YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%(-1), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1). Back to a very tight 2 point lead, and signs that the Lib Dem boost we saw last week is subsiding. The poll was conducted almost entirely before the budget, and wholly before the main media reaction to it tonight and tomorrow morning – so realistically it is already out of date.

I normally offer a caveat about waiting for other polls before concluding anything from a widening or narrowing of the lead. In this case we will never know. If tomorrow’s poll shows a bigger Tory lead we’ll never know if this was a blip, or was a genuine narrowing stamped out by the budget. If tomorrow’s poll confirms this one we’ll never know if this one was the beginning of a trend, or it’s really a budget boost for the government and this one was just a co-incidence.

In terms of when we can expect to see a reaction to the budget, the next YouGov/Sun poll (the one that will be published in 24 hours time) went into the field late this afternoon, so will be entirely post budget and we may see an impact then. On the other hand, we may see a different result once people have watched the media reaction on the TV tonight, or in the newspapers tomorrow – if that’s the case we will need too wait for the polls in the Sunday papers for the full story. Time will tell.


239 Responses to “YouGov Daily poll – 36/34/17”

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  1. wow that is stunning.
    just when I thought Labour had peaked

    the momentum behind them now seems unstoppable

  2. Inexplicable. Labour have the worst time possible, culminating in three ex ministers caught on camera with their trousers down, and ICM, Opinium and You Gov all contract the lead sharply in Labour’s favour.
    What the ****?

  3. This election campaign is going to be very interesting.

    I can’t underatand how a 20 point Tory lead has completely evaporated in the last 6 months. It is not as if either party has done anything spectacularly good or bad in the intervening period.

  4. So these figures suggest Labour has only lost support of about 1 in 18 or so of it’s supporters since 2005

    I don’t think so

  5. I wouldn’t count your chickens JUST yet. I can recall other elections wjhen labour peaked too early.

  6. It’s like the Hare and the Tortoise ;-)
    Will steady-as-she-goes Darling play better than Cameron’s sound and fury and we see levels you devils by the weekend?!

  7. So many polls now disagree on the level of labour support…. i think the range is about 8% points..

    The polls on the other hand are fairly sure of Tory support…. it is up about 3% from their 2005 electoral performance…

    Is this enough to improve on their 199 seats gained in 2005….

    Tory chances of an overall majority are fading…. what, if anything, can turn it around?

    The Liberals will be dismayed to have fallen back to 17%. Clegg’s level of exposure at budget response was paltry….

  8. these opinion polls are way out, some say Conservatives 8 ahead others say only 2, total waste of time, exit polls are the only real opinion polls that you should believe.

  9. Hmm interesting. I wonder how long it will be before the right wingers in the Tories start to panic and make noises about how “Dave” is too much of a woolly liberal and they are losing momentum by not being Conservative enough.

    If they do I’d suspect their numbers will head even further south. We live in interesting times.

  10. Time will tell, sooner or later, time will tell

  11. go brawn.

  12. Budget seemed to go down well with markets, as expected before an election. Darlings day. If public arn’t exited by it the tomorrow 35/35. wow indeed

  13. what about the London poll in direct contradiction of this poll?

    Unlike 1997 Labour the Opposition just has not generated the excitement of the 5 Pledges

  14. Well, good news for Labour, bad news for Conservative and LibDem. Yet another low number for the Conservatives makes their average for the last 10 polls = 36.2% whereas Labour almost have a high score. A 31 average over 10 polls is still 5 points behind but only 5 points. It looks like it is all to play for in Hung Parliament land. The Lib Dems have had a couple of polls below their recent 20 average which starts to cast doubt on hopes of a surge.

    I can hardly wait for the main event of the reaction of the polls over the coming days for a response to the budget.

  15. I do wonder if the Tory partisan comments wil be moderated?

  16. Even with this result Labour will not get a majority though and that’s based on UNS.

  17. The question about the London poll is a fair one. I think that MOE is the main reason for it, personally.

  18. It’s incredible that Labour are going from strength to strenght in the polls – well, YouGov at least. Relentlessly bad news for Labour recently – and the polls are going the opposite to what people might expect. The Tories have a net loss of 18 points in six months?

    Defies logic – and that’s why I am treating these daily trackers with huge caution. I suggest hysterical Labour voters calm down a little.

