YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%(-1), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1). Back to a very tight 2 point lead, and signs that the Lib Dem boost we saw last week is subsiding. The poll was conducted almost entirely before the budget, and wholly before the main media reaction to it tonight and tomorrow morning – so realistically it is already out of date.

I normally offer a caveat about waiting for other polls before concluding anything from a widening or narrowing of the lead. In this case we will never know. If tomorrow’s poll shows a bigger Tory lead we’ll never know if this was a blip, or was a genuine narrowing stamped out by the budget. If tomorrow’s poll confirms this one we’ll never know if this one was the beginning of a trend, or it’s really a budget boost for the government and this one was just a co-incidence.

In terms of when we can expect to see a reaction to the budget, the next YouGov/Sun poll (the one that will be published in 24 hours time) went into the field late this afternoon, so will be entirely post budget and we may see an impact then. On the other hand, we may see a different result once people have watched the media reaction on the TV tonight, or in the newspapers tomorrow – if that’s the case we will need too wait for the polls in the Sunday papers for the full story. Time will tell.


239 Responses to “YouGov Daily poll – 36/34/17”

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  1. OLIN
    I would draw the distinction rather differently. I honestly don’t think anyone cares whether Cameron and the Opposition front bench come from a privileged background. The problem Cameron may have is that his approach to economic policy (and also to cuts) is perceived to benefit that same social strata, at the expense of the poor/lower middle class. In that context is it any wonder some people will say “well, what would you expect from a member of the aristocracy”?
    What cameron has to do is appeal to poorer and lower mid inc voters. Thatcher did this through patrotism/nationalism and the right to buy. Where is Cameron’s equivalent?
    Now you could also say Labour are also appealing to their core constituency, with a largely tax the (very) rich budget. But in these times, where a great deal of ire is directed at very wealthy financial institutions, and the City, for the banking collapse, Brown is on further ground.
    Finally on the point I think you were making on poverty of ambition in poorer areas holding back the talented, I completely agree. But raising the top rate to 50% on income above 150,000GBP is hardly a deterrent to ambition.

  2. Jock,

    If you are right about the beginning of Cameron’s decline in popularity (and I have no reason to doubt it) I suspect that it would be less to do with the subject matter and more to do with the fact that we had yet another politician who promised something and failed to deliver. Most of Cameron’s anti-Labour rhetoric boiled down to accusations of that failing, and here he was doing it himself.

  3. Ipsos Mori would look like giving the Conservatives No 10.

    Major caveats being:

    1) Vast regional variation in the marginals
    2) How many of the marginals were polled

  4. Bill Roy – yep, marginals you really do need to know which seats it was before you can draw proper conclusions. I shall toddle off and investigate.

  5. @Eoin
    ‘I know it’s not nice to think that people who would normally support the party you love might be bigotted neanderthals, but they are a tiny minority.’

    Wrong Eoin, they are not as you colourfully describe but people like you and me, only they have not had the benefit of advanced education, or more importantly a gentle upbringing in leafy suburbs with no money worries. Their areas are lived in by people of another race or culture who seem, from their own experience, to be responsible for a lot of the crime and other problems whether true or not makes no difference).,

    It is impossible for a politician to do anything about this. One party will talk about ‘preventing excess further immigration’ forgetting that that ‘solution’ is not going to solve the ‘neanderthals” problem. Only sending the ‘unwanted’ away would achieve that and most are now third generation born in this country so it’s not going to happen.

    So sensibly, parties do not go after that vote – it’s the same with EU, hanging, fox-hunting, it is counter-productive in an electoral situation.

    I belong to the CPRE. At one meeting a tweedy woman stood up and said ‘it’s high time the CPRE came off the fence about hunting, otherwise half the membership will resign’. A friend next to me muttered ‘yes, but which half?’.

  6. Al J, depending on the marginals sampled, that could be good news for either party.

    One oddity about the Yougov poll is that the underlying questions showed quite sharp moves to the Conservatives, even as the voting intention went in the other direction.

  7. AW – Thank you. :)

  8. Bill Roy,

    Have there been any polls published to date, on marginals or overall voting intention, that haven’t lead you to conclude that Cameron has all but got his hands on the keys to No. 10?

  9. We can’t make an informed judgement about the Ipsos MORI poll until we know what constitutes a marginal in this instance. If it is the same seats as the previous poll of “marginals”, then it does represent a swing of nearly 2% to Labour since that poll; but until we have further details we simply don’t know.

  10. @Howard,

    Timeout..

    I did use the comments you attributed to me…..

    perhaps you meant someone else….

    Libs are many things but none of what seems to have been said…

  11. @howard,

    if i humbly may, can you check MITZ’s comments….

  12. IIRC, the figures were 39:37 to the Conservatives, in the previous survey, but, as you say, we don’t know which seats were surveyed, and probably a mistake to compare MORI’s findings directly with Yougov’s.

