. Surbiton – that’s a dead good idea

  7. @Amber,

    I could not agree more about Clegg. LAbour need to look at their celtic fringe…..

    tory tax cuts will be a trun off ot the celtic voters Plaid, SNP, NI all favour state intervention and help for ordinary families

  8. I always suspected that the budget would be pretty unpopular with most voters, but not unpopular enough to make the Labour vote collapse.

    I await the Tory tax announcements with interest – could go well or badly for them (more likely to gain them a few further % IMO).

    In summary, I still think a hung parliament is most likely.

  9. Steve A
    The Cons own polls shown 10+ point lead “where they need it.”
    Thats their words, not mine.
    There is also going to be a strong attack on GB.
    Are the Polls in the stream correct or predictions?

  10. EOIN – Re Clegg? Do you mean my post on the last thread?

  11. I feel Darling made a small mistake. He could have used a slice of the £11bn “windfall” [ 178 – 167 ] to increase tax allowances sufficiently to cover the 1% employees NIC increase. At least for people earning upto say £30000.

    Despite legally he didn’t have to, most taxpayers will not understand that. And given the windfall any squeamish noise from the City would have been drowned by taxpayer approval. Nobody dislikes more money.

    The April pay packets will show a lower net income. Even though it will be a small amount, psychologically for lower paid workers that can mean a lot.

  12. Given the consensus that LAB benefit from FGF & the post budget Thatcher stuff was a real buzz-killer, LAB are lucky to have only dropped by a point or two (this assumes YG 2% on Wed was an outlier & 4% was the run-rate).

    Will there be anything to get folks feeling optimistic again this week?

  13. If the YG prediction is correct then the adjusted figures for ‘likelihood to vote’ (as discussed previously in other threads) would give:

    C = 37.6% (rounded = 38%)
    L = 30.9% (rounded = 31%)
    L/D = 19.3% (rounded = 19%)

    NB. This is with only a 5% reduction in the Labour vote (remember the Labour vote could be affected by between 5% – 15%) – but this will allow as near as possible direct comparrisons for the YG poll with other polls (AR of course is like YG and does not take into account ‘likelihood to vote).

    Unfortunately busy working this evening so I will post again as and when I can – got to work to pay the tax! :)

  14. For info… my stats come from Sky News and … err … Twitter (OK not always the most reliable…)

  15. Tory tax cuts may turn off the usual suspects, but we do need to wean people off the nanny state. Most sane people appreciate tax cuts, it does however depend on how you load the question.

  16. THIS CAN IN VIA POLITICAL BETTING

    YG daily poll: Sunday Times Mar 26 Mar 25
    CONSERVATIVES 37%
    LABOUR 32%
    LIB DEMS 19%
    LAB to CON swing from 2005 4%

    YG/BPIX Mail on Sunday Mar 26 Mar 5
    CONSERVATIVES 37%
    LABOUR 30%
    LIB DEMS
    LAB to CON swing from 2005 5%

    some changes but only a point hear and there

  17. Reminder

    +1 for one party and -1 for another can in reality be a shift of 0.1 to 1.8 for one and -0.1 to -1.8 for the other due to the effect of rounding to whole numbers.

    There’s no way to tell how much the real shift is. While I understand why the pollsters round in this way (to avoid a spurious accuracy) it does make it difficult to reckon the real extent of change.

  18. Budget dropped labour slightly.
    Advantage passes to GO to widen the gap.

  19. @Sue,

    Do forgive me,

    Yes t’was your post…..

    Yellow has gone bluer every year of its existence…
    one day it will be blue…

    There grass roots in the Mori marginals favoured Tories proportionately more…

    saying that, Clegg’s four points have more of leftish tone than much of his rhetoric

  20. @ SURBITON

    I feel Darling made a small mistake.
    —————————————————–
    I feel he made a big one by responding to the Thatcher question without reframing it to make his point clear – e.g. “What Thatcher did isn’t really relevant but yes, this is the tough budget. The kind we need to keep our promise about the deficit on track.”

    Still, it’s easy to be smart from the comfort of one’s livingroom – much harder when you are on the spot.

  21. Average of tonight’s 3 polls, (LD figure missing from BPIX so not included):

    C – 37.7%, Lab – 31.0%.

    Tory lead = 6.7%.

