Tonights’s Yougov tracker has topline figures of CON 37%(+1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 18%(+1), so the Tory lead goes back to four points. As I said yesterday, we’ll never know for sure whether yesterday’s two point lead was just an outlier, or whether it was a real narrowing reversed by the budget.

This poll was conducted between yesterday afternoon and this afternoon – so it is entirely after the Budget was delivered, but not necessarily after people had heard or read about it. Certainly many respondents would have answered the survey before having read the newspaper coverage of the budget this morning. While this first test of public opinion after the budget suggests it is not a game changer, there may well be more to come in the weekend polls.

My view is that the budget was more of a risk than an opportunity for Labour – Darling had no money for giveaways and the last two budgets had a strongly negative impact on Labour’s poll ratings. If Labour emerge unscathed, it’s probably good news for them… if they emerge unscathed – this is, after all, just one early poll and I expect we’ll have a lot more to digest over the weekend.


409 Responses to “YouGov Daily poll – 37/33/18”

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  1. AMBER
    Reorted as “this week” in the Mail.

  2. @ ALL

    Anthony has put up a new thread about post budget reaction polls – so I guess we will all wander over there to view some more goat entrails & chat about them :-)

  3. @AMBER STAR
    Looks like Anthony wants to close the thread. This is what happens when there are no polls to discuss!

  4. Just looked at the AR poll figures for the Budget. Overall, I agree it is better for Con than Lab.
    This is just an observation – AR are saying in the accompanying blurb that “Only 22 per cent of respondents are “very confident” or “moderately confident” that the budget will promote economic recovery in the UK, while 71
    per cent are “not too confident” or “not confident at all” that this will be the case.” (The latter split is 39/32.) The question was “How confident are you that the budget will promote economic recovery in the UK?”
    Perhaps it’s me, but isn’t it possible to interpret the answers to this question as being “61% of respondents are confident that the budget will promote economic recovery in the UK, while just 32% are ‘not confident at all'”?
    Surely, if you answer the question by saying “not too confident” you’re confident?!

  5. COLIN:
    “..by a margin of 62 to 29 per cent Unite members think the law should be changed..”

    “..the poll was commissioned by the Conservatives ”

    Interesting to see the Conservatives focusing on Unite.

  6. ASH-SUE

    Is the Populus Poll flawed, or invalid in some way?

    I really would like to know-hence my question to Anthony.

    I didn’t realise it was commissioned by Cons-does that invalidate it?

  7. Frankly I would suggest all those Unite Members who dont want to support Labour to leave the union, as labour was created by the union movement. Its like goingto church and not liking god.

  8. @ EPOCHERY

    “Frankly I would suggest all those Unite Members who dont want to support Labour to leave the union,”

    What would be the downside for them if they did this?

  9. Epochery – Hear! Hear! LMAO
    Wonder if the question was something like “don’t you agree that the unions should break away from the evil corruption of Labour” lol

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