  13. Howard,

    It was me, not Eoin, who made that comment. You can pretty up “people like you and me, [who] have not had the benefit of advanced education” as much as you like, but someone who is considering voting for the BNP is ipso facto bigotted, and ignorance is not an excuse.

  14. MITZ – “Have there been any polls published to date, on marginals or overall voting intention, that haven’t lead you to conclude that Cameron has all but got his hands on the keys to No. 10?”

    I have seen no non-partisan public polls (by this I mean I discount those supplied by ANY political party or allied group) that would show that the Conservatives will not win the vast majority of the top 70 marginals, so my answer has to be that unless there is a seed-change moment in Labours favour that alters the marginals then Cameron will be the next PM. (Please note this is not a partisan statement.)

    It will be interesting to see what AW comes back with when he has looked at the Ipsos Mori poll. (Hell AW works damn long hours!)

  15. “* Technical Details

    – Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,007 adults aged 18+ across 56 marginal constituencies in Great Britain.

    – These are Labour-held constituencies which the Conservatives need a swing of between 5 percent and 9 percent to win.

    – Interviews were conducted by telephone 19-22 March 2010, before Wednesday’s budget.”

    So those seats where Lab have a 10-18% lead over Tories (presumably regardless of whether Tories are in 2nd or 3rd place?)

  16. Sky news reporting IPSOS poll of marginals conducted before budget. Showing.

    Labour 41%
    Tories 37%

    Any more info on this.

  17. OldNat – If this is correct then it reaffirms the fact that Cameron (for the dates of the poll) will enter No. 10.

    With the press playing along party lines this morning the chances are that the budget may cause a ‘blip’ either way but that will likely disappear.

    There just seems to be so many similarities between this election and the last US Presidential election it is becoming uncanny! Even the polls are acting in the same way.

  18. @oldnat,

    many thanks once again,

    The net result of this is that whilst the Tories are still likelyto make good gaisn in the constituencies requirng smaller swings… the chances of an outright majority are very slim…

    there is every chance they could pcik up 70-80 seats in the constituencies which require less swing

    bottom line HUNG PARL.

  19. That suggests a swing of about 5.5% I think.

  20. seen you post oldnat.

  21. The Ipsos marginals poll is being reported on Reuters as showing a 5% swing ‘in the key marginals the Conservatives needs to win to form a majority’. A spokesman for Ipsos was quoted as saying it puts us firmly in hung parliament territory. I seem to recall Ipsos has a 38/38 split in their last marginals polls, and if this is the same tranche of seats it shows an alarming trend against the Tories.

  22. AW – just wondering if there is any reason I’m going into automatic moderation? It makes keeping up with the thread quite hard.

  23. Billroy

    Difficult to tell who will win I think.

    You won’t know until 7th May.

    My prediction is Labour minority government, but only just having more seats than the Tories

  24. I seem to have got my references mixed up, apols if so. Not to ‘labour’ the point the Labour party is the only one who could swing the BNP working class vote so stressing to them that they will be less poor by doing so might work. Not the biker types though -they’ve got plenty of money by definition. Oh dear — another generalisation – please do not reply if you are a Harley Davidson enthusiast.
    Not a productive area it seems to me for Labour. I had a bloke who said to me ‘Yeah, I’ll vote Lib Dem -you do want to get rid of the n*g n*gs don’t you?.’

  25. I’ve taken on board the comments since I started my calculations. I know Anthony is investigating for more information regarding which marginal’s, but since I did the work here it is for what it’s worth.

    This Ipsos Mori for the marginal’s is very interesting.

    According to Peter Riddle the 2005 vote in the marginals was
    Lab 45.3
    Con 31.4

    Moris %’s are
    Lab 41
    Con 37

    I make this a swing of 4.95% in the marginals.
    A swing of 4.95% would mean the Tories taking 87 seats from others which are

    66 Labour
    18 Lib Dem (very dubious ;-) )
    2 SNP 1 other

    ;-)

  26. Do the polls factor in the ‘Shy Tory’ phenomonon?
    Remember ’87.
    Appolgies if this issue has already been exhausted.

  27. Scottish seats in the marginals poll presumably

    Edinburgh South West
    Renfrewshire East
    Stirling

    and maybe Edinburgh North and Leith, where Tories are 3rd.

    Al J

    How does a swing from Lab to Con predict results in SNP/Con marginals? ;-)

  28. Alec – because you’ve ignored several polite snipping of posts where you’ve slid into “Here’s several paragraphs about why I personally don’t like Cameron/Osborne”. If the point has been made, I’ll take you back off moderation!

    The 38/38 marginals poll was Populus, not MORI. They were significantly different groups of marginals. Populus surveyed marginals that needed swings of between roughly 3% and 8% (Conservative targets 50 to 150), MORI surveyed marginals that needed swings between 5% and 9% (Conservative targets 88 to 173 roughly).