  19. It is staggering how far the Conservative position has slipped back to 36 or 35%, to the point where almost all polls now saying Labour to win as largest party. The media / opposition attacks on the Government seemingly having no effect

  20. Anthony – Are you culling or am I going mad?

  21. Well, this is fun. But we’ve seen a 2% delta in the famous Sunday Times YG – it turned out to be an outlier.

    However – the YG 4,5,6% was followed in due course by other pollsters showing a similar gap.

    If the budget helps this 2% stick through the coming week – & other pollsters move to sub-5% too – then this is a big ****ing deal to quote Joe Biden ;-)

  22. AW – thanks for the link on the previous thread ;-o
    It brilliantly captured GB’s somewhat reptilian nature!
    What paper was that in?

  23. @Steve, Barnaby

    It is possible that an 8% lead and 2% is th esame thing, in that they are on the edge of each others moe

    someone said 5% (colin i think) , that seems a reasonable marker..

    regarding the 8% london, well Sean Fear was explaining last night London had a tendancy to produce a more exaggerated swing. So it also it a possilbe accurate reflection..

    Non eof these polls bar Angus Reid actually disagree with one another…

    roughly 5% Labour-prior budget.

    That may change….. the Tories needless to say need it to

  24. Culling required

  25. Tejan- thought you were an impartial observer.

    The debates and campaigns are yet to commence, and a hung parliment would be an immensly messy affair for the country in its entirity. Our hung parliment in Scotland works reasonably well as a result of our leader’s persona, however, I cannot for the life of me see DC or GB ride a minority government out.

    More so, following on from the thread on the last topic (Sue Marsh, George Gardner etc), I also cant really see anybody from another party working effectively with Brown.

  26. EOIN – last week I was having a decidedly “reasonable2 conversation agreeing it was a 7 point lead.

  27. LD’s were mentioned for 3.2 seconds on BBC News at Ten tonight. Is that a record for under-representation? And was it because Nick Clegg got his response all wrong? Or just a bit of bias by the beeb?

  28. Neil,

    I think that is the main point from the latest batch of polls – it is the Tory percentage slipping back from 37/38% to 35/36%.

    it is becoming a question of who will be the main party in a hung parliament – at the moment I am tempted to put money on Labour being that largest party

  29. @Sue,

    It is more intellectually stimulating to have a constructive debate. Wouldnt you agree?

  30. WMA 36:32:18 with a WMA CLead of 5 due to rounding.

    It seems very likely that this is a rogue. It makes no sense that in a dreadful week for Labour the CLead has shrunk so much. The last time YouGov showed a CLead of 2 it turned out from the Retrospectives that the CLead was 5.2.

    Statistically there is no 1-month or 2-week trend, but the trend over the last 44 days (time to the election) has an R2 of 0.68 which would normally be fairly convincing.

    FWIW spread betting is still 59:34:6.7 for CMaj:hung:LMaj.

  31. Woodsman – Morten Morland in the Times, who I think is the best political cartoonist out there at the moment.

  32. Yet the Harris poll had labour on 28.

    So why should we believe labour on 34. A YG of London puts the Tories on 40.

    Why should we believe one or the other.

    Expenses and sleaze have just pissed off the electorate. The ‘others’ element is going to be crucial.

    Anyone trying to make gospel of any of these polls is plain daft.

  33. Re Culling – I ask because someone listed the failures as they saw them, but in fact there was a sensible point there.
    On a non-partisan analysis, Labour have suffered from a hugely unpopular war that keeps on giving and the worst recession in a generation. All the while, the polls are marching in their favour.

    The poster asked if this had ever happened before, and I have to say I’d be interested to know the answer. Just how is this possible?

  34. @trevorsden,

    How do you see the Tory %- viewing a range of polls?

  35. In five days, with virtually zero bad publicity for the Tories and sheds full of grief for labour, the lead has dropped from 7 points to 2 points, yeah, right.

  36. Thanks Anthony ( I hadn’t seen it, honest!) I’ll look out for him more often now.

  37. Mr Clarke – if all these polls are ‘the same’, then we should give up watching them, is pointless ‘reporting’ on them.

    One poll has labour on 28 and another on 34? and these polls are the same?

    Time to start questioning the principle I think.