  22. EOIN – Hmmm my Con-dar is usually pretty accurate. Always felt when Paddy or Charlie criticised us there was a nod, nod, wink, wink in there somewhere. No nodding or winking from Clegg.

  23. Labour HQ will belicking their lips at these set of results

    after the Thatcher stuff to be on average 6.6% behind is god going

    i suspect when Populus and Mori rear their head the figure will be close to 7.3%

  24. These Tory Tax “cuts” -if proceeded with- are in fact :

    Two Tax Allowance increases ( IHT nil rate band & Marriage Allowance)

    One Temporary Tax Freeze ( Council Tax)

    One refusal to implement a Labour future Tax Increase( NIC)

    and

    One Reduction in a Tax rate ( Corporation Tax)

    A good evening of polling for Cons.:-

    Two out of three increase in Cons share.
    Three out of three decrease in Lab share.

    No “freefall” in Cons number.

    Average lead 7%

    But all MOE-await trends & the Campaign End Game.

    I suppose Gordy is actually going to call it is he?

  25. Looks like a slight con lead lift to me which would be a result for Labout given the effect following the last few major financial parliamentary occassions.

    Still think polls taken Mon/Tues/Wed next week and published Tues-Thurs will give a better indication of any ‘budget’ impact.

  26. Sue Marsh
    EOIN – Hmmm my Con-dar is usually pretty accurate. Always felt when Paddy or Charlie criticised us there was a nod, nod, wink, wink in there somewhere. No nodding or winking from Clegg.

    ——————————-

    Sue, remember Clegg’s background is Tory at University. Charlie came from SDP stock , so does Vince. Clegg also is from the North and hence his opponent is Labour whereas most Liberals face Tories as opponents.

  27. Colin – Now that was very good.
    Putting it that way, it all sounded very reasonable. Please tell me you don’t have direct access to GO?

    “I suppose Gordy is actually going to call it is he?” made me laugh out loud.

  28. Surbiton – Any chance of a coup where he gets replaced by Vincey before May 6th then?

  29. I would not be too upset if Charles Clarke loses Norwich South to the Greens. Overall it makes no difference as Greens will never be bedfellows with the Tories- “husky” Cameron or not.

  30. According to Sky News (Harry was right)

    YG for Sunday Times (compared to last Sunday)

    CON 37(+1), LAB 32 (-1) LDEM 19 (-)

    Which is a small movement towards Labour – opposite of ICM – which is a small movement towards the Tories – put down to the ”baby bounce”

  31. @Sue, Surbiton

    THe sad thing for poor CLegg is that he’ll be that guy wanting to make friends with Bluey but Bluey wont want him

    some reds might stomach a lib/lab,

    I doubt many blues will..

    does this mean that blue leaning yellows will swtich?

    there are i think about 100 seats where blue and yellow are the top two…

    will reds switch to yellow in these areas if they dont trust clegg?

    the TV debates will be the only thing a long of voters will see of Clegg, if he spin a good enough orange and green yearn (ie red/yellow=orange + blue/yellow = green) then enough floaters might buy it..

    I can only see a win win in terms of votes/ exposure

    but his hands are becomming tied by things outside hsi control

    1.Blue will possilby win more seats
    2.Red is easier to do a deal with
    3.Voters in England especially might not stomach and orange coalition

    sorry for my zippy george and bungle thingy….

  32. @Colin thanks for this,

    your figures still are

    5-7£ bill = NI
    3bil£ corp
    600-1.5 council (though i accpet your prob more accurate here)

    what about marriage?

    Has your crystal ball filled you on that?

    either way we are looking at a double figure 10Billion + in the first year…

  33. AL J are you sure?

    Last Sundays You Gov C 38 L 31 LD 19.

    Since last Sunday C -1 L +1 LD nc

  34. @ SUE

    “Please tell me you don’t have direct access to GO ”

    Sadly-not Sue.

    Glad you thought I was being reasonable ;-)

    Not implementing a future tax increase proposal by another party cannot be described as a Tax Cut!

    It’s just a different way of doing a budget.

    As for
    ““I suppose Gordy is actually going to call it is he?” made me laugh out loud.”

    Do you have an inside track SUE?
    Any surprises coming , or will it be May still?