    The only bit you can compare is the swing – so Populus found 6.5%, MORI have found 5%. I expect some of that is a narrowing of the polls because we’ve seen the polls narrow nationally, but we can’t conclude that it all is – it could be that the Conservatives are doing better in marginals further down the list (or, indeed, it could be just down to the methodological differences between the two pollsters).

  29. Al j. Does this mean that the public share of vote will be reflected more accurately in the G.E.

    Also:
    Are the Tories already spending on advertising in the marginals?

  30. Newbie Nick. It’s reckoned the phenomenon is now Shy Labour Nick. Anthony has a piece on it – see his side pieces.

  31. AW – please accept my apologies. I tend not to go back to check my previous comments so I had no idea I had been snipped. Will behave in future and try to avoid the red mist attacks.

    Thanks for the clarification on the marginals polls.

  32. Oldnat

    I went up the middle column to ”target seats”.

    It gives the Tory target seats from No 1 to No 200.

    Within those are the SNP -I’m assuming because they are not coloured red and I haven’t investigated any further -sorry if that’s cheating ;-)

    But they are Perth & N Perthshire – & Angus

  33. Al J

    I knew which seats they would be!

    Simply pointing out the folly of applying such a listing to Scottish politics.

    For example, MORI wouldn’t have included Dumfries and Galloway as a marginal in that range, because with only a 2.9% swing required it would be taken as a “given”. No one here would make such an assumption.

  34. Newbie Nick

    I would say yes to your question -but Better ask Anthony as he’s got the expertise.

  35. EOIN
    “One word sums up your point

    Individual.”

    I was answering SUE’s question.
    I was adressing the effects of class prejudice as I see them.

    I said nothing of my views on society.

    I said nothing of my views on the need for the State to support those who cannot support themselves ( I know something about this EOIN from my own daughter’s circumstances)

    So you have not heard my views on these matters.

    So please do not lecture me about” the poorer classes tend to have all sorts of notions about community and society…”-I know-I was borne into one & I will never lose those “notions”

    Your trouble EOIN is that you see things in black or white ( or maybe Green?). So many who promulgate class prejudice as a means of political “group think” do.

    The world is constructed in shades of grey EOIN-and many many other colours.

  36. Oldnat

    Fair do’s. I was just trying to illustrate what the swing would mean. I appreciate you know a lot more about Scottish Politics than I do ;-) . Thanks anyway.

    What Anthony said about the Mori poll of marginal Tory targets seats from No 88+ is interesting.

    Since the swing required would be 5%+ for those seats -that means the Tories wouldn’t win any of them -as I calculated they would likely win up to No 87 -but as you rightly say Oldnat , that wouldn’t include the 2 SNP seats, nor do I think it would include all the 18 LibDems -so they would win only about 66 from Labour (if the swing was the same – up to 4.95%)

  37. @Colin,

    I’ll leave you to it. Lets put it down to lost in translation. I chose the word “individaul” because you said it in your post….

    Green? you could not be further fromt he truth…… would never…. Benedict Anderson wrote a fantasitc book in 1983, it is entitled imagined communities…

    the concept of a nation state is a myth… the concept of one race is a myth…. how anyone identifies themselves along grounds of race is ludricous in my humble opinion…

    England is the perfect example of of the melting pot that is society not a country but people

  38. Mitz (12.22pm) – very good point, which would explain the facts.

    Cameron’s decline dates to when he was perceived as making a U-turn on the euro-referendum. But support has NOT migrated to anti-euro parties (such as UKIP).

    Hence people are much more interested in the general fact that Cameron doesn’t keep promises and hence looks like a standard untrustworthy politician rather than the specific issue over which the promise was broken.

    Makes sense.

  39. It’s probably not unreasonable to assume any expected shifts in party fortunes from the Budget would be expected to come not from the population sitting down and watching it live and in full, but from the way it is reported and spun by the media collectively.

    So its interesting to look at the front page headlines of all today’s dailies to pick up the general impression the passing and uncommitted members of the public would get of yesterday’s announcements.

    The non and anti Tory papers, few as they are, all have variations on the theme of safe pair of hands, steady as she goes, nothing to see here – please move along. General impression – nothing dramatic or bad happened yesterday.

    The much more numerous pro Tory press, more significantly all fall into one of two camps.
    They all either go with a palpable sense of frustration and anger that the chancellor announced nothing newly bad (General imression – again, there was no new bad news to get riled up about) OR they’ve gone for how he is villainously soaking the rich to appease the masses and/or bribing us “all” to win an election (general impression – he’s in some way given us all something yesterday and made the fat cats pay more)

    The spin – that its cynical or the politics of envy or election buying I would think would only play well with the committed conservatives. The impression of hte budget itself for the non political is that yesterday was either uneventful or involved goodies and giveaways.

    Its very hard to imagine how this collective impression would cause any movement in the polls, least of all from would be labour voters towards the conservative party.

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