There are two new polls out tonight. Firstly tonight’s voting intention figures in YouGov’s Daily poll for the Sun are CON 37%(+1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 18%(-2). The lead remains at 4 points, and there is a conspicuous lack of impact from the fake lobbyist sting.

Secondly there is a new Ipsos MORI poll in tomorrow’s Mirror. Their topline figures, with changes from a month ago, are CON 35%(-2), LAB 30%(-2), LDEM 21%(+2). The Conservative lead is unchanged, but both main parties are down and the Lib Dems (and presumably others) are up. I don’t have dates for the MORI poll yet, so I’m not sure how the timing relates to the BA strike or the lobbying row.


192 Responses to “New YouGov and MORI polls”

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  1. @Howard,

    Silim go bhfuil se iontach go holc….. we do well to speak the colonial tongue…. if it comes with a brogue- sure don’t your women love it!

    Regarding the gay rights issue, Britian has moved very far to alleviate most of the impediemnts to gay people. My favorite nightclud is a gay bar and i think the majority of the clientele are probably straight. I think the gay community will think it was fair game of cameron to give an interview on gay issues so close to the election. I dont think gay voters will punish him for Lithuanians track record on homophobia..

  2. @ MIKE N. Re: performance during GE campaign. Yep, and this can’t do his confidence any good ahead of the debates either – possibly more importantly!?

  3. Re: Cameron gay gaffe

    It’s not what his umming and ahing exposed about differing Tory views about homosexual rights that was so revealing but the schism that it again exposed on EUROPE. This is the issue of vastly more importance to the electorate – and I say this as a gay man – than gay rights.

    And this gaffe got him right where it hurt – right in the middle of his liberal appearance and reactionary policy. He cannot on the one hand claim to have changed the party to more liberal social values whilst at the the same time insisting that his MEPs form a new alliance with the most right wing parties in Europe.

    He is trying to please both the left and right of his party – and the electorate – and in the end pleasing no-one. That is why he was so flummuxed – he realised he was tying himself up in knots and couldn’t continue.

    This all plays to the Labour poster campaign – CameraON, CameraOFF and so could be given more mileage.

    It is the facing two ways that is doing the damage to his poll numbers. It is since the withdrawal of the cast iron guarantee on Europe that the Tory % has steadily declined.

  4. Campaigning
    Funnily enough just received a Tory newspaper. Reason is they sent it by Royal Mail because they have nobody to deliver it otherwise (and we are in a LD /Con marginal). We have had one a month back that was ‘delivered ‘ but that must have been by an ‘out of towner’ because the local Cons know we are LD and a waste of walking up a long driveway.
    AW’s web site reference has a question on it after the article that does beg putting – what sort of comms have they received?

  5. @Woodsman,

    Europe is not very important to the electorate… only 2% in a recent poll deemed it th emost important issue

    that raisl agaisnt 22% who selected immigration…

    the EU constitution has killed europe as an issue for the foresseable future… and judging by the performance of Ashton we have little fear of an EU superstate any time soon (Sorry Peter)

  6. Honestly I have never read such a bloody load of rubbish in all my life. Talk about partisanship gone berserk. I refer of course to that organ of required study for all, The Gay Times. Just because Lewis Hamilton has one poor race he is a hopeless driver, just because Cameron was less than inspiring on the Gay Times thing, he is no good on TV. As I said to some guy yesterday, its the one thing he is good at, as the forthcoming debates will prove to Browns cost. If some of you people want somthing to occupy your mind for half an hour, go onto PB and study the party leader ratings. BTW, I did not see the Gay Times programme or whatever it was, since like a few blokes I know, I have this prediliction towards females. Is that still legal?

  7. @ Mark Senior – – New Harris Poll is indeed a strange one and not so much because its put the Tories on 35% and Labour back on a very low 28% BUT it is the ‘others’ at 20% !!!

    Just what is going on out there!

  8. @Eoin

    Come on Eoin – how come you highlight the Tories on a ‘low’ of 35% (not good i must admit) BUT strange how you don’t mention Labour on a VERY poor 28%

    I think ALL the three main parties should be worried about this one!

  9. @ Eoin

    I was saying it was far more relevant an issue than gay rights not that it was the most important issue. And anyway it IS the most important issue for the 5 or 6 % who are potentially voting for UKIP. Surely the Tories would like that 5 or 6% back?

  10. I anticipate UKIP will get more like 3%. I would say their views are a hodge podge of anti-EU anti-Immigration anti-Human Rights act….

    Likewise the Greens, you could not say that every greens number one issue is the environment…
    I accept fully that these are weird statisitcs and that you think a former single issue party would be consumed by that issue alone…

    just one of the quirks of the electorate… soem UKIP may even join because they don’t think the Tories are right wing enough but the don’t want to go as far as BNP.

