I’m expecting several polls tonight as the papers commission surveys to test the post-budget mood. First out of the traps is a new ICM poll in the News of the World, topline figures are CON 39%(+1), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 19%(nc) – so a slight widening of the Conservative lead. More to come later.

UPDATE: Two more polls: YouGov in the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 37%(nc), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). There is also a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday, Sky have only mentioned the Conservative and Labour figures, but they are 37%(+1), LAB 30%(-4). So far all three are showing some degree of increase in the Conservative lead – the budget does appear to be having a negative impact for the government.


655 Responses to “Post budget Sunday polling”

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  1. Sue:

    “I’ve been quite a Tory today as Colin will testify. ”

    OY-don’t drag me into it-and don’t put words into my mouth.;-)

    You said something about posters today Sue, which I respected you for. Some of your more mealy mouthed compatriots are notable by their silence on the point.

    No doubt they will not comment on posters in the future.

  2. How about what I said about the Tories playing a blinder re tonight’s budget debate?

    Oh I’ll b****r off, that’ll be easier

  3. I listened to Ken Clarke on Jeremy Vine today trying to encapsulate Tory policy on tax/spend/borrowing. Essentially the Tories are still saying that there will have to be net tax rises to deal with the deficit. They are simply saying that increasing NI contributions (the “tax on jobs”) is the wrong way to increase taxes. He was also saying that the Tories will concentrate more on spending cuts and less on tax rises than Labour. He made no mention of Labour’s preferred option (continuing with increased borrowing).

    Vine of course tried to pin him down with the usual questions (what exactly will you cut and by how much) that no politician ever wants to answer.

    Personally I think VAT is going up to 20% if the Tories get in. No doubt. Plus a few tax increases on less obvious things around the edging. Put that alongside a public sector pay freeze, a few cancelled projects (ID cards being the most obvious) and a general squeeze on departmental budgets and I think that’s about the size of it.

    In reality I don’t think the measures will vary much whoever gets into power.

  4. “Any chance I could come of the naughtey step?”

    Not unless your spelling improves.

  5. @Colin
    Thanks – I have read the IFS document. The estimated cost is predicated only on the NICs “lost”.

    Breaking the link between the higher rate threshold (which is the same point as the basic rate limit) and the NICs UEL would require repealing the provision in the National Insurance Act 2008.

    This particular provision links tax and NICs liability, so the two move in tandem. Replealing it leaves open the prospect of an amendment to the higher rate threshold at some date.

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