  38. Try not to get too excited – we’ve had a 2% lead before and it turned out to be an outlier, the London poll didn’t look so good for brown and when all is said and done Labour are still behind in every single poll. I’m not sure if the freezing of personal allowances might not cause some bad press in a few days time – not welcome for low earners in particular.
    Having said all that, Labour strategists must think it’s Christmas – even in their wildest dreams I don’t think they would have planned for the lead shrinking to sub 5% six months ago. There really are cracks in the Tory facade and there is a chance – a very slim chance – for Brown on May 6th.
    Two of the early posts caught my attention. Andrew Myers asked why the 20% leads had evaporated, and Woodsman contrasted Darling’s steady approach with Cameron’s ‘sound and fury’. Perhaps the latter provides the answer to the former?

  39. What does make a voter blink?
    Perhaps taking the whip away from the three did it, DC didn’t do anything with the prospective Lord
    Or Brown removing Hoon from the NATO committee
    Or Sam Cam Wam failed.
    Public are obviously fickle
    I suspect the move to GB is continuing despite the media best efforts; the graphs still show upward trend

  40. Do the polls show the likely size of the vote? Are we seeing former Conservative voters deciding not to vote in much bigger numbers than before? Is there a hidden secret vote for minor parties, EG UKIP, BNP etc.?

  41. It’s as if someone is waving a carrot under Brown’s nose in the direction of The Mall.

    I’ll get my coat……….

  42. At the last GE, 62% of the British electorate voted for ‘Progressive’ – as opposed to ‘Conservative’ – parties.

    What we are seeing is the failure of the Conservative party to shore up it’s centrist support base.

    Playing to the right wing of it’s support, means that it will NEVER comfortably or consistently regain power again.

    Despite what the very vocal hard right like to claim. The majority of the British electorate are at the centre. Not out on either wing.

    I would dearly love to see the Conservative party split from the extremists in it’s party and return to the Centre-right position occupied by so many of the mainstream parties of Europe. Were it do so, it would once again become the natural party of government. But whilst it continually flirts with UKIP’ites and various other radical right wingers, it will fail.

    Had Labour not done so badly in recent years, we would be on the edge of another Labour landslide!

  43. I’m pretty sure i’ve said this before, but i’ll say it again.

    The incumbant government tends to get a bounce in the polls when the election is announced, so it could be a wise move if Brown went to the Palace tomorrow. It could balance out whatever support they have lost from the budget. Also, Major called the 1992 Election shortly after the budget.

  44. @Trevorsden, you can call me (owen Eoin if it helps)

    I am with you on the labour mish mash

    what about they tories the % for them are more consistent?

  45. @Dave in F

    Cameron would argue he has made the party more progressive… not all aspects of lib/lab are progressive eg (big bro state) so technically 62 % is unprovable

    I applaued the overall sentiment of the post however….

  46. I suspect people have been put off by Cam’s ideological anger vs state of psb. Osbourne can’t be helping with his uncompromising scare tactics. Instead GB/ADs pragmatic approach to handling of recession and post election plans are more comfortable to most people. Also the more City economists back Tory plans, the more people associate the bankers with Tories. Who got us into the economic mess? Bankers. So if people see Bankers=Tories, then a mental association starts and acceptance of Tory plans becomes unpalatable. Why vote for a party that favours those who got us into the mess in the first place. All IMHO of course.

  47. This is not the first week I’ve sat here cogitating the implications of a poll whilst watching Shameless.
    The irony has not gone un-noticed.

  48. Mr Clarke – if all these polls are ‘the same’, then we should give up watching them, its pointless ‘reporting’ on them.

    One poll has labour on 28 and another on 34? and these polls are the same?

    Time to start questioning the principle I think.

  49. Percy – it sure as hell wasn’t Hoon being removed from NATO, since I think that news broke after the poll finished (and even if not, it’s hardly headline news is it?). Brown taking swift action and kicking Byers et al out of the PLP could have made him look strong.

    More likely though is your final suggest – that it’s a general upwards trend from the recovering economy, and all these little news stories have bugger all effect.

    Plus – of course, normal random sample error, in the same way as we get polls like YouGov’s 7 point Tory lead at the weekend, we should equally expect some outliers in the other direction. I expect both are just outliers around YouGov’s average lead at the moment of about 4 points.

    As I said in the orginal piece though, we’ll never really know as in the next couple of days we will see whatever impact the budget has (assuming it has some effect that is. It’s perfectly possible that it will do nowt).

  50. Also ,,, Clegg’s hints at associations with Tories in hing parliament, has put centre left LDM voters off them because the prospect of Cameron leading them is unpalatable

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