    My head of Dept was one such chap … a Nottignham fella he hated multi-culturalism but did not want to be called a racist since he taught in a very multi-cultural school so UKIP was a respectable haven… (only one example, i know the fruitlessness of that)

  11. @Woodsman,

    I would say neither issue is that important….. bu ti take your point that the “cast iron” gaffe is probably more costly than the “lithuanian” gaffe

  12. So people can make up their own minds, here is a link to the interview:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/24/david-cameron-stumbles-gay-rights

  13. My point is that Europe is still a very important issue for the Tory party – perhaps more so than for the electorate as a whole – they are seen to be tying themselves up in knots about is and this was evidenced in DC’S collapse last night.

  14. Roland
    They’ve caught you off -guard – it was a C4 current affairs item. The point at issue is what effect the repetition of clips will have on:
    people who don’t like indecisiveness in a PM (dither?)
    gays and liberal minds
    those who hoped Dc would counter right wingers in his party

    As I say, it only matters if it’s splurged – if buried by the Budget, for example, that’s the end of that.

  15. Roland – it’s the tongue-tied “can we stop please?” that made it car crash TV at its most gruesome. A must-see and nothing to do with the actual subject (which was Tories in Europe).

    It’s still on the C4 website

  16. Harris has CON at 35% – but LAB is low too. Below 30% is not a good result.

    I wonder if Anthony will do a thread about it…

  17. @Mark Johnson

    “Blimey can’t some of you lot sleep?”

    Don’t worry, I’m posting from work (presumably like everyone else!), but I’m not in the UK!

    “When you make the comment of slipping back into the ’same old Tories’ label surely the same could be levelled at the Labour party under Brown”

    Possibly, but my point was that it was turning off the floating voters. I don’t think Brown had any floating voters to turn off.

  18. @ ROLAND
    “Honestly I have never read such a bloody load of rubbish in all my life. Talk about partisanship gone berserk”

    That’s the way it is here now ROLAND.

    It would be a change to see GB having the guts to face interviews like that , or DC’s Lewisham College Deptford encounter.

    Re . The Gy Times thing, our febrile friends have omitted to mention DC’s Press Conference on 23rd. GT asked if he had now had time to find the reason for the Tory MEPs abstention on a vote on the “Lithuanian Section 28”? . He said he had & the reason was that “Tory MEPs do not vote on matters involving the internal politics of member states.”
    There was no follow up question.

    The discussion on leaflets here has been interesting too ROLAND-no mention of the naughty lies in Labour leaflets, which DC mentioned at the Press Conference……when I say mentioned, I mean got bloody cross about.

    He should do that more often.

  19. AW – that’s not really fair. Just because you know I AM a Labour activist, I’ve read accounts in the Times and the Guardian of the two campaigns that say exactly what I said. Labour started earlier, focussed more on e-campaigning and emphasised their record. Fact.

    Roland – the interview was on Channel 4 News and it is spectacularly awful, you really should watch it and then comment

  20. @HOWARD
    I am not off guard at all mate, I merely think that a bit of chat about GB being on a 60% negative for personal popularity, along with M Smithsons narrative might be more interesting and indeed more cogent to this site.
    Furthermore, a poster above mentions the latest Harris/Metro poll.
    con 37
    lab 29
    LD 18
    In addittion, 66% of Labour voters will vote Labour again, whilst 86% of Tories will vote Tory again. This from 05 of course.
    These issues which are about POLLING are IMHO more fitting on the site than title tattle about an over noisy protest group.

  21. I posted a link to the interview and it has now got through moderation. It is a few messages ago, posted at 10.45am

  22. Will a very short election period favour Labour or the Tories?

    I think it is possible Brown could be planning a very short election period, where he can quickly spell out Labours plans and prevent the Tories from using weeks of expensive advertising. So far we have not heard much of the Tories plans, so a short election period, may make them appear very chaotic in the way they present their manifesto. If they make mistakes in their presentation, which they have done over recent months, Labour will pounce on this

  23. The importance of DC blunder on Ch 4 is that is one of a series of slips that have been happening for many many months in CON campaign, hence the drop in CON % over last year.

    GB’s steady as you go I’m manoevering over a bumpy road and taking the right path theme seems to have been successful if not spectacular. His formidable store of facts with labour pluses to the fore in his head might be a plus in the debates.

    DC on Ch 4 was a disaster he ought to have been able to get out of the fix he was in instead of digging deeper. But as have been said above budget will obscure it.

  24. I think the Gay Times interview could have an impact, because Cameron is projecting an image & that interview will have damaged his image.

  25. @ ROLAND

    I thought Harris was 35% CON & 28% LAB; not 37% & 29%.

  26. Furthermore does the above Harris poll point to Tory melt down as suggested earlier by Eoin Clarke? Particularly when Browns personal rating is considered. Mike Smithson has a view which is interesting regarding the importance of party leader popularity.
    If some of this sites Labour supporters bothered to read it they might move their minds from trivia.

  27. “His formidable store of facts with labour pluses to the fore ”

    ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-)

  28. @AMBER
    Click on metro harris poll. I just did.

  29. It is absolutely amazing and so considerate the concern shown by Labour supporters for the welfare and future of the Conservative Party.