  35. Eoin Clarke
    @Sue, Surbiton

    THe sad thing for poor CLegg is that he’ll be that guy wanting to make friends with Bluey but Bluey wont want him

    some reds might stomach a lib/lab,

    I doubt many blues will..

    does this mean that blue leaning yellows will swtich?

    there are i think about 100 seats where blue and yellow are the top two…

    will reds switch to yellow in these areas if they dont trust clegg?

    —————————–

    As my name suggests I live here. I have no choice but support the Yellow. I almost enjoyed supporting Charlie. I might even have joined the Libs if he and that warmonger had stayed.

  36. Oh I do apologise

    I copied the first post to save having to type out the whole thing – and it was wrong -I’ll have to be more careful ;-)

    YG for Sunday Times (compared to last Sunday)

    CON 37(-1), LAB 32 (+1) LDEM 19 (-)

    What am I ? Don’t answer lol ;-)

  37. If these results reported are right and allowing for the YG adjustment, so they can be more readily compared, then the average of tonights polls would be Conservative leads of:

    YG = 7%
    IBIX = 7%
    ICM = 8%

    Average Conservative lead of 7+%.

  38. @Éoin……….I have to disagree with your Labour HQ comment.My view is that they will just be starting to realise that the false dawn created by You-Gov is turning into the cold light of day. :-)

  39. @Ken,

    Does cold light of day invovle clear blue sky? :) :) :)

    Yougov were at 7% a week ago- today the are at 5%

  40. Colin – No inside track, but I’m sure it’ll be May 6th. We don’t have the money to go for any other date and we’ve already sent everything in to press with that assumed.

    (“we” is only the seats I know of, not HQ, obviously)

  41. @ EOIN

    It’s:-
    Council Tax £1.5bn-once only-two year freeze
    Corpn Tax-Self Financed by reducing specific allowances/reliefs.
    IHT-self financed-non doms.
    Marriage-who knows-my guess the IDS (token ) optionn- £0.6Bn pa
    NIC-£5BN pa ( per Inland Revenue Docs) -but only via non implementation of Lab proposal from 5/4/2011.

    So in first Parliament –
    £1.5 + ( 5 X £0.6) + ( 4X £5) =£24.5 BN

    =0.7% of Total Tax Revenue over a Parliament.

  42. @Eoin

    Blue sky following May 6th!

    YouGov were at 2% (unadjusted) a few days ago, remember?

  43. SUE
    “Colin – No inside track, but I’m sure it’ll be May 6th. We don’t have the money to go for any other date and we’ve already sent everything in to press with that assumed.”

    Thanks
    Much appreciated.

  44. Bill Roy – You’re own personal polling makes me even more determined to ensure the “Likelihood to Vote” is 100%

  45. @BillRoy,

    Your welcome ot go back at read my posts on the YG 2%

    I called in an outlier upon sight…..

    I hold the lead to be 7%

    HUNG PARL :) now which party is going to back Tory tax cuts and let them form a government?

  46. @sue Marsh,

    I actually applaud you and hope for our country that you can achieve 100% turn-out of voters whatever they decide to vote – I do not think fining people who do not vote like Austalia does is right but I wish that more people would vote.

  47. Maurice – my advice for any private polling by political parties is the same: unless they produce the actual numbers and actual tables, don’t believe a word of it.

  48. An 8 pointer here I see. Didn’t think the budget would help Labour excell (although I do still class AD’s honesty and integrity as streaks above any of his “colleagues”), nor did I anticipate the Tories gaining much. My prediction last week seems to have been reasonably accurate, the Conservatives anywhere between a 4 and 9 point lead through the various polls with between 36 and 39. Very slight lift if anything for the Conservatives.

    BPIX/ Mail on Sunday as far as I’m aware stands this week at C37/L30/LD19.

  49. @Éoin…………..Clear blue water time, no need for the desperates. :-)

  50. @Colin,

    I appreciate the sincerity with which you present your figures.

    You will now that it is impossible to be certain.

    NAt insurance is proportionate to wage and size of workforce… we do not know the exact size of workforce, better still we do not know what wil happen wages…..

    suffice ot say the three figures I have heard so far are £%bill £7bill and £10bill

    as an historian I feel compelled to choose the middle figure,

    but I accept there is every chance you amy be right

    I also give you credit as being the only Tory willing to fess up to the cutz, you will note that your comrades are conspicuous on this matter….

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