    Perhaps with Labour trailling in the polls their concern might be better employed working out why the Labour Party after 13 years of social engineering and doing what ‘is right’ for the UK are not liked by the vast majority of the electorate?

    With yesterdays London poll result (still not taking in to account ‘likelyhood to vote’) showing an unamended Conservative lead of 8% which in my conservative estimation gives an amended lead of 9.5% the righting is on the wall for Labour. It is no doubt easier for Labour supporters to try and talk-down the Conservative Party than it is for them to talk-up the Labour Party.

    If I remember rightly did the latest polls not show that DC had increased his popularity with the public ( I think the figure was +10) whilst that of GB was down (again I think the figure is now -28).

    It would seem that Labour are making the same mistake / falling into the same trap as the Republicans did during the last US General Election. There the Republicans tried to convince people of the inexperience of Obama, the splits in the Democratic Party, the nievity of wanting change. The Republicans initially had some success, but like Labour they mistimed their assault using this tactic.

    I as a Conservative supporter would like to thank all the Labour posters for their concern, but I would like to re-assure them to stop worrying about us, we are content, we are healthy, we are not prone to panic, and we have absolute faith that come May 7th this country will have a new PM and he will be DC.

    Now the budget is only hours away, and I am sure like me others are poised with their programs set on their computers to start immediate analysis of the announcements as they come through. It will be interesting to see if Darling goes back on his word and starts cutting the government budget immediately or keeps to GB’s word and delays cuts until sometime in the future? Mandelson has already said that taxes will have to rise ‘in 2011’!

    The real GE campaigning starts as from today.

  30. @ ROLAND

    “Furthermore does the above Harris poll point to Tory melt down”

    Yes-they all do-it’s mandatory now ROLAND ;-)

  31. @ Roland – These issues which are about POLLING are IMHO more fitting on the site than title tattle about an over noisy protest group.

    There has been no tittle tattle from no protest group – we have been discussing possible reasons for the decline in DC’s and the Tory lead. viz
    Mori today showing Cameron’s rating for approval vs disapproval is at 42-42 is the first non-positive number since February 2008.

  32. Roland – have you seen the DC footage? Can you imagine the uproar if GB had said “Can we stop please?”

    I suspect your attitude is down to the notion that DC’s image has suffered since the back-away over Lisbon, that the media are being unfair by not editing out his pleas to stop the interview.

  33. “Mori today showing Cameron’s rating for approval vs disapproval is at 42-42 is the first non-positive number since February 2008.”

    And what was Brown’s WOODSMAN?

  34. Hi Amber

    It is 35/28/17

    Polls are moving around a bit – but the gap is steady (ish)
    Budget suspense & Dave gaff is too much for me to cope ;-)

  35. Reportedly, AD WILL downgrade his debt forecast today (Reuters) which I of course hope will be the main focus of news report.
    Al j – I too am finding it all a bit much!!!

  36. @AL J
    My keyboard skills are not the greatest but, having gone to METRO/HARRIS poll which has todays date the figures are as I have quoted EG C37 L29 ECT. So where ar you getting yours from?

  37. Al J
    OK cancel that, they are still showing a fortnight old poll on todays date.

    Apologies Amber the the 35 28 is correct today. Hung parliament Tories about 40 seats more than Labour.

  38. Sue
    BBC news said last night – he can downgrade his debt forecast by as much as £20 billion – some good news and Robert Preston says Darling can make something of returns we will get – since bailing out the banks.
    I hope it’s a game changer ;-)

    @Roland – Anthony has a new thread -the figures are there.

  39. Re: Cameron’s ‘gay times’ interview. It’s got nothing at all to do with what subject the interview was about but the conduct/ performance of someone who could be performing as this countries PM on the world stage. If he loses it in a relatively minor interview ( no offense to the ‘Gay times’.) then do we really want him representing this country in potentially hard-ball tough negotiations if he’s likely to crack-up!? It’s no good saying it was just one interview – he lost the plot – A PM can’t afford that luxury?

  40. Once again, both YouGov and MORI polls point to a Labour govt being re-elected. YouGov gives Labour 26 more seats than the Tories and 25 sort of an overall majority, MORI gives Labour 17 more seats than the Tories and Labour short by 17.

    Why does everyone still headline such polls TORY LEAD … when the Tories have no lead at all where it counts – in seats.

  41. It’s interesting. A few months ago the Tories were home and dry by a mile. The sheer possibility that it could be remotely close is remarkable and maybe why Cameron is getting the ‘wobbles’. And he definately is. Just saw him make some stupid reference to a ‘Harry Potter’ character ( Volder..something!?) in reference to Alistair Darling during his rather ranting budget reply. If he’s not careful he could be quoting from another famous film character in 6 weeks time and be saying, ‘I’ll be back!!?’

  42. Not sure, but can I claim to be half-right in my prediction that Mr. Darling kind-of postponed the petrol duty rise? I think he staggered it didn’t he?

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